Legend:
Odds - Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Rank: Based on Field Rank
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Valspar Results: Finishes at the Valspar Championship
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: The Concession, Sea Island (Seaside Course), and Muirfield Village
Matt Fitzpatrick
Odds: +1800
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 175200 (98), PUTT (104), P3 (76)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude APP 175200, SCR, PUTT, P3
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 2/41/24/14
Valspar Results: MC/5/MC
Comp Results: 3/5/9/11/27/31/68/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Fitzy enters this week as a high-upside but slightly polarizing option. His all-around game is trending well — gaining strokes in every category in three of his last four starts and finishing runner-up recently — and he ranks near the top of the field in a well-rounded statistical profile that fits this course. His history at Valspar is mixed (MC/5/MC), but the 5th-place finish included four straight rounds in the 60s, showing clear comfort when things click. The biggest question is whether he can mentally reset after a close call last week where missed short putts cost him, despite strong ball-striking. Looking over his last 25 starts, he has instances where he has backed up top 5 performances with another so, I wouldn’t be concerned on that front. Supporters will see a player on the verge of a win, while skeptics may view the price as a bit short given the inconsistency here. Which side of the debate are you on?
Viktor Hovland
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 100! exclude OTT (134), GIR (145), BS (137), BOB (109), BOB 200+ (106), P5 (101)
Rank: Top 75 exclude GIR, BS; Top 25: TG, APP, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB 175200, BA, P3
SG Gains: OTT 1/4, APP 4/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 13/13/41/58
Valspar Results: 1/33/3
Comp Results: 1/2/3/15/25/47/48/51
Insights: BDV returns to the Valspar Championship as the defending champion and a very real threat to go back-to-back, something this event has seen more than once. His course history is elite (1st, 3rd, 33rd), and he’s consistently gained on approach and the greens here, which is a strong combination for Copperhead. The irons remain his biggest weapon — gaining in four straight starts and ranking near the top of the field in key approach metrics — while his putting has quietly trended upward, gaining in his last two events and projecting well on these Bermuda/Poa greens. The concern is off the tee, where he’s lost strokes in four of his last five starts, and his around-the-green play has been inconsistent despite a surprising spike last week that likely regresses. Still, if he drives it at even a field-average level, his elite approach play and comfort on this course should be enough to put him firmly in contention on Sunday. With strong Florida form and a profile that fits this track, Vik looks more like a co-favorite than just a defending champ — and fully capable of winning again.
Xander Schauffele
Odds: +1100
Stats: Top 75!! exclude TD (113), PROX (126), ARD (80), P3 (115)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: TG, OTT, APP, APP 200+, APP AVG, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, BA, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 3/24/7/19
Valspar Results: 12/5/12
Comp Results: 8/11/13/14/14/18/24/25/39/MC/MC
Insights: X man is a deserving odds favorite this week with one of the most complete and consistent profiles in the field. He’s gained strokes across all four key categories in each of his last four starts — including elite off-the-tee and approach play — and is coming off another strong ball-striking performance where he gained over +2 on approach. His course history is quietly excellent (12/5/12) with 7 of 12 rounds in the 60s, and he’s repeatedly put himself in position here, just lacking that final push. He leads the field in putting on Bermuda/Poa surfaces and ranks near the top in Florida performance and recent form, reinforcing how well his game travels to this setup. The only hesitation is price and closing ability this specific week — he’s often been a few shots off the lead despite strong Sundays — but statistically and stylistically, he checks every box. If he can finally string together four complete rounds instead of three, this sets up as a prime opportunity to convert and win.
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Akshay Bhatia
Odds: +2200
Stats: Top 75!! exclude OTT (97), TD (96), OTT/TD AVG (97), BS (81)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: TG, APP, AP 175200, APP AVG, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, BA, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 13/1/16/6
Valspar Results: 17/MC/MC
Comp Results: 16/22/38/45/MC/MC
Insights: Smokeshow arrives as one of the hottest players in the field, and it shows in both form and underlying data. He’s gained on approach in five straight, rolling the rock with five consecutive gains, and has been positive off the tee in four of his last five — a well-rounded surge that’s produced elite results (13/1/16/6). Statistically, he ranks top-25% in the field across key scoring and ball-striking categories, and sits near the top of the field in overall form and model projections. The hesitation is a mixed bag of course history. He’s actually lost strokes off the tee, on approach, and around the green in multiple appearances, despite gaining on the greens each time. Last year’s opening 74 put him behind early before rebounding with solid rounds, suggesting this course can take him time to figure out. Still, the current version of Akshay is operating at a completely different level — now inside the top tier of the OWGR and FedEx standings. If his recent ball-striking and putting trends carry over, he has the firepower to contend and win again; the key will be avoiding the slow start that’s hurt him here in the past.
Jacob Bridgeman
Odds: +2200
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 200+ (148), ARD (97)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 200+; Top 25: TG, APP, GIR, BS, SCR, PUTT, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, BA, P3, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 5/18/1/8
Valspar Results: 3/MC
Comp Results: 31/54/MC/MC
Insights: Bridgeman is one of the most in-form players in the field and absolutely deserves serious consideration this week. His recent run (5/18/1/8) is elite, and when you extend it out, he’s been consistently near the top of leaderboards. Statistically, he checks a ton of boxes — gaining in three of four events off the tee and on approach, while the putter has been the real story, gaining over +0.8 strokes in every start this season. That kind of sustained putting run is rare and has clearly been carrying him, including last year here where he finished 3rd and gained nearly +2 on the greens with three rounds in the 60s. The concern is sustainability. Around-the-green play can be shaky, and relying this heavily on the putter week after week is tough to maintain. Still, the confidence and scoring ability are undeniable right now, and he’s already shown he can go low at this course, even leading after Round 1 last year. At 22/1, an outright win is well within reach if the putter stays hot, but the sharper angle may be targeting him for a fast start again — First Round Leader and 3-Ball markets stand out given his history and current form.
Corey Conners
Odds: +3000
Stats: Top 125 exclude ARD, PUTT, BOB, BOB 200+, P5
Rank: Top 75 exclude ARD, PUTT, BOB, BOB 200+, P5; Top 25: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP, GIR, PROX, APP AVG, BS
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 13/33/37/70
Valspar Results: 8/21/16
Comp Results: 10/13/20/22/22/23/25/37/39/44/54/65/MC
Insights: The Big Maple is a classic “if it all clicks” candidate this week at Valspar. As always, the ball-striking is the backbone — he’s gained off the tee in four straight and continues to rank among the best in the field in driving, approach, greens in regulation, and overall tee-to-green play. His course history is quietly solid (8/21/16), and he’s gained both Off the Tee and on approach in all three appearances here, which is exactly the formula that works at Copperhead. The issue, as usual, is the short game. Around-the-green play and putting remain inconsistent, and even when the irons show up, the putter often holds him back from truly contending. Recent form (13/33/37/70) reflects that volatility — flashes of strong play without putting together a complete week. At 30/1, the price doesn’t scream value for an outright given the reliance on everything syncing up, but this is the type of course and time of year where CC tends to spike. He’s more appealing for shorter-term exposure — first-round leader or early positioning — with the understanding that if the putter cooperates, he absolutely has the tee-to-green game to hang around the leaderboard into Sunday.
Ryo Hisatsune
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 175200 (111), SCR (82), PUTT (110), BOB 175200 (103)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude APP 175200, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB 175200
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, AD 3/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 13/33/45/8
Valspar Results: 4/33
Comp Results: 17/MC
Insights: Ryo is a lot more than just a “water bottle superstition” — he’s quietly one of the most complete tee-to-green players in this field right now. He’s gained off the tee in eight straight starts, on approach in seven straight, and around the green in seven of his last eight — that level of consistency across the board is elite and puts him firmly in the contender tier. His form backs it up (13/33/45/8), and he’s already proven he can handle this course with a 4th-place finish last year, including a Friday 66 and a Sunday 68 to finish just three shots back. The only thing holding him back is the putter. It’s been the clear weak link, losing strokes in his last three starts and only gaining in a few of his last seven. But that’s also what makes him so intriguing at 40/1 — if the putter simply gets to field average, his ball-striking alone gives him a legitimate chance to win. At worst, he’s a strong Top 20 and matchup play; at best, if the flat stick cooperates, First Round Leader and absolutely live to lift the trophy.
Max Homa
Odds: +6000
Stats: Top 100! exclude PROX (158), ARD (126), SCR (119), ARD/SCR AVG (123), BA (116), P4 (107)
Rank: Top 75 exclude PROX; Top 25: BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 32/13/37/66
Valspar Results: 6/MC/MC/MC
Comp Results: 5/6/22/22/37/51/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Maxxxxx sets up as a true feast-or-famine play this week at Valspar. The encouraging signs are there — he’s gaining off the tee and on approach in three of his last four starts, and the putter has been a real strength, gaining in six of his last seven. Last week’s card was chaotic (birdies and doubles everywhere), but the presence of scoring suggests the game isn’t far off — it’s about cleaning up mistakes, not finding form. The concern lies in consistency, especially around the green where he’s struggled, and historically at this course where results are mixed outside of a lone T6 in 2021. Even that run showed volatility, with three straight rounds in the 60s before a Sunday 74 derailed contention. His approach play has been steady but not sharp enough to separate, and that’s likely the key if he’s going to contend. At 60/1, the upside is baked into the number — if the ball-striking tightens and the putter stays hot, he can absolutely pop for a Top 10 or better. But the floor is just as real, making him more of a high-risk, high-reward option than a core play.
Brooks Koepka
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 100! exclude TD (148), OTT/TD AVG (101), SCR (107), PUTT (152), P3 (132)
Rank: Top 75 exclude TD, PUTT; Top 25: TG, APP, GIR, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, ARD, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 13/9/MC/56
Valspar Results: 2/MC
Comp Results: 2/31/52/62/MC
Insights: Brooks is one of the more tempting but tricky reads this week at Valspar. On paper, the ball-striking is there — he’s gained off the tee and on approach in four straight starts, with irons that still profile as elite when dialed in. Recent results (13th, 9th) could’ve been even better without late mistakes, which tells you he’s closer than it may appear. The issue is the putter — and it’s a real one. He hasn’t been gaining consistently on the greens, even dating back to LIV events, and historically his top finishes require a significant spike with the flat stick. Course fit is also a mild concern. Despite being a Florida native, he’s only played here sparingly with mixed results, which suggests Copperhead isn’t a perfect match for his eye. At 25/1, the name and pedigree will draw attention, but far from a guarentee. The upside is obvious if things clean up — especially those small closing mistakes — but until the putter shows life, he’s more of a fringe contender than a core play.
Justin Thomas
Odds: +1800
Stats: Doesn’t Qualify (only 3rd start of 2026)
Rank: Doesn’t Qualify (only 3rd start of 2026)
SG Gains: OTT 1/4, APP 1/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 8/MC/69/7
Valspar Results: 2/64/10/3/13/MC/18/10
Comp Results: 2/4/8/15/18/31/33/37/42/58/71/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: JT like many others is a tough reads in the field — and maybe one of the most dangerous. The sample size in 2026 is small, but the trajectory is clear: a rough showing at Arnold Palmer followed by a strong bounce-back top 10 at The Players where he was in the mix most of the week. That suggests he’s closer to “back” than many expected, especially with his around-the-green game still elite (gained in 4 straight) and approach play flashing again. Innisbrook is a proven fit — multiple top-10s including a 2nd and 3rd, with past success built on balanced tee-to-green play and timely putting spikes. That’s the key again this week. The putter has been inconsistent lately, but gained nicely last start, and if that carries over, it unlocks his full ceiling. The concern is off the tee, where he’s struggled in recent starts, and at this price, you’re paying for a near-complete performance. This feels like a “respect but don’t chase” spot. The upside absolutely screams contender — even winner — given his course history and pedigree, but the volatility (especially off the tee + putter consistency) makes him a risky buy at 18/1. If he puts it all together, no one will be surprised… but you’re betting on that full package showing up for four rounds. Comment below on what your read is on JT this week.