The 2026 edition of the World Cup feels especially exciting given the fact that it will be played in North America so close to home. Not only that, but the tournament expanded and now includes 48 teams — up from 32 — as well as over 100 matches over the course of nearly a month and a half.
It doesn’t end there, as this feels somewhat like the end of an era in international soccer. This very well could be the last World Cup for a laundry list of soccer (fútbol) legends that includes Lionel Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo, Neymar, Luka Modrić, Kevin de Bruyne, Manuel Neuer, Heung-Min Son, and more, so it’s somewhat bittersweet in that regard.
The vast North American climate will influence this tournament. Some teams will play in air-conditioned stadiums, while others play outdoors in Miami and Mexico, while others play outdoors in Canada, Seattle, and New York. That is absolutely something to monitor, especially in the knockout stages. For example, in a potential England vs. Brazil matchup played in Miami, Brazil are going to be at a huge advantage not only because of the abundance of Brazilians that will be in the stadium, but because of their tolerance to North American summer climate.
We’re in for an amazing tournament. Old and young legends playing on American soil, local viewing times, a USA squad that may have quarterfinal upside in the right path…it all makes for an incredible viewing experience and one for which I cannot wait. Let’s dig into some betting market analysis, shall we?
All lines and odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook unless otherwise noted. Please, PLEASE, PLEASE be sure to shop around for best price before locking in your bets. Odds will vary by book, sometimes vastly — especially in the futures market.
2026 Men’s World Cup - Tournament Winner
Spain +450
France +500
England +650
Portugal +800
Brazil +850
Argentina +1000
Germany +1300
Netherlands +1600
Belgium +2200
Norway +3000
Colombia +3500
Japan +4000
Morocco +5000
USA, Mexico, Uruguay +6000
Switzerland, Croatia +6500
Türkiye +7500
Ecuador +8000
Everyone else +10000 or longer
Insights: If you’re a trends bettor, then you’d like to know favorites typically don’t win (neither do long shots). Spain were the last pre-tournament favorite to win in 2010, and that was the first time it happened since 1994. Also, teams don’t usually go back-to-back, which is unfortunate for Messi and his fellow Argentinians.
Of the two, Argentina are obviously the more attractive bet at more than double the odds of Spain, who aren’t really on my radar given the price. That doesn’t mean they can’t or won’t win, but just like March Madness, I don’t see too much value in tying my money up for a month at a 5/1 return.
That also means I’m out on France, which is a pretty scary proposition. The French have arguably the best attack in the world and have ample international experience, but they are not flawless. Les Bleus’ almighty attack can look mortal against deep, elite defensive blocks that can limit opposing athleticism. Also, I’m slightly concerned about Mike Maignan after he allowed 1.26 goals per 90 minutes in the Nations League while carrying just a 68.4% save percentage and 40% clean sheets. For reference, his save percentage was better than 88% in the Euros before that and his clean-sheet percentage was above 66%. To boot, this is Mike’s first World Cup as the starting keeper after missing the tournament in 2022. He has big shoes to fill behind Hugo Lloris.
Well, that’s three of the six teams with odds of 10/1 or shorter to win the tournament. At +650, I won’t go anywhere close to England, who are way overpriced in my opinion. Not only do they have a new skipper with minimal international coaching experience, but I don’t fancy their chances in the North American climate. Imagine, a quarterfinal matchup against Brazil outdoors in Miami. That would be a tremendous uphill battle for England.
Speaking of Brazil, they are flying somewhat under the radar this year. Usually, they’re one of the favorites at the top off the odds board, so at around 9/1 or 10/1, I’d be lying if I said this price doesn’t jump off the page. Carlo Ancelotti has one of the most accomplished résumés in soccer, and while he has yet to coach at the international level, he is the only manager to take part in six Champions League finals and the only manager to win league titles in all five of Europe’s top five leagues. Needless to say, he adds an incredible amount of tactical structure to this roster, which is still loaded with talent both on the attack and on defense — though I question if they are as talented as they were in years past. It goes without saying, this squad should be just fine in the summer weather and has a relatively easy group draw, but after that, I could see them being exposed to familiar South American opponents that are not intimidated by them.
Portugal is another interesting squad with a decent amount of perceived value, though it’s gradually been extracted as we get closer to the tournament’s start. They have arguably the best midfield in the tournament, accompanied by a rock solid defense with an elite keeper in Diogo Costa. In fact, Costa kept 21 clean sheets in club play, and there’s not a ton of high-level offense in their group. Interestingly enough, the biggest question for this team is finishing given CR7’s age, but there’s still plenty here to be excited about. Assuming they win their group, they’d have a favorable draw until the quarterfinals, where they’d presumably meet Argentina in Kansas City — which makes sense given both teams are priced almost exactly the same. The winner of that game would have to go through likely either Brazil, England, or Mexico(?), and I favor Portual against all three, but all of this could change if there’s a surprise group winner. If you like Portugal (spoiler, I do) make sure to shop around. I wouldn’t take anything under 8/1.
IF all goes according to plan, Spain and France would have to play in the semifinals, which makes their price tag even less attractive. Because of that, I’m going to focus my betting attention on who I think will be playing on the right side of the knockout bracket, especially given the extra perceived value in the number.
World Cup Winner Best Bet: Portugal +800 or better
Various books are at +900, you can use various boosts to get this number over +1000
Like we do with our golf-betting content, paid subscribers get the full meal. Become a paid subscriber to see our Group breakdowns and bets, as well as our golf models and bets for the rest of the 2026 PGA season.
Official bets listed at the end
Group A
Mexico (-140)
Korea Republic (+360)
Czechia (+380)
South Africa (+1300)
Insight: Mexico will play every group game in their home nation, which is a massive edge for the side. That alone is enough to make this price appealing, before you even factor in the fact that they haven’t lost a single international friendly this calendar year in eight matches. This includes wins over World Cup participants and draws against Belgium and Portugal. In fact, Mexico held Belgium and Portugal to just one combined goal. Say what you want about friendlies, but the form and defensive upside is there. For what it’s worth, Mexico and Korea played to a 2-2 draw in a friendly in Nashville in September, but again, the home-pitch advantage for Mexico could be worth as much as a half a goal in the group stages. Ultimately, I see this group playing out exactly how the odds depict and wouldn’t be surprised to see Mexico allow no more than one goal in the group stage.
Projected group order: Mexico, Korea, Czechia, South Africa
Bet to consider: Mexico to win Group A as a group-winner parlay piece
Group B
Switzerland (-135)
Canada (+170)
Bosnia and Herzegovina (+500)
Qatar (+4000)
Insight: Like Mexico, Canada will play all of their group matches in its home nation. Unlike Mexico, there is a bit more competition in this group with Switzerland sitting atop the Group B odds board. There’s probably slightly more offensive upside in this group than in the one we previously discussed, but it’s not by much. Switzerland and Canada both have strong defenses, enough to suffocate one another as well as inferior sides in B&H and Qatar. This one will likely come down to the head-to-head matchup between the Swiss and our friends up North, a matchup in which Switzerland are currently favored by decent margin (+110/+240/+260 SUI/Draw/CAN on the three-way ML). For what it’s worth, Canada don’t have many, if any, international wins that stand out to me over the last year, while the Swiss beat USA and Mexico 8-2 combined, allowed just two goals in six World Cup qualifiers and have plenty of high-level World Cup experience already having played to the Round of 16 in 2022.
Projected group order: Switzerland, Canada, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Qatar
Bet to consider: Switzerland to win Group B as a group-winner parlay piece
Group C
Brazil (-320)
Morocco (+310)
Scotland (+950)
Haiti (+12500)
Insight: Don’t really need to spend much time here, as Brazil’s talent far exceeds that of the other three sides in this group — which is appropriately reflected in the odds. Morocco are the only real threat to the Brazilians, and many will hang on to them being the first African nation ever to reach the World Cup semifinals in 2022, but I question if this version of the Moroccan side can replicate that performance this time around — especially considering their potential injury concerns and a change of manager. Abde Ezzalzouli of Real Betis has a real chance of missing the World Cup given a recent injury in a friendly against Norway, plus there are multiple injury designations across the Moroccan defense. This doesn’t bode well for them at all, especially considering Brazil are their first group-stage opponent. Meanwhile, Scotland’s talent is limited compared to Brazil, while Haiti may be slightly better than oddsmakers expect relatively to the bottom feeders in each group, but I still find it hard to see them earning more than one point.
Projected group order: Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, Haiti
Bet to consider: Brazil over 7.5 group points (win all three games) (+160 on Caesars)
Group D
USA (+125)
Türkiye (+190)
Paraguay (+420)
Australia (+850)
Insight: The fourth group of the tournament is the only in which we see the favorite sporting a plus-money price. Admittedly, USA were given a great draw considering they are a host, but also given the fact that they played each of their group opponents within roughly the last year — two of them within the last nine months. For reference, the Americans lost 2-1 to Türkiye last June (with a heavily rotated lineup) before beating both Paraguay and Australia 2-1. There wasn’t much separation in those wins, but USA should qualify with ease as the host nation. That said, Türkiye are a real threats to steal the group. USA haven’t stepped up in class very well, and while Türkiye aren’t to the level of Germany, Portugal and Belgium, they are an equipped side that played very well in Euro 2024 and drew Spain in Seville 2-2 in November. Paraguay, meanwhile, return to the World Cup for the first time since 2010, and there is some talent on this squad both going forward and defensively with a few current and former EPL players. Moreover, they have had some solid results leading into this tournament, including wins over Mexico, Uruguay, Argentina and Brazil in friendlies of CONMEBOL World Cup Qualifying matches over the last two years. Lastly, Australia bring up the rear. In my eyes, the Soccerroos are most likely to finish bottom of the group, as there is not a ton of talent on this side. They will compete hard and should be in a close match with Paraguay, but I don’t see them earning points against the USA or Türkiye.
To lead USA in scoring, I lean to Folarin Balogun at +400. While Pulisic figures to be the penalty taker, I’d argue that’s already baked into the price. Plus, Balogun enters this contest in much better form after finishing fourth in scoring in Ligue 1 for AS Monaco. In fact, he scored in nine of his last 12 club matches from February 21 on. Pulisic scored in an international friendly against Senegal at the end of May, but that was his first goal in all competitions since December 28. Plus, that goal was his only shot on target in four friendlies. Balogun had four.
Projected group order: Türkiye, USA, Paraguay, Australia
Bet to consider: Australia Stage of Elimination: Group Stage (-125 at bet365)
Bet to consider: Folarian Balogun to lead USA in scoring (+380 at FanDuel)
Group E
Germany (-260)
Ecuador (+330)
Côte d'Ivoire (+550)
Curaçao (+12500)
Insight: First, I want to start by congratulating Curaçao for making history. They not only made the World Cup for the first time, but with a population of roughly 156,000, they are now the smallest nation by both population and land area to reach the tournament. To put the latter into perspective, the island of Curaçao is about half that of New York City from a physical size perspective. Wild stuff. Anyway, we won’t have to talk much more about them, as playing on this stage should be a jolt to the system to say the least. I don’t see how they stop Germany or Ivory Coast from scoring, and I don’t see how they crack Ecuador’s defense. Now, let’s get to the Germans, who are the odds-on favorites. It’s not a bettable range, especially given their recent World Cup struggles and some defensive questions with a 40-year-old un-retired keeper. That said, they are a highly talented squad with plenty of offensive creativity and a solid midfield. Like Curaçao, I don’t see how Ivory Coast stop Germany, either. Moving to Ecuador, who have a seemingly impenetrable defense and haven’t surrendered more than one goal in any international match since June 22, 2024 in the Copa América against Venezuela. Now, there’s not a ton of offensive firepower moving forward either, so unders are a good shout in their games. Polar opposite is Ivory Coast, or Côte d’Ivoire as they prefer to be called now. They are excellent going forward with the likes of Franck Kessié, Ibrahim Sangaré, Ourmar Diakité and Nicolas Pépé, but their defensive prowess is no where near the level of their offense — which would hold them back from a deep run in the tournament. All things considered, the three top teams are heavily favored to advance with wins over Curaçao. Germany has the highest ceiling overall, but Ecuador could be a tough matchup in the knockout stages given their defense.
If you’re looking for a long shot top goalscorer prop, Ibrahim Sangare could be a sneaky look for Côte d’Ivoire. The midfielder played in the EPL this year and could be in line for some penalties. Other books are as low as 15/1. Worth a sprinkle.
Projected group order: Germany, Ecuador, Côte d’Ivoire, Curaçao
Bet to consider: Germany group-stage goals over 7.5 (+100 at Caesars)
Bet to consider: Côte d’Ivoire top goalscorer: Ibrahim Sangaré (+4000 on bet365)
Group F
Netherlands (-125)
Japan (+240)
Sweden (+470)
Tunisia (+1400)
Insight: The Dutch are the favorites as quite an experienced side with a great defense and a savvy manager, while Japan and Sweden will battle for second. All three are expected to qualify, but it’s not nearly as likely as the top three teams in Group E, as Tunisia are not a complete pushover — though noticeably the worst side in this group on paper. Sweden have some attacking firepower with Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres, but I don’t trust them much defensively. The Japanese are one of the most talked about dark horses of the tournament so far, especially after beating England 1-0 in a May friendly and Brazil 3-2 in an October friendly. However, they also lost 2-0 to USA, drew Mexico 0-0 and lost to Australia 1-0 in the last year, so this Japanese side is all over the place. When push comes to shove, we know what we’re going to get from the Netherlands, and they are by far the most experienced side in this group on this stage. The hype on Japan may have created a buy opportunity on Netherlands at this price. However, this could be the most competitive group of all, so there’s no need to add risk by parlaying Netherlands with anything if you go that way.
Projected group order: Netherlands, Sweden, Japan, Tunisia
Bet to consider: Netherlands to win Group F (-125 or better)
Group G
Belgium (-250)
Egypt (+450)
Iran (+700)
New Zealand (+2200)
Insight: Another group, another European team as the favorite. Belgium’s golden era is arguably behind us a this point, but they are still remnants remaining. They aren’t great defensively when lined up against the other world powers, and that will likely hold them back from going deep in the tournament. However, they are by far the best offensive side in this group, coming into this contest having scored 20 goals in their last 5 international matches. Behind Belgium is a cohesive Egypt side, though they may be a bit too heavily reliant on the likes of Mohamed Salah and Omar Marmoush to advance past the Round of 32. Meanwhile, Iran are top-25 in the FIFA World Rankings — if you care about that sorta thing. Like the Golf World Rankings, they should be taken with a grain of salt. They come into this contest after a month-long training camp, so expect a spirited effort from this bunch, but they have even less upside than Egypt considering they don’t have two EPL attackers leading the offense. As for New Zealand, I don’t see how they get a point much less win a game. This is a side that just lost 4-0 to Haiti and 2-0 to Finland in friendlies over the last few weeks, in addition to a 3-1 loss to Australia.
Belgium have 5+ goal upside in every matchup in this group, yes even Egypt — who are being rated as an elite defensive squad despite not seeing much high-level competition of late. Also, Iran might be a little more forward as oddsmakers expect. As such, I think Group G has a way better chance to be the highest-scoring group than oddsmakers depict.
Projected group order: Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand
Bet to consider: Belgium to win Group G as a group-winner parlay piece
Bet to consider: Highest Scoring Group: Group G (+1500 at ScoreBet)
Group H
Spain (-425)
Uruguay (+410)
Saudi Arabia (+4500)
Cape Verde (+5000)
Insight: I’m not going to waste anyone’s time here. Spain are the biggest favorites to win their group for good reason. Uruguay are -1000 to advance at DK, while Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde are plus money to advance. This is only one of two groups with two teams at plus money to advance, which should be a sign, as should the -325 price tag on Spain & Uruguay dual forecast at Caesars. That’s shorter than most favorites to win their group alone, much less adding as second team to the mix.
Projected group order: Spain, Uruguay, Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia
Bet to consider: Spain over 7.5 group points (win all three games) (+110 on Caesars)
Group I
France (-200)
Norway (+270)
Senegal (+700)
Iraq (+7000)
Insight: This is another one that won’t require a ton of time, as France are heavy favorites to win the group. Norway will pose a threat offensively with the likes of Erling Haaland and Martin Ødegaard, but I don’t trust them to get a result against France. That said, they should advance with a win over Iraq and at least a result against Senegal, who have failed to impress against World-Cup level competition over the last couple years. Iraq are simply an immediate write-off and is +125 to lose all three group games — only Curaçao and Haiti have shorter odds to go 0-3 in the group stage.
Projected group order: France, Norway, Senegal, Iraq
Bet to consider: Norway over 5.5 group points (2-1 or better in group play) (+100 on Caesars) OR France & Norway dual forecast (-145 on Caesars) — but it would probably be smarter to just bet Norway ML against Senegal at a better price than both of these bets, since that’s what this really comes down to.
Group J
Argentina (-250)
Austria (+370)
Algeria (+750)
Jordan (+7500)
Insight: Yet another group that doesn’t deserve a ton of time, as defending champions Argentina should walk through all three of these sides. Austria are their strongest suitor in this group, but I don’t know if they have enough firepower to threaten to steal the top spot from Messi & company — though they did have a strong showing in Euro 2024 ahead of some uninspiring play in Nations League. Their World Cup Qualifying and international friendly schedule haven’t been the most challenging, but they also haven’t been that impressive against top-flight competition of late outside of the 5-1 showing against Ghana. That said, they’ll at least advance with a win over lowly Jordan, as should Algeria — who just managed a 1-0 victory over Netherlands in a friendly last week. Meanwhile, Jordan have lost 6-1 combined against Colombia and Switzerland in their last two friendlies.
Projected group order: Argentina, Austria, Algeria, Jordan
Bet to consider: Argentina to win Group J as a group-winner parlay piece
Group K
Portugal (-200)
Colombia (+200)
Congo DR (+2200)
Uzbekistan (+2700)
Insight: Another group, another heavy favorite. However, as I highlighted at the beginning, there are plenty of reasons to like Portugal outside of the 41-year-old question mark that is Ronaldo. Colombia are far and away the second-best side in this group and are expected to get six points from the other two matches to secure advancing regardless of what they do against Portugal. After all, this is the only other group that has two teams at plus money to advance. For what it’s worth, Portugal & Colombia dual forecast is -250, closely rivaling Group H.
Projected group order: Portugal, Columbia, Uzbekistan, Congo DR
Bet to consider: Portugal to win Group K as a group-winner parlay piece
Group L
England (-260)
Croatia (+340)
Ghana (+1100)
Panama (+3000)
Insight: Last but not least, another heavy European favorite in England wraps up the group betting forecast. Croatia aren’t like they used to be, while Ghana and Panama are severely overmatched against the Brits. Honestly, I’m a bit surprised England isn’t the heaviest group-stage favorite, but I suppose oddsmakers are giving Croatia a bit of respect based on name recognition. I don’t find it to be all that deserving, and expect England to take all nine points. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them keep three clean sheets.
Projected group order: England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama
Bet to consider: England over 7.5 group points (win all three games) (+210 on Caesars)
Official Bets
Winner: Portugal (+1040 w/ boost at Scorebet) 1 unit
Group Winner Parlay: Mexico, Switzerland, Belgium, Argentina, Portugal (+800 boosted to +1040 on DK) 1 unit
Future: Mexico to reach QF (+350 on bet365) 1 unit
Group prop parlay: Brazil over 7.5 group points + Spain over 7.5 group points (+446 on Caesars) 0.45 units (not goals, but rather points. You’re betting on both teams to go 3-0 in group stage)
USA bet: Folarian Balogun to lead USA in scoring (+380 at FanDuel) 0.55 units
Team Prop: Côte d’Ivoire top goalscorer: Ibrahim Sangaré (+4000 on bet365) 0.1 units
Group prop: Highest Scoring Group: Group G (+1500 at ScoreBet) 0.3 units
Group prop: England over 7.5 group points (+210 on Caesars) 0.7 units
