Genesis Invitational
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Last Week’s Recap
A Belgian Masterclass on Grass!
Thomas Detry, +9000 pre-tournament Belgian longshot, racked up 28 birdies for the week at TPC Scottsdale in route to a Touchdown and Extra Point victory at the Waste Management Phoneix Open on Super Bowl Sunday. Detry showed poise all weekend and capped it off as he nearly aced the par 3 16th on Sunday. He credits pre round meditating and ice baths on the weekend as the receipe for success to calm the nerves. Incredible display from the first time PGA Tour winner!
Condolences to clubhouse patrons who endured any of the following Sunday sweats:
Daniel Berger (+10000) and Rasmus Hojgaard (+6000) gave the clubhouse something to sweat on Sunday as they played in the final group with Detry. Both were able to get within a couple shots of Detry on the weekend; however, Detry was the deserving champion.
Si Woo Kim started slow out of the gates on Thursday (+2 74), but turned it around over the next 3 days (66-67-67) good enough for a T21 finish and another six-figure paycheck, $100,280.00) for the One and Done Contest. Clubhouse is taking aim at their first seven-figure payout at the third Signature Event of the season this week!
Top Strokes Gained Leaders at the WM Phoneix Open via DataGolf.com
Sammy’s Patio Preview
Genesis Invitational
Usually played at Riviera but being held at Torrey Pines this year due to wildfires.
Torrey Pines (South)
La Jolla, CA - near San Diego
Elevated event
$20M purse
$4M to winner
Don’t be afraid to use one of the big dogs in OAD
No cut
Course Info
William Bell design
Renovated by Rees Jones twice most recently in 2019
lengthened, narrowed, new tee boxes, fairway bunkers closer to the fairways
eliminated rough between bunkers and fairways (so ball would roll in)
Extremely long and challenging, especially with wind
Close to 7,800 yards. 7,750+ yards
Par 72
Avg green size - 5,000 sq feet
small-to-average on tour
Avg fairway width - around 25 yards give or take a couple yards
Narrow
Fairways and rough: Ryegrass - rough up to 4” - long rough
Greens: Poa Annua
Bumpy and inconsistent
Pebble Beach and Riviera are of similar agronomy
Has played above par every year since 2020 (in Farmers Insurance Open)
Always one of the more difficult courses on tour
Top 10 in OTT difficulty
Top 3-5 in putting
Almost 70% of app shots are going to be 150+
Need to score on the 5s
All 4 easiest holes are P5 560+
2 above 600
5 of top 6 most difficult holes are the long par 4s
Bogey rate of at least 25% on all but 1 (23%)
Considering length and difficulty off the tee and small size of greens, approach play with long irons is going to be a key for success. Obviously driving distance as well.
Key Stats & Trends:
Main Stats to consider:
Shots Gained: Off the Tee
Total Driving - measures player’s driving distance and accuracy
Shots Gained: Approach
Shots Gained: Tee to Green
Shots Gained: Around the Green
Shots Gained: Putting (west coast Poa focus)
Secondary Stats to consider:
GIR%
Bogey Avoidance
Club Head Speed/Carry Distance
Driving Efficiency
Approach from 150-200
Approach from 200-250
3 Putt Avoidance (west coast Poa focus)
Bonus Putting (west coast Poa focus)
P5 scoring 550+
P4 scoring 450+
SG Torrey South
Trends
14 of 17 winners at Farmers had a Top 10 result at Torrey (includes Harris English)
Early Model
Names to deep dive this week:
Collin Morikawa
Scottie Scheffler
Justin Thomas
Adam Scott
Viktor Hovland
Rory McIlroy
Keegan Bradley
Sam Stevens
Tony Finau
Taylor Pendrith
Corey Conners
Cam Davis
Will Zalatoris
Ludvig Aberg
Cameron Young
Rasmus Hojgaard
Champ’s Cove
Similar Type Courses (Comps*)
TPC Harding
Pete Dye Stadium Course
Doral
Corales
Trinity Forest
Innisbrook
Colonial Country Club
Muirfield Village
*Based on Torrey Pines South
Odds of Eventual Champion*
1-25: 3
26-50: 4
51-100: 3
100+: 3
*Based on Genesis Invitational
FORM for Eventual Champion*
2/13 missed the cut in their last start
9/13 Top 20 finish in their last start
11/13 at least 1 Top 25 finish in last 4 starts
9/13 at least 1 Top 10 finish in last 4 starts
*Based on Genesis Invitational
Champ’s Model
Based on Current Season, Non-Filtered Season Stats
Green: Top 100 or better ranking this season
Red: Outside Top 125 ranking this season
Yellow: No Data Available
Model Based on Field Rank
Green: Top 25% in Field
White: Middle 50% in Field
Red: Bottom 25% in Field
Yellow: No Data Available
Initial Genesis Invitational Top 10
Min Woo Lee
Sepp Straka
Gary Woodland
Robert MacIntyre
Thomas Detry
Keith Mitchell
Patrick Cantlay
Wyndham Clark
Matt Fitzpatrick
Adam Hadwin
Check out Wednesday’s newsletter for Final Thoughts, Bets and Daily Fantasy Sports Tidbits!
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