NFL Week 16 - Breakdown, Picks, & Bets
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🏈NFL Week 16 Preview
Lines: DraftKings Against the Spread Contest
ATS Contest Record: 36-34 (Last Week: 2-3)
Champ’s Picks: 34-31 ATS (ATD: 22-43)
Sammy’s Picks: 31-36 ATS (ATD: 28-39)
Thursday, December 18th - 8:15 PM ET
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (-1.5)
Insights: Two elite teams showcasing their talents in a fight for division and number 1 seeding on full display tonight. Both teams sit at 10–4 ATS with stats giving the slight edge to the Rams (TeamRankings 9.4 > 7.9) and with home field swining it back to the Seahawks around 1.5, exactly in line with the DK line this week. Number of factors to consider in this week’s clash: 5:15 PM ET kick is odd but no advantage to either squad, weather is going to be a slop fest with rain falling all day and winds expected in the 15-20 range all game possibly hindering both passing games. Both teams squad elite defensive lines and run-stopping ability that will put a focus on both quarterbacks’ ability to take care of the ball (Darnold 4 INTs in the first matchup 5 short weeks ago). If Stafford can lead his team to victory on the road, that not only solidifies the Rams as the number 1 seed and homefield throughout the playoffs, but also his case for regular season MVP — especially with Davante Adams on the sidelines this week due to injury. My concern for Darnold on the other side is that I haven’t seen him get back to his play prior to the first matchup with the Rams. Can Kubiak script up a gameplan to allow him to be on the offensive against a suspect secondary in the Rams? Yes. Will Sam feel confident in a closing pocket that is destined to happen with the injuries on the offensive line? Questionable at best. I think we see a defensive battle in the first half with both teams playing conservatively, maybe even a first-to-20 points wins type of game once the second half rolls around. I want to trust Darnold, but the confidence is just not there. Give me the Rams as they get their first win with new baby McVay. -C
Pick: Los Angeles Rams +1.5
Confidence: 2/5
Anytime TD: Colby Parkinson
Saturday, December 20th
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders (+6.5)
5:00 PM ET
Insights: The Eagles got back on track with a 31-0 win over the Raiders at home last week, but does that really tell us anything? Aside from a random win in New England to start the year, the Raiders have been absolutely abysmal on the road: multiple shutouts and multiple games in which they failed to reach 10 points. Outside of that game, the 9-5 Eagles haven’t looked nearly as good as their record indicates lately considering their 22-19 OT L at LAC, 24-15 L at CHI, and 24-21 L at Dallas, not to mention wins over Detroit and Green Bay that were ugly in their own right. Their lead in the division race is comfortable, and that mixed with their consistency issues makes it hard to trust them laying almost a full touchdown on the road against most teams much less a divisional opponent — no matter how bad the Commanders have been. It’s the Marcus Mariota Show from here on out for Washington, but he actually hasn’t been too bad. His last 3 results include a win at NYG, a 1-point overtime loss to Denver at home, and a 3-point loss to Miami in Madrid. As of Thursday around lunch, the market is still -6.5 across the board despite a heavy dose of money on Philly, so let’s go contrarian and take the Commies. -S
Pick: Washington Commanders +6.5
Confidence: 3/5
Anytime TD: Marcus Mariota
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears (+1.5)
8:20 PM ET
Insights: After Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL in the waning seconds of the Chiefs’ playoff-eliminating loss at home against the Chargers, Packers LB Micah Parsons went down with an ACL tear of his own. The Packers were on a roll too, winners of 4 straight going into Denver last week when they let an early lead slip away in an eventual 34-26 loss. I want to say the Packers will probably be fine without Parsons, but it’s tough to actually argue that. The playoff race in the NFC is as close as it gets; Green Bay sits a game behind the very Bears team they will travel to Chicago to play on Saturday and just 1 game ahead of Detroit in the NFC North standings. Not to mention, Parsons was tied with Will Anderson Jr. as the 3rd-best defensive player in the NFL per PFF’s metrics, boasting top-3 marks in sacks and QB hurries as well as a top-10 mark in QB hits. The Packers gave up a very good run-stopper in Kenny Clark to get Parsons, so there will undoubtedly be a hole in the middle of that Green Bay defense now, which is not a good thing now heading to Chicago to play a very good Bears rushing attack. In fact, the Bears are 2nd in attempts and yards per game, 3rd in EPA/rush, 6th in rushing TDs. Though it’s been ugly at times, the Bears have been a machine at home: 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS. Plus, the market is staring to move Chicago’s way. -S
Pick: Chicago Bears +1.5
Confidence: 4/5
Anytime TD: Kyle Monangai
