Legend:
Odds: Betting Odds at Bovada as of Yesterday at 4:30 PM EST
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Top 75% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 75% in the Field
Top 25% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 25% in the Field
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
WWT Results: Finishes at World Wide Techology Championship
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Plantation Course at Kapalua, Vidanta Vallarta & Puntacana Resort (Corales Golf Course)
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Ryan Gerard
Odds: +1200
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 175200 (108), ARD (135), ARD/SCR AVG (111), BOB 175200 (119)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude ARD
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, OTT/DD AVG, APP, APP 150175, PUTT, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB AVG, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/3, APP 3/3, ARD 1/3, PUTT 1/3
FORM: 4/14/27/30
WWT Results: 14/MC (3 of 6 Rounds in 60s; Low: 66)
Comp Results: 17/33/MC
Insights: Ryan Gerard arrives in Cabo as the odds-on favorite with plenty of reasons to like his chances. He ranks inside the Top 10 in this field in Tee-to-Green, Birdie or Better, BOB from 150–175 and Par-4 Scoring, while gaining both OTT and APP in each of his last three measured starts. The recent results back it up, too, with six Top 10s and three Top 5s over his last 15 starts, including a runner-up at the Memorial. Still, 12th in my overall model at +1200 doesn’t exactly scream value. The short game remains a concern, ranking 73rd of 92 around the green, while the putter has been his weakest link despite a strong season overall. Gerard finished T14 here in 2024, recovering from a slow opening round with three straight rounds in the 60s, but he was 112/1 that week. Quite the difference this time around. He hasn’t played since Japan nearly a month ago, and while the rest may be beneficial, I wouldn’t be surprised to see another sluggish start. There’s no questioning the talent or ball-striking consistency, but at this price I’m happy to wait and see. If he starts slowly, perhaps we can get involved closer to 30/1 rather than paying 12/1 before a ball is struck. Hat Tip for now, with an eye on the live market.
Ben James
Odds: +1800
Stats: N/A
Top 75% Rank: N/A
Top 25% Rank: N/A
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 16/MC/5/2
WWT Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 4/16
Insights: I called for a bounce-back after Bermuda in last week’s Deep Dive, and Ben James delivered, although it certainly didn’t start that way. An opening 72 put him behind the eight ball before closing 64-68-65 to backdoor a Top 20, leaving us wondering what could have been without Thursday’s struggles. The driver was elite, producing his best OTT performance of 2026, while the irons returned to positive territory after Bermuda. The short game remains worth monitoring, losing around the green for the third time in five starts, but outside of that opening round, James looked every bit the player we’ve been backing. His T4 at Corales earlier this year adds another checkmark, and the Paspalum surfaces, generous fairways and birdie opportunities at El Cardonal should suit him beautifully. Even without official season rankings, his underlying numbers suggest one of the strongest all-around profiles in this field, particularly in GIR, scoring and ball striking. At +1800, we’re paying a premium for a player still chasing his first PGA TOUR victory, but I’m willing to do it. I expected James to contend last week, and after watching those final 54 holes, I’m even more convinced he can be a factor in Cabo. Outright consideration once again, but haven’t made the click just yet.
Ben Kohles
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude DD (151), OTT/DD AVG (96), ARD (66), PUTT (58), BOB 175200 (64)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude DD
Top 25% Rank: All exclude DD, OTT/DD AVG, ARD, PUTT, BOB 175200
SG Gains: OTT 2/3, APP 3/3, ARD 2/3, PUTT 2/3
FORM: 17/17/13/15
WWT Results: 63 (69-69-69-72, 2025)
Comp Results: 25/28/42/59/MC/WD
Insights: Ben Kohles checks just about every box we’re looking for at El Cardonal, entering the week 1st overall in my model and ranking Top 5 in this field across a ridiculous number of categories, including Tee-to-Green, Approach, GIR, Proximity, Birdie or Better, Bogey Avoidance and scoring on all three par types. The one glaring weakness is distance, ranking 82nd of 93 players, but everything else is pure gold. He’s made 11 straight PGA TOUR cuts and 16 straight overall, with four consecutive finishes of T17 or better. His last start at Bermuda featured his best OTT performance of the season, although he lost strokes putting for just the second time in his last 10 measured events. There’s also a win at the BMW Charity Pro-Am on the Korn Ferry Tour back in June, giving him five career victories on that circuit. Course history isn’t overly convincing after a T63 here last year despite three opening rounds of 69, but a Top 25 at Vidanta and positive OTT and putting performances in two of three starts there offer some encouragement. Sure, the lack of distance deserves consideration on a 7,452-yard layout, but I’m not letting one weakness overshadow this much statistical strength and consistency. At +3500, Kohles is a model pick that has my eye with heavy interest.
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Ben Griffin, Max Greyserman, Marco Penge,
Kevin Roy, Jordan Smith, Jackson Suber and Kris Ventura!
Ben Griffin
Odds: +1400
Stats: Top 125 exclude APP 175200, PROX, BOB, BOB 175200
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 175200, PROX, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB AVG
Top 25% Rank: TG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BA, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 4/44/42/MC
WWT Results: 1/24/23/59 (11 of 16 Rounds in 60s; Low: 63 twice)
Comp Results: 4/4/14/MC
Insights: Ben Griffin nearly made us regret last week’s Fade of the Week, flirting with the first-round lead before finishing T4 at Vidanta. The opening charge came largely from gaining over four strokes putting while losing on Approach, and although the irons eventually showed some life, the performance still felt a little rusty after the layoff. Four rounds in the 60s and -19 certainly aren’t anything to dismiss, though, especially with Griffin now returning to defend his title at El Cardonal. He knows how to win here, entering the weekend three back last year and Sunday two behind before firing a closing 63 to finish at -29 and two clear of the field. The course and comp history are difficult to ignore, with four straight made cuts here, 11 of 16 rounds in the 60s, and T4 finishes at Vidanta in consecutive years. Add five Top 10s over his last 15 starts and there’s plenty to like, even if the current statistical profile isn’t screaming +1400. The putter has gained in just one of his last four measured starts, and the longer-approach numbers remain concerning, but Griffin has repeatedly shown he can follow strong finishes with another big performance. After fading him last week, I’m expecting a legitimate title defense and wouldn’t be surprised to see him in contention again Sunday. Still a Hat Tip at +1400, but I’ll be looking for exposure through Thursday markets or a tournament matchup rather than paying the outright price.
Max Greyserman
Odds: +4500
Stats: Top 125 exclude APP, GIR, APP 150175
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 150175, APP AVG
Top 25% Rank: DD, PUTT, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, P5
SG Gains: OTT 1/3, APP 1/3, ARD 1/3, PUTT 2/3
FORM: 11/WD/61/MC
WWT Results: 62/4 (6 of 8 Rounds in 60s; Low: 64)
Comp Results: 11/24/40/WD
Insights: Greyserman nearly made me regret talking myself out of him last week after the Bermuda withdrawal, bouncing back with a T11 at Vidanta and gaining nearly across the bag. The putter delivered his fourth-best performance of 2026, while the irons produced a Top 5 showing on the season, making that performance even more encouraging with Vidanta serving as one of our strongest comps this week. Greyserman also has some unfinished business at El Cardonal, finishing T4 in 2024 before slipping to T62 last year. He opened his course career with six straight rounds in the 60s, including a low of 64, before that streak ended over the weekend last year. The season-long numbers and recent form don’t tell the entire story, especially with Approach and GIR outside the Top 125, but he still ranks Top 20 in this field in Driving Distance, Putting, Birdie or Better and BOB from 175–200. The putter and driver are going to be critical, and while he’s still searching for his first Top 5 of 2026, two Top 10s and last week’s performance suggest there’s more upside than the recent results indicate. Take a look back at 2025 and it’s not difficult to envision Greyserman finding himself in contention again. I’m still looking for a little redemption from that Detroit playoff defeat, and a 45/1 outright ticket has a pretty nice ring to it.
Marco Penge
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 125 exclude APP, APP 150175, PUTT, BA
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 150175, PUTT, P3
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, DD, OTT/DD AVG, APP 175200, BOB 175200, BOB AVG
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 1/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 40/20/68/10
WWT Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 40
Insights: Marco has the kind of power that should translate beautifully to El Cardonal, ranking Top 10 in this field in Off-the-Tee, Driving Distance and our combined OTT/DD metric. The driver has gained in three of his last four measured starts, and with generous fairways and plenty of scoring opportunities, there’s little reason to believe distance won’t be a weapon this week. Still, the rest of the profile leaves me wanting more. He’s gained on Approach just once in his last four measured starts and ranks 86th of 93 players putting, a dangerous combination when winning likely requires something approaching 25 under par. Last week at Vidanta, he entered the weekend inside the Top 10 before a Saturday 73 knocked him off the pace, with above-average driving and short-game numbers unable to overcome another poor putting performance. We’ve seen the upside, including four rounds in the 60s at Biltmore with a Saturday 64, but sustaining that level for four days remains the question. Making his El Cardonal debut, last week’s performance gives us a reasonable projection, although I think his recent results say more about his ability to compete than an overwhelming statistical fit. I like Penge for short-term exposure in the three-ball markets, but at +3500, there are stronger outright cases for my money.
Kevin Roy
Odds: +7000
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP (112), APP 150175 (124), APP 175200 (129), BOB 150175 (165)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 175200, BOB 150175
Top 25% Rank: TG, PROX, BS, ARD, P5
SG Gains: OTT 2/3, APP 2/3, ARD 0/3, PUTT 1/3
FORM: MC/64/13/32
WWT Results: MC/MC (1 of 4 Rounds in 60s; Low: 69)
Comp Results: 17/18/31/50/62/MC
Insights: I’ll be the first to admit Kevin Roy disappointed me last week at Vidanta. After back-to-back Top 20s in his previous two trips, a missed cut certainly wasn’t what I had in mind, but so is golf. The encouraging part was his best Approach performance of 2026, unfortunately paired with his worst putting performance of the season. That gives me some hope for a bounce-back if the putter simply returns to normal. Roy ranks 27th overall in my model, with Top 20 field rankings in Par-5 Scoring and several recent-form metrics, while his season-long Tee-to-Green, Proximity and Ball-Striking numbers remain encouraging. The concern is that the irons have been inconsistent from key approach distances, and he’s now missed the cut in both appearances at El Cardonal, managing just one round in the 60s. I’m expecting some positive regression this week, and a Top 30 feels like a reasonable outcome if the putter cooperates. At 70/1, last week’s scars are still a little too fresh, and the course history doesn’t exactly help heal the wounds. There’s enough upside to keep Roy on the radar, just not enough conviction to go back to the well at any price.
Jordan Smith
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 100! exclude ARD (124), ARD/SCR AVG (11), PUTT (130)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: All exclude APP 175200, PROX, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 175200, P3, P5
SG Gains: OTT 2/3, APP 2/3, ARD 3/3, PUTT 2/3
FORM: 16/4/26/21
WWT Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 16
Insights: Jordan Smith came up three shots shy of a Top 10 last week at Vidanta, although the T16 felt more like someone left the back door open than a player who seriously threatened the leaderboard. After failing to break 70 through three rounds, a closing 64 finally gave us something to get excited about, helped by his only positive putting performance of the week. Overall, he gained across the bag except on the greens, doing his best work Off-the-Tee. The statistical profile remains impressive, ranking 8th overall in my model and Top 10 in this field in Tee-to-Green, OTT, GIR, Ball Striking, Par-4 Scoring and our combined OTT/DD metric. The putter remains the obvious concern, sitting outside the Top 100 on the season, but there’s enough quality elsewhere to believe another strong finish is coming. Making his El Cardonal debut, last week’s T16 at our key Vidanta comp gives us something to work with, although we’re certainly not holding a full deck of course evidence. Still, that Sunday performance has me thinking we need to go back to the well one more time. The two-time DP World Tour winner continues to intrigue me, and at +4000, I could make a case for Smith over someone like Jackson Suber. Fortunately, that’s a Wednesday decision rather than a Tuesday one.
Jackson Suber
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude DD (87), OTT/DD AVG (78), PUTT (132)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: TG, APP, GIR, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, P3, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 2/3, APP 3/3, ARD 1/3, PUTT 1/3
FORM: 34/41/40/15
WWT Results: 11 (71-65-67-63, 2025)
Comp Results: 34/67/MC
Insights: Suber has been on our radar for quite some time, and this might finally be the week we go back to the well. He ranks 3rd overall in my model and 2nd in season-long field rankings, sitting Top 5 in Tee-to-Green, Approach, GIR, Proximity, Bogey Avoidance and Par-3 Scoring. The irons continue to be his calling card, gaining on Approach in all four rounds last week at Vidanta, while the putter showed some encouraging signs before giving strokes back on Sunday. Unfortunately, that final round also knocked him out of the Top 20 after entering the weekend T11, another example of Suber struggling to put four complete rounds together. The driver has become a concern, losing strokes over the final three rounds last week, and his around-the-green play isn’t exactly inspiring confidence either. Still, there’s plenty to like about his return to El Cardonal. He finished T11 here last year despite opening with a 71, closing 65-67-63 with the low round of the day Sunday and a back-nine 28. That performance came at 120/1, and while we’re paying considerably more this time, the statistical profile is stronger than most of this field. Five Top 20s, three Top 5s and 13 made cuts over his last 15 starts suggest the consistency is there, even if the breakthrough victory remains elusive. His strong showing at the wide-open TPC Craig Ranch only adds to the appeal. At +4000, I think there’s enough to take another shot, although nothing crazy. Placements offer a safer route, and Suber gets First Round Leader interest as well. Check back Wednesday to see how it all shakes out.
Kris Ventura
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 125 exclude ARD, BOB 150175, BOB 175200, P3
Top 75% Rank: All exclude BOB 150175, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, P3
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, DD, OTT/DD AVG, GIR, PROX, BS, SCR, BA, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/3, APP 1/3, ARD 2/3, PUTT 2/3
FORM: 2/34/41/32
WWT Results: 27/MC/MC (3 of 4 Rounds in 60s; Low: 64)
Comp Results: 2/15/25/31/52/MC
Insights: Kris Ventura nearly gave us a victory last week at Vidanta, finishing runner-up after firing the low round of the day Sunday with a closing 63. Four rounds in the 60s and a T2 finish certainly caught my attention, especially with El Cardonal next on the schedule. The statistical fit is impressive, ranking Top 10 in this field in Tee-to-Green, Off-the-Tee, GIR, Proximity, Ball Striking, Bogey Avoidance and both Par-4 and Par-5 Scoring. Last week also featured Top 5 performances of his 2026 season in driving, approach and around-the-green play, suggesting this was much more than a hot putter carrying him up the leaderboard. The comp results support the case, too, with a runner-up at Vidanta and a Top 20 at Corales earlier this year. That success hasn’t fully translated to this event, although Ventura made significant strides last year with a T27 after missing the cut in his previous two appearances. More importantly, he opened with a 64, sitting second after Thursday and just three shots off the First Round Leader at opening odds of 90/1. With four Top 20s, three Top 5s and nine made cuts over his last 10 starts, there’s plenty of consistency to go along with the scoring upside. The question is whether he can maintain that momentum after coming so close last week, but I’m willing to find out. Ventura could be one of my two First Round Leader selections this week, and I like him for DFS given the boom potential. I don’t hate an outright at +3500, but I’d pair it with placements rather than relying entirely on a victory.