The Masters

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It’s Time!

First Timers or Major Champions are now winning PGA Tour tournaments this season at a clip of 64%. Brian Harman, 2023 Open Championship winner, showed why he is considered one of the best under tough, windy conditions as he survived TPC San Antonio in route to a 3 shot victory at The Valero Texas Open over Ryan Gerard.

Patrons Rejoice: Sammy’s Top 20 Bud Cauley (+200) cashes with a Top 5 finish
Patrons Mourn: Bradley last in putting, Cantlay 56th, Conners 50th, and Berger 30th.

All is forgiven by the Clubhouse Crew as we welcome……..MASTERS WEEK!!!

Top Strokes Gained Leaders at The Valero Texas Open

The Valero Texas Open Top 5 finishers and OAD Ownership Percentage

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The Masters Patio Preview

Augusta National Golf Club
Augusta, Georgia

• 96 players in the field

  • 12 from LIV

  • Cut: Top 50 and ties

• Par 72

  • 7,555+ yards

    • Plays longer because of elevation changes

• Greens: Bentgrass

  • A majority of the 41 bunkers are greenside

  • GIR% 5-6% lower than Tour average

  • Roughly 6,500 sq ft

• Course history is as predictive here as any course on Tour

• Elevation changes, sloping fairways throughout

• Can win in multiple ways here, but distance is an advantage

  • Have to get the ball in play to score here

  • “Second cut” (rough) immediately next to fairway isn’t penal in nature

• Tree-lined fairways

  • Missing fairway into the trees and pinestraw is where the issues tend to arise 

• Minimal water but the water that exists is strategically placed

• Birdie-or-better rate roughly 3% lower than Tour average

• Only 5 of 18 holes play under par

• 4 Par 3s

  • All play above par

  • #4 - 240 yards

    • Sub-5% birdie rate, 27%+ bogey rate

• 10 Par 4s

  • Par 4 birdie-or-better% 6% below Tour average

  • 7 of 8 hardest holes

    • #1, #5, #11, #17, #18 all sub-10% birdie rate

      • Avoid fairway bunkers on #5 at all costs

        • Will never hit green in 2 from them

    • 7 Par 4s with at least 23% bogey rate

    • Just 1 Par 4 that plays under par 

      • #3 avg score 3.97

    • Scottie Scheffler estimates hitting fairway on #7 is worth about a half a stroke to the field

• 4 Par 5s

  • As always, MUST take advantage of Par 5s

    • 4 easiest holes, all play under par

  • All 4 have 32%+ birdie rates

• Shots Gained: Off-the-Tee critical for success

  • Driving accuracy 10% higher than Tour average

    • Meaning everyone playing out of fairway, so you’re at a disadvantage compared to rest of field if you’re errant off tee

  • Good drive% slightly above Tour average

• When in doubt, par is a good score here

Key Stats
Tier 1
Shots Gained: Tee-to-Green
Shots Gained: Around-the-Green
Shots Gained: Off-the-Tee
Shots Gained: Approach
Shots Gained: Augusta (Shots Gained: Total @ Augusta L5 years)

Tier 2
Carry Distance
Total Driving efficiency
Good Drive%
Birdie-or-better percentage
Greens-in-Regulation
Going for the Green, Hit Green
Shots Gained: Putting (bentgrass)
Par 5 birdies-or-better
Par 4 scoring
Bogey avoidance

Tier 3
Eagle rate
Sand saves
Approach 50-100 (wedges)
Approach 200+ (long irons)

Trends

• Only 3 debutants have won at Augusta (Last winner: 1979)

• 26 of last 27 Masters winners made the cut in the previous year’s Masters

• 25 of last 27 Masters winners Top-38 finish in the previous Masters

• 14 of last 15 Masters winners Top-8 finish in 1 of 7 events prior to the Masters

• 13 of last 15 Masters winners Top-6 finish in a Major in 1 of previous 2 seasons

• 12 of last 15 Masters winners Top-35 finish in the start before the Masters

• 11 of last 12 Masters winners gained at least 0.25 strokes around-the-green in their 16 rounds prior to the Masters

• 8 of last 11 Masters winners Top-5 finish previously at the Masters

Previous Winners
2024: Scottie Scheffler -11 (66, 72, 71, 68), 4 strokes over Ludvig Aberg
2023: John Rahm -12 (65, 69, 73, 69), 4 strokes over Phil Mickelson and Brooks Koepka
2022: Scottie Scheffler -10 (69, 67, 71, 71), 3 strokes over Rory McIlroy
2021: Hideki Matsuyama -10 (69, 71, 65, 73) 1 stroke over Will Zalatoris

Course Comps
Plantation Course at Kapalua
Ridgewood CC
The Riviera Country Club
Nine Bridges
Torrey Pines GC

Odds
1-25: 7
26-50: 4
51-100: 4

Position by Round
R1: 14/15 <= 4 (13/15 T10)
R2: 13/15 <= 3 (7/15 Led)
R3: 15/15 <= 4 (12/15 T2)

FORM
15/15 T20 L4S
13/15 2 T25 L4S
3/15 MC or WD L4S

FRL (Group #)
1-16: 7/15
17+: 12/15

Sammy’s Early Week Model
Check out the Wednesday newsletter for the final model, which will have more advanced filters. The purpose of the early-week model is to be utilized as a tool that helps narrow your search of players to bet/use in DFS/pick in one-and-done.

Sammy’s Early Model Top 20

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Champ’s Model

Based on Current Season, Non-Filtered Season Stats
Green: Top 100 or better ranking this season
Red: Outside Top 125 ranking this season
Yellow: No Data Available

Top Half of the Field

Bottom Half of the Field

In Field but No Stats This Week

Model Based on Field Rank
Green: Top 25% in Field
White: Middle 50% in Field
Red: Bottom 25% in Field
Yellow: No Data Available

Top 25% of Field

Bottom 25% of Field

Players Inside Top 75% Across All Key Stats This Week

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Initial Masters Top 10
Rory McIlroy
Scottie Scheffler
Robert MacIntyre
Min Woo Lee
Justin Thomas
JJ Spaun
Wyndham Clark
Patrick Cantlay
Will Zalatoris
Thomas Detry

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Check out Wednesday’s newsletter for Final Models, Bets and Insights!

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