Corales Puntacana Championship - Final Bets and Models (incl. player deep dives)
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Champ’s Final Model (Key Stats + Tee Splits)
Tread lightly with large number of players without stats; however, these opposite field events are where the stats and model thrive since marquee names are not in field
Based on Current Season, Non-Filtered Season Stats
Green: Top 100 or better ranking this season
Red: Outside Top 125 ranking this season
Yellow: No Data Available
Final Model Based on Field Rank (Stats + Tee Splits)
Green: Top 25% in Field
White: Middle 50% in Field
Red: Bottom 25% in Field
Yellow: No Data Available
Corales PuntaCana Championship Top 10
Alex Smalley
Harry Hall
Rico Hoey
Hayden Springer
Keith Mitchell
Alejandro Tosti
Kevin Roy
Steven Fisk
Chan Kim
Max McGreevy
TOP 10 MODEL PLAYER DEEP DIVE
Alex Smalley
Betting Odds: +1750 (HardRock)
Ranks 1st in my Top 10 for the week
Top 75% in field across all stats
Top 20 This Season: TG/OTT/BS/ARD/SCR/BA/P4
SG Gains: 5/6 OTT, 2/6 APP, 4/6 ARD, 4/6 PUTT
Top Corales Finishes: 2,6,14,22
Top Comp Finishes: 2,6,6,10,14,18,22,37
Insights:
3 straight missed cut is worrisome but could of been fatigure perphaps. 1 week off over 9 weeks. Could also just not be a fan of Texas Golf. Either way in this field and with his history around Corales, including a runner-up in 2022 and a 6th in 2024. I see a bounce back for Alex. Question for clubhouse patrons will be can you handle the price of less than 20/1 for a non-winner on the PGA Tour and off 3 straight MC.
Harry Hall
Betting Odds: +2000 (HardRock)
Top 75% in field across all stats this week except approaches from 200+ (bottom 25%).
Top 10 in field: ARD, BOB, P4, PUTT
OTT (126th on season) and APP (157th 200+ and 127th in Proximity) is the concern for
a course that requires length and long iron play
SG Gains: OTT 3/6, APP 2/6, ARD 5/6, PUTT 4/6
Top Corales Finishes: 13
Top Comp Finishes: 10,13,33,34
Insights:
RBC Heritage is a much better fit for Harry over Corales. That said, he did gain +1.75 with his irons in last start at Valero and is known to be one of the best putters on the PGA Tour. In 2023 here (no shot link data), gained +1.03 SG TOT to the field and had rounds of 71-68-69-68. Former winner at Colonial, I do expect him to make the cut and play well Top 40 range and maybe Top 20 but not jumping on board otherwise. If had signs of a low round around this place, I could be talked into a FRL bet but with only a low 68 that won't cut it for me.
Ricoooooo Hoey
Betting Odds: +3000 (HardRock)
Ranks 5th overall in my model this week
Top 10 this season: TG, OTT, GIR, BS
Bottom 25% in field: SCR, PUTT
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 1/4
Top Corales Finishes: 33
Top Comp Finishes: 33,MC,MC,MC,MC
Insights:
Instead of all gas no breaks with Rico we get all Ball Striking no Cleanup. His putting losses are off the map this season. In 2025, he has 6 instances with putting losses of -1.70 or higher to the field. Paspalum should help and for that reason I do expect him to be a factor this week. When Rico gains at least .5 with putter (asking a lot I know), his finishes in last 25 starts are: 8,11,22,MC,3,6 with the MC at the 2024 US Open. Be thankful for No Shot Link data this week if you happen to place a wager on Rico.
Hayden Springer
Betting Odds: +4000 (HardRock)
Top 75% in field across all stats except Proxmity
Top 100 across all stats this season except App 200+ (106) Scrambling (103) and Proximity (153)
SG Gains: 2/4 OTT, 3/4 APP, 2/4 ARD, 3/4 PUTT
*No SG data for PRO
Top Corales Finishes: MC (72-69)
Top Comp Finishes: 6,33,38,45
Insight:
Hayden mostly known as a long driver and long iron player, course should suit. Top 100 in season ranks across board except Proximity and 106th 200+ and 103rd Scrambling. Overall a very good stat profile for a lesser known player on the PGA Tour. Did play the tour last year with a best finish T3 at the Puerto Rico Open (another opposite field event...) also 7th at Deere, 8th Sanderson and 10th Rocket Mortgage. Notably back in 2023 he won twice in three starts on the Canadaian Tour. Expecting a better finish from Hayden this week, wouldn't be suprised to see him on First Page around Round 1 and on the weekend.
Keith Mitchell
Betting Odds: +1600 (HardRock)
Ranks 2nd in my model in field strength
Top 75% in field except for App 200+
Top 25% in field: TG, OTT, DD, APP, GIR, BS, BOB, BA, P4, P5
SG Gains: 4/5 OTT, 4/5 APP, 1/5 ARD, 4/5 PUTT
Top Corales Finishes: 2,61
Top Comp Finishes: 2,3,8,11,17,19,34
Insight:
Betting favorite Killa Keith has the physical tools to win this week. The question is the six inches between the ears. If he can put 3 out of 4 good rounds together this week that should be enough for him to get back into the winner circle for the first time since his 2019 victory at the Honda Classic. Odds will keep most away from a player looking to get over the hump, but I wouldn't be suprised if Keith added some inspiration to the memory bank after Rory put on the Green Jacket for the first time.
Alejandro Tosti
Betting Odds: +4000 (HardRock)
8th in model without tee splits and 18th once factoring in his 143 LR2 Scoring Avg
Top 75% across all stats in field rank except PUTT
Top 25% in field: TG, OTT, DD, ARD, BOB, P4
SG Gains: 2/4 OTT, 4/4 APP, 3/4 ARD, 2/4 PUTT
Top Corales Finish: DEBUT
Top Comp Finishes: 10,10,43,47,75
Insight:
The mental side again is a thing to mention this week for a player inside my top 10. Tosti is known to get heated and could very well WD, MC, or Win this week. Highly violatile in results and mindset but at 40/1, I see value with Tosti this week. Has shown the ability to make plenty of birdies on the tour. Big question remains on managing the game to avoid the big numbers. T12 and T5 in his last 2 starts on the back of strong OTT and APP play. Hoping the Paspalum surface will help him make a few more putts and if so, he will once again be much watch action good or bad on Sunday.
Kevin Roy
Betting Odds: +6000 (HardRock)
7th in model without tee splits, 21st overall
Top 100 in stats this season across all stats except APP (101), PUTT (141) and LR2 (105)
Top 25% in field: TG, OTT, GIR, PROX, BS, BOB, BA, P4
SG Gains: 2/4 OTT, 1/4 APP, 2/4 ARD, 0/4 PUTT
Top Corales Finish: 50
Top Comp Finishes: 12,17,18,50
Insight: Roy GOAT as he is named inside TBCH for his ability to pile up the stats has once again stats that will make you wonder how this guy doesnt contend more often. Well that would be the flat stick, including only gaining twice in 2025 out of 9 tournaments tracked. Will say, finished T6 at Puerto Rico Open without Shot Link so maybe that is a sign for Kevin this week. Since his opening round 62 at the PRO, he does only have 4 rounds in the 60s over his last 13 rounds. Will say this is a step down in competition compared to Texas Children's Houston Open, Valspar and Players but still to win here you will need 4 in the 60s or something special. Season stats tell more on his early season finishes of 45,18,WD,17,MC,6 over 40,MC,MC,MC over the last 4. Boom or bust for the stats goat.
Steven Fisk
Betting Odds: +5000 (HardRock)
Top 25% in field: TG, OTT, DD, GIR, BS, ARD, P5
Bottom 25%: PUTT
SG Gains: 2/3 OTT, 3/3 APP, 2/3 ARD, 1/3 PUTT
*NO SG for PRO start
Corales Finish: Debut
Top Comp Finishes: 17,28,63
Insight:
PGA Tour Rookie is getting to be more a popular name at least for those that watch week in and week out. Most notablity made back to back eagles in Round 3 of the Mexico Open. Decent finishes over the last 4 weeks are due to gains OTT and APP and not losing wildly putting. Started season with putting losses of -1, -1.41, -2.12, -2.82. Paspalum should help but will still need to make putts to be inside Top 20 after 72. 5 rounds in the 60s out of the last 9 is encouraging but a ways to go. His T4 at PRO, will interest some this week but without much course comps to fall back on I will be on sidelines this week.
Chan Kim
Betting Odds: +2500 (HardRock)
Top 25% in field: TG/APP/ARD/BOB/P3/P5
Bottom 25% in field: OTT/APP 200+
SG Gains: 0/4 OTT, 3/4 APP, 3/4 ARD, 1/4 PUTT
Top Corales Finish: 6
Top Comp Finishes: 6,8,17,42,67
Insight:
Jackie Chan Kim, as I refer to him, won't be punished severely this week with his 158 OTT season; however, I do worry about his 149th ranking for Approaches of 200+. T6 here last year with a closing 65 show he has the game to go low around this place and will just be a question of can he go low for at least 3 rounds. He has a couple 66s to his credit this year but I have a feeling that he will need to replicate that 65 from last year if he is going to contend again this year. Possible yes. At 25/1, I am not sure Jackie Chan will get my money this week. Round Matchups more likely.
Max McGreevy
Betting Odds: +4000 (HardRock)
Top 25% in field: TG, OTT, APP, BS, P3
Bottom 25% in field: APP 200+, SCR
SG Gains: 3/5 OTT, 2/5 APP, 1/5 ARD, 1/5 PUTT
Top Corales Finishes: 50, MC
Top Comp Finishes: 25,48,50,54
Insight:
Personally not the biggest fan of Max due to his ability to wreck my 3ball matchups. Coming off back to back missed cuts in Texas after a strong stretch that has 3 Top 25 finishes in 4 starts, feels very boom or bust for him this week. Since his T4 at the Honda, not that many rounds in the 60s found on his scorecard and without a Top 40 finish here in 2 starts and 0 Top 20 on comps, I will be a pass on Max again, but will not fade him in 3balls for this week at least. Stay tuned.
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FINAL BETS
WIN
Rico Hoey +3000 (1.70u)
Hayden Springer +4000 (1.25u)
Alejandro Tosti +4000 (1.25u)
First Round Leader
Ryan Fox +4000 (0.80u)
Hayden Springer +4000 (0.80u)
Alejandro Tosti +5000 (0.70u)
Hat Tip (Players I think can win but odds keep me off)
Keith Mitchell, Alex Smalley, Chan Kim
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