NFL Week 17 - Breakdown, Picks, & Bets
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🏈NFL Week 17 Preview
Lines: DraftKings Against the Spread Contest
ATS Contest Record: 40-35 (Last Week: 4-1)
Champ’s Picks: 41-32 ATS (ATD: 26-47)
Sammy’s Picks: 34-41 ATS (ATD: 31-44)
Saturday, December 27th
Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)
4:30 PM ET
Insights: The Texans have won 7 straight games, and it’s completely legit with wins over KC (when the Chiefs were still in playoff contention), Indy, Buffalo, and Jax. In fact, Houston has lost just 2 games over its last 12, and one of those was a 3-point loss to Denver in which Stroud went down with a concussion. Now, they head to the west coast to play a Chargers team that is on 4-game winning streak of its own and has won 8 of its last 10. These teams tend to play in low-scoring games due to their top-10 defenses, and that is unlikely to change here in a game with postseason implications. That said, we prefer to take the points with the better defense on Saturday afternoon. The Texans defense is 1st in EPA/play, 3rd in success rate, 7th in sack rate, and 3rd in interception rate, and it hasn’t surrendered more than 21 points since Week 10. The Chargers have similar defensive metrics, but their offense can be stagnant against strong defenses — just like it was against Philly and Jax over the last month and a half. Current number in the market is around -1.5/-2 on LAC, so slight value on Houston from a contest perspective. - S
Pick: Houston Texans +2.5
Confidence: 2.5/5
Anytime TD: Woody Marks
Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers (-2.5)
8:00 PM ET
Insights: Plenty of stink around the Ravens this week after the non pass interference call on Sunday Night against the Patriots only to be questioned about King Henry on the sidelines with the peasants and now Lamar news saying he is Kyler-lite on the video console. Concussion for Love keeps this line respectible, but even with team’s at full health the stats have Packers by 1.5 on neutral and 4.5 at Lambeau. Green Bay’s injury report is loaded with questionable statuses of their own and plenty of question marks including how the Ravens still have playoff life. Packers at home in December but without much conviction. -C
Pick: Green Bay Packers -2.5
Confidence: 2/5
Anytime TD: Josh Jacobs
