THE PLAYERS Championship
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Time is of the Essence!
With 4 holes to go, it looked like a multiple stroke victory for Collin Morikawa who was 3 shots clear of the field including Russell Henley. However, a two-shot swing on Sunday’s toughest hole, Par 3 14th, and the lead was 1. Not to be outdone the pivotal Par 5 16th at Bay Hill produced the tournament’s defining moment. Morikawa layed up due to a poor drive and Henley blocked his 7 iron pin high into a juicy lie in the rough. Russ after the round said there was no way to stop it, but somehow he found a way. His chip hit the flagstick dead center and dropped for the big bird and a 1 shot lead. Collin couldn’t find a birdie coming home and the Red Cardigan was on the shoulders of the 35-year-old Georgian for his 5th PGA Tour victory and 7th in OWGR.
Clubhouse golf clap to Karl Vilips on his 1st PGA Tour win at PRO in Sun Day Red!
The PLAYERS Championship Patio Preview
TPC Sawgrass
Ponte Vedra Beach, FL
Course Comps
Sedgefield
TPC River Highlands
Potomac Avenel
TPCs
144 players, Cut Top 65 + ties
$25M purse is biggest of the year
Winner = $4.5M
Course Architect: Pete Dye
PAR 72: 7,352 yards (About 75 yards longer in 2025)
Greens: Bermuda/Poa Trivialis overseed
5,500 sq feet (smaller than average)
Fairways 25-30 yards wide
Hitting fairways is crucial
Rough grown out to 4”
Plenty of hazards
Almost every single hole has water in play
Ample fairway bunkers
Almost every green is surrounded by water and/or sand
4 Par 3s
2 of hardest 4 holes
All usually play above par
1 super long (230 yards+)
1 super short (<150 yards)
2 about 180-190 yards
10 Par 4s
Hardest 2 holes 14 and 18
Average distance 430-440 yards
Avoid blow ups on these holes
4 Par 5s
4 easiest holes (massive birdie rates near 40%)
Look for guys that are capable of birdies on at least 3 of 4 all weekend
Ball-striking/Irons course more than short game course
Avoid Water + Avoid 3-putts + Par 5 Scoring = success
Previous Winners
2024: Scottie Scheffler (-20); 1 stroke over Schauffele, Clark, Harman
2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17); 5 strokes over Hatton
2022: Cameron Smith (-13); 1 stroke over Lahiri
2021: Justin Thomas (-14); 1 stroke over Westwood
Odds
1-25: 6
26-50: 2
51-100: 5
101+: 1
Position By Round
R1: 12/14 within 5 shots of lead
R2: 9/14 within 3 shots of lead
R3: 13/14 within 3 shots of lead
FORM
11/14 Top 21 finish in last start
9/14 Top 5 finish in last 4 starts
4/14 at least 1 MC in last 2 starts
First Round Leader Tee Split*
AM 13/14
PM 8/14
*14 last 16 winners with AM/PM Tee Split
Stats
Shots Gained: Approach
Shots Gained: Off-The-Tee
Shots Gained: Putting (Poa Trivialis/Fast)
Fairways Gained
Good Drives Gained
Distance from Edge of Fairway
Greens in Regulation
Going for Green - BOB%
Approach <100
Approach 100-125
Approach 200+
Scrambling/Sand Saves
3-putt Avoidance (Poa Trivialis/Fast)
Birdie or Better
Bogey Avoidance
Shots Gained: Par 4 (450-500)
Par 5 BOB%
Early Week Model
Champ’s Model
Based on Current Season, Non-Filtered Season Stats
Green: Top 100 or better ranking this season
Red: Outside Top 125 ranking this season
Yellow: No Data Available
Model Based on Field Rank
Green: Top 25% in Field
White: Middle 50% in Field
Red: Bottom 25% in Field
Yellow: No Data Available
Initial #PLAYERS Top 10
Collin Morikawa
Sepp Straka
Russell Henley
Alex Smalley
Robert MacIntyre
Nick Taylor
Daniel Berger
Nicolai Hojgaard
Patrick Cantlay
JJ Spaun
Check out Wednesday’s newsletter for Bets and Final Models!
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