Zurich Classic - Final Bets and Models

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Apr 24, 2025

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Final Models

Champ’s Top 10 + Player Deep Dives

Rory McIlroy / Shane Lowry
Sepp Straka / Brice Garnett
Collin Morikawa / Kurt Kitayama
Rico Hoey / Sam Ryder
Wyndham Clark / Taylor Moore
Robert MacIntyre / Thomas Detry
Ryan Gerard / Danny Walker
Ryo Histsune / Takumi Kanaya
Nick Taylor / Adam Hadwin
Hayden Springer / Nate Lashley

Rory McIlroy / Shane Lowry
Betting Odds: +350 (HardRock)
Top 75% in field across all key stats
Top 25% in field in 18 out of 23 key stats
Rory: 5/5 OTT, 4/5 APP, 4/5 ARD, 3/5 PUTT
Shane: 3/5 OTT, 4/5 APP, 5/5 ARD, 3/5 PUTT
Top Zurich Finishes: 1,1,13,28
Top Comp Finishes: 1,2,2,,3,4,5,11,13,13
Insights:
Defending champions and pure class of the field. First start for Rory after the Grand Slam and should be another fun, successful week for the Irish lads. Parlay away to boost odds and no reason to think they aren’t within an arms length on Sunday.

Sepp Straka / Brice Garnett
Betting Odds: +3000 (HardRock)
Top 75% in field across all key stats
Top 25% in field in 14 out of 23 key stats
Sepp: 4/5 OTT, 5/5 APP, 1/5 ARD, 2/5 PUTT
Brice: 3/5 OTT, 2/5 APP, 2/5 ARD, 3/5 PUTT
Top Zurich Finishes: 4,11,11,11,29
Top Comp Finishes: 1,1,5,5,7,11,11,11,11,25
Insights:
Wanted more from Sepp the first two days at Heritage, but played nicely on weekend and decent Top 13 finish (70-70-67-67). Brice with rollercoaster (up, down, up) stats when looking at strokes gained, but like Sepp does have a win on a comp course so they do deserve respect as a team and not to be counted out quickly if they are in the mix on Sunday. 30/1 aren’t the worst odds pre-tourney, but more of a team I would live bet.

Collin Morikawa / Kurt Kitayama
Betting Odds: +1400 (HardRock)
Top 75% in field across all key stats
Top 25% in field in 15 out of 23 key stats
Collin: 5/5 OTT, 5/5 APP, 3/5 ARD, 2/5 PUTT
Kurt: 4/5 OTT, 1/5 APP, 2/5 ARD, 2/5 PUTT
Top Zurich Finishes: 19,23,23,29,38
Top Comp Finishes: 1,3,5,7,16,22
Insights:
Collin now with three straight losses on the greens and back to back around while game is currently elite in OTT and APP categories. Doesn’t have great history here and plays it more than you would think. Looking for first win since 2023 ZOZO. Kurt lost over 2 strokes on greens 2 of his last 7 starts and losing 4 straight with his irons is beyond worrisome. Odds don’t merit current state and more based if their A games show up, currently playing with C- as a team.

Rico Hoey / Sam Ryder
Betting Odds: +5000 (HardRock)
Top 75% in field across all key stats
Top 25% in field in 12 out of 23 key stats
Rico: 3/4 OTT, 3/4 APP, 3/4 ARD, 1/4 PUTT
Sam: 2/5 OTT, 2/5 APP, 1/5 ARD, 5/5 PUTT
Top Zurich Finishes: 3,17,26,MC
Top Comp Finishes: 7,8,9,21,22,25,56
Insights:
Rico with 2 T12 finishes in his last 3 starts. Bomber who is known to go low but his putter is a concern. He will welcome Sam to the team as he has only lost ONCE in TEN starts this season. Unfortunately, Sam losing strokes in other parts of the game so I would bank of this team with quick start potential but tough to trust over 72.

Wyndham Clark / Taylor Moore
Betting Odds: +2250 (HardRock)
Top 75% in field across all key stats
Top 25% in field in 12 out of 23 key stats
Wyndham: 4/5 OTT, 4/5 APP, 4/5 ARD, 2/5 PUTT
Taylor: 4/5 OTT, 1/5 APP, 3/5 ARD, 4/5 PUTT
Top Zurich Finishes: 3,4,4,10,17
Top Comp Finishes: 7,11,11,12,16,21,25
Insights:
Rollercoaster stats for Wyndham this year and only 1 Top 5 finish to show for it. Putted brillantly in 2 of his last 3 starts gives me hope another strong finish is in store for the US Open champ. Add in a 3rd here in 2023 with Beau Hossler, no reason to think Wyndham can’t replicate the feat with another partner. That same year Taylor Moore finished T4 with his partner Matthew NeSmith. Moore not in the greatest form at the minute (MC,33,42,34); however, with good history here along with more consisent stats, I could see this team contending with top page of leaderboard each day.

Robert MacIntyre / Thomas Detry
Betting Odds: +1750 (HardRock)
Top 75% in field across all key stats
Top 25% in field in 11 out of 23 key stats
Bobby Mac: 4/5 OTT, 2/5 APP, 2/5 ARD, 2/5 PUTT
Thomas: 2/5 OTT, 3/5 APP, 2/5 ARD, 2/5 PUTT
Top Zurich Finishes: 8,8,13,MC
Top Comp Finishes: 8,13,51,60
Insights:
Ever since the public decided to back Bobby Mac at Augusta, he has gone MC/66 in his last 2 starts with absolute dreadful iron and putter play. Detry hasn’t come back to form since his 1st PGA Tour Win at WMPO. Should feel more relaxed this week, but definitely not a profile you would expect to pop. The team did play together here last year in route to a T8 and 1 shot off FRL. Struggled in alternate shot and I could see that being the downfall this week as it will be for a lot of teams this week.

Ryan Gerard / Danny Walker
Betting Odds: +6000 (HardRock)
Top 75% in field across all key stats
Top 25% in field in 10 out of 23 key stats
Ryan: 3/5 OTT, 3/5 APP, 2/5 ARD, 4/5 PUTT
Danny: 2/4 OTT, 3/4 APP, 2/4 ARD, 2/4 PUTT
Top Zurich Finishes: MC
Top Comp Finishes: 4,25
Insights:
Gerard with 2 Top 10s in his last 3 starts, but those have relied on the short game and putter over OTT and APP play. 4th at Honda shows the course should suit and probably his best chance for a PGA Tour win this season for a consistent member of my Top 10 Model. Walker, most known for his last minute arrival into the PLAYERS (finished T6), but proceeded to go MC-MC-MC and 31st last week at Corales. Wildcard team that could be a helpful pivot in DFS but more bust than boom I worry for this twosome.

Ryo Hisatsune / Takumi Kanaya
Betting Odds: +6000 (HardRock)
Top 75% in field across all key stats
Top 25% in field in 9 out of 23 key stats
Ryo: 2/5 OTT, 5/5 APP, 4/5 ARD, 4/5 PUTT
Takumi: 2/3 OTT, 0/3 APP, 1/3 ARD, 1/3 PUTT
Top Zurich Finishes: DEBUT, DEBUT
Top Comp Finishes: 6,7,12,18,31,34
Insights:
Ryo with one of the best 4 start stretch in this field (18,5,47,4). Not the flashiest of stats but consistent gains speak loudly. It is DEBUT for him at TPC Louisana but ZOZO (Japan) link should suit and also keep him in mind for NEXT WEEK at CJ CUP BYRON NELSON. As much as I applaud Ryo’s form, Takumi not so good (MC-MC-MC-MC) and so much red screams Runnnn.

Nick Taylor / Adam Hadwin
Betting Odds: +3000 (HardRock)
Top 75% in field across all key stats
Top 25% in field in 7 out of 23 key stats
Nick: 4/5 OTT, 1/5 APP, 4/5 ARD, 2/5 PUTT
Adam: 2/5 OTT, 2/5 APP, 2/5 ARD, 3/5 PUTT
Top Zurich Finishes: 2,2,9,10,10,13,36,36
Top Comp Finishes: 5,8,16,21,27,30,31
Insights:
BDN has lost his approach game (losing in 4 straight) but gained in back to back on the greens. If you can predict those lining up, bet Nick Taylor no limit on odds. Adam on a rollercoaster of all rollercoasters and a Top 10 along with 3 MC shows just how erratic his game. Rather sub out Hadwin for Conners and I could be talked into that Canadian team or a Mac Hughes / Conners team.

Hayden Springer / Nate Lashley
Betting Odds: +7500 (HardRock)
Top 75% in field across all key stats
Top 25% in field in 2 out of 23 key stats
Hayden: 2/2 OTT, 2/2 APP, 1/2 ARD, 2/2 PUTT
Nate: 2/4 OTT, 3/4 APP, 2/4 ARD, 3/4 PUTT
Top Zurich Finishes: 15,38,MC
Top Comp Finishes: 3,3,7,8,16,34,36
Insights:
Hayden a true bomber who I bet last week (finished T41) but the stats are there and will continue to play him on bomber/birdie fests (PRO, Write him in for John Deere, 7th last year). Nasty Nate’s stats are much better recently and the results show it (53-12-27-64-MC-MC-MC-MC-WD-MC). Strong comps and contiously play here make this team a buy and also keep eye on Nate this week individually with his success around TPC Craig Ranch next week could be a nice longshot there as well if the stats continue to progress.

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Final Bets

Champ’s Crew @Champs311 on X

WIN
Wyndham Clark / Taylor Moore +2475 - 2u
Nicolai Hojgaard / Rasmus Hojgaard +2500 - 2u (BONUS BET)
Hayden Springer / Nate Lashley +7500 - 0.65u

First Round Leader
Nicolai Hojgaard / Rasmus Hojgaard +3000 - 1u
Wyndham Clark / Taylor Moore +3000 - 1u
Rico Hoey / Sam Ryder +4000 - 0.75u
Hayden Springer / Nate Lashley +5000 - 0.60u

Hat Tip (Players I think can win but odds keep me off)
Rory McIlroy / Shane Lowry, Keith Mitchell / JT Poston

Champ vs Sammy One-and-Done Contest

PLAYERS Championship: Champ Winner (Morikawa vs Thomas) +$520,000
Valspar Championship: Sammy Winner (Fleetwood vs Zalatoris) +$104,000
Houston Open: Champ Winner (Thompson vs M. Kim) +$16,014
Valero Texas Open: Champ Winner (Cantlay vs Bradley) +$23,857
The Masters Tournament: Sammy Winner (McIlroy vs Scheffler) +$3,192,000
RBC Heritage: Champ Winner (Burns vs Day) +$316,000
Zurich Classic: N/A - returns next week
Sammy leads by $2,420,129