Legend:
Odds - Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats or *Last Season Stats
Rank: Based on Season Stats Rank in this Field
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
WMPO Results: Finishes at the WM Phoneix Open
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Southern Hills Country Club, Bay Hill Club & Lodge & Memorial Park Golf Course
Viktor Hovland
Odds: +4000
*Stats: Top 100! exclude ARD (138), SCR (140), ARD/SCR AVG (139), PUTT (116), BA (139), P4 (109)
Rank: N/A
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, AP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 14/23/6/5
WMPO Results: 42/MC/MC
Comp Results: 2/10/15/36/40/41/42/49/MC
Insights: Welcome to the 2026 season of the PGA Tour, Viktor. Glad you could join us. Granted, he played in Dubai 2 weeks ago, but it would have been nice to see him play at Torrey. Instead, he’s starting his 2026 campaign with a trip to Phoenix, where he hasn’t played since 2023 and where he’s found little success in the years he played. Each of his 3 starts here came with massive losses around the greens, which is the Viktor we all know and love really, and 4 of his last 6 rounds here — dating back to 2022 — came with net-negative approach play. As you can see above, those 3 results were T42, MC, MC. That’s enough to scare me off BDV at least for this week, as course history at the WMPO tends to be stickier than most. Having said that, his current form is very good, for the most part. He’s absolutely striping it, and he’s gained around the greens in 4 of his last 5 events. It all comes down his performance on the greens when he’s clicking everywhere tee-to-green, which is worrisome because that’s the one place he hasn’t been gaining strokes of late — losing roughly 4 strokes to the field in the Dubai Desert Classic and Nedbank combined. Honestly, fade of the week material here with poor course history and being first PGA start this season, but tune into tomorrow’s newsletter to confirm that. - S
Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +240
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 175200 (172), PROX (153), BOB 175200 (142)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 175200, PROX, BOB 175200; Top 25: TG, OTT, DD, OTT/DD AVG, GIR, BS, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB AVG, BA, P3, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 1/4/1/4
WMPO Results: 25/3/1/1/7/MC
Comp Results: 1/1/2/2/2/4/9/11/15/32/MC
Insights: Scheff rolls into TPC Scottsdale looking every bit like GOD himself again. The odds are short at +240, but the profile backs it up: elite across the board with Top-25 ranks in tee-to-green, off-the-tee, ball striking, GIR, scrambling, putting, and every meaningful par split. He’s gained strokes in all four categories in each of his last four starts, with a form line that reads 1-4-1-4, and his history here makes him a horse for course. Even when the approach numbers lag relative to his sky-high baseline, the floor remains contention. On a course where comfort, confidence, and controlled chaos matter, Scottie projects as the clear standard. You’re paying a premium, but you’re buying inevitability. If you don’t like +240, I went ahead and paired him up with Jon Rahm to win LIV Riyad and the Seattle Seahawks to Win the Super Bowl at close to +2500 odds. Another option is a First Round Leader bet close to +1000 odds. They may seem slim but he is 2nd in the field in putting and gains on average 2.6 strokes gained per round at TPC Scottsdale (1st in field of course). No matter what you decide, make sure you get some Scottie exposure but lay off the -5000 to make the cut odds to not raise degenerate alarms. -C
Cameron Young
Odds: +2400
Stats: Top 75!! exclude PUTT (94), BOB (101), BOB 150175 (92), P4 (123)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: TG, OTT, OTT/DD AVG, APP, APP 150175, APP 175200, APP AVG, BOB 175200, BA, P3
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 22/10/9/4
WMPO Results: 12/8/64/26
Comp Results: 3/10/13/36/MC
Insights: CY sets up as a classic upside play at TPC Scottsdale this week, and the +2400 range feels fair for the ceiling he brings. The ball-striking profile is exactly what you want here: Top-25 ranks in tee-to-green, off-the-tee, approach (including key 150–200 yard buckets), and par-3 scoring, with strokes-gained trends moving the right way — OTT in all four starts, approach in three of four, and a steady short game. The last four finishes don’t fully capture how well he’s played since August: 22-10-9-4-11-5-1. The asks are minor — a little more juice on par 4s and getting back to gaining half a stroke or more on the greens — but those are tweaks, not overhauls. Scottsdale rewards elite drivers who create chances, and his 8th here in 2024 and 12th last year suggest the fit is tightening. I won’t miss this one: Cam was my first bet of the week at +2250, and I’m happy to ride the upside. -C
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Daniel Berger
Odds: +6600
Stats: Top 75!! exclude DD (87), PROX (97), P3 (99)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: TG, GIR, APP AVG, BS, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, BA, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 56/6/51/WD
WMPO Results: 2/28/MC/MC/9/MC/11/7/58/10
Comp Results: 13/15/45/MC/MC
Insights: Daniel Berger shapes up as a sneaky value this week, with the +6600 doing more work than the recent results suggest. The season-long profile is quietly strong: Top-25 ranks in tee-to-green, GIR, approach average, ball striking, scrambling, and key birdie-or-better buckets (150–175 and 175–200), paired with solid par-4 and par-5 scoring — all traits that translate well to TPC Scottsdale. The strokes-gained trends support the case, with gains off the tee in all four recent starts and flashes of upside when the irons and putter align. Results remain volatile (56-6-51-WD), but that’s been the reality of Berger’s post-return arc. Course history helps soften the risk: a runner-up finish, multiple Top 10s, and clear evidence he can handle both the atmosphere and the moment. Sitting outside the Top 50 in OWGR adds motivation, with strong finishes needed to climb toward an Augusta return, and he’s shown in the past he can string together runs early in the season. A fair long-shot outright, with added appeal in matchups or positionals if the early rounds confirm the feel. -C
Chris Gotterup
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude SCR (60)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude PROX, SCR, PUTT, BOB, P4
SG Gains: OTT 2/3, APP 2/3, APP 1/3, PUTT 2/3 (No SG for Baycurrent start)
FORM: 18/1/19/40
WMPO Results: MC/MC
Comp Results: 18/57
Insights: Like Hovland, Gotterup comes with solid form and poor course history. Already a winner this year after winning the 2025 Scottish Open and flirting with a win at the US Open, Gotterup has made his presence felt on the PGA Tour lately. He is at his best with driver in hand, which is ideal for success at TPC Scottsdale, but he hasn’t been good enough with his irons lately to back it up. Even his win at Sony came with a slight loss in APP, as he lost over 1.1 strokes with his irons in both rounds 2 and 4. I’m not sure he can sniff the top of the leaderboard if his irons aren’t working this weekend. Combine that with his poor course history, and it’s an easy pass (maybe fade??) for me on Gotterup. If you consider Champ’s trends from Monday’s newsletter, all 6 of the recent winners at the WMPO have had a least 1 top-30 finish here in the past, while 5 of them had a top-10 finish. Gotterup’s history is MC, MC. No thanks. -S
Si Woo Kim
Odds: +2800
Stats: Top 75!! exclude DD (111), ARD (102), ARD/SCR AVG (78), PUTT (129), P5 (82)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude DD, OTT/DD AVG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/3, APP 3/3, ARD 2/3, PUTT 2/3 (No SG for Australian Open start)
FORM: 2/6/11/3
WMPO Results: 21/12/23/26/50/MC/MC/62/MC/67
Comp Results: 17/19/26/30/35/39/49/60/63/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/WD
Insights: Si Woo Kim is playing some incredible golf. He’s absolutely locked in with his irons, gaining close to 8 strokes on APP at the Farmers, on the heels of +3.6 strokes at the AmEx and +6.5 strokes at Sony. Just insane numbers, and he even paired those APP numbers at the Sony with +4.2 strokes OTT. A true ball-striker. The rub with SWK always has and always will be with his putter. He was a slight positive last week, which landed him T2 behind Justin Rose’s ridiculous performance. The last time he gained on the greens? T4 at RSM. Those are the only 2 events in which he gained with the flat stick since the Memorial. So let’s look at his putting history at TPC Scottsdale of late: slight loss last year (-0.3 total), slight positive in 2024 (+0.65), and massive gains in 2023 (+5.2) thanks to an electric round-2 performance (+3.9). Unfortunately, he lost 2.3 strokes on APP in 2023 and only finished T23 because of it. This will be SWK’s 11th WMPO, so the rambunctiousness of the crowd won’t phase him. He’s finished T26 or better in 4 straight starts here, and 3 of those results came with even or negative performances with his irons. With how locked in he is on APP, SWK seemingly has a high floor again this week. If he can find a ceiling round on the greens and end the event as a net-positive in that regard, he’s going to be in contention. - S
Jake Knapp
Odds: +4500
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP (109), GIR (108), APP 150175 (101), BS (109)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: OTT, OTT/DD AVG, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BA, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 1/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 5/11/62/MC
WMPO Results: 44/28
Comp Results: 27/57/MC
Insights: My gut reaction to Knappy Boy’s price was bearish. At sub-50/1, he’s around names like Viktor Hovland, Brooks Koepka, and JJ Spaun on the odds oddsboard. Why? Because he won at Mexico in 2024, or because he was T5 last week? Was it because he finished T3 at the 3M Open, or maybe his T4 at Rocket? Oh I know, it’s his 3rd-place finish at the Zurich the makes the oddsmakers really like him. Just based on price alone, it’s a no from me dawg, and his horrid approach numbers further confirm my lack of interest in backing Jake Knapp this week. That said, he’s great on the greens and has been great off-the-tee — which is where he’s struggled on this course in the past — so if he can figure out his irons for a few days, I suppose he has the good. But again, the price is awful. He should be in the 70-80 range, imo. Clubhouse recommendation: Short term exposure the treatment this week. First round leader or Thursday 3-ball match-up with hopes of another Thursday course record set by Jake. - S
Hideki Matsuyama
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 100! exclude DD (125), OTT/DD AVG (107), BS (117), PUTT (130), BOB (101), BOB 150175 (113)
Rank: Top 75 exclude DD; Top 25: TG, APP, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BA, P3, P5
SG Gains: OTT 2/3, APP 3/3, ARD 3/3, PUTT 1/3 (No SG for Dunlop Phoenix start)
FORM: 11/13/1/5
WMPO Results: 25/22/29/8/42/16/15/WD/1/1/2/4
Comp Results: 2/6/12/18/20/21/22/33/45/49/56/60/WD/MC
Insights: The Man, the Myth, the Legend, Hideki Matsuyama. Like SWK, Deki is putting on quite the display of approach play this season, gaining over 8 strokes to the field with his irons at the Sony and the Farmers. Also like SWK, the putter has been a mess, at least of late, losing strokes to the field in each of his last 4 measured PGA events. He lost almost 2 strokes on the greens last year, but prior to that, he gained at least 1 stroke and as high as 3.5 strokes on the greens in each of his 3 prior starts here. It’s hard to gauge what we’re going to get with Deki on the greens, but given his current form and most recent result here are both negative, I worry about the upside at this price. He also can be a little unpredictable off the tee, but at the end of the day, we’re talking about a 2-time winner at this event with 3 other top 10s and 5 more top 30s. Deki should at least be in consideration for placement bets or round-to-round matchups, but I’m pumping the gas on his win equity giving his recent putting performances. If I see him rolling the rock efficiency like his starts here in 2022-2024, then a live ticket could be in order. - S
Patrick Rodgers
Odds: +11000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude P5 (82)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: TG, DD, OTT/DD AVG, APP, GIR, APP 175200, APP AVG, BS, PUTT, BOB, BOB150175, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, P3
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 27/44/3/7
WMPO Results: MC/14/MC/MC/16/MC/MC/MC/17
Comp Results: 7/16/20/22/24/25/38/46/52/57/74/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Patrick Rodgers remains a classic high-upside, low-floor play, and the +11000 number accurately captures that volatility. The stat profile to open the year is quietly encouraging, highlighted by his 3rd-place finish at Waialae. Last week, the clubhouse expected a bit more, and while he did make the cut, it wasn’t until a Sunday 66 that the Stanford grad finally showed some West Coast heat. Whether that momentum carries into Scottsdale is the question. Course history here is inconsistent but not hopeless — a few mid-teens finishes show the ceiling, but the missed cuts pile up. The clubhouse won’t be dialing up patrons to buy pre-tournament exposure this week. The sharper approach is patience: monitor early form and look to live markets or 3-ball matchups if the week starts trending toward another Top 20 at WMPO. -C
Nick Taylor
Odds: +7800
Stats: Top 75!! exclude DD (117), OTT/DD AVG (88), APP (119), PROX (102), BOB 150175 (84)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: GIR, BS, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, BA, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/3, AP 2/3, ARD 3/3, PUTT 2/3 (No SG for WWT start)
FORM: 27/13/18/MC
WMPO Results: 25/1/2/MC/MC/49/MC/52/MC/65/59
Comp Results: 12/31/32/35/41/56/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Nick Taylor comes in as a high-upside, moderate-risk play at +7800 this week. He’s a past WMPO champion with a track record of contending on West Coast/Scottsdale-style courses, and three of his five PGA wins have come on similar setups. Off the tee form is a bit uneven, and the putter will be decisive, but his ball-striking and GIR stats provide a solid foundation. Course history is a roller coaster—win, runner-up, multiple missed cuts—but when the tools click, he can compete. The longer odds improve the value for outright exposure, while matchups and positionals remain attractive for a conservative approach. Expect a player who can quietly lurk near the top of the leaderboard if the putter heats up, with a realistic Top 10 or Top 20 finish as a base case. -C