AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
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Last Week’s Recap
Torrey Pines provided another week with plenty of drama. A Wednesday start was refreshing, but shockwaves sent through the community due to late withdraws from players like Will Zalatoris and Gary Woodland. Ludvig Aberg brought some normalcy with a dazzling -9 / 63 to capture the First Round lead. In the end, 12 players withdrew (spectulation around an illness going around) and a triple digit betting price 115/1, Harris English, taking home the Farmers Insurance Open trophy. Congrats to the Georgia Bulldogs for back-to-back winners on the PGA Tour! Do I hear SEC chants!
Clubhouse patrons came up shy in our bets this week; however, were on the mark with skipping the top of the board and going down to Keegan Bradley who placed better than Ludvig or Hideki Matsuyama after 72 holes and captured another Top 20 for the One and Done Contest along with $132,731.67 as we head to the second Signature Event of the season, Pebble Beach!
Top Strokes Gained Leaders at the Farmers Insurance Open via DataGolf.com
Sammy’s Patio Preview
Pebble Beach Golf Links
Signature event
80 golfers
No Cut
Amateurs play Thursday and Friday only
$20M Purse
Winner $3.6M
Used to be a 3 course rotation with Monterey Peninsula - now 2 courses
Spyglass HillGolfer will play only 1 round here, Thursday or Friday
Par 72
7,000-7,100 yards
Greens: Poa Annua - softer and slower than Tour average
7 of 8 hardest holes are Par 4’s
Half the amount of bunkers as PB
Pebble Beach Golf Links
3 round will be played here, including both weekend rounds
Par 72
6,900-7,000 yards
Above average fairway width
Greens: Poa Annua - softer and slower than Tour average
Smallest on PGA tour
2 of 4 toughest holes are Par 3’s
4 of toughest 6 holes are Par 4’s (first 10 holes)
Must score on Par 5’s
A lot of bunkers (100+)
Almost every fairway has bunkers on both sides
Present around most, if not all greens
Rough is cut down due to amateur presence
Stats & Trends
Irons (mostly short irons and wedges) and Putting are crucial for success here (short putts tougher here than Tour average)
Distance mitigated here. Not necessary for success. Doesn’t hurt though.
Driving accuracy tends to be high here because players club down
Around the Green is crucial due to small size of greens (GIR rate below Tour average here)
Key Approach distances (a lot of similar shots, not a ton of creativity)
75-100
100-125
200+ (Par 5’s)
Previous Winners
2024: Wyndham Clark -17; 1-stroke win over Ludgiv Aberg (only 3 rounds, cut short due to weather) *set course record with 60 in Round 3
2023: Justin Rose -18; 3-stroke win over Brandon Wu
2022: Tom Hoge -19; 2-stroke win over Jordan Spieth
2021: Daniel Berger -18; 2-stroke win over Mav McNealy
2020: Nick Taylor -19; 4-stroke win over Kevin Streelman
Early Week Model
Shots Gained: Approach
Shots Gained: Around the Green
Shots Gained: Off-The-Tee
Par 4 350-450
Par 5 scoring
Approach 100-125
Opportunities Gained/Birdies or Better Gained
3-Putt Avoidance (small greens but still more difficult than Tour Avg in <7 foot putts)
Sand Saves
Bogey Avoidance
Shots Gained: Putting - West Coast Poa
Shots Gained: Pebble Beach (GIR Gained Pebble)
Names I’m circling for deep dives:
Justin Thomas
Collin Morikawa
Keegan Bradley
Taylor Pendrith
Tom Hoge
Akshay Bhatia
Corey Conners
Jason Day
Champ’s Cove
Similar Type Courses (Comps)
Cog Hll
Hamilton Golf and Country Club
St Georges Golf and Country Club
TPC Craig (Bunny) Ranch
Winner’s Pre Tournament Odds
1-50: 9
51-100: 3
101+: 3
Winner’s Shots Behind by Round
R1: 12/15 5 or less (6/15 FRL)
R2: 12/15 5 or less (11/15 T5)
R3: 12/14 3 or less (13/14 T4)
FORM (Winner’s Lead-In Form)
10/15 At least 1 Missed Cut in Last Four Starts
14/15 At least 1 Top 20 in Last Four Starts
12/15 At leats 1 Top 10 in Last Four Starts
Champ’s Model
Green: Top 100 or better ranking this season
Red: Outside Top 125 ranking this season
Yellow: No Data Available
Field Rank
Green: Top 25% in Field
White: Middle 50% in Field
Red: Bottom 25% in Field
Yellow: No Data Available
ATT Pebble Beach Pro-AM Top 10
Hideki Matsuyama
Sepp Straka
Russell Henley
Will Zalatoris
Victor Perez
Nick Taylor
Nico Echavarria
Thomas Detry
Tony Finau
Maverick McNealy
Check out Wednesday’s newsletter for Final Thoughts, Bets and DFS Tidbits!
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