2026 Valspar Championship - Player Deep Dives
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Legend:
Odds - Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Rank: Based on Field Rank
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Valspar Results: Finishes at the Valspar Championship
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: The Concession, Sea Island (Seaside Course), and Muirfield Village
Matt Fitzpatrick
Odds: +1800
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 175200 (98), PUTT (104), P3 (76)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude APP 175200, SCR, PUTT, P3
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 2/41/24/14
Valspar Results: MC/5/MC
Comp Results: 3/5/9/11/27/31/68/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Fitzy enters this week as a high-upside but slightly polarizing option. His all-around game is trending well — gaining strokes in every category in three of his last four starts and finishing runner-up recently — and he ranks near the top of the field in a well-rounded statistical profile that fits this course. His history at Valspar is mixed (MC/5/MC), but the 5th-place finish included four straight rounds in the 60s, showing clear comfort when things click. The biggest question is whether he can mentally reset after a close call last week where missed short putts cost him, despite strong ball-striking. Looking over his last 25 starts, he has instances where he has backed up top 5 performances with another so, I wouldn’t be concerned on that front. Supporters will see a player on the verge of a win, while skeptics may view the price as a bit short given the inconsistency here. Which side of the debate are you on?
Viktor Hovland
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 100! exclude OTT (134), GIR (145), BS (137), BOB (109), BOB 200+ (106), P5 (101)
Rank: Top 75 exclude GIR, BS; Top 25: TG, APP, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB 175200, BA, P3
SG Gains: OTT 1/4, APP 4/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 13/13/41/58
Valspar Results: 1/33/3
Comp Results: 1/2/3/15/25/47/48/51
Insights: BDV returns to the Valspar Championship as the defending champion and a very real threat to go back-to-back, something this event has seen more than once. His course history is elite (1st, 3rd, 33rd), and he’s consistently gained on approach and the greens here, which is a strong combination for Copperhead. The irons remain his biggest weapon — gaining in four straight starts and ranking near the top of the field in key approach metrics — while his putting has quietly trended upward, gaining in his last two events and projecting well on these Bermuda/Poa greens. The concern is off the tee, where he’s lost strokes in four of his last five starts, and his around-the-green play has been inconsistent despite a surprising spike last week that likely regresses. Still, if he drives it at even a field-average level, his elite approach play and comfort on this course should be enough to put him firmly in contention on Sunday. With strong Florida form and a profile that fits this track, Vik looks more like a co-favorite than just a defending champ — and fully capable of winning again.
Xander Schauffele
Odds: +1100
Stats: Top 75!! exclude TD (113), PROX (126), ARD (80), P3 (115)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: TG, OTT, APP, APP 200+, APP AVG, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, BA, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 3/24/7/19
Valspar Results: 12/5/12
Comp Results: 8/11/13/14/14/18/24/25/39/MC/MC
Insights: X man is a deserving odds favorite this week with one of the most complete and consistent profiles in the field. He’s gained strokes across all four key categories in each of his last four starts — including elite off-the-tee and approach play — and is coming off another strong ball-striking performance where he gained over +2 on approach. His course history is quietly excellent (12/5/12) with 7 of 12 rounds in the 60s, and he’s repeatedly put himself in position here, just lacking that final push. He leads the field in putting on Bermuda/Poa surfaces and ranks near the top in Florida performance and recent form, reinforcing how well his game travels to this setup. The only hesitation is price and closing ability this specific week — he’s often been a few shots off the lead despite strong Sundays — but statistically and stylistically, he checks every box. If he can finally string together four complete rounds instead of three, this sets up as a prime opportunity to convert and win.
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