Farmers Insurance Open
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Last Week’s Recap
Revenge Complete as Champ & Looney hit Sepp Straka for the Outright Winner and find redemption after Sam Burns brutal collaspe one year ago.
Also congratulations in store for Sammy who cashed his Top 20 ticket on Alex Smalley and was given a proper sweat with Justin Thomas in his parlay exposure.
Max Greyserman strong week cashing $267,300 for the One and Done Contest.
Duck hook on the 72nd hole gave us Sam Burns vibes from 2024 but onto Torrey!
Top Strokes Gained Leaders at the American Express via DataGolf.com
Sammy’s Patio Preview
La Jolla, CA - near San Diego
Torrey Pines - 2 course set up
Not an elevated event but really good field
Let’s start with North Course to get it out of the way since the golfers will play only 1 round here over the course of 4 days.
North Course (1 round here)
7,258 yards - much shorter than South Course
Par 72
Avg green size - 6,000 sq feet - bigger greens than South
Avg fairway width - around 25 yards give or take a couple yards - still narrow
Greens: Mix of bent and poa
William Bell design - renovated by Tom Weiskopf almost 10 years ago - flipped the hole structure, enlarged greens and removed some trees and bunkers
Average scoring under par every year in last 5 years.
This should be your targeted course for showdown DFS purposes, as there will be plenty more scoring here than the South course.
South Course
Extremely long and challenging, especially with wind
Close to 7,800 yards. 7,750+ yards
Par 72
Avg green size - 5,000 sq feet - small-to-average on tour
Avg fairway width - around 25 yards give or take a couple yards - narrow
Greens: Poa Annua - bumpy and inconsistent - Pebble Beach and Riviera are of similar agronomy
Fairways and rough: Ryegrass - rough up to 4” - long rough
William Bell design, renovated by Rees Jones twice most recently in 2019 - lengthened, narrowed, new tee boxes, fairway bunkers closer to the fairways, eliminated rough between bunkers and fairways (so ball would roll in)
Has played above par every year since 2020 - always one of the more difficult courses on tour
-top 10 in OTT difficulty
-top 3-5 in putting
Considering length and difficulty off the tee and small size of greens, approach play with long irons is going to be a key for success. Obviously driving distance as well.
Key Stats correlated to success at Torrey South:
Main Stats to consider:
Shots Gained: Off the Tee
Total Driving - measures player’s driving distance and accuracy
Shots Gained: Approach
Shots Gained: Tee to Green
Shots Gained: Around the Green
Shots Gained: Putting (west coast Poa focus)
Secondary Stats to consider:
GIR%
Bogey Avoidance
Club Head Speed/Carry Distance
Approach from 150-200
Approach from 200-250 - almost 70% of app shots are going to be 150+
3 Putt Avoidance (west coast Poa focus)
Bonus Putting (west coast Poa focus)
P4 scoring 450+ - 5 of top 6 most difficult holes are the long par 4s. Bogey rate of at least 25% on all but 1 (23%)
P5 scoring 550+ - need to score on the 5s - all 4 easiest holes are P5 560+, 2 above 600.
SG Torrey South - 13 of last 16 winners at Farmers have had a top 10 in the past at Torrey
Trends
10 of last 15 winners 4 or more shots back after R1
12 of last 15 within 5 of lead after R2
10 of last 15 winners within 3 after R3
5 of last 6 winners had a North (R1) / South (R2) course rotation
Champ’s Cove
Composite Courses
TPC Harding
Stadium Course (#TheAmexGolf last week)
Doral
Corales
Trinity Forest
Innisbrook
Colonial Country Club
Muirfield Village
TPC Southwind
Odds of Eventual Champion
1-25: 8
25-100: 5
100+: 2
FORM for Eventual Champion
3/15 Missed Cut in Last Start
10/15 3 Straight Made Cuts
13/15 1 Top 25 in Last 2 Starts
Field Rank Stats
Green: Top 25% In Field
White: Middle 50% in Field
Red: Bottom 25% in Field
Champ’s Top 10 Model
Hideki Matsuyama
Keegan Bradley
Mark Hubbard
Ludvig “Sweed” Aberg
Max Greyserman
Justin Lower
Alex Smalley
Ben Griffin
Kevin Roy
JJ Spaun
Champ’s Top 10 Snippets
Notables who missed out on Top 10 Model & Their Category of Concern
Max Homa 192 DD
Gary Woodland 148 P5
Charley Hoffman 184 PUTT
Maverick McNealy 155 ARD
Victor Perez 189 APP 200+
Sungjae Im 163 APP
Beau Hossler APP
Thomas Detry 141 P3
Will Zalatoris 165 APP 200+, 140 SCR
Taylor Pendrith 168 SCR, 159 175-200
Stephan Jaeger 166 OTT
Daniel Berger 142 APP 175-200, 152 P3
Jason Day 145 APP 200+, 168 PROX
Satith Theegala 141 P3
Current Form & Comp Course History for 5 Players Champ has his eye on this week!
Final Bets
Sammy’s Selections
Ludvig Aberg - parlay exposure, not betting at 10/1. DFS play as well
-On Aberg wherever his best asset (Driver) can be used to his advantage, and this is one of those spots.
-OTT gains in 15 of L18 events
-Top 35 in field of vast majority of the metrics I used in my model
-not much really to say, as his odds reflect how good he is. He’s a threat to win almost any time he tees it up
Will Zalatoris with 3 places each way +3500 (Bet 365)
-6 straight made cuts with 4 top 18s.
-Been pretty good OTT dating back to August (week following cut at Wyndham), gains in 5 of 6
-Approach gains in 4 of last 6
-Around the green gains in 5 of 6
-Putting gains in 4 of 6
-Tee to Green gains in 5 of 6
-Top 5 in field in scrambling from long rough last 30 rounds (key if missing greens)
-2nd in field in SG: T2G at Torrey South L5 years
-Top 3 in field in Total Driving on long courses L2 years
-Top 6 in field in P5 scoring on long courses
Max Homa +3000 with 5 places each way (Bet 365)
-will be popular but I am a Homa fan and won on him here in 2023, so maybe this is a FOMO bet BUT
-He has gained OTT in last 5 events
-Has gained 3 of last 4 events T2G
-Really knows how to read and putt on this west coast poa greens
-has a storied history at Torrey including 4 top 20s last 5 starts
-think he will be in the mix in the 4th round even if he falls short of a win, hence E/W exposure
Taylor Pendrith +3975 (oddsboost; Fanatics) with Top 20 +150 (includes ties, DK)
-Another guy that can mash the ball, top 12 in carry distance in the field
-Has gained T2G in all but 2 events (one being the presidents cup) since July
-putter isn’t the best, but doesn’t really let him down either. Has been solid for the most part
-solid scrambler from the rough
-Top 25 in Approach L16 rounds (good form), long irons don’t kill him
Stephan Jaeger +6000
-Either in the mix or finishes near the cut line, so at 60/1 i really like what he brings to the table as far as his ceiling is concerned
-Top 10 in field in Total Driving on long courses, par 4 scoring on long courses
-Finished 3rd here last year despite a small loss in SG: OTT and SG: P
-Putting gains 5 of last 7
-Solid form in SG: Approach, gains in 3 of last 4
Chan Kim 200/1 and Top 20 +450
-complete long shot, but love the way he profiles for this course
-Top 15 in the field in recent Approach form
-Top 20 in the field in GIR on long courses
-26th in field in Approach 150-200, 20th in 200-250 (long irons are an asset)
-Top 20 in Par 5 scoring on long courses (all of this is correlated)
-Driver is also an asset on long courses
-hasn’t been in the best form, but just seems like he needs driver to return to form. Rest of game is fine.
-putting isnt the best, definitely the worry when betting on him.
-hasn’t won on PGA tour and was cut from this event last year, but was a winner on Korn Ferry and had some solid performances on longer courses at the start of last season.
-finished top 20 7 times in 2024
-Alex said it best, if Luke List can win here…
Champ’s Crew
Win
Keegan Bradley+2250 - 2u
Max Homa +3000 - 1.55u
Stephen Jaeger +5000 - 0.95u
Taylor Moore +10000 - 0.50u
Gary Woodland +10000 - 0.50u
Hat Tips of the Week
(Players I think COULD win, but I WON’T BET due to poor odds)
Hideki / Sweed / Willy Z / Greyserman / Theegala
One and Done Pick of the Week
(Select ONE player per tournament, once used they cannot be used again.
Earnings a player wins at the end of week is your earnings for the week.
Winner based on the highest amount of earnings made by each selected player)
The Sentry - Hideki Matsuyama - 3,600,000
Sony Open - Russell Henley - 195,025
American Express - Max Greyserman - 267,300
Farmers Insurance Open - Keegan Bradley
Looney’s Loons
Win
Keegan Bradley +2600
Max Homa +3300
Stephen Jaeger +6000
Luke Clanton +8800
Taylor Moore +9000
Gary Woodland +9000
Michael Thorbjorsen +10000
DP World Tour: Ras al Khaimah Championship (UAE)
Win David Puig +2500
Parlay Parlor - Listen in LIVE to see what Kevin has cooked up this week!
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