Texas Children's Houston Open
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Holy Schnikes!
Cooperhead once again was a great test for the best players in the world as wind and rain also factored into the equation. In the end, only 2 players hit double digits under par for the week (Viktor Hovland -11, Justin Thomas -10). Hovland who is outspoken about the current status of his game used a hot putter (2nd in field along with Top 10 in Strokes Gained Off The Tee and Approach to notch his 7th PGA Tour Victory and take home the Valspar Championship. After a brillant back 9 on Saturday to put his name in contention, Justin Thomas lead by 3 strokes with 5 holes to play following a -4 through 5-hole stretch on the back 9; however, two bogeys in the snake pit bit him in the end. The clubhouse will keep a close eye on both as we are only 17 days away from a trip down Magnolia Lane!
Texas Children’s Houston Open Patio Preview
Memorial Park
Par 70
7,400+ yards
Plays very long
Greens: Poa Trivialis overseed
Average roughly 7,000 sqft (average)
Not a signature event
144 players
T65 and ties make cut
This event was part of the fall swing for a few years but returned to spring window 2 weeks prior to Masters last year
Not many sand or water hazards here compared to Florida swing
Driver-heavy course
Greater than 76% driver usage compared to PGA Tour average of around 67%.
Players took driver nearly 83% of time last year
Driving accuracy 5% lower than Tour average
Only 6 holes play at or under par
Wide fairways average around 35 yards
missing fairway isn’t super penal
Around green/scrambling will be required, need guys that are good scrambling from short rough
5 Par 3s
Wide range in difficulty and length
2 of 5 are 215+ yards
Other 3 sub 190 yards
All 5 have bogey rates 14% or higher
Interesting dichotomy of Par 4 difficulty
2 hardest holes on the course are 520+ yard par 4s with around 30% bogey rates and sub 7% birdie rate (#14 and #1)
#18 also 1 of the 4 hardest holes
500+ yards, 21% bog rate, sub 10% birdie rate
#4 and #13 are 2 of easiest 5 holes on course with 20%+ birdie rates
Only 3 par 5s
All 3 are among the easiest 4 holes on the course
All 575+ yards
#8 625 yards
2 of the 3 have sub-10% bogey rates
birdie rates of at least 28% on all 3
#3 has 40% birdie rate
Previous Results
2024: Stephan Jaeger -12; 1 stroke over 5 different players including Scottie Scheffler and Tony Finau
2022: Tony Finau -16; 4 strokes over Tyson Alexander
2021: Jason Koran -10; 2 strokes over Kevin Tway
2020: Carlos Ortiz -13; 2 strokes over Dustin Johnson and Hideki Matsuyama
Key Stats
Shots Gained: Putting (Poa Trivialis)
3-putt Avoidance (Poa Trivialis)
Scrambling
Shots Gained: Around-the-green
Shots Gained: Off-the-tee
Driving Distance
Driving Efficiency
Shots Gained: Approach
Approach 150-200
Approach 200+
Par 3 scoring
Par 5 BOB%
Shots Gained: Tee-to-Green (Long, very long)
Good Drives Gained (Long, very long)
Bogey Avoidance (Long, very long)
Birdies or Better (Long, very long)
Course Comps
Southern Hills
Silverado
WMPO
Annandale
Olympia Fields
Odds
0-25: 4
26-50: 4
51-100: 2
101+: 4
Position By Round
R1: 12/14 within 5 of lead
R2: 10/14 within 4 of lead
R3: 12/14 within 3 of lead
FORM
10/14 Made Cut in their last start
12/14 at least 1 Top 20 finish in last 4 starts
7/14 at least 1 Top 10 finish in last 4 starts
First Round Leader Tee Split*
A 9/14
P 10/14
Sammy’s Early Week Model
Check out the Wednesday newsletter for the final model, which will have more advanced filters. The purpose of the early-week model is to be utilized as a tool that helps narrow your search of players to bet/use in DFS/pick in one-and-done.
Champ’s Model
Based on Current Season, Non-Filtered Season Stats
Green: Top 100 or better ranking this season
Red: Outside Top 125 ranking this season
Yellow: No Data Availabl
Model Based on Field Rank
Green: Top 25% in Field
White: Middle 50% in Field
Red: Bottom 25% in Field
Yellow: No Data Availabl
Initial #HoustonOpen Top 10
Nicolai Hojgaard
Keith Mitchell
Kevin Roy
Alex Smalley
Jhonattan Vegas
Michael Kim
Joel Dahmen
Ryan Gerard
JJ Spaun
Ben Griffin
Check out Wednesday’s newsletter for Final Models, Bets and Insights!
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