3M Open - Patio Preview, Key Stats, and Early Models
Follow: X - BettorClubhouse IG - TheBettorClubhouse Threads – TheBettorClubhouse
TPC Twin Cities
Par 71, 7,400+ yards
Full field, Top 65 & ties make the cut
Arnold Palmer design
Greens: Bentgrass
Average around 6,500 sqft
Around 12 on Stimpmeter
Rough: Bluegrass
Not extremely penal
Around 3” in length
70+ Bunkers
Water in play on 15 holes
3 of the last 4 years, golfers used driver more than 70% of the time
Driving Accuracy slightly above Tour average
GIR% between 67% and 73.5% last 5 years
Overall proximity has been better than Tour average since 2020
Going-for-green (GFG)% spiked to around 64% or higher last 2 years (Tour average around 59%)
GFG hit green% above 31% last 2 years (Tour average about 23%)
Frequency of Approach shots from 50-125 yards and 175-200 yards above Tour average
Below average on 125-175 yards and about Tour average on 200+
Sand save rate was higher here last year than previous 4 years
Could be explained by new sand that was installed in bunkers in 2024
Average made birdie putt distance and 3-putt avoidance around Tour average
BOB% slightly above Tour average last 2 years
Birdie-to-Bogey ratio was 1.63 in 2023 and 1.34 in 2024
4 Par 3s
Ranging from 177 to 228 yards
Average score just over 3
11 Par 4s
Ranging from 379 to 502 yards
Average score just over 4
5 holes play under par, 6 play over par
3 Par 5s
All around 595 yards
Average score sub-4.6 last 2 years
Need to take advantage here, greater than 50% BOB rate last 2 years on these holes
Scorable course so long as you stay out of the water
Recent Tournament History
2024: Jhonattan Vegas -17 (68, 66, 63, 70); 1 shot over Max Greyserman
2023: Lee Hodges -24 (63, 64, 66, 67); 7 shots over Streelman, Laird, Poston
2022: Tony Finau -17 (67, 68, 65, 67); 3 strokes over Grillo, Im
2021: Cameron Champ -15 (69, 67, 67, 66); 2 strokes over Oosthuizen, Schwartzel, Vegas
FOLLOW EACH MEMBER OF THE CLUBHOUSE CREW ON THEIR SOCIALS!
Champ - @Champs311
Sammy - @SammyAvBets
LISTEN TO US LIVE FROM FERG’S SPORTS BAR AND GRILLE IN DOWNTOWN SAINT PETERSBURG OR ON RADIOSTPETE.COM UNDER THE FLORIDA SPORTS STREAM CHANNEL EACH AND EVERY TUESDAY FROM 7:00 PM EST to 8:00 PM EST.
Key Stats
Tier 1
Shots Gained: Approach
Shots Gained: Off-the-Tee
Shots Gained: Putting (Bent)
Total Driving
Greens-in-Regulation%
Tier 2
Distance from Edge of Fairway
Birdie-or-Better%
Bogey Avoidance
3-Putt Avoidance
Par 5 BOB%
Tier 3
Going-for-Green - Hit Green%
Par 4 BOB%
Approach 50-100 yards
Approach 150-200 yards
Eagle%
Champ’s Comp Courses
Innisbrook Resort
TPC River Highlands
Sherwood Country Club
Muirfield Village
Last 6 3M Open Trends
Odds
0-25: 2022
26-50: 2024
51-100: 2023
101+: 2019, 2020, 2021
Winner’s Strokes Behind Leader by Round
R1: 3/6 (50%) at least 5 shots back
R2: 4/6 (67%) within 4 shots
R3: 5/6 (83%) within 2 shots
Winner’s Lead-In Form
3/6 (50%) missed the cut in their last start
2/6 (33%) finished in Top 20 in their last start
5/6 (83%) with at least 1 Top 12 finish in their last 4 starts
3/6 (50%) with at least 2 Top 25 finishes in their last 4 starts
1/6 (17%) with a WIN in their last 4 starts
FIRST ROUND LEADER TEE SPLITS
AM 50% (2022, 2023, 2024)
PM 67% (2019, 2020, 2021, 2022)
*results can include instances where FRL from both AM/PM and both get credited with a win.
Early Models
