CFB Semifinal & NFL Super Wildcard Weekend - Breakdown, Picks & Bets
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Happy New Year to our Clubhouse patrons! We are excited for 2026, especially with PGA around the corner as we look to get back to our weekly golf content next week. Before we get there, we have a number of postseason football games to talk about. Let’s start with the College Football Playoff Semifinals on Thursday and Friday and take that right into our NFL discussion for Super Wildcard Weekend.
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Fiesta Bowl: Miami Hurricanes vs. Ole Miss Rebels
I wrote this game up earlier this week on Pickswise. Rather than being redundant, just find the full-game write up for picks on the side and total here. I bet both picks already. I also wrote up and bet a Same Game Parlay for this game, which you can find here. -S
Bet: Ole Miss +3.5 (-114), Over 51.5 (-114)
Confidence: 3/5, 4/5
Anytime TD: De’Zhaun Stribling (Ole Miss), Mark Fletcher Jr. (Miami)
Peach Bowl: Oregon Ducks vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Big Ten rematch here after these teams met in Eugene back in Week 7. The Hoosiers won that game 30-20, outgaining the Ducks 326-267 while controlling time of possession and holding the Ducks to 3/14 on third downs. It was really a dominant showing for Indiana, but one could argue it was also somewhat of a flat spot for Oregon, who was off a bye following the massive win at Happy Valley back before Penn State imploded (I still consider that a good win bc Oregon was arguably the reason the Nittany Lions fell apart).
Indiana hasn’t done anything of late to make me question whether or not it is legit; the Hoosiers seem here to stay under Cig. That being said, there has been a MASSIVE adjustment in market value ahead of this game. Indiana went to Eugene as a touchdown underdog. Fast forward to now, and the Hoosiers are laying more than a field goal on a neutral. About a 10 point swing there. Just based on market value alone, that feels like too many points. My power ratings suggest 2/2.5 points would be more in line with how these teams stack up against one another, but I’m also not here to argue that my power ratings are sharper than Vegas’, because well, that’s simply not true. That said, I’m still leaning with Oregon here at an inflated price.
If there is something to note about Indiana, it’s that its pass defense hasn’t exactly been as elite as the front seven or the offense. Since Week 9, the Hoosiers are outside the top 60 in PPA per pass and passing success rate allowed. The counting metrics like passing yards per game don’t exactly tell that story, but from an efficiency and success rate standpoint, the Hoosiers leave a teeny-tiny bit to be desired in that area, and I expect Dante Moore to be able to capitalize on that and provide the Ducks with enough floor to at least finish inside the number if not spring the “upset.”
I have not bet this yet, as I am waiting for a potential 4, but I will be on the Ducks + the points at anything +3.5 -120 or better before kickoff if that 4 doesn’t surface. As far as the total goes, it’s a slight lean to the over with no strong conviction, but I prefer a 48 or better if you’re going to go that route. -S
Bet: Oregon Ducks +3.5 (-105)
Confidence: 3/5
Anytime TD: Malik Benson (ORE), Omar Cooper Jr. (IND)
Los Angeles Rams vs. Carolina Panthers (+10.5)
Another rematch here, as the Rams traveled to Charlotte on November 30 as a 10-point favorite and ended up losing outright to the Panthers 31-28. I was in attendance, and the game was absolutely awesome despite the rainfall, which seemed to negatively affect the Rams more than the Panthers. Carolina benefited from 3 Rams turnovers, but the Panthers controlled the time of possession, went 7/15 on third downs, and were neck-and-neck with the Rams as far as yardage goes. Can the Panthers pull off another upset? I’d like to think it’s possible, but Bryce will have to have one of his best games of the season, and the Rams will likely have to suffer from similar turnover misfortune. The fact that the Rams averaged 7.2 yards per rush, only had 5 third downs, and were flagged just once is not a great omen this time around for the Panthers. However, I would refute that by saying: playing outdoors on the east coast hasn’t exactly been a dream situation for Stafford and the Rams, especially in less-than-ideal conditions. Fortunately for the Panthers, rain IS expected on Saturday in Charlotte throughout the day once again, which could lead to some variance. The Rams look to be far and away the most popular bet of Super Wild Card Weekend, so I will zig and take the Panthers here, but I admit that it’s not my most confident play. -S
Bet: Carolina Panthers +10.5 (Playable to 9)
Confidence: 2/5
Anytime TD: Jalen Coker
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears (+1.5)
This one has seen two-way action with the majority of people feeling split on the outcome. One of the many games this week with a Sharps (betting experts) vs Joes (betting public) feel to it, where the jerseys and historical results may lead you down one path, but the season tells another. Power ratings say Green Bay by 1.5 on a neutral field, but the injury reports and late season play make me put an asterisk on that, and I would make the Bears a slight home favorite here. ATS season trends favor the Bears (10–7 vs. GB’s 7–10), Bears at home 6-2 SU while Packers a mere 4-4-1 on the road, and the historical data trends on the Packers as road favorites is a nice fade (9-16 ATS for GB as road favorites). Did some digging around teams flopping into the playoffs (riding streak of at least 3 losses into playoffs), and not much sample size as you would expect, but both road teams lost outright as dogs while home favorites won convincingly in the other three scenarios. Couple games this will fit the bill as well: Road playoff favorites of 2.5 or fewer since 2020: 2-4 SU/ATS. Give me the dogs, I mean Bears. -C
Bet: Chicago Bears +1.5 (Playable to PK)
Confidence: 3/5
Anytime TD: Caleb Williams
Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5)
Of all the wildcard games, this one has the feels of an AFC Championship–type game. One team that media and everyone has hyped as THE team — an “if not this year then when” situation with the Bills Mafia — against a team that no one has solid confidence in with regards to their quarterback play and head coach, and that even includes the Jags’ own fans being pessimistic about their chances of continuing to ride this 8 game win streak all the way to the Vince Lombardi Trophy. Jacksonville, a bettor’s darling at 12–5 ATS and 7-2 SU at home, has rolled in their last four with margins that jump off the page while playing at home. Buffalo has only been an underdog twice all season, and this is another spot where they probably should be one in my eye. I expect a typical Bills type game where they go down early, but claw their way back with a high-scoring affair that may look like the Ravens-Steelers fourth quarter from last Sunday Night. Another sharps (Jaguars) vs Joes (Bills) match-up. I feel this is the most coin flip of games on the slate, but as I have said the wrong team is favored here so give me Duvalll. -C
Bet: Jacksonville Jaguars +1.5 (playable to PK)
Confidence: 3/5
Anytime TD: Trevor Lawrence
San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)
The Niners are extremely banged up, most notably to LT Trent Williams, WR Ricky Pearsall, TE George Kittle on the offensive side and to LB Dee Winters, DT Jordan Elliot, and DT Kalia Davis on the defensive side. All of those question marks are on top of Nick Bosa and Fred Warner missing an extended period of time. There are rumblings that Warner could return, but Shanahan has dampened that sentiment throughout the weeke. If I had to guess, Kittle will play, but I’m unsure of the others. In any case, this is not the best spot for the Niners, as they have to venture out to Philly to face what is a rested Eagles squad after they rested their starters last week — a move that cost them the #2 seed. The Niners have not been any good against the run this year (30th PFF run def, 20th EPA/rush, 21st tackling), which is not a good problem to have against the Eagles offense — even if the Eagles haven’t been as efficient on the ground as they were last year. I’m sick of this Philly team, but I would only be on the Eagles here. -S
Bet: Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 (playable to -5.5)
Confidence: 4/5
Anytime TD: Saquon Barkley
Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots (-3.5)
The line has sat at Patriots -3.5 with little movement, but this sets up as a strong Patriots spot. New England 11–5–1 ATS and oddly undefeated on the road, with all three straight up losses coming at home, while a dome Chargers team heads to Foxborough. The Pats finished the regular season in strong form and I don’t see that slowing down here. The Chargers’ résumé is thin—losses to JAX and NYG, and home wins that don’t inspire much confidence—while Herbert’s legs will be on full display during this game (hit that OVER rushing yards prop). However, I have concerns that will lead to a sustainable offense, and I also find myself concerned about the number of hits he will have to get up from over the course of the game. New England’s red zone defense is putrid, but I expect a better result on Sunday Night in front of the home playoff crowd, and for that unit to stand up in a key moment early to gain and keep the momentum. Not sold on Patriots to win the title, but this game will put some playoff hairs on the chest of the regular season MVP. -C
Bet: New England Patriots -3.5 (Playable to -4)
Confidence: 3/5
Anytime TD: TreVeyon Henderson
Houston Texans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (+3)
The final game of the NFL regular season did not disappoint, ultimately coming down to a missed game-winning field goal from Baltimore that sent the Steelers to the playoffs and coach John Harbaugh home packing. Harbaugh will land on his feet quite quickly, but will the Steelers land on their feet in the playoffs against a tenacious Texans defense? Pitt’s offense faltered against many of the top-tier defenses it played this year, which is not exactly a great sign when the Steelers welcome in the Texans. Houston sits #1 in the NFL in EPA/play allowed and #2 in success rate allowed, and it has completely shut down opposing passing attacks for much of the year. That said, Houston is playing on the road, outdoors, on a Monday night in Pittsburgh, and the Steelers have won 20+ straight games on Monday nights. My suggestion would be to bet the under if anything here, but as for a side, slight lean to Houston despite Pittsburgh’s stellar MNF run. -S
Bet: Houston Texans -3
Confidence 2/5
Anytime TD: Nico Collins
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