NFL Week 13 - Full Slate Breakdown, Picks, Bets & Survivor
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🏈NFL Week 13 Preview
Lines: DraftKings Against the Spread Contest
ATS Contest Record: 28-27 (Last Week: 2-3)
Champ’s Picks: 25-18 ATS (ATD: 15-28)
Sammy’s Picks: 18-25 ATS (ATD: 20-23)
Thursday, November 27th
Thanksgiving Day
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions (-2.5) - 1 PM ET
Insights: The Lions opened -3 and just like the market this matchup looks like a close divisional matchup with plenty at stake for both sides. Detroit comes in off the overtime win over the the Jameis Winston experience and now on a short week and injury concerns on the offense line, I am concerned that a pressured Goff against a Top 5 defense will be an uphill battle especially against a team with more losses at home than on the road this season with Green Bay. Ultimately, this profiles as a true coin-flip in my eyes and I’ll take the points and dog. -C
Pick: Green Bay Packers +2.5
Confidence: 2/5
Anytime TD: Christian Watson
Kansas City Chiefs @ Dallas Cowboys (+3.5) - 4:30 PM ET
Insights: Kansas City comes in off the last second win vs a good Colts teams and now faces a Dallas team whose defense is much improved and off a come from behind win vs the Eagles. Numbers have KC as top 2 team (behind Rams) despite a 1–4 straight-up on the road. I anticipate we see more strides from Worthy and Rice this week. I see this playing out similar to other Chiefs games this year: Kansas City scoring early, controlling the game, and bleeding the clock late. I have Dak and Love in fantasy this week and placing Dak on the bench as I see Spags giving the right side of this matchup and helping pump the breaks on the Cowboys hype train. - C
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -3.5
Confidence: 3/5
Anytime TD: Kareem Hunt
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) - 8:20 PM ET
Insights: If you like Baltimore, then you’re better off betting them at the current price of -7 rather than laying -7.5 in a contest format with stale lines. That being said, I’m not convinced on Baltimore winning by margin, though I do see a Ravens win here. No Higgins for the Bengals, but Joey Brr is back from injury and Ja’Marr Chase is back from his 1-game suspension. Ravens run is impressive, but if we’re being honest with ourselves, none of the offenses they’ve played since their bye — maybe with the exception of Chicago — instill much fear in opponents right now. Look for Joe to play freely without pressure and to pepper his college buddy throughout. - S
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals +7.5
Confidence: 3/5
Anytime TD: Ja’Marr Chase
Survivor
TBCH Survivor Pick: OUTTT (Week 7 to Colts)
TBCH Survivor teams used to this point: DEN, BAL, KC, BUF, DET, GB, LAC
Want us to help you out in your specific Survivor pool? Message us! We would love to assist.
Friday, November 28th - 3:00 PM ET
Chicago Bears @ Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)
Insights: The 8-3 Bears, four straight wins and victories in eight of the last nine weeks, but stats still have them closer to an average team. They’ve been excellent outside the division (7–1) and strong on the road (4–2), so this feels like too many points for Philly to bounce back after the collapse last week. Add in Ben Johnson’s Top 10 offense and an Eagles secondary now dealing with injuries, I see Chicago being able to match and even overtake the Eagles on the scoreboard especially with Barkley being limited in practice and raised concerns around DeVonta Smith’s status. Typical Bears outcome this season: tight to the end and wouldn’t be shocked if they get the win. -C
Pick: Chicago Bears +6.5
Confidence: 4/5
Anytime TD: Colston Loveland
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Sunday, November 30th
1 PM ET Kickoffs
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (+6.5)
Insights: Here come the Titans! Against the spread at least, on a streak of three straight and each decided by one score. Yes, much of the production has come in garbage time, but I could see them looking at tape the last couple weeks and getting some early momentum this week. Jacksonville known to play down to its opponents and now on the second of back to back road games against a divisional foe. Opposite sideline, this is Tennessee’s fourth straight home game and I only see two winnable games left on the slate. This week and against the Saints Christmas weekend. Duuval cashed for me last week and I wouldn’t be shocked to see Cam outplay Trevor this week. -C
Pick: Tennessee Titans +6.5
Confidence: 2/5
Anytime TD: Cam Ward
San Francisco 49ers @ Cleveland Browns (+5.5)
Insights: Brock Purdy made a few curious decisions in SF’s MNF win over the Panthers, but it didn’t cost him because Bryce Young was on the other sideline. Now the Niners have to travel out east on short rest to Cleveland, where the current weather forecast calls for *checks notes* 23 mph wins, sub-40 degree temperatures, and potential precipitation. That doesn’t sound very comfortable for the Californians. SF defense is banged up, which may provide Shedeur with a little extra time in the pocket, but this is really a play on Cleveland’s defense — which leads the lead in EPA per rush allowed and sack rate, while siting 3rd in EPA/play. -S
Pick: Cleveland Browns +5.5
Confidence: 3/5
Anytime TD: Quinshon Judkins
Los Angeles Rams @ Carolina Panthers (+10.5)
Insights: Rams look every bit a Super Bowl favorite right now, but woof. This is a ROUGH spot. That said, defense tends to travel…and even if it doesn’t, Bryce Young will throw opponents the ball anyway. This will be the first time Young and the Panthers face a top-10 defense in terms of EPA/play since Week 4 at NE. They lost that game 42-13 and were outgained. The only other top-10 defense the Panthers played is Jacksonville in Week 1, which was a 26-10 loss. The silver lining is that neither of those games were at home in Charlotte, but the Panthers have scored just 16 combined points in 2 games at home against the Bills and Saints since beating Dallas 30-27 in Week 6. The Rams are 3rd in EPA/play allowed, including 2nd in EPA/pass and 7th in EPA/rush — in addition to 4th in interception rate. As inflated as this feels for a 10am body clock start time for the Rams, I can only lean their way — though this isn’t a game I would include on your betslip or your contest picks. -S
Pick: Los Angels Rams -10.5
Confidence: 2/5
Anytime TD: Kyren Williams
Arizona Cardinals @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5)
Insights: Buccaneers favored by 2.7 points over the Cardinals via TeamRankings and add in home field this line should be out to 5.5; however, the quarterback does matter and Teddy didn’t look nearly prepared last week. That said, I don’t think the goal was ever to put Baker in harm this week and Teddy early on knew he will be the guy on Sunday. Told you last week great buy low spot for the Bucs after the Rams loss due to the 2nd easiest closing schedule to end the season and it starts this week. Bucky’s back but limited action but more importantly Bowles has the advantage in this one and wouldn’t be suprised if Dean and Reddick give it a go this week. Popular opinion will be to fade Bucs, won’t be easy but fire them cannons with a TB cover this week. - C
Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5
Confidence: 2/5
Anytime TD: Cade Otton
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Jets (+2.5)
Insights: Speaking of games I wouldn’t include on your betslip or your contest picks, this is one right here. Kirk Cousins vs. Tyrod Taylor? What year is it? This is honestly disgusting. At least Fields gives you some upside in the run game. I’m not really sure what to think here. Atlanta’s defense is probably the best unit on the field, but laying points on the road with the Falcons might be more heartburn-inducing than Thanksgiving leftovers. This is the 2nd road game in as many weeks for the Falcons, so give me the Jets — but I hate it. -S
Pick: New York Jets +2.5
Confidence: 1/5
Anytime TD: John Metchie III
New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins (-5.5)
Insights: The Dolphins are on an upward spiral, winning 3 of their last 4, including a strong follow-up after beating Buffalo, while the Saints continue a downward trend and eyes on a top draft pick. Expect a low-scoring game, likely in the 30s rather than 40s. Like the home field advantage spot for the Fins this week and no reason to think momentum shifts in this one. Under a touchdown, no second guessing take the home favorite. -C
Pick: Miami Dolphins -5.5
Confidence: 2/5
Anytime TD: Ollie Gordon II
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts (-4.5)
Insights: After that impressive start, the Colts have lost 2 of 3, but let’s not pretend like a 7-point loss in Pitt and a 3-point overtime loss at Arrowhead are “bad” by any means. In fact, Indy doesn’t have a bad loss to its name, and each of its 3 losses are by only 1 score. That being said, the Colts also needed over team to beat a crappy Falcons team in Germany, which raises some concerns about this team’s floor. Meanwhile, Houston’s defense showcased its ceiling on TNF last week, forcing Josh Allen into 2 interceptions, forcing a fumble, and holding the Bills to 5/16 on third downs. As of Wednesday, Stroud practiced, although he is still in concussion protocol. If I’m reading the tea leaves correctly, he’s going to play. Houston has one of the 3 best defense in the league per the advanced metrics, and Daniel Jones certainly has shown flashes of his old self lately — logging 10 turnover-worthy plays over Indy’s last 3 games. Give me Houston. -S
Pick: Houston Texans +4.5
Confidence: 4/5
Anytime TD: Nico Collins
Sunday, November 30th
4 PM ET Kickoffs
Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks (-10.5) - 4:05 PM ET
Insights: Seahawks statement game loading. Back at home off back-to-back on the road and plenty will say Seabirds have lost their muster and couldn’t finish strong against the Titans after the loss to the Rams. Mentioned last week, it was a clear as day letdown spot and still took some garbage time Cam to cover the spread. Vikings arrive with a rookie quarterback against a Top 3 defense in on of the hardest places to play in the NFL. Yes, Flores can scheme with the best of them in hopes that Darnold will Darnold, but I don’t see it. It won’t take much for Seattle to cover in what I think will be a low scoring output for the Vikes. -C
Pick: Seattle Seahawks -10.5
Confidence: 3/5
Anytime TD: AJ Barner
Buffalo Bills @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) - 4:25 PM ET
Insights: This one’s tough. Bills have failed to cover in 3 of their last 4 road games, with the only cover coming after a bye week. It’s worth mentioning, they will have a mini bye of sorts in this game, as they played on Thursday night in an embarrassing loss in Houston and will have a few extra nights to prepare for the pass rush of Pittsburgh — who just dropped a game in Chicago by 3 points without Aaron Rodgers. I don’t really have much here, and I’m seeing 3s and 4s in the current market, so it doesn’t seem like there are many strong opinions out there. What we do know is there is snow, wind, and 30-degree weather forecasted for Sunday in Pitt, so because the Bills have the rushing attack, I’m going to lean their way. -S
Pick: Buffalo Bills -3.5
Confidence: 2/5
Anytime TD: James Cook
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers (-9.5) - 4:25 PM ET
Insights: Why would you want to bet the Raiders? 32nd in EPA/play offensively and 20th on the defensive side of the ball, and Geno Smith’s body language wasn’t all that inspiring last week against the Browns. Probably because he was sacked 10! times. The Chargers are 7th in sack rate, and were able to get to Geno 3 times in their 20-9 win over LV earlier in the year. Other than LAC’s offensive line injuries, I’m not sure why the Raiders would be in better position for success now than they were then. Another game I probably don’t actually want to invest in, but I’m not picking in the Raiders in any format ever here. Oh yeah, Chargers are off a bye. -S
Pick: Los Angeles Chargers -9.5
Confidence: 2/5
Anytime TD: Oronde Gadsden II
Sunday, November 30th
Sunday Night Football - 8:20 PM ET
Denver Broncos @ Washington Commanders (+6.5)
Insights: Ask a fan their take on the Broncos and I promise you they will have a strong one, either way. 8-game win streak, coming off a bye and facing a Washington team at home that looks feisty. Denver’s offense is beyond violatile but the defense with Surtain back is the calling card and on the road where they have played very well. I think Mariota can keep this within the number in primetime and have a slight hope for a Scary Terry game. Expecting rust for Denver out of the gate so would bet Commanders first half and hold on like hell to win it on the field.
Pick: Washington Commanders +6.5
Confidence: 1/5
Anytime TD: Bo Nix
Monday, December 1st
Monday Night Football - 8:15 PM ET
New York Giants @ New England Patriots (-7.5)
Insights: I’m expecting Jaxson Dart to be back for this game, though I’m not sure it’s going to matter for the depleted Giants. The Pats won ugly last week in Cincinnati, which is scary for the rest of the league, and with a bye week on deck after an ugly performance, I’m expecting Mike Vrabel to have his boys completely focused on working out the kinks before a massive divisional showdown in Foxboro against Buffalo after a week off. However, NYG is 3-0 ATS in their last 3 and 5-2 ATS in their last 7, while NE 1-3 ATS in its last 4 after a run of 5 straight covers. Without having a bye yet, it makes sense, as the Pats might be running out of steam. Lean NYG, but nothing strong. -S
Pick: New York Giants +7.5
Confidence: 2/5
Anytime TD: Hunter Henry
Contest Picks
Chicago Bears +6.5
Houston Texans +4.5
Cincinnati Bengals +7.5
Cleveland Browns +5.5
Seattle Seahawks -10.5
Pending Futures
Champ: Seattle Seahawks over 10.5 wins (-140) - Added Week 9
Sammy: Baltimore Ravens over 9.5 wins (+135) - Added Week 9