RBC Heritage
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11 Years in the Making and 17th Appearances Later, McIlroy’s number gets called!
The 89th Masters Tournament will be one that is remembered for years to come and a final round that will be watched and replayed as much as 1986 (Jack’s Yes Sir), 1997 (Tiger’s Win for the Ages), 2004 (Phil At Long Last!), 2005 (Tiger’s Chip), 2016 (Spieth’s 7 on 12) and 2019 (Tiger’s Return to Glory). The shot making, mishaps and multi-shot swings on the back 9 were incredible and why Augusta National is the best golf venue in the world. In the end, a 6th Major and completion of Golf’s Grand Slam by Rory McIlroy was well deserved for the best player for the week. Clubhouse golf clap to Justin Rose, his third 2nd place at The Masters, for his 10 birdie birage on Sunday and pushing Rory to the brink in the playoff! Golf remains undefeated!
364 days - 90th Masters!
94 days - The Open Championship
59 days - US Open
31 days - PGA Championship
3 days - RBC Heritage, 5th Signature Event of Season out of 8
RBC Heritage Patio Preview
Harbour Town Golf Links
Hilton Head, SC
Signature Event
Pete Dye design
Par 71
7,200-7,250 yards
Greens: Bermudagrass (Poa Trivalis overseed)
2nd-smallest greens on Tour
Short, tree-lined course that values second shot and short game
Driver usage more than 15% below Tour average
Driving Accuracy, Good Drive % higher than Tour average
Nearly 50% of Approach shots last 5 years come from 150-200
Scrambling rate 7% higher than Tour average
Fewer 3-putts than Tour average
Birdie-to-Bogey ratio 1.56 (Tour average 1.41)
4 Par 3s
All 190+ yards and play over par
2 hardest holes (#14, #4)
Both with greater than a 4.5% double rate
11 Par 4s
Ranging 332-472 yards
6 of 11 play at or below par
#8 3rd most difficult on course
sub-12% birdie rate
17%+ bogey rate
2.5%+ double rate
#9 3rd easiest on course
35%+ birdie rate
Sub-6% bogey rate
3 Par 5s
All 550-600 yards
2 easiest holes and 3 of easiest 4
#2 and #5 birdie rate of greater than 48% and eagle rate of greater than 2.5%
Less than 6% bogey rate
Scoring on these holes is essential
Previous Winners
2024: Scottie Scheffler (-19) 3 strokes over Sahith Theegala
2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17) playoff over Jordan Spieth
2022: Jordan Spieth (-13) playoff over Patrick Cantlay
2021: Stewart Cink (-19) 4 strokes over Grillo and Varner III
Trends
Odds
0-25: 4
26-50: 6
51-100: 2
101+: 3
Winning Score
EVEN TO -10: 2
-11 to -15: 8
-16+: 5
Winners Shots Behind by Round
R1: 11/15 >= 3
R2: 13/15 <= 4
R3: 8/15 >= 3
FORM
6/15 T25 LS
9/15 1 MC L2S
13/15 T25 L4S
MASTERS FINISH
9/15 MC/DNP
5/15 T20
FRL SPLITS
AM 10/15
PM 7/15
Key Stats
Tier 1
Shots Gained: Approach
Driving Accuracy/Fairways Gained
Distance from Edge of Fairway
Shots Gained: Tee-to-Green
Shots Gained: Putting (Poa Triv)
Par 5 Birdie-or-Better %
Tier 2
Good Drive%
Scrambling
Overall Proximity to Hole
Approach 150-175
Approach 175-200
3-Putt Avoidance (Poa Triv)
Birdie-or-Better %
Bogey Avoidance
Tier 3
Shots Gained: Tee-to-Green (Pete Dye design)
Par 3 Scoring
Par 4 Birdie-or-Better%
Sammy’s Early Week Model
Check out the Wednesday newsletter for the final model, which will have more advanced filters. The purpose of the early-week model is to be utilized as a tool that helps narrow your search of players to bet/use in DFS/pick in one-and-done.
Champ’s Model
Based on Current Season, Non-Filtered Season Stats
Green: Top 100 or better ranking this season
Red: Outside Top 125 ranking this season
Yellow: No Data Available
Model Based on Field Rank
Green: Top 25% in Field
White: Middle 50% in Field
Red: Bottom 25% in Field
Yellow: No Data Available
Initial RBC Heritage Top 10
Collin Morikawa
Sepp Straka
Russell Henley
J.J. Spaun
Nick Taylor
Justin Thomas
Lucas Glover
Corey Conners
Ryo Hisatsune
Thomas Detry
Check out Wednesday’s newsletter for Final Models, Bets and Insights!
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