NFL Playoffs Divisional Round - Breakdown, Picks & Bets
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Saturday, January 17th
Lines and odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos (-1.5) - 4:30 PM ET
Insights: The Broncos enjoyed a bye week to rest and prepare for their playoff run last weekend while the Bills were battling the Jaguars in Jacksonville. The Bills trailed 24-20 with 4 minutes to play before putting together a 9-play, 66-yard touchdown drive to take a 3-point lead. Then, they picked off Trevor Lawrence with a minute left to seal the deal. Now, they head to Denver to face a Broncos team that lost just 1 game from Weeks 4 to 18. Buffalo is extremely thin at receiver due to multiple injuries, so they need guys like Keon Coleman to step up, while leaning on James Cook and Josh Allen as runners, in addition to their tandem of talented tight ends. For our money, the winner of this game will represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, but Buffalo’s cross-country voyage on short rest is not going to be easy to overcome against a Denver defense that is 8th in EPA/play allowed and 1st in success rate. Buffalo’s porous run defense won’t do them any favors either, as the Bills allowed the most rushing TDs to running backs during the regular season, along with the 6th-most yards. For what it’s worth, playoff teams on short rest in the Divisional Round or later are just 6-15 SU in the last 23 years. We like Denver here.
Pick: Denver Broncos -1.5
Confidence: 3/5
Anytime TD: RJ Harvey
