NFL Playoffs Conference Championships
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Sunday, January 25th - AFC Championship - 3:00 PM ET
New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos (+4.5)
Sammy’s Insights:
It’s really a shame to see Bo Nix go down the way he did. Him and Sean Payton seemingly have an awesome chemistry, and it shows on the field — even if the efficiency numbers leave a bit to be desired. However, none of that matters now that Nix broke his ankle and is out for the remainder of the playoffs. Insert Jarrett Stidham, an NFL journeyman, and the Denver Broncos’ offensive upside is somewhat capped. With Nix under center, the Broncos were 10th in EPA/play and 17th in success rate, which actually isn’t as good as it sometimes looks on the field. That being said, the Pats have an exploitable run defense that ranks 16th in EPA/rush. I’d expect Payton’s game plan to be centered around the run with RJ Harvey and potentially even JK Dobbins, who was back at practice as a limited participant for the first time since his injury back in November. His return would be a huge shot in the arm for this offense. On the other side of the ball, Denver is elite. The Broncos are 1st in success rate and 8th in EPA/play, but, like New England, their defensive weakness is against the run. Ultimately, I see both of these offenses moving the ball consistently through the ground game. I’m not particularly adamant about one side or the other, but I will lean to Denver as the home underdog in what may end up being a contrarian spot — though the Broncos have attracted enough money to push the spread down to a flat 4 in some spots.
Pick: Denver Broncos +4.5 (-115) (DraftKings)
Confidence: 2/5
Anytime TD: RJ Harvey
Champ’s Insights:
This AFC Championship is tighter than the quarterback headlines suggest. Power ratings make New England -1.5 on a neutral, and while the Bo Nix injury clouds the numbers, this stage matters. Sean Payton has proven he can win with backups, but conference title games are different—and Josh McDaniels’ past struggles in Colorado aren’t enough to fade him here. Both offenses match up well against defenses that feel overrated, making OVER 42.5 the best look. Denver should script well early with screens and tempo, but New England has consistently delivered on the road, covering every time as a road favorite. Preseason chatter on Stidham doesn’t move the needle in this spot. Expect first-half swings, vertical shots from Drake Maye, steady production from Henderson, and a tight fourth quarter where finishing matters. Denver needing a late touchdown to cover in which they can’t convert.
Pick: New England Patriots -4 (-110) (BetMGM)
Confidence: 3/5
Anytime TD: Stefon Diggs
NFC Championship - 6:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (-2.5)
Champ’s Insights:
Pick: The NFC West has been the league’s powerhouse all season, and it’s fitting that half the division is still standing with a Super Bowl berth on the line. Power ratings make this nearly a coin flip—Seattle about +1 on a neutral—which supports Seahawks -3 to -4 with true home-field advantage. The game ultimately comes down to who blinks first: Sam Darnold under pressure or Sean McVay in a high-leverage spot. Darnold has been sharp when clean, but the Rams know his tendencies, evidenced by six interceptions against them this season. Seattle’s left tackle injuries are a concern, but special teams, balance, and depth still favor the Seahawks and I think MacDonald and Kubiak will come up with a gameplan to help get Sam into the proper reads without turnovers. On the other side, Stafford’s finger and colder-weather limitations lower the Rams’ ceiling, and McVay has struggled to deliver a strong first-half plan since mid-December, getting outcoached early in both playoff games. He may be due, but that’s not a bet worth making. Hot take: McVay is more likely to blink than Darnold, and Seattle’s environment and situational edges tilt this their way. The Seahawks’ defense is the best unit on the field, and that’s the difference.
Pick: Seattle Seahawks -2.5 (-104) (FanDuel)
Confidence: 2/5
Anytime TD: Kenneth Walker III
Sammy’s Insights:
I’m fairly aligned with Champ here. This will be the third straight road playoff game for the Rams, which is difficult for any team — even one led by a Super-Bowl winning head coach and a potential future Hall of Famer in Matt Stafford. We know what Sam Darnold is and what is he not. While he can turn into a turnover-prone QB like Caleb Williams was last week, it’s worth mentioning that he has just 1 turnover-worthy play in his last 3 games, though he wasn’t asked to do much last week due to the blow-out nature of the win over San Francisco. With all 6 of his turnover-worthy plays being intercepted in 2 games against the Rams this season, you could argue that he’s been a bit unlucky in that aspect. Also worth noting, Stafford has 25 turnover-worthy plays this season — 6 more than Darnold — including 11 since the Rams blew that lead to Seattle in Week 16. Unlike Darnold, he’s been lucky he has just 9 interceptions this year.
Stafford and the Rams have actually left a bit to be desired when it comes to their third-down offense in the playoffs. LAR went just 3/13 against Carolina and 5/16 against Chicago which is not exactly settling if you’re a Rams fan or Super Bowl Future holder — especially against one of the best third-down (and overall) defenses in the league. I just can’t get past Seattle’s comeback win over LA at home, when they faced a 30-14 deficit in the 4th quarter before ultimately winning 38-37. Since then, the Rams haven’t really looked great outside of their win over Arizona. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have won each of their 3 games since then by double digits, allowing just 19 total points in the process — all against playoff teams (Carolina, San Fran twice). Not to mention the special teams contributors for Seattle. I just can’t go against the Hawks in front of the 12s.
Pick: Seattle Seahawks -2.5 (-104) (FanDuel)
Confidence: 4/5
Anytime TD: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
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