Valspar Championship
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Luck of the Irish!
Rory was all over the headlines to start the week and it ended with him claiming his 2nd PLAYERS title. During a practice round, a patron heckled Rory for a poor shot and proceeded to take the heckler’s phone for a reason still undecided. Weather also played a major factor during the week with a 2 shot difference in morning vs afternoon scores on Thursday and causing the final round to be suspended and move to a Monday finish. Rory trailed J.J. Spaun (+10000) by 4 entering the final round (+650), but was able to catch him after a birdie-eagle start along with Spaun not playing his best even though he finished the week 1st in Tee to Green and led after Round 1, 2 and 3. Clubhouse golf clap to Sammy for his live bet on Rory Sunday morning (+820) and heartbreak for Champ who was on Spaun at +1750 after Round 1.
Valspar Championship Patio Preview
Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course)
Palm Harbor, FL
Par 71 - 7,352 yards
Not an elevated event, but stronger field than a good portion of non-elevated events
156 players
Top 65 + Ties make cut
Greens: Poa Trivialis overseed
Average to small greens
About 6,000 sq ft
3-putts inside 5 feet are frequent here
70+ bunkers
Water in play on 9 holes
It is difficult to hit fairways here
Average fairway width: 20 yards
Tree-lined
Driving Accuracy and Greens in Regulation well below PGA Tour average here
One of, if not the lowest birdie or better percentage on Tour year after year
Five Par 3s
Average distance over 200 yards
2 of hardest 4 holes (Holes 8 & 13)
Bogey rate around 20%
Nine Par 4s
Only 2 have a birdie rate north of 15%
7 have bogey rate of greater than 17%
Hardest hole - #16
Birdie rate sub 9%
Bogey rate 23%+
Double rate nearly 5%
Four Par 5s
4 easiest holes
3 of 4 have birdie rate north of 34%
Hole 1 birdie rate almost 47%
Hole 5 = 605 yards
Lowest birdie rate of P5s (~23%)
15% bogey rate
“The Snake Pit”
Holes 16, 17, 18
All 3 holes sub 13% birdie rate and at least 15% bogey rate
Previous Winners
2024: Peter Malnati (-12) 2 strokes over Cam Young
2023: Taylor Moore (-10) 1 stroke over Adam Schenk
2022: Sam Burns (-17) playoff over Davis Riley
2021: Sam Burns (-17) 3 strokes over Keegan Bradley
Odds
1-25: 5
26-50: 2
51-100: 3
101+: 4
Position By Round
R1: 12/14 trailed by 3+ shots of lead
R2: 9/14 within 3 shots of lead
R3: 13/14 within 3 shots of lead
FORM
13/14 Top 20 finish in last 4 starts
10/14 Top 10 finish in last 4 starts
3/14 Top 10 in their last start
3/14 Missed Cut in last 2 starts
First Round Leader Tee Split*
A 11/14
P 7/14
Sammy’s Early Week Model
Not filtered for scoring difficulty or any other variables outside of the greens surface for putting stats. Check out the Wednesday newsletter for the final model, which will have more advanced filters. The purpose of the early-week model is to be utilized as a tool that helps narrow your search of players to bet/use in DFS/pick in one-and-done.
Champ’s Model
Based on Current Season, Non-Filtered Season Stats
Green: Top 100 or better ranking this season
Red: Outside Top 125 ranking this season
Yellow: No Data Available
Model Based on Field Rank
Green: Top 25% in Field
White: Middle 50% in Field
Red: Bottom 25% in Field
Yellow: No Data Available
Initial #ValsparChamp Top 10
Sepp Straka
Alex Smalley
Nicolai Hojgaard
Kevin Roy
Ben Kohles
Will Zalatoris
Joel Dahmen
Ryan Gerard
Kris Ventura
Ben Griffi
Check out Wednesday’s newsletter for Final Models, Bets and Daily Fantasy Sports Tidbits!
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