Super Bowl LX - Betting analysis, confidence picks, TD scorers & props
Full betting analysis for Super Bowl LX, including picks on spread, total, TD scorers, and props. Get breakdowns from the Clubhouse Crew @SammyAvBets & @Champs311 on X
Super Bowl LX
New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks (-4.5; 45.5)
Sammy’s Insights:
Full disclosure, I bet the Seahawks at -3.5 as soon as the lines opened after the NFC Championship, and I would still bet it at -4.5. This Seattle defense has been a force all season long — against a schedule I view as decently more difficult than New England’s — and I don’t see that stopping against a young quarterback starting in the Super Bowl for the first time.
I’m also very impressed with Sammy Dimes under center, as Darnold has been around an 80% adjusted completion percentage with only 4 total turnover-worthy plays in his last 5 games. Some may say he’s due for a clunker, but I’d argue those people are living in the past rather than assessing the now when it comes to Darnold in the pocket. He can find success against this Patriots secondary that is 11th in EPA/pass, 19th in interception rate, and 24th in completion percentage. While this is Darnold’s first Super Bowl too, I’d argue he’s a savvy veteran compared to Maye and that he’s come a long way since seeing ghosts with the Jets.
Speaking of Maye, he has 5 turnover-worthy plays in the playoffs alone, with a completion percentage 65% or below in New England’s recent games. Some of that has to do with the weather conditions in which those games were played, but he has shown a propensity to put the ball in harm’s way against good defenses — 3 TWPs vs PIT and BAL, 2 TWP vs CLE and ATL. If NE can’t get their run game going, which may be hard against the #1 defense in EPA/rush, we could see some forced decisions from the young signal caller. Exactly what the Seahawks want.
Pick: Seahawks -4.5
Confidence: 4/5
Anytime TD: Cooper Kupp
Favorite props:
Kenneth Walker over 2.5 receptions (-120)
With Charbonnet’s injury, Walker should be relied upon more as a receiver out of the backfield. Holani might take some work in this regard, but I have a hard time seeing the coaching staff putting a ton of faith in a 3rd-stringer in the biggest game of their careers. Walker has at least 3 targets in each of his last 3 games, as many as 4 twice, and he’s caught all 11 of them across 3 games. NE gave up the 5th-most receptions to RBs during the regular season. Would play to -135 ish. Ladder up to 5+ receptions for a little more spice.
Cooper Kupp over 32.5 receiving yards (-110)
Kupp has been somewhat of an afterthought this year, but I’ve noticed a decent uptick in volume in Seattle’s 2 playoff games. He has 11 targets in those 2 games, and in brought in 9 of them for 96 combined yards and a TD. I expect that volume uptick to continue in the Super Bowl for 2 reasons. First, because New England is going to sell out to limit JSN’s production. Second, because Kupp is a former Super Bowl MVP (2022). He’s been there, done that, and Darnold knows that. Expect him to continue to look to Kupp in crucial moments. This number feels light by about 7-10 yards. I would play this up to around 37.5.
Austin Hooper over 1.5 receptions (+210)
If there is a weakness in this Seattle defense, it’s against tight ends. During the regular season, they surrendered the 5th-most receptions to the position, as well as the 6th most yards. As soon as you hear that, you probably think of Hunter Henry. Don’t worry, I did too, but his over 3.5 is juiced too much for me. Instead, I’m going to pivot to backup tight end Austin Hooper. He doesn’t get as much volume as Henry, but he does see the field. He was targeted twice in each of the first 2 playoff games, and he’s brought in 2+ receptions 7 different times this year. At this price, it’s worth a sprinkle. Make sure you shop around because this number is as low as +166 at some places. I would play down to +160, but prefer something +180 or better.
I wrote an article for Pickswise earlier this week that explains my favorite final score props for Super Bowl LX. You can read that here.
Champ’s Insights:
From a pure power-rating standpoint, this game points to Seattle. On a neutral field, power ratings have this at SEA -4.5, which aligns with the current market. When you factor in the West Coast edge, speed, and what has been the most dominant defense in football all season, the Seahawks profile as the superior side more often than not.
The game script is pretty clean: if Sam Darnold protects the football, Seattle wins with margin. If he doesn’t and turnovers creep in, that’s when the Patriots hang around and the spread comes into question. I’ve heard plenty of talk about “what if Maye keeps it clean,” but even if he does, I see more New England drives stalling out and failing to convert once they reach the red zone.
New England deserves respect. They’ve faced quality defenses on the way to the title game and have proven they can survive tough, grind-it-out environments. And if this turns into a late, one-score game, I do give the nod to the Patriots in crunch time. That said, when I play this matchup out repeatedly, most scenarios don’t get there. Seattle’s defense controls tempo, limits explosive runs, and forces New England into longer third downs than they want.
Yes, 4.5-point road underdogs can win on Sundays. Since 2010, road dogs of exactly 4.5 points are 360–341 ATS (51%), but only 247–454 straight up (35%). Narrow that to the playoffs and the picture shifts sharply: 17–50 SU (25%) and 27–40 ATS (40%). Even playoff underdogs riding a 5+ game win streak have struggled historically, going 17–36 SU (32%) and 23–30 ATS (43%). Power ratings also give New England roughly a 37.5% chance to win the Lombardi, which aligns with the idea that they can win—just not as often as the market suggests.
I’ve already cashed Seattle’s win total and believe the NFC West has been the best division in football this season. The better team asserts itself early, leans on defense, and stretches the margin late.
Final Score: SEA 31, NE 17
Pick: Seattle Seahawks -4.5
Confidence: 4.5/5
Anytime TD: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Props That Align With the Script
First Quarter Anytime TD – Jaxon Smith-Njigba +550
Not sexy, but logical. JSN has been hot: 10/153/1 vs LAR, 3/19/1 vs SF. If Seattle starts fast, he’s live early. The safer angle is Anytime TD -115 for peace of mind.
DeMarcus Lawrence 1+ Sack +110
Seattle’s defense is the best unit on the field Sunday, and Lawrence is in a prime spot against a New England offense that may be forced to throw more than it wants.
Longest Reception – Cooper Kupp Over 16.5 Yards
This has hit in 7 of his last 10 games. With attention tilted toward JSN, Kupp only needs one clean look to clear the number.
Honorable Mention (Patriots angle): TreVeyon Henderson Over 1.5 Receptions +160
Books are heavily juicing the over 0.5 for a reason. If the run game stalls and Maye is asked to create, Henderson catching two balls feels very live—even with Stevenson drawing most of the public attention.
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