Legend:
Odds: Betting Odds at BET365 as of 10:00 PM EST
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Top 75% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 75% in the Field
Top 25% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 25% in the Field
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
MEX Results: Finishes at the Mexico Open
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Puntacana Resort (Corales Golf Course), Grand Reserve Golf Club & Country Club of Jackson
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Wyndham Clark
Odds: +1100
Stats: Top 75!! exclude OTT (88), GIR (106), BS (96)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: All exclude OTT, OTT/DD AVG, GIR, APP 175200, BS, BOB 175200, BA, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/3, APP 3/3, ARD 3/3, PUTT 2/3
FORM: 63/21/1/5
MEX Results: 24/67 (4 of 8 Rds in 60s; Low: 65)
Comp Results: 6/10/17/22/54/66/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Wyndham Clark is the favorite, and history says we shouldn't automatically run from that at Vidanta with the betting favorite winning two of the four editions. If Clark shows up with purpose, he's also one of the few players in this field where nobody should be surprised if he simply reminds everyone he's the best player here and wins. The recent strokes-gained profile certainly supports it—three straight gains OTT, APP and ARG with putting gains in two of three—and the season-long numbers put him inside the Top 25% across most of what we're measuring. He also finally got back into the winner's circle this season, something that matters when comparing him to several shorter-priced players still trying to prove they can close. But +1100 asks us to overlook a few things. His return at the Baycurrent was a disappointing T63, albeit his first start since the TOUR Championship and one with guaranteed money, and Vidanta hasn't exactly brought out his best. Clark finished T24 here in 2023 and T67 in his other appearance, losing OTT in both despite distance being one of his biggest weapons. He's still searching for his first Top 20 at the course. There is a T6 at Corales from 2023 worth respecting—he entered Sunday just one back before a final-round 70—but much of the remaining comp history is dated. I'm curious how much ownership the name attracts because the free custom model isn't necessarily screaming Clark either. He absolutely has the highest gear in this field, and if that gear shows up, +1100 could look perfectly justified by Sunday. I'm just not interested in paying to find out. First Hat Tip of the Week is inked in.
Ben James
Odds: +1800
Stats: N/A
Top 75% Rank: N/A
Top 25% Rank: N/A
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: MC/5/2/3
MEX Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 4
Insights: I'm not jumping off the Ben James train after one ugly week in Bermuda. He lost across the bag outside of OTT and missed the cut, but that came three weeks removed from his T5 in Utah and followed finishes of 3-2-5 before the break. We're still talking about a player with only two missed cuts in 11 PGA TOUR starts and four Top 5s already, so one bad trip to Port Royal isn't enough to erase what we've seen. If anything, Vidanta looks like a much better bounce-back spot. James finished T4 at Corales back in April, fired the low round of the day Friday, sat two shots back entering both the weekend and Sunday and showed he could contend immediately on a longer resort-style setup. We don't have enough season data to populate the full model yet, but the recent SG profile tells us plenty—OTT gains in four straight measured starts, APP gains in three of four and positive putting in three of four before Bermuda. Add what he accomplished collegiately and it continues to feel like the first PGA TOUR win is a matter of when rather than if. The problem remains the price. Under 20/1 is still asking a lot for someone this early in his career, although +1800 doesn't feel nearly as offensive in this field as last week's +1100. I'm expecting the horse to get right back up this week and won't blame anyone for clicking 18, but personally I'm holding off on the outright and certainly not jumping ship after one bad start.
Tom Kim
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 100! exclude DD (102), OTT/DD AVG (101), BOB 200+ (157)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude BOB 200+
Top 25% Rank: All exclude OTT, DD, OTT/DD AVG, APP 200+, PUTT, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P3
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 14/28/12/5
MEX Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 11/15/33
Insights: Tom Kim is one where the spreadsheet only tells part of the story this week. The season-long numbers through the TOUR Championship are plenty respectable, and the recent strokes-gained profile was particularly encouraging with four straight gains both OTT and APP and putting gains in three of four. He closed the PGA TOUR season with finishes of 14-28-12-5, but those numbers don't include what might be the most important development—Kim went to the Asian Games, won gold and earned exemption from South Korea's mandatory military service. That's an enormous amount of pressure removed from a 24-year-old who already owns multiple PGA TOUR wins, and I'm curious whether we see an even freer version of Kim going forward. From a pure Vidanta standpoint, there are questions. He makes his debut, isn't particularly long off the tee, ranks poorly from 200+ in our BOB splits and doesn't have a ton of comp-course evidence, although a T11 at the 2025 Sanderson gives us something. But we've already established that distance isn't mandatory here if the rest of the game travels, and Kim's ball striking was clicking before the break. The bigger question for me is motivation. Is Mexico a chance to celebrate and enjoy finally having that weight lifted, or does he immediately get back to business and chase a second PGA TOUR win in seven starts? At +1600, I'm not interested in paying to find out. This is more mental handicap than statistical handicap for me, and in those situations I tend to Hat Tip and look toward 3-balls if I want to dip a toe.
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Clubhouse Member’s Unlock:
Zach Bauchou, Doug Ghim, Johnny Keefer, Kevin Roy,
Neal Shipley, Jordan Smith and Jackson Suber!
Zach Bauchou
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude OTT (97), DD (114), OTT/DD AVG (106), APP 200+ (89)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: TG, APP, APP 175200, APP AVG, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, BA, P3, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 2/3, APP 3/3, ARD 3/3, PUTT 2/3
FORM: 9/13/24/14
MEX Results: MC (72-75, 2023)
Comp Results: 9/21
Insights: Insights: Zach Bauchou might be one of the easier players to overlook at +4000, but the deeper I get into the profile, the more I want some exposure. He enters 4th in my overall field ranking and is Top 10 in this field from 175-200 yards, BOB, our combined BOB average and scoring on the Par 3s, Par 4s and Par 5s, while sitting 11th in Bogey Avoidance. Better yet, the recent strokes-gained profile is about as clean as we can ask for—three straight APP and ARG gains, with OTT and putting positive in two of three. We don't have ShotLink numbers from his latest T9 in Japan, but that continued an excellent run of 9-13-24-14 and gives him four straight Top 25s entering Mexico. Plenty will see the missed cut here in 2023 and move along, but I'm willing to trust the current player and our process more than two rounds of 72-75 from three years ago. A T9 at Corales earlier this season, albeit helped by a hot putter, gives us another piece of evidence at our favorite comp. The obvious concern is distance—114th on the season and one of the few areas where he falls outside the Top 75—but Brian Campbell showed us last year that overpowering Vidanta isn't the only path to contention. Bauchou's approach play, scoring profile and current form give him another route. We already cashed a placement with him two starts ago in Utah, and I'm willing to go back to the well. At minimum, he's firmly on my placement and 3-ball radar for the first two days, and 40/1 is enough to keep the outright conversation open as well.
Doug Ghim
Odds: +1800
Stats: Top 75!! exclude DD (77), BOB 175200 (94)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: All exclude DD, APP, APP 175200, PUTT, BOB 175200
SG Gains: OTT 2/3, APP 2/3, ARD 3/3, PUTT 3/3
FORM: 17/2/17/19
MEX Results: 8/MC/33 (5 of 10 Rds in 60s; Low: 65)
Comp Results: 16/20/23/26/33/43/55/58/71/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Doug Ghim is going to test just how much we're willing to pay for consistency this week. The numbers are fantastic: 1st in this field in TG, GIR, Bogey Avoidance and Par-4 scoring, Top 3 in OTT, Ball Striking and BOB, and he ranks inside the Top 25% across nearly every key metric we're looking at. Recent form of 17-2-17-19 only adds fuel to the fire, and even the clubs that have historically caused the headaches are behaving. He's gained around the green and putting in three straight measured starts, with the putter becoming noticeably more consistent since June and providing the spike that nearly got him into the winner's circle with that runner-up. We've also seen OTT spikes in two of his last five and strong-to-elite approach performances in two of the last three. Vidanta isn't a bad fit either. Ghim finished T8 here in 2024 when the approach game produced his fourth-best performance of that season, and he fired a Friday 65 on debut that was the low round of the day. But here's where I get stuck: +1800 on Doug Ghim. He still lacks elite distance, the season-long approach and putting ranks aren't quite as impressive as the rest of the profile, he's lost strokes putting in each of his last three trips to Vidanta, owns zero Top 10s across our comp-course sample and, most importantly, we're still waiting for that first PGA TOUR win. If he finally gets it at 18/1, everyone gets to take the victory lap for identifying the obvious play. Just be prepared for the other side of that coin when we're staring at a T23 Sunday while Ben James or Tom Kim is the one actually threatening the trophy. Ghim absolutely deserves respect and may have one of the safest floors on the board, but the price has squeezed most of the fun out of it for me. Screams Hat Tip for the patrons in the back.
Johnny Keefer
Odds: +2200
Stats: Top 125 exclude ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT
Top 75% Rank: All exclude ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, DD, OTT/DD AVG, APP, GIR, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, P3
SG Gains: OTT 1/3, APP 2/3, ARD 2/3, PUTT 1/3
FORM: 33/10/7/MC
MEX Results: N/A
Comp Results: N/A
Insights: Johnny Keefer is the first name I've circled this week where I'm already looking for reasons to add him to the card rather than reasons to stay away. We've written him up a few times during the Fall, and the profile continues to look like one that's getting closer to a breakthrough. He's Top 50 on TOUR this season in TG, OTT, Driving Distance, APP, GIR, both of our key long-iron buckets, proximity, Ball Striking, BOB and Par-3 scoring. That's about as complete of a Vidanta fit as we're going to find. The obvious concern has been the short game and putter, but even those numbers might be hiding some improvement—Keefer has gained putting in five of his last seven measured starts and around the green in five of seven as well. Now give one of the longer hitters in this field a wide-open Norman design where he can let the driver go, and I'm expecting an above-average performance OTT with the potential for an elite spike. Recent finishes of 7-10-33 before the missed cut only strengthen the case, while a runner-up in Panama and T4 in Colombia during his two-win Korn Ferry season at least give us some evidence that these types of climates and grasses aren't foreign to him. There's no Vidanta or direct comp history to fall back on, and +2200 certainly isn't handing us much of a discount for that uncertainty. But we've watched young talent win repeatedly this season, and Keefer has already shown he knows how to close with two victories last year. At some point you stop waiting for the perfect number and bet the profile. Check in tomorrow to see if he makes the final card.
Kevin Roy
Odds: +5500
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP (117), APP 175200 (133), APP AVG (81)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 175200
Top 25% Rank: APP 200+, BS, ARD, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/3, APP 2/3, ARD 1/3, PUTT 1/3
FORM: 64/13/32/24
MEX Results: 17/18 (6 of 8 Rds in 60s; Low: 65)
Comp Results: 6/18/31/33/50/62/76/MC
Insights: Kevin Roy makes his second straight Deep Dive, and I might actually like the setup more this week than I did in Bermuda. He's now made nine straight cuts and enters 15th in my overall field ranking despite approach being the obvious weakness in the profile. That part has slipped since Asheville, particularly from 175-200 yards, but there's enough elsewhere to keep me interested. He's gained OTT in three straight measured starts, ranks Top 25% in this field from 200+, Ball Striking, BOB and Par-5 scoring, and sits Top 10 on TOUR this season in the latter. Vidanta should also allow him to lean a little more on his distance than Port Royal did, while the larger Paspalum greens could help neutralize a putter that has been a roller coaster. More importantly, we have actual evidence that Roy likes it here. He's finished T17 and T18 in two appearances with six of eight rounds in the 60s, sat T11 entering the weekend last year and gained elite numbers OTT. On debut, a Saturday 73 was the only thing separating him from an even better finish after closing with a 65. Add a T6 at Corales—our favorite comp—and the course-fit argument gets stronger. I also don't mind that he comes over from Bermuda without the stress of Monday golf or ever really being in contention. The equation feels pretty simple: if the approach play returns anywhere near its better 2026 levels, I think Roy is contending this week. At +5500, I'm willing to find out. Give me an outright sprinkle and a Top 20 as the more comfortable way to attack a player whose consistency, course history and Par-5 scoring all point in the right direction.
Neal Shipley
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 125 exclude ARD, PUTT
Top 75% Rank: All exclude ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, OTT/DD AVG, GIR, APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB 175200
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 1/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 34/10/3/67
MEX Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: MC
Insights: Neal Shipley isn't normally a player who forces his way into the Deep Dives through the complete statistical profile, but credit where it's due—the recent golf has become difficult to ignore. He's made six straight cuts with two Top 10s during the Fall, including a T3 at Asheville where he played in the final group, and the obvious starting point is the driver. Shipley has gained OTT in 17 consecutive measured starts and ranks 1st in this field for the season, while the long irons give us another reason to believe Vidanta should fit with Top 10 ranks in both approach buckets we're emphasizing this week. The rest of the game has always been the question, but there are signs there too. The putter, which spent much of 2026 in the deep freeze, produced one of his better performances at the Biltmore and gained again last week at Port Royal. If he can simply stay around field average on and around these greens, the driver and long irons should keep him involved all four days. There's little course-comp evidence to lean on after a missed cut at Corales, although he does have some Paspalum experience from the Korn Ferry Tour with a T9 in Panama and T18 in Mexico last season. I also don't hate that Bermuda didn't suit him and he still kept the made-cut streak alive before heading to a much longer, more forgiving setup. The question becomes price. At +3500 I'm right on the brink; give me 40/1 and I'm much more inclined to take the outright shot, while anything around 30 starts pushing him toward Hat Tip territory. Either way, Shipley is firmly on the radar for placements, and a Top 10 feels like a nice way to get exposure if the outright number doesn't cooperate.
Jordan Smith
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 100! exclude ARD (139), ARD/SCR AVG (112), PUTT (117)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude ARD
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, DD, OTT/DD AVG, APP, GIR, BS, BOB 175200, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 1/3, APP 1/3, ARD 2/3, PUTT 2/3
FORM: 4/26/21/MC
MEX Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: N/A
Insights: Jordan Smith has my attention this week, and unlike a few names around this price, +4000 feels like enough room to actually do something about it. The season-long profile fits Vidanta nicely with Top 20 ranks in OTT, GIR, Ball Striking and Par-4 scoring, while he's Top 10 in this field in TG, OTT, GIR and Ball Striking and sits 18th in my overall model. The recent strokes-gained numbers aren't nearly as pretty with OTT and APP gains in only one of his last three measured starts, but there's been plenty of travel mixed in between the FedExCup Playoffs, Irish Open, Wentworth, Utah and Japan. More importantly, we just saw the ceiling return at the Baycurrent. Smith opened with a 64 to sit one off the FRL, entered Sunday one back and ultimately finished T4 just three shots behind the winner. That gives us something to think about in Thursday markets as well. This will be his Vidanta debut and we don't have much comp-course history to lean on, but a T3 at the Valspar in windy conditions, T4 at the longer Baycurrent and T18 at The Open show me enough versatility to believe the lack of course reps isn't a deal breaker. Smith also owns two DP World Tour wins and has piled up enough Top 3s across tours since the last one in 2022 that another victory feels more like a matter of when than if. The short game and putter can certainly make things uncomfortable, but the driving and ball-striking profile gives him plenty of ways to attack this place. I've got a sneaky feeling about Smith this week, and at 40/1 I'm happy to take a stab. Add a placement for a little cushion, and don't be surprised if we find ourselves involved Thursday as well.
Jackson Suber
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude PUTT (137)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude PUTT
Top 25% Rank: TG, APP, GIR, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P3, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/3, APP 3/3, ARD 2/3, PUTT 0/3
FORM: 41/40/15/22
MEX Results: MC (70-71, 2025)
Comp Results: 67/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Jackson Suber and the Clubhouse have been on and off again more times than I'd like to admit this season, and Vidanta isn't making the decision any easier. The statistical profile is ridiculous for this field: Top 5 in TG, APP and GIR, 1st from 200+, 1st in proximity, Top 10 in Ball Striking, Top 5 in both BOB and Par-3 scoring and Top 20 on both the Par 4s and Par 5s. In fact, putting is the only key metric where he falls outside the Top 75. We've seen these numbers translate before—a T6 at the John Deere and another Top 20 cash for us at the Biltmore—but we've also repeatedly watched the putter and Sunday execution keep the ceiling from becoming a win. That story hasn't changed lately. Suber has gained OTT and APP in three straight measured starts but hasn't gained putting in any of them, while finishes of 41-40-15-22 aren't exactly screaming breakthrough. His Vidanta debut ended Friday despite rounds of 70-71, and four ugly comp results offer little encouragement. That's what makes +4000 difficult. Give me 60/1 and I'd probably be talking myself back into another ride, but at 40 we're paying for the impressive season-long profile without enough evidence that he's ready to close the door. Still, I don't think this ends with another missed cut. The ball striking and long-iron numbers fit Vidanta too well, and Paspalum offers at least some hope that the putter cooperates. A finish around the Top 25 feels much more likely, with legitimate upside beyond that if he finds anything on the greens. Suber could be a sneaky DFS piece and I'll look toward placements before the outright market. We've gone back to this well plenty in 2026; at this price, I'm willing to make him prove it's finally time to dive all the way back in.