The CJ Cup Byron Nelson - Final Bets, Models and Player Deep Dives + Kentucky Derby Notes
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Scorecard
Weather Forecast
Champ’s Top 10 & Player Deep Dives
Scottie Scheffler
Betting Odds: +275 (HardRock)
Top 25% in field in 19 out of 23 key stats (Top 75% DD,ARD,200+,P3)
SG GAINS: 5/5 OTT, APP 5/5, ARD 2/5, PUTT 4/5
FORM: 8,4,2,20
Top Nelson Finishes: 5,15,47
Top Comp Finishes: 3,3,11,17,25
Insights: Best Player in field by a mile (29 spots outrageous). Chance to get his first win this season against weak field and oh yeah playing in Texas. 8-4-2-20-11-3-25-9 Since his last win (8 starts, December 2024) for those curious about his form. Fire up all the Scottie you can muster this week, odds are fair.
Joel Dahmen
Betting Odds: +10000 (HardRock)
Top 75% in field across all key stats
Notable Top 25%: TG, APP, APP Buckets, PROX, BA, P4.
SG GAINS: ¾ OTT, ¼ APP, ¾ ARD, 2/4 PUTT
FORM: MC,2,MC,18
Top Nelson Finishes: 62
Top Comp Finishes: 46,50,52,62
Insights: Missed Cut last week good over bad to get the brutal loss of Corales out of his head. Triple digit price is nice however, stats don’t jump off page. Poor course comps have me waiting on Joel but hope he plays well to overcome obvious internal demons.
Sami Valimaki
Betting Odds: +10000 (HardRock)
Top 75% in field across all key stats exclude OTT and ARD
Notable Top 25%: APP, PUTT, BA, P5
SG GAINS: OTT EVEN, APP 5/5 Big Gains, ARD 2/6, PUTT 5/5
FORM: MC,18,12,4
Top Nelson Finishes: MC (72-68)
Top Comp Finishes: MC,MC
Insights: Missed Cut last week is forgiven and the prior 3 starts are some of the best in this field (18-12-4). 18 was at signature RBCH while other two were in Texas. Known to go low (64-62 weekend at Memorial Park) and not foreign to final group pressure as well when he went head to head with Jake Knapp at The Mexico Open last year. Course History and Comps not great but I expect him to be a popular pick this week at the odds in both First Round Leader and Outright Markets.
Ryan Gerard
Betting Odds: +10000 (HardRock)
Top 75% in field across all key stats
Notable Top 25%: TG, APP, PUTT, BOB, P3, P4
SG GAINS: OTT ¾, ¼ APP, ¾ ARD, ¾ PUTT
FORM: 12,27,2,9
Top Nelson Finishes: MC (71-76, lost 3.29 putting)
Top Comp Finishes: 51,69,MC
Insights: Becoming a current season regular to my Top 10 and just racking up the stats this season is Ryan Gerard with only 1 MC in 12 starts and 6 Top 25 and 2 Top 10s. Approach is definitely leaking oil and putter cooled off for the last 2 weeks as well. Did putt beautifully at the Valero and Approach gain nearly gained 2 strokes at Memorial Park (both Texas tracks). There is a path if he can replicate what he did at Memorial Park (65-65-68-68) but that will only get him to -14 and also require an uptick in his Approach game.Will Zalatoris (WITHDRAWN - REPLACEMENT COMING LATER)
Betting Odds: +4000 (HardRock)
Top 75% in field across all key stats
Notable Top 25%: TG, APP, GIR, 175200, BOB
SG GAINS: OTT 2/4, ¾ APP (bigg gain), 0/4 ARD, 1/6 PUTT
FORM: 54,MC,47,30
Top Nelson Finishes: 17,MC
Top Comp Finishes: 6,11,12,16,34,36Insights: The results that WZ has this year don’t do him justice for his approach game. OTT has been a rollercoaster but mostly gains while the Around and Putter been dreadful. Still looking for his first Top 10 of 2025, Craig Ranch will help to avoid big numbers and if he is missing greens then he won’t contend anyway on a birdie fest week. Bad news is the flat stick somehow only 142nd for the season but 3 straight of losing at least .5 to the field including 1.6 at augusta is tough. Predict when the flat stick will work then he will be contending. Otherside, his last Top 5 finish….March 2024 so how he does under the gun will have to be seen as well. Dallas guy who plenty cheering for him and grew up with Scottie so intimidation won’t be there but no reason to believe flat stick will be there either (-1.11, -2.14 in two trips at TPC CR).
Jhonattan Vegas
Betting Odds: +15000 (HardRock)
Top 75% in field across all key stats exclude PUTT
Notable Top 25%: GIR, BOB AVG
SG GAINS: 2/4 OTT, ¼ APP, ¼ ARD, 2/4 PUTT
FORM: MC,MC,MC,MC
Top Nelson Finishes: 9,59,MC
Top Comp Finishes: 1,10,11,32,34
Insights: Stats back his opening season and also show the low level of field strength this week. 4 straight missed cuts including 1 in Texas at Memorial Park will give you all the leverage you want if you want to back a player that has a Top 10 at TPC Craig Ranch along with a Win at La Quinta Country Club (2011 but still).
Ryo Hisatsune
Betting Odds: +6000 (HardRock)
Top 75% in field across all key stats exclude DD
Notable Top 25%: TG, APP, GIR, PROX, BOB AVG, BA, P3
SG GAINS: 2/4 OTT, 4/4 APP (min gain), 2/4 ARD (min) 4/4 PUTT (slow drip)
FORM: 18,18,5,47,4
Top Nelson Finishes: 13 (70-65-68-64, EVEN APP, +1 PUTT)
Top Comp Finishes: 11,29,43
Insights: Known for drinking water before every putt, Ryo’s stats and current form are to be watched as well. 2 Top 5s in last 5 starts tell you that he could be on first page again this week. His last victory was 2023 on the DP World Tour over some notable names like Rasmus Hojgaard, Jordan Smith, and Tom Kim. 60/1 is good price in this field and should be thought about for matchup and first round leader selections.
Ben Griffin
Betting Odds: +4000 (HardRock)
Top 75% in field across all key stats
Notable Top 25%: TG, APP, BOB AVG, P3
SG GAINS: OTT ¾, 3/4 APP, 2/4 ARD, ¼ PUTT
FORM: 1,40,18,MC,MC
Top Nelson Finishes: 13,MC
Top Comp Finishes: 3,7,8,9,32,37
Insights: Fresh off his first PGA TOUR win, I was a bit surprised to see him in the field this week with a signature event on the horizon. I am curious to see how he approaches it. Can either play freely and just go out and make birdies in bunches or the realization of a dream made by snagging that elusive first victory could cause him to be complacent. We see it plenty where guys let foot off gas after a win, so this is definitely be something to watch. Stats say, App was there (off last week but forgiven in team event), Putter finally warmed up after 3 loss (prob have to dismiss it also for a team event), 40-18 in Texas at Valero and Memorial. Not interested in 2x PGA Tour Winner Ben Griffin at 40/1 but don’t mind if you want to ride the wave with a Round 1 3Ball or First Round Leader bet.
Max McGreevy
Betting Odds: +15000 (HardRock)
Top 75% in field across all key stats exclude ARD, SCR
Notable Top 25%: TG, OTT, APP
SG GAINS: 0/3 OTT, 1/3 APP, 1/3 ARD, 0/3 PUTT (O for last 5)
FORM: 24,49,MC,MC
Top Nelson Finishes: 30,83,MC
Top Comp Finishes: 8,53,62
Insights: Missed cut in both Texas events this season, which puts me off Max this week; however, Top 25% in field in Tee To Green, Off the Tee and Approach shouldn’t be ignored. Yes, he is bottom 25% in Around the Green and Scrambling, but players relying on either of those categories this week will not be in touch the top of the leaderboard I can promise you that. DFS pivot potential at 6900 and has shown with his T30 (67-66-71-66) finish last year he can make cut this week and challenge for Top 20 come Sunday.
Jake Knapp
Betting Odds: +5000 (HardRock)
Top 75% in field across all key stats
Notable Top 25%: DD, 200+, PUTT, BOB, BOB AVG, P5
SG GAINS: 3/3 OTT, ¼ APP, ¼ ARD, 6/7 PUTT
FORM: 3,MC,27,MC
Top Nelson Finishes: 8 (64-64-67-70)
Top Comp Finishes: MC,MC
Insights: Mr. 59 did his best to help PGA Tour Rookie, Frankie Capan III, around TPC Louisiana last week. Unfortunately, the task was a bit too tall and finished 3rd. Knapp becoming a team specialist after his co-ed win and now a 3rd at Zurich. After 2 MC in his last 3 starts, he’s looking to get back into form that saw him go 17-25-6-12 over a 4 week stretch including 2 signature events. OTT will be there we know that, question will be his approach game (losing in 3 of the last 4). If irons can improve (already top 25% on season from 200+) then no reason Jake can’t be first page on Sunday and also on Thursday. 50/1 decent price for a guy who can go low and 60/1 on First Round Leader will be a ticket I surely have by Wednesday night.
Sammy’s Final Model
Final Bets
Sammy’s Selections - @SammyAvBets
WIN
Lee Hodges +9000 with 5 places each way (B365) (1.5u*)
*half of total risk goes on outright, half goes on the 5 places at 1/4 outright odds
Placements
Top 20 Parlay: Rio Hisatsune + Lee Hodges +985 (DK) (1u) curated w/ Champ on Tuesday’s show
First Round Leader
Jordan Spieth +3500 (0.7u)
Sami Valimaki +8000 with 5 places each way (B365) (0.8u*)
*half of total risk on FRL, other half on 5 places/T5 at 1/4 of FRL odds
First Round 3-Ball
Matti Schmid +150 > Hossler/Laird (1.5u)
Champ’s Crew - @Champs311
WIN
Ryo Hisatsune +6000 (1u)
Lee Hodges +7500 (0.7u)
First Round Leader
Jordan Spieth +4000 (1u)
Jake Knapp +5000 (0.75u)
Sami Valimaki +7500 (0.55u)
First Round 3-Ball
Matti Schmid +150 > Hossler/Laird (2u)
Victor Perez +150 > Nesmith/Lower (2u)
Champ vs Sammy One-and-Done Contest
PLAYERS Championship: Champ Winner (Morikawa vs Thomas) +$520,000
Valspar Championship: Sammy Winner (Fleetwood vs Zalatoris) +$104,000
Houston Open: Champ Winner (Thompson vs M. Kim) +$16,014
Valero Texas Open: Champ Winner (Cantlay vs Bradley) +$23,857
The Masters Tournament: Sammy Winner (McIlroy vs Scheffler) +$3,192,000
RBC Heritage: Champ Winner (Burns vs Day) +$316,000
CJ Cup Byron Nelson: Rasmus Hojgaard (Sammy) vs Jake Knapp (Champ)
Sammy leads by $2,420,129
Kentucky Derby Notes from Bob Bauer
Journalism - by far the best horse and the one to beat on paper; doesn’t guarantee win but expects a top 3 finish
American Promise - sounded like his favorite horse, expects him to be in contention if not win; has won a maiden race in the mud (expecting muddy conditions as we look at the forecast for the Derby as of Wednesday PM)
Final Gambit - finisher; “big leg pace”; could see winning
Sandman - good on paper, won the Arkansas Derby, but wasn’t maintaining a straight line down the stretch - could signal fatigue
Sovereignty - expects to be in the mix but doesn’t think he will win
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