2026 Valspar Championship - Patio Preview, Key Stats, Tournament Trends & Early Models
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Patio Preview
Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course)
Palm Harbor, Florida
Champ’s home course ;)
Par 71 - 7,352 yards
Not an elevated event, but stronger field than a good portion of non-elevated events
133 players
Top 65 + Ties make cut
Greens: Poa Trivialis overseed
Average to small greens
About 6,000 sq ft
3-putts inside 5 feet are frequent
70+ bunkers
Water in play on 1/3 to 1/2 of holes depending who you are
It is difficult to hit fairways, but not a ton of missed fairway penalty/rough penalty
Average fairway width: 20 yards
Tree-lined
Driving Accuracy and Greens in Regulation well below PGA Tour average
One of, if not the lowest birdie or better percentage on Tour year after year
Birdie-to-Bogey ratio was just 0.84 last year (1.44 is Tour average)
70%+ of approach shots came from 150+ last year per DataGolf
40% from 150-200 yards
15%+ from 250+ yards
Five Par 3s
Average distance over 200 yards
2 of hardest 4 holes (Holes 8 & 13)
Bogey rate around 20%
2025 average score: 3.09
Nine Par 4s
Only 2 have a birdie rate north of 15%
7 have bogey rate of greater than 17%
Hardest hole - #16
Birdie rate sub 9%
Bogey rate 23%+
Double rate nearly 5%
2025 average score: 4.14
Four Par 5s
4 easiest holes
3 of 4 have birdie rate north of 34%
Hole 1 birdie rate almost 47%
Hole 5 = 605 yards
Lowest birdie rate of P5s (~23%)
15% bogey rate
2025 average score: 4.78
“The Snake Pit”
Holes 16, 17, 18
All 3 holes sub 13% birdie rate and at least 15% bogey rate
Desired player profile: Accurate driver (to avoid trees/water/bunkers) with dialed mid-to-long irons and spike upside on the greens
Recent Tournament History
2025: Viktor Hovland -11 (70-67-69-67); 1 Stroke Victory over Justin Thomas
2024: Peter Malnati -12 (66-71-68-67); 2 Stroke Victory over Cameron Young
2023: Taylor Moore -10 (71-67-69-67); 1 Stroke Victory over Adam Schenk
2022: Sam Burns -17 (64-67-67-69); Playoff Victory over Davis Riley
2021: Sam Burns -17 (67-63-69-68); 3 Stroke Victory over Keegan Bradley
2019: Paul Casey -8 (70-66-68-72); 1 Stroke Victory over Kokrak & Oosthuizen
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Champ - @Champs311
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Key Stats
Tier 1
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa Trivialis)
Par 5 BOB%
Driving Accuracy
Tier 2
Distance from Edge of Fairway
Greens-in-Regulation%
Approach 150-200 yards
Around-the-Green Proximity
Scrambling
Bogey Avoidance
Three-Putt Avoidance% (Poa Trivialis)
Tier 3
Putting inside 10’ (Poa Trivialis)
Approach 200+
Approach 250+
Strokes Gained: Toal (Innisbrook)
Champ’s Course Comps
The Concession
Sea Island (Seaside Course)
Muirfield Village
Last 6 Valspar Champ Tournament Trends
Odds
0-25: 2022, 2019
26-50: 2025
51-100: 2023, 2021
101+: 2024
Winner’s Strokes Behind Leader By Round
R1: 4/6 (67%) within 3 shots (1/6 led)
R2: 4/6 (67%) within 1 shot (2/6 led)
R3: 5/6 (83%) within 2 shots (3/6 led)
Winner’s Lead-In Form
6/6 (100%) with at least 1 Top 25 finish in their last 4 starts
5/6 (83%) with at least 2 Top 40 finishes in their last 4 starts
4/6 (67%) made the cut in their last start
4/6 (67%) with a Top 10 finish in their last 2 starts
2/6 (33%) with a Top 5 finish in their last 4 starts
0/6 (0%) with a WIN in their last 4 starts
Winner’s Valspar Championship History
6/6 (100%) with at least 1 prior appearance
5/6 (83%) with a made cut in a prior appearance
4/6 (67%) with 2 Top 40 finishes in prior appearances
4/6 (67%) made the cut in the start prior to their win
3/6 (50%) with a Top 5 finish in a prior appearance
2/6 (33%) were defending champions of the event
First Round Leader Tee Splits
AM: 83% (2025, 2024, 2023, 2021, 2019)
PM: 50% (2025, 2023, 2022)
*results can include instances where FRL from both AM/PM and both get credited with a win.
Early Models
Become a Clubhouse Member to unlock Champ and Sammy’s full models below, including our model weights where applicable
