Truist Championship - Final Bets, Models and Notes (includes Myrtle Beach picks and notes)
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Scorecard
Weather Forecast
Champ’s Top 10
Russell Henley
J.J. Spaun
Collin Morikawa
Ryan Gerard
Sepp Straka
Justin Thomas
Hideki Matsuyama
Nick Taylor
Robert MacIntyre
Lucas Glover
Sammy’s Top 20
Final Bets
Sammy’s Selections - @SammyAvBets
Win
Jordan Spieth +2500 - 1.2u
Champ’s Crew - @Champs311
Win
Jordan Spieth +2500 - 2.1u
Viktor Hovland +2500 - 2.1u
Tony Finau +7500 - 0.70u
FRL
Jordan Spieth +3000 - 1u
Tony Finau +6000 - 0.50u
Lucas Glover +6000 - 0.50u
Hat Tip
Rory / Collin / JT
Myrtle Beach Classic
Scorecard
Weather Forecast
Champ’s Top 10 w/ Player Deep Dives
Alex Smalley
Doug Ghim
Kevin Roy
Chris Goetterup
Alejandro Tosti
Joel Dahmen
Hayden Springer
Rico Hoey
Kevin Yu
Max McGreevy
Alex Smalley
Betting Odds: +3000
Top 75%: exclude BOB 175200
Notable Top 25%: TG, OTT, GIR, BS, ARD, SCR, PUTT, BOB, BA, P4
SG GAINS: 3/5 OTT, 2/5 APP, 2/5 ARRD, 4/5 PUTT
FORM: 39,MC,63,MC
Top Myrtle Finish: 20 (68-65-68-72)
Top Comp Finishes: 4,15,43
Insights: Stats check out but recent form is the concern. 3 out of 4 in 60s at Nelson last week says game is there and with 3 out of 4 here last year - his game projects nicely. Is looking for first Top 5 of season but finished 2nd at the Deere in 2023, so does have some experience under the gun on Sunday. Odds aren’t pleasant but expectation is for him to be first page on Sunday.
Doug Ghim
Betting Odds: +5000
Top 75%: exclude PUTT
Notable Top 25%: TG, APP, GIR, PROX, ARD, P3
SG GAINS: 2/4 OTT, ¾ APP, 4/5 ARD, 1/12 PUTT (Valspar)
FORM: 33,MC,18,MC
Top Myrtle Finish: Debut
Top Comp Finishes: 14,17,47,72
Insights: Here I like bombers and approach, but also those who can putt. Yes, there are shades of green with approach play but not gaining more than ½ shot to field on approach in last 6 starts along with putrid putting and no course history to fall back on. It is a tough sell for Dougie this week on a course requiring 4 mid 60s to compete.
Kevin Roy
Betting Odds: +6000
Top 75%: exclude BOB 175200
Notable Top 25%: TG, OTT, GIR, PROX, BA, P4
SG GAINS: ¾ OTT, 1/5 APP, 2/6 ARD, 1/7 PUTT (last week)
FORM: 15,MC,31,40
Top Myrtle Finish: Debut
Top Comp Finishes: MC,MC,MC,MC
Insights: Stats signal a player with a solid January - March. However, massive gain for him with putter last week (+1.12 along with gains in OTT and APP) could show he is trending. No course history and bad comps are a concern along with 0 wins that I can track based on datagolf; however, I could see FRL and if you can get decent odds, a dart throw for a player who is known to fill up the stat gains.
Chris Gotterup
Betting Odds: +2500
Top 75%: exclude 150175, 200+, BOB 150175
Notable Top 25%: DD, GIR, BS, SCR, BOB, BA, P3, P4
SG GAINS: 4/4 OTT (massive last 2), 3/5 APP (loss last 2), 3/5 ARD (gain last 2), PUTT 2/6
FORM: 15,12,18,MC
Top Myrtle Finish: Defending Champ (66-64-65-67)
Top Comp Finishes: 18,51,57
Insights: 64 on Sunday at Nelson along with massive gains OTT tell me the Gotterup could be up to the challenge of defending this week. In his win, his SG were -0.16 OTT, +1.25 APP, +0.75 ARD, +1.8PUTT. I don’t see him gaining that much with putter this week; however, OTT will improve. Question will be approach game. Boom bust potential with all pressure of defending and responsibilities but could be home of good vibes. Choose wisely.
Alejandro Tosti
Betting Odds: +5000
Top 75%: exclude PUTT, BOB175200
Notable Top 25%: TG, OTT, DD, 17500, ARD, BOB, P4
SG GAINS: ¾ OTT, 5/6 APP (-1.6 last week), 5/5 ARD, 1/5 PUTT (3 of 5 lost 1.16 or more)
FORM: 67,MC,2,12,5
Top Myrtle Finish: 63 (65-73-71-74)
Top Comp Finishes: 2,5,MC
Insights: Tough to gauge Tosti on outside, let alone on the inside this week. 65 in Round 1 last year off of b2b MC at Nelson and Zurich show he doesn’t need the form to pop here. Willing to write off last week’s app performance, but will need the putter to cooperate this week or MC could be closer than a first page sighting. Last year R1 65 ranked +1.78 APP, +2.7PUTT, EVEN OTT, ARD.
Joel Dahmen
Betting Odds: +5000
Top 75%: exclude BOB 150175
Notable Top 25%: TG, OTT, APP, BS, SCR, BA, P4
SG GAINS: ¾ putt (-1 LAST WEEK), 2/4 ARD, 2/4 APP, 4/4 OTT
FORM: MC,18,41,15
Top Myrtle Finish: MC (79-72)
Top Comp Finishes: 5,9,18,46,50,52
Insights: App gain last week is great to see for a player trying to deal with mental hurdle after the brutal loss 2 starts ago. He will need the putter to heat up but also this isn’t considered a Joel course. Comps are there and he plays well in opp field events, but lowest of 67 albeit negative approach and +1.17 putter. If can match App and Putt then Top 20 within reach for JD.
Hayden Springer
Top 75%: ALL
Notable Top 25%: TG, DD, APPP, BOB, P3, P5
SG GAINS: 4/4 OTT, 2/4 APP (LAST 2 LOSS), 2/4 ard, ¾ putt (lost last week)
FORM: MC,18,41,15
Top Myrtle Finish: MC (79-72)
Top Comp Finishes: 15,MC,MC,MC
Insights: Similar profile to Gotterup in my mind. Miss cut last week but has been on my radar after 5 straight made cut and still looking for first top 5 this year and first top 10 since January. Think I would buy short term over long. Wish the app was better but OTT shouldn’t be ignored. Worse choices on the board, maybe DFS over bets.
Rico Hoey
Betting Odds: +4000
Top 75%: exclude PUTT
Notable Top 25%: TG, OTT, APP, GIR, 150175, 175200, BS, BOB, P4, P5
SG GAINS: ¾ OTT, 2/4 APP, 2/4 ARD, 1/12 PUTT
FORM: 52,MC,12,MC
Top Myrtle Finish: MC (74-76)
Top Comp Finishes: 11,MC,MC
Insights: Thought he might go well last week if the putter could be okay. 63 on Thursday behind +2.38 SG Putting and only +0.13 APP. I knew it would be a struggle to keep pace with those splits and a 73 Friday was inevitable. Last years top 10 at Dunes featured golfers who went 3,41,2,4,5,8,7,9,22 in SG Putting for the week. If Rico is to be within that group over 4 days, he will have a Top 5 min finish. Big IF.
Kevin Yu
Betting Odds: +3000
Top 75%: exclude SCR, ARD, PUTT
Notable Top 25%: TG, OTT, APP, GIR, 150175,175200, PROX, BS, BOB, P3, P5
SG GAINS: 4/4 OTT, ¾ APP, 2/4 ARD, 0/8 PUTT
FORM: 29,MC,MC,18
Top Myrtle Finish: 4 (67-69-66-67)
Top Comp Finishes: 18
Insights: Known flusher to the clubhouse without a flat stick. Only gained twice this season (WMPO,AMEX) over 13 starts but his gains OTT and APP are a bettors sweaty dream. Add in he gained 0.71 on the greens and lost 0.30 APP here last year in route to his T4 finish and we might be onto something this week. Past winner at the Sanderson Farms in October show he is able to get over the finish line when the putter is working. I am a Yuuu guy this week even at 30/1.
Max McGreevy
Betting Odds: +5000
Top 75%: exclude SCR
Notable Top 25%: TG, OTT, AP, PROX
SG GAINS:
FORM: 15,24,49,MC
Top Myrtle Finish: Debut
Top Comp Finishes: 19,67,MC
Insights: Not the first time McGreevy has entered the top 10 chat. Strong OTT and APP play keeps him in play while the putter is a rollercoaster of a ride. Gained across the bag last week with a T15 at Nelson (including 3 rounds of 66 to go with a Friday 71. First time here like many others so I am not ready to jump in the deep end yet, but odds are decent at 50/1 and FRL at 60/1.
Sammy’s Top 20
Final Bets
Champ’s Crew
Win
Alex Smalley +3000 - 1.65u
Kevin Yu +3000 - 1.65u
Hayden Springer +7500 - 0.70u
FRL
Alex Smalley +5000 - 0.60u
Max McGreevy +6000 - 0.50u
Henrik Norlander +6000 - 0.50u
Hayden Springer +7500 - 0.40u
Hat Tip
Mac Hughes / Chris Gotterup
Sammy’s Selections
Win
Alex Smalley +3500 - 0.6
Miscellaneous Notes
Top 20 frequency at Signature Events
Tuesday’s show
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