The American Express
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PGA TOUR MAKES ITS WAY INLAND - STARTING CALI SWING
THE AMERICAN EXPRESS (AKA AMEX, #TheAmexGolf)
LA QUINTA, CA
PGA WEST
Not a signature event, so smaller purse here compared to big name events. About 9M total in purse, winner gets about 1.6.
3 COURSE ROTATION - 54 HOLE CUT, EVERYONE PLAYS ALL 3 COURSES PRIOR TO CUT
PETE DYE STADIUM COURSE
La Quinta Country Club - easiest of the 3
Nicklaus Tournament Course
Final round played at Stadium Course - only course that will be used for 2 rounds (if players make the cut)
Also may be the only course with shot tracker this weekend?
COURSE INFO -
All 3 courses 7,050 - 7,200 yards and par 72
Poa Trivialis overseed greens - similar agronomy to courses like TPC Scottsdale, TPC Sawgrass, TPC San Antonio, and Innisbrook if you want to look at putting performances at other places for comparison purposes
A couple specifics to stadium course:
Greens and bunkers at stadium course completely redone last year. Greens are larger and re-sodded. Will likely run more firm than last year. Maybe increasing putting difficulty? Harder to get near the pin? (take with grain of salt, very easy here).
30-35 yard-wide fairways that play wider because the rough isn’t very penal
3 hardest holes are par 3’s (13, 6, 17)
PREVIOUS WINNERS
2024: Nick Dunlap (-29), 1 stroke margin
2023: Jon Rahm (-27), 1 stroke margin
2022: Hudson Swafford (-23), 2 stroke margin
2021: Si-Woo Kim (-23), 1 stroke margin
2020: Andrew Landry (-26), 2 stroke margin
TRENDS / WEATHER
7 of last 18 winners are first-time PGA tour winners
5 of last 7 winners were triple digit odds (100/1 or greater)
14 of last 16 winners played at least 1 of the hawaii events - Dunlap - first amateur to win on PGA tour since Phil in 1991? - aka my entire life lol
4 of last 9 winners started LaQuinta round 1
4 of last 9 (not necessarily same 4) winners played Stadium round 3 (had back to back stadium round 3 and 4)
Weather - low 70s and sunny all weekend without much wind to speak of.
Scorer’s paradise - so what’s needed to win here? What do golfers need to be good at to have success at Amex?
KEY STATS
Not one of the most challenging PGA tournaments, to say the least. Driving Accuracy is the Only key metric in which the Stadium course ranks inside the top 20 on tour.
You can get pretty granular with these golf stats in your models, but since this tournament is somewhat of a lottery given the multi-course rotation and the history of longshots winning, I’ve settled on a few key stats that I feel are most important for success this week, without getting TOO deep in the weeds:
Good Drives gained - measured by a player hitting the fairway or missing the fairway but hitting the green in regulation. Encompasses that key driving accuracy metric,with a twist.
Driving distance - accuracy probably more important, but i think distance is going to help too, especially with non-penal rough.
SG: Approach - iron play is crucial here. Players need to set themselves up to score consistently, which leads me to the next stat
Opportunities gained - another approach metric. approach shots within 15 feet of the hole
SG: Putting - this is a birdie-fest after all - you need to score
Birdie or better gained - again, birdie fest, so you need your birdies.
Bonus putting - how many putts do you hit less than 5 feet and also greater than 20 feet. So how do you clean up those easy putts, and how you do on those long putts that help you gain on the field?
Par 5 scoring - easiest holes here are par 5s. You almost have to birdie or eagle all 4 of these every round to have a serious shot at contention
Par 3 scoring - hardest holes here are par 3s, so looking for guys that don’t blow up on these holes.
SG: easy courses - some players are built for birdie fests, some players are built to grind for 4 days and win tournaments at -8 rather than -28.. I want to see who the easy course guys are
So considering those metrics and the tournament trends, here are 5 names that I like most this week:
Sam Burns - LQ - 18/1 B365 - gains with the putter in 7 of last 8 tournaments. Has been top 11 in 3 of last 4 appearances here, most notably last year when he hit water on P3 17 last year in final round and dropped 2 shots. 3rd in field in BOB gained last 36 rounds, 4th in putting, top 20 OPP gained and SG Easy courses.
Max Greyserman - LQ - 35/1 - odds are hard to swallow given who is listed around him, but he’s been on an insane run. Top 35 in 13 straight tournaments including 5 top 5s (some of which are in fall swing). 2nd at wyndham championship, 2nd at 3M open. Gained with putter in every event since John Deere. 1st in field in bonus putting and BOB gained last 36 rounds. 5th in par 5 scoring. It’s coming. Probably popular this week, but ill likely be on.
Ben Griffin - 60/1 -NT - massive gains with the putter here last 2 years T9 last year. Has gained strokes on approach in 12 of last 16 events (with stats). Top 25 in field in Opp gained, BOB gained, P5 scoring. Plays well on easy courses.
Nico Echavarria - ECH UH VUH RIA 60/1 - LQ - lost in playoff last week, so that causes some hesitation, but Nico has been on a roll. Solid gains with putter in last 4 events with stats, and has has solid putting performances on comparable greens in recent years, which is huge given hes 14th in field in Opp gained last 36 rounds, 22nd in BOB gained, and 2nd in par 3 scoring.
Alex Smalley 110/1 - SC - very good T2G and APP on pete dye courses, 3 top 25s last 7 events. Has played Amex 3 times, 22-24, has been top 25 each time. Usually plays well on easy courses. Top 25 in field in opportunities gained, good drive percentage, par 5 scoring. Just need putter to heat up.
Champ’s Cove
131/156 with season stats this week
#TheAmexGolf Top 10
Based on Current Season Stats
Wyndham “Hotels” Clark
Paul Peterson
Mark Hubbard
Nicoooo Echavarria
Henrik Norlander
Justin Lower
Ryan Gerard
Kurt Kitayama
Thomas Rosenmueller
Ben Griffin
Top 10 Model
**Based on Last Seasons Stats
Mac Meissner
Andrew Novak
Tony Finau
Patton Kizzire
Kevin Yuuuu
Erik Van Rooyen
Ricooo Hoey
JJ Spaun
Charley Hoffman
Tom Kim
I put both on here due to the small sample size from the current season. I also will say my model has not exactly been spot on for the American Express, which makes sense do it’s wacky nature (3 courses, 54 holes cut, etc). I recommend a lighter than normal week and save up some of your bankroll for the next week where the model has been straight fire at one of my favorite courses to bet, Torrey Pines. For tracking purposes, I will be using CURRENT SEASON stats Top 10.
Other Models I have run include the following players that I expect to go well:
Sam Burns
Keith Mitchell
Justin Thomas
Patrick Cantlay
Sungjae hIM
Tony Finau
Max Greyserman
Jonnathan Vegas
Defending Champion Nick Dunlap
My scoring goal expectations this week: -8, -14, -19, -25.
Looking for players that can stay within 2 shots of these goals for a Sunday Sweat
Looney’s Flushers Den
Daily Fantasy Sports Lineup of the Week
Key Takeaways for the Week
Leave money on the table to ensure your lineup is unique
Check out ownership and find players to pivot off of the more popular options
Key stats to look are Approach, Putting, and Birdies or Better.
JT lower owned between him and Sungjae hIM. Final group here last year with Dunlap and Burns. Game is in form with the only question being the flat stick. Not a matter of if but when for him to figure it out on the greens and get back in the winner’s circle.
Best OWGR player in the field this week with X’s WD: Wyndham “Hotels” Clark. Winner last year at the other Pro-AM event held at Pebble Beach and oh by the way claimed a Major Championship in California at LACC. Wide range of outcomes possible for Hotels this week, but we believe game is trending and just need the irons and flat stick to warm from him to be contending on Sunday.
Nico Echavarria, MVP of the fall swing, and with the help of the flat stick continues his strong form. We aren’t discouraged by his playoff loss last week to Nick Taylor at Sony, but see it as a possible springboard to another high finish. As long as he continues to be priced in the 7K range, we will continue to have him in our lineups.
Michael Kim potential to get hot with approach and on greens, steady form past couple months prior to MC at Sony (MC/11/12/30/5). Winner at the Deere and T5 at Shriners gives us hope for a sneaky low owned play in the 7K range.
Jesper Svensson, Euro rookie, coming off T10 at Sony and 4 T10 last 11 starts is someone to not only keep an eye on this week but over the season as well if he continues to be in the low 7K range.
Antone Rozner is a friend and foe of The Bettor Clubhouse. He likes to stick his head in the mix for a sweaty DPWT Sunday but always finds a way to not come away with the trophy. Here at the 6800 we aren’t looking for a win, but rather a made cut and near T20 finish will pull his weigh for the team this week.
Other names of interest to plug and play at your disposal this week:
Sam Burns
Ben Griffin
Mac Messiner
Max Greyserman
Tom Hoge
Kurt Kitayama
Alex Smalley
Jacoob Bridgeman
Ricoooo Hoey
Matty Schmid
Kevin’s Parlay Parlor
+1026
KC -6.5
Lions -6.5
Eagles -2.5
Ravens ML
tOSU -6.5
Future Slips in Hand
Eagles to beat KC in SB LIX +6600
Lions to beat Bills in SB LIX +15000
Cavs to win NBA Title + Texas -6.5 o ASU + tOSU -2.5 o ORE +3835
JT at Augusta + Scheffler Hero World Challenge + Oregon -3 vs PSU +20123
Final Bets
Sammy’s Selections
Nico 60 (0.6), top 20 + 200 (1u)
Griffin 65 (0.6), top 20 +210 (0.7)
Smalley 120 (0.4), top 20 +320 (0.7)
Greyserman +4450 with boost
JT exposure in a free bet parlay
Burns exposure with NFL / CFB faves
Looney’s Loons
Amex
Hotels
Meissner
Dubai
Win
Rasmus Hojgaard
Johannes Veerman
FRL Andy Sullivan
Champ’s Crew
Wyndham Hotels Clark 30 - 1.5u
Max Greyserman 30 - 1.5u
Ben Griffin 50 - 0.90u
Sepp Straka 50 - 0.90u
Mac Meissner 60 - 0.75u
Hat Tips of the Week
(Players I think COULD win, but I WON’T BET due to poor odds)
Justin Thomas / Sungjae hIM / Sam Burns
One and Done Pick of the Week
(Select ONE player per tournament, once used they cannot be used again.
Earnings a player wins at the end of week is your earnings for the week.
Winner based on the highest amount of earnings made by each selected player)
The Sentry - Hideki Matsuyama - 3,600,000.00
Sony Open - Russell Henley - 195,025.00
American Express - Max Greyserman
Pod Nod
David Lipsky Emoji Nickname
