The Open Championship - Patio Preview, Early Models, Key Stats & Tournament Trends
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Patio Preview
Royal Portrush
Par 71, 7,300 - 7,400 yards
156 players, Top 70 & ties make cut
Coastal links course
Final major of the year
Greens: Fescue
Just over 5,000 sq ft average
Bumpy and very slow on Stimpmeter
Rough: Fescue
Just about 4” (long)
High missed fairway penalty/rough penalty
Not many forgiving landing spots if you miss fairways
Gorse bushes could make shots unplayable
Not overly long unless wind is blowing into players faces
Mixed clubs off-the-tee, not an overly heavy driver course
Zero water hazards
Less than 40 bunkers
A lot of blind shots
Scrambling will be tested
Open was last played here in 2019
Driving Accuracy sub-60%
GIR% sub-65%
GIR% from rough sub-50%
Scrambling% right around 50%
Sand save 37%
BOB% sub-17%
Birdie-to-bogey ratio 0.81
Par 3 scoring: 3.08
Par 4 scoring: 4.15
Par 5 scoring: 4.74
All metrics lower/worse than Tour average (aka DIFFICULT)
4 Par 3s
#16 only P3 in top half of difficulty on course
11 Par 4s
5 of hardest 6 holes
3 Par 5s
3 easiest holes despite sub-40% BOB rate overall on these holes
3 of 5 easiest holes on first 5
3 of 5 hardest holes on last 5
Par is good
Avoiding disaster on Par 4s essential for success
OTT, APP, ARD, PUTT all considered difficult to very difficult on this course
Recent Tournament History
2024: Xander Schauffele -9, 2 shots over Rose, Horschel (Royal Troon)
2023: Brian Harman -13, 6 shots over Straka, Day, T.Kim, Rahm (Royal Liverpool)
2022: Cam Smith -20, 1 shot over Cam Young (St. Andrews Old Course)
2021: Collin Morikawa -15, 2 shots over Jordan Spieth (St. George’s)
2019: Shane Lowry -15, 6 shots over Tommy Fleetwood (Royal Portrush)
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Key Stats
Tier 1
Shots Gained: Approach
Shots Gained: Off-the-Tee
Driving Accuracy
Shots Gained: Putting (Slow)
Scrambling
Tier 2
Par 4 scoring
Greens-in-Regulation (Small)
Bogey Avoidance
Proximity from Rough
3-putt Avoidance
Tier 3
P5 BOB%
P3 Scoring
Shots Gained T2G: Links courses (3 years)
Champ’s Comp Course
Caves Valley Golf Club
Liberty National Golf Club
PGA National Golf Club
Memorial Park Golf Course
Last 5 Open Championship Trends
Odds
0-25: 2022, 2024
26-50: 2021
51-100: 2019
101+: 2023
Winner’s Strokes Behind Leader by Round
R1: 3/5 (60%) at least 3 shots back
R2: 4/5 (80%) within 2 shots
R3: 4/5 (80%) within 1 shot
R3: 3/5 (60%) played in the final pairing
Winner’s Lead-In Form
4/5 (80%) played The Scottish Open the week prior
3/4 (75%) who played The Scottish Open finished in Top 15
4/5 (80%) finished in the Top 10 in a previous major that season
4/5 (80%) finished in the Top 40 in their last start
5/5 (100%) with at least 2 Top 20 finishes in their last 4 starts
5/5 (100%) with at least 1 Top 10 finish in their last 4 starts
0/5 (0%) with a WIN in their last 4 starts
FIRST ROUND LEADER TEE SPLITS
AM 50% (2023, 2022, 2021)
PM 50% (2024, 2023, 2019)
*results can include instances where FRL from both AM/PM and both get credited with a win.
Early Models
Champ’s Initial Top 10
Scottie Scheffler
Sepp Straka
Collin Morikawa
Russell Henley
Patrick Cantlay
Corey Conners
J.J. Spaun
Nick Taylor
Ben Griffin
Matt McCarty
Shots Gained: Open Championship (since 2021)
