The CJ CUP Byron Nelson
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PGA Tour Winner has a nice sound to it!
As noted in last Monday’s newsletter, Andrew Novak current form couldn’t be dismissed. The question this week would be how would two non-winners (teamed with Ben Griffin) on the PGA Tour work together for the first time to claim victory. After a Saturday 61, the duo carried a 3 shot lead into the final day over Jake Knapp / Frankie Capan III and Ryo Histasune / Kanaya and 4 shots over a group of teams most notably Nicolai and Rasmus Hojgaard. Shaky bogey on 1 but a bounce back birdie on 2 seemed to settle the nerves for Novak/Griffin. Knapp/Capan birdied the 10th to pull even. After back to back birdies for the Hojgaards on 13 and 14, it looked to be a 3 horse race. Capan’s tee shot on the Par 3 17th found water and Novak found lan but was on the fringe 35 feet away. Griffin said later he was just trying to lag it down the hill, but he did one better as it went in dead center and he gave out emotion that reminded the clubhouse of the roar that JT let out a week prior. Hojgaard’s birdied the 72nd in the group ahead, but Novak/Griffin only needed a par to secure the win. The pairing played it like multi time winners on the tour and it was Griffin who tapped in for par and claimed victory at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans and an invite into the PGA Championship and the remaining Signature Events of 2025.
Patrons Rejoice:
Back to a full field event this week with The CJ Cup Byron Nelson and only 17 days away from Golf’s 2nd major of the year, PGA Championship at Quail Hollow.
Patrons Mourn:
Hojgaard twins FRL bet (+3000) shoot 59 but miss FRL after KFT rookies post 58.
Hojgaard twins Outright bet (+2500) finish 1 shot back in solo 2nd
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson Patio Preview
TPC Craig Ranch
Very long course
Par 71, 7,569 yards
Extended ~150 yards
156 players; cut T65 and ties
Greens: Bentgrass
7,000+ sq ft (above average size)
83 bunkers, 13 holes with water
Rough expected to be grown out a bit more this year
4 Par 3s
3 of the 4 are 200+ yards
2 of the hardest 5 holes
Bogey rate of 12%+ on #4, #7, #15
11 Par 4s
7 play at or under par
#12 and #16 hardest 2 holes on course
Both just over 490 yards
sub-10% birdie rate, 20%+ bogey rate
3 Par 5s
3 easiest holes on course
All have 50%+ birdie rates
#5 and #9 3%+ eagle rates
Driver usage 5.5% higher than PGA Tour average
Good drive percentage 4% higher than Tour average
Greens in regulation nearly 5% higher than Tour average
Average approach distance more than 13 yards longer than Tour average
33%+ of approach shots come from 200+
Scrambling rate about 7% higher than Tour average
Putting inside 10’ slightly easier than Tour average
Birdies or better 4% better than Tour average
Birdie to bogey ratio: 2.15 (Tour average 1.41)
Average round score no higher than 69.5; as low as 68.25
Par 4 and Par 5 scoring earlier than Tour average
Avg P4 scoring: 3.93 (Tour 4.04)
Avg P5 scoring: 4.48 (Tour 4.63)
P5 BOB 9% higher than Tour average
Previous Winners
2024: Taylor Pendrith -23 (64, 67, 63, 67); 1 stroke over Ben Kohles
2023: Jason Day -23 (64, 69, 66, 62); 1 stroke over SW Kim and Austin Eckroat
2022: K.H. Lee -26 (64, 68, 67, 63); 1 stroke over Jordan Spieth
2021: K.H. Lee -25 (65, 65, 67, 66); 3 strokes over Sam Burns
Key Stats
Tier 1
Shots Gained: Approach
Shots Gained: Tee-to-Green
Shots Gained: Putting
Driving Accuracy
Total Birdies/Birdies or better %
Tier 2
Good Drives %
Greens in Regulation %
Going-for-Green, hit green %
Approach from 200+ yards
Scrambling
Bogey Avoidance
Par 5 birdie or better %
Tier 3
Putting 5-10 feet
3-putt avoidance
Par 4 birdie or better %
Course Comps
La Quinta
CordeValle
Port Royal
Silverado
Tournament Trends (Last 4 Years)
WIDE ODDS RANGE: +9000, +1750, +10500, +17500
POS BY ROUND: All Four Winners: within 4 after R1, 3/4 within 2 after R3
FORM: All FOUR winners with at least 1 Top 25 finish in their last 4 starts
FIRST ROUND LEADER: All FOUR played in Early Wave on Thursday
Champ’s Model
Based on Current Season, Non-Filtered Season Stats
Green: Top 100 or better ranking this season
Red: Outside Top 125 ranking this season
Yellow: No Data Available
Model Based on Field Rank
Green: Top 25% in Field
White: Middle 50% in Field
Red: Bottom 25% in Field
Yellow: No Data Available
Initial Model Top 10
Scottie Scheffler
Keith Mitchell
Alex Smalley
Joel Dahmen
Ryan Gerard
Jake Knapp
Ben Griffin
Will Zalatoris
Kevin Roy
Hayden Springer
Sammy’s Early Week Model
Check out Wednesday’s newsletter for Final Models, Bets and Insights!
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