Arnold Palmer Invitational + Puerto Rico Open - Bets, Preview & Models
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The rollercoaster that is The Florida Swing!
It all started on Thursday with Jake Knapp becoming the first person to tame PGA National and become the 15th player to break 60 in a PGA Tour event! Pop the veuve for Champ who cashed in on Knapp with his 75/1 First Round Leader Ticket. After the tournament ended on Sunday, Clubhouse patrons sweated another close call with plenty of bullets in the mix (Ben Baseball Griffin T4, Russ Henley T6, Suga Shane Lowry T11, Daniel “Strait Vibin” Berger T25 (sickening weekend, pun intended and another One and Done Contest weekend flame out). Hat top to 1000/1 Saturday Morning winner Joe Highsmith and his caddy Joe Lacava Junior (pops Joe LaCava, caddy for Patrick Cantlay this week and previous caddy for a golfer named Tiger).
THIS WEEK’S BETS
API
Win
Justin Thomas
Champ +2000 - 2.80u
Patrick Cantlay
Champ +2250 - 2.50u
Sammy +3000 - 1.40u
Robert MacIntyre
Champ +5000 - 1.10u
Sammy +6500 (boosted to +8400) - 0.60u
Sammy’s Top 20s
Adam Scott +200 - 1.50u
Robert MacIntyre + Corey “Big Maple” Conners +493 - 1u
Champ’s First Round Leaders
Russell Henley +4400 - 0.60u
Shane Lowry +5000 - 0.50u
Viktor Hovland +5000 - 0.50u
Champ’s Hat Tips
Rory McIlroy
Collin Morikawa
Tommy Fleetwood
Puerto Rico Open
Win
Ryan Gerard
Champ +2250 - 1.95u
Nikolas Norgaard
Sammy +2400 - 1u
Michael Thorbjornsen
Champ +4000 - 1.10u
Lanto Griffin
Champ +4000 - 1.10u
Champ’s First Round Leaders
Ryan Gerard +4000 - 0.75u
Mattias Schmid +5000 - 0.60u
Ben Kohles +6000 - 0.50u
Champ’s Hat Tips
Nikolas Norgaard
Rico Hoey
Bud Cauley
Arnold Palmer Invitational’s Patio Preview
Bay Hill Club & Lodge
Orlando, Florida
Course Comps
TPC Old White
PGA West
TPC Boston
Doral
Annandale
TPC Scottsdale
Signature Event
72 players
T50 + ties make the cut
Par 72
7,400-7,500 yards
Greens: Bermuda
7,500 sq ft
Fast, fast, fast - anywhere from 12-14 on stimpmeter
Architect: Dick Wilson
Renovations: Arnold Palmer
Top 5 on Tour in OTT difficulty and APP difficulty
All 4 of the easiest holes are Par 5’s
30%+ birdie rate on each
Need to score on these holes to have a chance to win
4 of the 6 hardest holes begin and end the round
Holes 1, 2, 17, 18
Par 4, Par 3, Par 3, Par 4, respectively
20%+ bogey rate on each
Unlike PGA National, the rough is penal at Bay Hill
Top 10-15 on Tour in rough penalty
Playing out of the fairway is going to be an advantage
Narrow fairways, plenty of bunkers
3”+ in length and thick
Shots Gained: Approach is King here
Long iron play will be required for success
Ample sand surrounding greens
Check weather throughout the week
Wind will wreak havoc here because of abundance of water and dried out greens (ball will just roll and roll)
Previous Winners
2024: Scottie Scheffler (-15), 5 strokes over Clark
2023: Kurt Kitayama (-9), 1 stroke over English, McIlroy
2022: Scottie Scheffler (-5), 1 stroke over Hatton, Horschel, Hovland
2021: Bryson DeChambeau (-11), 1 stroke over Westwood
Winners Odds
0-25: 7
26-50: 2
51-00: 3
101+: 2
Winners Position By Round
R1: 14/15 <= 5
R2: 15/15 T7
R3: 13/15 <= 3
Winners FORM
12/14 T20 L4S
6/14 0 MC L4S
3/14 WIN L4S
FRL Tee Split
A 8/15
P 11/15
Sammy’s Model
Champ’s Model
Based on Current Season, Non-Filtered Season Stats
Green: Top 100 or better ranking this season
Red: Outside Top 125 ranking this season
Yellow: No Data Available
#APInv Top 10
Sepp Straka
Russell Henley
Rory McIlroy
Min Woo Lee
Robert MacIntyre
Ben Griffin
JJ Spaun
Taylor Pendrith
Daniel Berger
Si Woo Kim
Puerto Rico Open’s Patio Preview
Grand Reserve Golf Club
Rico Grande, Puerto Rico
Course Comps
Silverado
Olympia Fields
Trinity Forrest
PGA National
132 players
Top 65+ ties make cut
Par 72
7500+ yards
Greens: Paspalum
Long Par 3’s
3 of 4 are longer than 200 yards
Only 4 of 10 Par 4s are 450 yards or longer
2 Par 5s are shorter than 550 yards while 2 par 5s are 600 yards or longer
Resort-style course
Mostly flat, generous fairways
Fairway and greenside bunkers
Rough relatively non-penal
The front 9 and back 9 were flipped this year
Tournament will close with 2 Par 3s and 2 Par 4s
Previously closed with 1 Par 3, 1 Par 4 and 2 Par 5s
Previous Winners
2024: Brice Garnet (-19) in playoff over Erik Barnes
2023: Nico Echavarria (-21) 2 strokes over Akshay Bhatia
2022: Ryan Brehm (-20) 6 strokes over Max McGreevy
2021: Branden Grace (-19) 1 stroke over Jhonattan Vegas
Tournament Trends
Brice Garnett finished in the top 10 twice here (21, 22) prior to his win last year
Ben Kohles has 2 top 20s in 2 starts here (22, 24)
Shot a 63 in Round 3 last year
Martin Laird has 2 top 10s in 2 starts here (20, 24)
Henrik Norlander has finished T15 2 straight years here
Vince Whaley played here in 20, 21, 24 and finished T18 or better each time
8 players shot 65 in Round 1 (-7) in 2024
7 players shot 65 in Round 2 (-7) in 2024
Winners Odds
0-25: 2
26-50: 3
51-100: 2
101+: 7
Winners Position By Round
R1: 14/14 <= 5 (1/14 FRL)
R2: 11/14 <= 3
R3: 12/14 <= 2 (6/14 Led)
Winners FORM
2/14 T20 LS
13/14 MC L4S
10/14 T40 L4S
4/14 T20 L4S
Sammy’s Model
Champ’s Model
Based on Current Season, Non-Filtered Season Stats
Green: Top 100 or better ranking this season
Red: Outside Top 125 ranking this season
Yellow: No Data Available
#PROpen Top 10
Bud Cauley
Adam Svensson
Ryan Gerard
Niklas Norgaard
Lanto Griffin
Adam Schenk
Kevin Roy
Chan Kim
Rico Hoey
Jeremy Paul
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