Texas Children's Houston Open - Final Bets & Models + March Madness Insights
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2025 Scorecard
Weather Report (As of Wednesday night around 5:00pm ET)
Final Bets
Champ’s Crew - @Champs311
WIN
Scottie Scheffler + Ole Miss ML +1040 (5u)
Davis Thompson +3300 (1.6u)
FIRST ROUND LEADER
Jason Day +5000 (0.6u)
Taylor Moore +6000 (0.5u)
Harris English +7500 (0.4u)
Victor Perez +10000 (0.3u)
R1 3Ball + March Madness Parlay +106 - 3.5u
Scottie Scheffler -140 > Rickie / Sungjae
Duke ML -500
HAT TIP
Rory McIlroy, Tony Finau, Aaron Rai
Sammy’s Selections - @SammyAvBets
WIN
Scottie Scheffler +450 (2.5u)
Top 20
Joe Highsmith +225 (MGM)
Top 20 Parlay
Si Woo Kim + Min Woo Lee +541 (B365)
Champ vs Sammy One-And-Done Contest
PLAYERS Championship: Champ Winners (Morikawa vs Thomas) +$520,000
Valspar Championship: Sammy Winner (Fleetwood vs Zalatoris) +$104,000
Houston Open: Michael Kim (Sammy) vs Davis Thompson (Champ)
Champ leads by $416,000
Final Models
Champ’s Top 10
Alex Smalley
Nicolai Hojgaard
Keith Mitchell
Scottie Scheffler
Kevin Roy
J.J. Spaun
Joel Dahmen
Ryan Gerard
Jake Knapp
Ben Griffin
Sammy’s Top 20
March Madness
Matchup Notes
Alabama vs BYU
Both heavy rim and 3 offenses, with Alabama being more rim-heavy than BYU and BYU being more 3-heavy than Alabama.
Both offenses highly efficient with top 12 marks in both KenPom adjusted offensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage
Defenses leave a bit to be desired from a season long perspective, but both are top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency (Barttorvik) since February 15th.
A couple of interesting defensive tidbits when you look deeper into this matchup
BYU strength defensively is rim-denial
92nd percentile in FG allowed at rim (CBB Analytics)
Top 20 near-proximity rate allowed (Haslametrics)
Alabama strength is on perimeter
91st percentile in corner 3 rate allowed
71st percentile in above-break 3 rate allowed
These are BYU’s 2 most common shot zones
Bama keys to victory: force turnovers, make 3s
BYU keys to victory: don’t rely only on 3s, limit easy opportunities via offensive rebounds + FTs
Florida vs Maryland
Maryland coming off buzzer-beater after being out-played by Colorado State
Not ideal situational spot considering just 2 of last 9 teams to win at the buzzer won their ensuing game.
Florida has the necessary size (and depth) to defend Maryland’s Reese and Queen, who are strong on both ends of the floor
Condon and Chinyelu both top 17 in SEC in EvanMiya’s defensive rating
Reese and Queen both top 7 in Big Ten in EvanMiya’s defensive rating
Game likely comes down to which back court performs better
ADV UF imo, 3 senior guards in Clayton, Martin, Richard
Gators very good off the dribble, attack rim often, and love transition opportunities
Terps defense can be vulnerable off the bounce (56th percentile per Hoop-Explorer)
Maryland solid at defending transition, but when opponents get out and run, they usually get good looks
Maryland guards like to attack off the dribble as well, but often settle for mid-range shots or feed its bigs for post-ups
Florida 90th percentile vs dribble jumpers, 97th percentile vs mid-range, and 84th percentile vs post ups
Florida keys to victory: make 3s, make FTs, quality production from bench
Maryland keys to victory: limit turnovers and fouls, be strong around the rim
Duke vs Arizona
Rematch! Duke dominated Arizona in Tucson back in November
Held ‘Cats to just 0.81 points per possession and 6/23 from 3 (Love was 1/9 from distance)
Blue Devils dominated the glass 43-30
Flagg + Knueppel combined for 37 points
Bradley + Lewis combined for 30 points and 8 steals
Duke can score from anywhere, but has been particularly good from distance of late thanks to Proctor’s insane shooting.
Arizona prone to give up 3s at a high rate, especially vulnerable at top of key in Proctor ball screens with Flagg or Knueppel.
Given streaky 3-point shooing, Arizona needs to create at the rim
Not going to be easy, Duke is elite in its rim defense
93rd percentile in attempts at rim, 91st percentile field goal % at rim
Cross-country travel for Arizona after being on the road last weekend
Duke slept in own beds last weekend with first 2 games down the road from campus in Raleigh. Quick flight to Newark.
Tommy Lloyd has covered just 1 of 7 NCAA Tournament games with 3+ days of prep
Duke keys to victory: control the glass, contest 3s at every chance (Flagg switches not just Maluach drops)
Arizona keys to victory: make shots (specifically Caleb Love), limit unforced turnovers
Texas Tech vs Arkansas
Injury questions on both sides
Texas Tech: Will Chance McMillan play?
Arkansas: Will Adou Thiero play? (reportedly practiced last week)
Pace war: TTU wants to slow it down, Arkansas wants to run
Tech has underperformed defensive expectations in 4 straight games
Arkansas is 29.3% from 3 since February 15th
Coach Calipari postseason magic - seems to perform best when his team is an underdog
Texas Tech keys to victory: control the paint, do not let Arkansas get hot from 3 (doesn’t happen often but Hogs often put themselves in situations to win games when they make at least 33-35% of their 3s)
Arkansas keys to victory: push pace, make free throws, stay disciplined defensively around rim
Michigan State vs Ole Miss
Big experience dichotomy in this matchup
Ole Miss 3rd in Division 1 experience (KenPom)
Michigan State 214th
Most of this inexperience is Fears + Richardson - who went just 1/12 from field combined vs New Mexico
Worry about Ole Miss on the glass due to lack of size, but the Rebels don’t turn the ball over and can spread MSU out with Dia and Brakefield’s ability to hit perimeter shots
Ole Miss strong defensively at and around the rim
73rd percentile rim attempts allowed, 86th percentile paint attempt allowed
Key vs MSU, who is inconsistent offensively on the perimeter (323rd 3pt%)
Rebels force turnovers at top 35 rate
Coach Chris Beard 8-1 ATS in NCAAT with 3+ days of prep
12 NCAAT wins with 4 different programs
Michigan State keys to victory: force turnovers, control glass
Ole Miss keys to victory: crash defensive glass, use bigs on perimeter to take MSU rim-protectors away from paint
Tennessee vs Kentucky
Rematch of the rematch! UK victory both times agains Tennessee this season - both as underdogs
Butler did not play in one, Robinson did not play in the other
Tenn feed into UK’s hand in first meeting by shooting 45 3s, making only 11
Tenn took only 18 3s in second meeting, but made only 3
Kentucky shot 50% from 3 on 48 attempts in both meetings combined
Kentucky defense not great around the rim when opponents get there
Wildcats do well at limiting rim action, but they don’t block or deter shots once players get to the rim (This is a Zakai tweet)
Tennessee very good defensively against dribble penetration, which is where Oweh and Butler often feast
Rick Barnes notably awful ATS in the NCAA Tournament (6-18 ATS since 2010) and has lost twice to this UK team, yet is still favorite? Interesting…
Tenn 49-31 ATS when a favorite and on 4+ days of prep in last 5 years
Tennessee keys to victory: wreak havoc in passing lanes, double-digit offensive rebounds
Kentucky keys to victory: 40% 3pt%, limit Tenn FTs
Auburn vs Michigan
Playing in ATL less than 2 hours from Auburn campus
Auburn can match Michigan’s front court size with Broome and Cardwell
Both top 50 in block rate out of 2,300+ Division 1 players
Auburn 353rd in offensive momentum per Haslametrics
Underperformed in 4 straight before Creighton
Despite skid, arguably higher offensive upside with 4 38%+ 3pt shooters compared to Michigan’s 2.
Michigan outside top 200 in consistency, Auburn top 90
Michigan outside top 320 in turnover rate, Auburn 5th
Tre Donaldson vs former team
Danny Wolf vs team he knocked out last year (with Yale)
TO discrepancy and 3PM discrepancy will tell the story
Auburn keys to victory: force double-digit turnovers, limit offensive rebounds
Michigan keys to victory: Limit turnovers (especially Wolf), make free throws, limit Broome on the glass
Houston vs Purdue
Game being played in Indianapolis, less than 90 minutes from Purdue
Houston most efficient defense in the country that excels at making opponents life difficult in mid-range and at rim
Cougars very defensively against attack-and-kick, inside-out, and various off-ball actions where Boilermakers typically thrive
Houston especially scary this year due to its ability to hit 3s
Leads country in 3pt% (39.8%)
Cryer, Sharp, Uzan all 42% or better on at least 125 attempts each
Purdue outside top 300 in 3pt rate allowed
Purdue polar opposite defensively
139th adjusted efficiency since February 15th
329th effective field goal percentage allowed since February 15th (361st 2pt %)
Houston has 3 dudes to throw at TKR - Roberts, Tugler, Francis
Houston keys to victory: win rebounding battle, take away Smith as a scorer
Purdue keys to victory: utilize crowd/regional advantage, limit free points at FT line, finish strong around rim, Loyer big game needed
Bets
Duke -9
Ole Miss +3.5
Florida, Auburn, Houston ML Parlay +114
Leans (likely to on most of these in some fashion come game time)
Alabama/BYU Under 175.5 or better
BYU +5.5
Florida/Maryland Under 157 or better
Arkansas +5.5
Tenn ML
Houston Team Total Over 70 or better
Player Prop leans
Martin (FLA) over points
Proctor (Duke) over pts
Flagg (Duke) over 3s
Dia (MISS) over points
Gainey (TENN) over points
Roberts (HOU) over rebounds
Tuesday’s episode:
LISTEN TO US LIVE FROM FERG’S SPORTS BAR AND GRILLE IN DOWNTOWN SAINT PETERSBURG OR RADIOSTPETE.COMUNDER THE FLORIDA SPORTS STREAM CHANNEL EACH AND EVERY TUESDAY 7:00 PM EST to 8:00 PM EST.
Saw that Rory is playing? Don't count him out?😃