2026 World Cup Preview, Odds & Picks
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The 2026 edition of the World Cup feels especially exciting given the fact that it will be played in North America so close to home. Not only that, but the tournament expanded and now includes 48 teams — up from 32 — as well as over 100 matches over the course of nearly a month and a half.
It doesn’t end there, as this feels somewhat like the end of an era in international soccer. This very well could be the last World Cup for a laundry list of soccer (fútbol) legends that includes Lionel Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo, Neymar, Luka Modrić, Kevin de Bruyne, Manuel Neuer, Heung-Min Son, and more, so it’s somewhat bittersweet in that regard.
The vast North American climate will influence this tournament. Some teams will play in air-conditioned stadiums, while others play outdoors in Miami and Mexico, while others play outdoors in Canada, Seattle, and New York. That is absolutely something to monitor, especially in the knockout stages. For example, in a potential England vs. Brazil matchup played in Miami, Brazil are going to be at a huge advantage not only because of the abundance of Brazilians that will be in the stadium, but because of their tolerance to North American summer climate.
We’re in for an amazing tournament. Old and young legends playing on American soil, local viewing times, a USA squad that may have quarterfinal upside in the right path…it all makes for an incredible viewing experience and one for which I cannot wait. Let’s dig into some betting market analysis, shall we?
All lines and odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook unless otherwise noted. Please, PLEASE, PLEASE be sure to shop around for best price before locking in your bets. Odds will vary by book, sometimes vastly — especially in the futures market.
2026 Men’s World Cup - Tournament Winner
Spain +450
France +500
England +650
Portugal +800
Brazil +850
Argentina +1000
Germany +1300
Netherlands +1600
Belgium +2200
Norway +3000
Colombia +3500
Japan +4000
Morocco +5000
USA, Mexico, Uruguay +6000
Switzerland, Croatia +6500
Türkiye +7500
Ecuador +8000
Everyone else +10000 or longer
Insights: If you’re a trends bettor, then you’d like to know favorites typically don’t win (neither do long shots). Spain were the last pre-tournament favorite to win in 2010, and that was the first time it happened since 1994. Also, teams don’t usually go back-to-back, which is unfortunate for Messi and his fellow Argentinians.
Of the two, Argentina are obviously the more attractive bet at more than double the odds of Spain, who aren’t really on my radar given the price. That doesn’t mean they can’t or won’t win, but just like March Madness, I don’t see too much value in tying my money up for a month at a 5/1 return.
That also means I’m out on France, which is a pretty scary proposition. The French have arguably the best attack in the world and have ample international experience, but they are not flawless. Les Bleus’ almighty attack can look mortal against deep, elite defensive blocks that can limit opposing athleticism. Also, I’m slightly concerned about Mike Maignan after he allowed 1.26 goals per 90 minutes in the Nations League while carrying just a 68.4% save percentage and 40% clean sheets. For reference, his save percentage was better than 88% in the Euros before that and his clean-sheet percentage was above 66%. To boot, this is Mike’s first World Cup as the starting keeper after missing the tournament in 2022. He has big shoes to fill behind Hugo Lloris.
Well, that’s three of the six teams with odds of 10/1 or shorter to win the tournament. At +650, I won’t go anywhere close to England, who are way overpriced in my opinion. Not only do they have a new skipper with minimal international coaching experience, but I don’t fancy their chances in the North American climate. Imagine, a quarterfinal matchup against Brazil outdoors in Miami. That would be a tremendous uphill battle for England.
Speaking of Brazil, they are flying somewhat under the radar this year. Usually, they’re one of the favorites at the top off the odds board, so at around 9/1 or 10/1, I’d be lying if I said this price doesn’t jump off the page. Carlo Ancelotti has one of the most accomplished résumés in soccer, and while he has yet to coach at the international level, he is the only manager to take part in six Champions League finals and the only manager to win league titles in all five of Europe’s top five leagues. Needless to say, he adds an incredible amount of tactical structure to this roster, which is still loaded with talent both on the attack and on defense — though I question if they are as talented as they were in years past. It goes without saying, this squad should be just fine in the summer weather and has a relatively easy group draw, but after that, I could see them being exposed to familiar South American opponents that are not intimidated by them.
Portugal is another interesting squad with a decent amount of perceived value, though it’s gradually been extracted as we get closer to the tournament’s start. They have arguably the best midfield in the tournament, accompanied by a rock solid defense with an elite keeper in Diogo Costa. In fact, Costa kept 21 clean sheets in club play, and there’s not a ton of high-level offense in their group. Interestingly enough, the biggest question for this team is finishing given CR7’s age, but there’s still plenty here to be excited about. Assuming they win their group, they’d have a favorable draw until the quarterfinals, where they’d presumably meet Argentina in Kansas City — which makes sense given both teams are priced almost exactly the same. The winner of that game would have to go through likely either Brazil, England, or Mexico(?), and I favor Portual against all three, but all of this could change if there’s a surprise group winner. If you like Portugal (spoiler, I do) make sure to shop around. I wouldn’t take anything under 8/1.
IF all goes according to plan, Spain and France would have to play in the semifinals, which makes their price tag even less attractive. Because of that, I’m going to focus my betting attention on who I think will be playing on the right side of the knockout bracket, especially given the extra perceived value in the number.
World Cup Winner Best Bet: Portugal +800 or better
Various books are at +900, you can use various boosts to get this number over +1000
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