2026 WM Phoenix Open - Patio Preview, Key Stats, Tournament Trends & Early Models
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Patio Preview
TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course)
Scottsdale, Arizona
Not a signature event, but a good field nonetheless
132 Players; Cut 65 + ties
7,250-7,300 yards
Par 71 (Three Par 5s)
Scoring average 70.11 last 5 years
Greens: Poa Trivalis overseed
7000+ sq ft
Slightly bigger greens than Tour average
Roll true and are flat
5-6 holes with water in play
67 bunkers
Driver-heavy course
Last year was near 90% driver usage (Tour average 69%)
4 of the previous 5 years, Driver usage was at least 83.5%
Low-to-average missed fairway/rough penalty, so driving accuracy is slightly below Tour average here last 5 years
Drives of 320+ yards doubled the Tour average last year
GIR% slightly above Tour average
70%+ 3 of last 5 years (Tour average 66%)
Going-for-green% 66% or higher 4 of last 5 years (Tour average 59%)
Going-for-green Hit Green % ranging from 27.1% (2024) to 31.6% (2021) last 5 years (Tour average 23%)
More than 65% of Approach shots from 150+
Slightly more shots from 50-125 than 125-150
Would say 150-200 is the sweet spot for modeling
ARG play average all around, but scrambling from the short grass is the most difficult area
3-Putt Avoidance and 3-Putt Avoidance from 25 feet+ are both more difficult than Tour Average
Putting success 5-15 feet could be a good filter for models
Birdie-or-Better % about Tour average
Bogey Avoidance slightly below Tour average
Birdie-to-Bogey ration: 1.40 last 5 years, but last 2 years 1.45 (Tour average 1.44)
PM Scoring Average has been lower than AM here each of last 4 years
Round 1 has highest scoring average of the 4 rounds in each of last 5 years here
P3 average 3.04 L5 years
2 of most difficult 5 holes are Par 3s
#7 - 210+ yards
#12 - 190+ yards
“Easiest” P3 is the infamous #16, but the crowd factor makes it the hardest mentally
P4 average 4.02 L5 years
Bogey rates of 18% or higher at P4 #2, P4 #11, P4 #14
P5 average 4.58
Right at 50% P5 BOB% last year
2 of 3 Par 5s have an eagle rate of more than 3.5%.
#3 (550-575 yards)
#13 (550-575 yards)
2025 winner Thomas Detry was 1st APP, 2nd P, 3rd T2G, 14 OTT, 39 ARG
2024 winner Nick Taylor was 1st P, 6th T2G, 9th APP, 18th ARG, 61st OTT
2023 winner Scottie Scheffler was 1st APP, 1st T2G, 15th P, 22nd OTT, 30th ARG
2022 winner Scottie Scheffler was 3rd in P, 4th OTT, 12th ARG, 13th T2G, 85th APP
2021 winner Brooks Koepka was 2nd APP, 2nd T2G, 13th OTT, 22nd P, 56th ARG
Recent Tournament History
2025: Thomas Detry -24 (66-64-65-65); 7 Stroke Victory over Berger & Michael Kim
2024: Nick Taylor -21 (60-70-68-65); Playoff Victory over Charley Hoffman
2023: Scottie Scheffler -19 (68-64-68-65); 2 Stroke Victory over Nick Taylor
2022: Scottie Scheffler -16 (68-71-62-67); Playoff Victory over Patrick Cantlay
2021: Brooks Koepka -19 (68-66-66-65); 1 Stroke Victory KH Lee & Xander Schauffele
2020: Webb Simpson -17 (71-63-64-69); Playoff Victory over Tony Finau
FOLLOW EACH MEMBER OF THE CLUBHOUSE CREW ON THEIR SOCIALS!
Champ - @Champs311
Sammy - @SammyAvBets
Key Stats
Tier 1
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa Triv)
Birdie-or-Better %
Tier 2
Bogey Avoidance
Driving Distance
Good Drive%
Greens-in-Regulation%
Going-for-Green Hit Green%
Par 5 BOB%
Tier 3
Par 4 BOB%
P3 Scoring
Approach 150-200
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
ARG Proximity from Short Grass
Three-Putt Avoidance from 25’+ (
Putting 5-15 feet
Strokes Gained: TPC Scottsdale L5 years
Champ’s Course Comps
Southern Hills Country Club
Bay Hill Club & Lodge
Memorial Park Golf Course
Last 6 WMPO Trends
Odds
0-25: 2023, 2020
26-50: 2022, 2021
51-100: 2025
101+: 2024
Winner’s Strokes Behind Leader By Round
R1: 4/6 (67%) within 3 shots (1/6 led)
R2: 3/6 (50%) within 1 shot (2/6 led)
R3: 5/6 (83%) within 2 shots (3/6 led)
Winner’s Lead-In Form
6/6 (100%) with a Top 10 finish in their last 4 starts
5/6 (83%) made the cut in their last start
4/6 (67%) with at least 2 Top 20 finishes in their last 4 starts
4/6 (67%) with a Top 5 finish in their last 4 starts
4/6 (67%) with a Top 20 finish in their last 2 starts
0/6 (0%) with a WIN in their last 4 starts
Winner’s WM Phoneix Open History
6/6 (100%) with at least 1 prior apperance
6/6 (100%) with a Top 30 finish
5/6 (83%) with a Top 10 finish
4/6 (67%) with a Top 5 finish
First Round Leader by Tee Split
AM: 33% (2022, 2021)
PM: 67% (2025, 2024, 2023, 2020)
*results can include instances where FRL from multiple courses, all get credited with a win.
Early Models
Become a Clubhouse Member to unlock Champ and Sammy’s full models below, including our model weights where applicable
