WM Phoenix Open
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Last Week’s Recap
Iconic Course, Iconic Champion!
Rory McIlroy held off a host of players on the front nine Sunday before a dominant -5 back nine, including an eagle on the Par 5 14th, to capture his 27th PGA Tour victory. With such an impressive display on Sunday, clubhouse patrons are eager to see if he can complete the Career Grand Slam at Augusta National (65 days and counting!).
Condolences to clubhouse patrons who endured any of the following Sunday sweats: Sammy +7000 ticket on 54 hole leader Sepp Straka. Finishes T7.
Kevin built up a perfect parlay to get Justin Rose at +18000. Finishes T3.
Champ and Looney with Cam Davis tickets at +10000 and +13500. Finishes T5.
Thanks to a last minute audible by the Parlor Head Kevin, clubhouse selected Jason Day to take the place of Ludivg Aberg last week for One and Done. Jason finished T13 and cashed another six-figure paycheck, $368,500, for the contest. This week the players head to TPC Scottsdale for The Greatest Show on Grass!
Top Strokes Gained Leaders at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am via DataGolf.com
Sammy’s Patio Preview
Waste Management Phoenix Open TPC Scottsdale
Course/Tournament Info
Not a signature event, but a good field nonetheless
Cut 65 + ties
7,250-7,300 yards
Par 71 (Three Par 5’s)
Greens: Bent + Poa Overseed
7000+ sq ft
Slightly bigger greens than Tour average
Roll true and are flat
Water on play on 1/3 of holes
2 of most difficult 5 holes are Par 3s
#7 - 210+ yards
#12 - 190+ yards
Bogey rates of 18% or higher at P4 #2, P4 #11, P4 #14
2 of 3 Par 5’s have an eagle rate of more than 3.5%. Those holes play almost a half stroke under par on average.
#3 (550-575 yards)
#13 (550-575 yards)
Previous Winners / Tournament History
2024: Nick Taylor -21 playoff over Charley Hoffman
2023: Scottie Scheffler -19 2 shots over Nick Taylor
2022: Scottie Scheffler -16 playoff over Patrick Cantlay
2021: Brooks Koepka -19 1 shot over Xander Schauffele
Course history is very predictive here, some would argue it’s one of the stickiest course histories on Tour.
Top 20 players in Shots Gained: Total at TPC Scottsdale over last 5 years
(total number of rounds played):
Scottie Scheffler (16)
Justin Thomas (16)
Sahith Theegala (12)
Nick Taylor (12) 14.
Sam Burns (14) 15.
Jordan Spieth (16)
Matt Fitzpatrick (12)
Kurt Kitayama (8)
Hideki Matsuyama (16)
Si Woo Kim (16)
Andrew Novak (4)
Billy Horschel (16)
Sungjae Im (12)
KH Lee (14)
Taylor Moore (8)
Keith Mitchell (14)
17. Tom Hoge (12)
Maverick McNealy (5)
Wyndham Clark (14)
Charley Hoffman (14)
Players with a Top 15 finish in at least 2 of the last 3 WMPO:
Nick Taylor
Charley Hoffman
Scottie Scheffler
Sam Burns
Sahith Theegala
Jordan Spieth
Justin Thomas
Matt Fitzpatrick
Key StatsShots Gained: Tee-to-Green
Shots Gained: Ball Striking
Shots Gained: Short Game
Birdies or Better Gained
Driving Distance
Good Drives Gained
Par 4 Scoring
Par 5 Birdies or Better
Going for the Green - Hit Green Percentage
Bogey Avoidance
Scrambling
Shots Gained: TPC Scottsdale
Early Week Model Results (based on above stats) with Field Ranks
Names I’m circling for a Deep Dive
Scottie Scheffler
Justin Thomas
Hideki Matsuyama
Sam Burns
Sungjae Im
Lucas Glover
Nick Taylor
JT Poston
Kurt Kitayama
Maverick McNealy
Champ’s Cove
Similar Type Courses (Comps)
Southern Hills
Annandale
Bay Hill
Memorial Park
TPCs
Winner’s Pre Tournament Odds
1-50: 9
51-100: 5
100+: 1
Winner’s Shots Behind by Round
R1: 12/15 <= 5 (3/15 T25+)
R2: 10/15 <= 4 (12/15 T10)
R3: 11/15 <= 3 (10/15 T3)
Winner’s Lead-In Form
14/15 at least 1 Top 10 in last 4 starts
12/15 at least 2 Top 25 in last 4 starts
11/15 at least 1 Top 5 in last 4 starts
9/15 0 Missed Cuts last 4 starts
Champ’s Model
Green: Top 100 or better ranking this season
Red: Outside Top 125 ranking this season
Yellow: No Data Available
Field Rank
Green: Top 25% in Field
White: Middle 50% in Field
Red: Bottom 25% in Field
Yellow: No Data Available
Initial #WMPO Top 10
Sepp Straka
Gary Woodland
Scottie Scheffler
Bud Cauley
Robert MacIntyre
JJ Spaun
Lucas Glover
Matt Kuchar
Kris Ventura
Maverick McNealy
Check out Wednesday’s newsletter for Final Thoughts, Bets and DFS Tidbits!
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