Valero Texas Open
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Houston Cooks Up a Feast!
The public muni, Memorial Park, put on a show for the fans all week. As scores ranged from tying course records (R2 Scheffler, R4 Woodland & Valimaki) to plenty of 75s and higher over the course of the week, it was Min Wooooooo Lee who earned his 1st PGA Tour victory (5th First-Time Winner this season in 13 events). Lee led by 4 to start the day and by 4 with 5 holes to go, but after a big slice on 16 that found water the result was still in doubt. Scottie Scheffler after making a turkey (3 birdies in a row) had a great chance to tie the lead from 23 feet but ended up missing. Min Woo made a good bogey on the 16th and only needed a par on the 72nd to secure the win.
Those keeping track in the clubhouse, Scottie heads to Augusta (ONE WEEK AWAY!!) looking for a 3rd green jacket without a win on the season. Rory McIlroy backers should be pleased with his weekend scores of 65-64 in his final prep before aiming for the career Grand Slam.
Clubhouse patrons had a brutal four days from the gambling gods. Victor Perez (+10000) missed out on the first round lead by a stroke. Scheffler, backed by Champ and Sammy, led after 36 holes and was the odds on favorite by oddsmakers at the half way mark, finished T2 1 stroke behind. For Champ, his hopes were dashed Friday Night as Michigan State took down Ole Miss (73-70) to reach the Elite 8. Credit to Sammy for picking Min Woo Lee in his Top 20 parlay, but unfortunately didn’t reach the window due to Si Woo Kim missing the cut. Champ and Sammy will look to get back on the winning track this week for the last stop in Texas before Augusta.
Valero Texas Open Patio Preview
TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course)
Not an elevated event
156 players, Top 65 & ties make cut
Greg Norman design (with Sergio Garcia influence)
One of the longer-standing PGA Tour venues
Last chance for golfers to play way into Masters
Top 50 world ranking or win PGA event
Par 72, 7,400+ yards
Greens: Poa Trivialis (bermuda has not grown in yet)
Just under 6,500 sq ft average green size
Lower-than-average GIR rate
Green comps: TPC Scottsdale, TPC Sawgrass, Innisbrook
60+ bunkers
Fairways on the narrow side
Missing fairway in rough is more than manageable
Aforementioned lower-than-average GIR rate = Around-the-Green necessities
Expect a majority of the field to lay up to <=100 yards and use wedges into greens
Going-for-green rate almost 15% lower than Tour Average here
4 Par 3s: 171 - 241 yards
#13 = 1 of 3 most difficult holes on course
10 Par 4s: 347-481 yards
5 of the 6 most difficult holes on course
#17 - 2nd easiest on course (33%+ birdie rate)
4 Par 5s: 553-604
#14 - only Par 5 with higher than a 33% birdie rate (44.8%)
Driver usage slightly above PGA Tour average
Potential Weather on Friday, recommend waiting to Wednesday before final bets
Previous Winners
2024: Akshay Bhatia (-20) in playoff over Denny McCarthy
2023: Corey Conners (-15), 1 stroke over Sam Stevens
2022: JJ Spaun (-13), 2 strokes over Matt Jones and Matt Kuchar
2021: Jordan Spieth (-18), 2 strokes over Charley Hoffman
Key Stats
Shots Gained: Tee-to-Green
Shots Gained: Ball-Striking
Shots Gained: Around-the-Green
Shots Gained: Putting (Poa Trivialis)
Total Driving
Good Drive%
Distance from Edge of Fairway
Approach: 50-100
Approach: 150-200
Scrambling
Par 4 scoring
Par 5 BOB%
3-putt avoidance (Poa Trivialis)
Birdie or Better%
Bogey Avoidance
Sammy’s Early Week Model
Check out the Wednesday newsletter for the final model, which will have more advanced filters. The purpose of the early-week model is to be utilized as a tool that helps narrow your search of players to bet/use in DFS/pick in one-and-done.
Champ’s Model
Based on Current Season, Non-Filtered Season Stats
Green: Top 100 or better ranking this season
Red: Outside Top 125 ranking this season
Yellow: No Data Available
Model Based on Field Rank
Green: Top 25% in Field
White: Middle 50% in Field
Red: Bottom 25% in Field
Yellow: No Data Available
Initial #ValeroTexasOpen Top 10
Daniel Berger
Hideki Matsuyama
Patrick Cantlay
Corey Conners
Ryan Gerard
Denny McCarthy
Charley Hoffman
Tommy Fleetwood
Si Woo Kim
Ben Griffin
Check out Wednesday’s newsletter for Final Models, Bets and Insights!
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