2026 Valero Texas Open - Player Deep Dives
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Legend:
Odds - Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Rank: Based on Field Rank
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Valero Results: Finishes at the Valero Texas Open
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: TPC Summerlin, Port Royal Golf Course & Augusta National Golf Club
Ludvig Aberg
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 150175 (89), APP 175200 (91), SCR (141), ARD/SCR AVG (93), BA (76), P4 (77)
Rank: Top 75 exclude ARD; Top 25: TG, OTT, APP, GIR, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P3, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 5/3/20/37
Valero Results: MC/14/MC
Comp Results: 2/7/13/51
Insights: Sweeeed is one of the most complete players in the field, showing elite consistency across all four key metrics — gaining strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green, and putting in each of his last four starts. His recent form is the best in the field, with back-to-back top-5 finishes, and after a rough stretch of MC/WD earlier in 2026, his game has rebounded in a big way. Ball-striking history at Valero checks the boxes — gaining off the tee in all three starts and on approach in two — but course history is a bit murky, with just one round in the 60s (67) across eight rounds and losing strokes both around and on the greens in all three appearances. The flashes of brilliance lately have been electric: weekend rounds at Pebble (66-67), Riviera (69-66), and a closing 67 at Bay Hill. But my eyes, brain, and heart are still wobbly from that back nine Sunday at THE PLAYERS. This week won’t present that same level of pressure, but it’s something to monitor, especially with Georgia on my mind. Lastly, don’t forget this could a “homecoming” of sorts for the Texas Tech alum and perfect setting to close out his 3rd PGA Tour title at just 26 years of age. He’s clearly on the cusp of another win; however, course history and the lingering mental block of closing make +1600 difficult to back. I am in favor of betting him next week before his odds drop after a potential strong placement here. Alas, don’t be surprised if Ludvig becomes the first player since Phil Mickelson in 2006 to win the week before the Masters and then capture the Green Jacket. Quick math from the VCU alum: +1600 for both weeks, that “double” pays +28800. -C
Tommy Fleetwood
Odds: +1400
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 175200 (140), APP 200+ (120), PROX (110), PUTT (122)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 175200; Top 25: TG, OTT, APP, BS, ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, BA, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 8/49/7/4
Valero Results: 62/7
Comp Results: 3/14/17/19/21/33/36/46/MC
Insights: Tommmmyyyyy is one of the more interesting names near the top of the board — and a deeper dive shows his form is better than it may appear at first glance. Recent results, along with a strong last-ten stretch, highlight a player trending in the right direction and justify why oddsmakers have him priced among the favorites. The profile fits the course in key areas: off-the-tee and around-the-green play have been steady strengths, while approach and putting remain more volatile. Course history? Little of this, little of that. The 7th-place finish shows the upside, but he’s also struggled to fully piece it together, including a tough 74-81 weekend last year and just three rounds in the 60s across eight rounds played. He’s gained on approach and around the green in both appearances, but losses on the greens will need to be cleaned up this week. TPC San Antonio sets up more like a Tommy track compared to longer, distance-heavy venues like API, and recent performances at places like THE PLAYERS and Pebble reinforce that fit. At +1400, it’s easy to see why he’s among the favorites given his all-around game and consistency, but with the putter and approach acting as swing factors, he feels more like a logical contender than a must-back outright this week. Fleetwood slated as a Hat Tip pick — the only question is who joins him. -C
Russell Henley
Odds: +1800
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 175200 (130), APP 200+ (146), APP AVG (76), BOB 200+ (80)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 200+; Top 25: TG, APP, APP 150175, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, BA, P3, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 13/6/MC/19
Valero Results: 4/52/MC
Comp Results: 4/10/11/15/21/21/24/27/30/31/37/38/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: If you think this week’s winner will be an accurate driver of the golf ball that can putt better than most and clean up around the greens, then you should be betting the Russ Bus. Over the last two months, Henley leads the field in Driving Accuracy and Distance from the Edge of the Fairway, and he’s gained with the irons all but twice in his last nine outings since the Tour Championship — where he finished 2nd. Hitting greens is the biggest question mark for Russ this week, as he lost strokes on Approach three events in a row from Pebble to API, but he found it at the Players, which is an encouraging sign considering he had gained on Approach in 10 straight events prior to that skid. That said, he’s still Top 30 in this field in GIR% over his last 24 rounds and 7th in Good Drive% over the last 2 months. Assuming it all clicks again for Russ this week like it did at the Players (gains in all major categories), he should be near the top of the leaderboard come Sunday. His solo 4th finish here last year highlights his upside at this course, as he gained in all major SG categories — including over 7.5 strokes on Approach. -S
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Ryo Hisatsune
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP 150175 (75), APP 175200 (99), SCR (82), ARD/SCR AVG (56), PUTT (102), BOB 175200 (95)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude APP 150175, APP 175200, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB 175200
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 30/13/33/45
Valero Results: 5/78
Comp Results: 29/52
Insights: Randy Orton’s RKO has a flair for the dramatic, but Ryo may just be the one delivering the finishing move this week. He is a quietly intriguing option with a profile that fits this course better than most realize. His off-the-tee game has been extremely consistent, with approach not far behind, giving him a strong tee-to-green foundation. Course history adds to the appeal: a 5th-place finish here last year where he gained across all four major statistical categories. The concern is the actual “finisher” — just one round in the 60s across eight rounds here, including a Sunday 77 here in 2024, and a recent stretch without four complete rounds in the 60s (only three in his last sixteen rounds). Still, we’re viewing him in a different tier given his strokes gained profile in 2026 outside of the flat stick — if the putter cooperates, there’s clear Top 10 upside. At +3500, he profiles similarly to players like Fleetwood who thrive on courses where ball striking matters, making him a strong consideration for placement markets with room to pop if everything clicks. -C
Si Woo Kim
Odds: +2000
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude PUTT (139), P5 (67)
Rank: Top 75 exclude PUTT; Top 25 exclude PUTT, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 50/13/34/45
Valero Results: MC/39/13/23/4/45/22/MC
Comp Results: 8/8/12/15/21/24/25/29/30/34/39/55/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Si Woo has been on TBCH radar all year, and given his statistical profile and overall form this season, he makes a lot of sense this week. Sitting 1st in my early-week model ahead of the Valero, SWK ranks Top 20 in the field in T2G, APP, ARG, OTT, Accuracy, ARG Proximity, Bogey Avoidance, Three-Putt Avoidance and SG: Par 4. He hemorrhaged strokes with his irons at the Players, but prior to that, he had gained in every measured event dating back to the St. Jude in August (10+ events). The issue with betting SWK is and seemingly always will be the flat stick. He was a slight positive in his last time out, but he’s lost significant strokes on the greens in six of his eight events this year. That said, he’s actually been a positive putter historically at this course. Last year (-1.7) was his worst performance here and his first substantially negative putting performance since his first appearance in San Antonio back in 2016. From 2017-2022, SWK gained at least 0.8 strokes Putting in all five appearances here. That historical putting success makes me think there’s winning upside for our boy this week, especially given how good he typically is in the ball-striking department, as well as around the greens. -S
Robert MacIntyre
Odds: +2000
Stats: Top 125 exclude APP, APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP, APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG; Top 25: OTT, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, BA, P3, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 1/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 4/24/20/37
Valero Results: 35 (69-69-76-69, 2022)
Comp Results: 12/23/MC
Insights: Bobby Mac comes into this week with a profile that’s both intriguing and a bit tricky to trust at the price. Recent form and broader stretch over his last 10 starts show a player trending in the right direction, with multiple strong finishes and the win at the Alfred Dunhill mixed in, but underlying stats tell a more complicated story. The putter has been doing a lot of the heavy lifting, while approach play has lagged — gaining in just one of his last four starts. That said, his off-the-tee game has been elite recently, particularly at THE PLAYERS and API, and combined with a strong short game, it gives him a path to the top of the leaderboard this week. His lone start at TPC San Antonio was quietly solid — gaining in all four categories and sat just four back of the lead heading into the weekend before a 76 derailed things. The hesitation comes at the betting number: historically, he hasn’t consistently backed up top finishes with another spike week, which makes +2000 feel a bit tight. Still, with his comfort in windy conditions and the lefty narrative in play (see recent winners here playing from the “wrong” side: Harman, Bhatia), MacIntyre has the pieces to contend, but I recommend a placement bet (Top 10, Top 20) or just keep tabs on him this week as a darkhouse for Magnolia Lane at a much more attractive number. -C
Hideki Matsuyama
Odds: +2200
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude OTT (121), GIR (73), BS (100), BOB 150175 (84), BOB AVG (51)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude OTT, GIR, BS, BOB 150175
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 2/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 27/41/28/8
Valero Results: MC/7/15/WD/30
Comp Results: 1/5/7/10/11/13/14/16/16/19/21/27/32/38/54/67/MC/MC
Insights: Deki enters this week as one of the more difficult players to get a firm read on. His recent form and longer-term results still show plenty of upside — multiple Top 10s and even a win in his last 10 starts — but the path to contention feels a bit unclear right now. Off-the-tee play remains the biggest concern, and with approach also dipping in two of his last three starts, it raises questions about where his ball-striking truly stands especially on a track this week that requires both to be clicking. That said, he did gain across approach, around-the-green, and putting in his last start at THE PLAYERS, which offers some optimism. Course history at the Valero is mixed: flashes of strong play, including low rounds of 66 and 68 in recent years, but he’s yet to string together four complete rounds here and has never gained on the greens in five starts. Hideki has the ceiling to win any event and this is the odds sweet spot, but with that still boxes that need to be checked and require backers to have a leap of faith. -C
Alex Noren
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 100! exclude OTT (119), APP 200+ (158), BS (109), BOB 200+ (107), P3 (112)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 200+; Top 25: ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, P4
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 32/24/12/29
Valero Results: 14/15
Comp Results: 2/3/15/44/62/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Alex Noren is an interesting case study this week. He has yet to finish in the Top 10 this season, but after starting the year with two missed cuts, he’s finished in the Top 35 in four straight events. Pair that with two Top 15 finishes in his only two appearances here in 2023 and 2024, and the fit really makes sense. However, Noren has been absolutely carried by his short game this season, where he ranks 7th in ARG and 15th in PUTT in this field over his last 14 rounds. Can that propel him to a win in a semi-strong field? I’m pessimistic, but I do see some upside for him in San Antonio. He’s 14th in Driving Accuracy over his last 24 rounds, while he’s 15th in SG: Par 4s. That said, sitting just 44th in Approach and 70th in GIR, there’s likely to be a little too much stress on the short game yet again this week. Placement bet or DFS exposure makes most sense for Noren this week, as 40/1 on a 43-year old golfer that’s never won the PGA Tour feels too light in the outright market. -S
Jordan Spieth
Odds: +1800
Stats: Top 100! exclude OTT (113), APP 150175 (123), APP 175200 (142), APP 200+ (141), PROX (122), APP AVG (108), BOB 150175 (117)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 175200, APP 200+; Top 25: TG, APP, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 175200, BA, P3, P5
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 11/32/11/12
Valero Results: 12/10/35/1/30/2/10/MC/41
Comp Results: 1/2/2/3/3/4/11/14/21/46/55/MC/MC
Insights: Jordy has immaculate course history at TPC San Antonio. He’s played here nine times, and the only times he finished outside the Top 35 were in his first two appearances back in 2012 (T41) and 2013 (MC). Since then, he’s finished 10, 2, T30, 1, T35, T10, T12, with the latter four starts all coming post-pandemic. Last year, his short game around here was excellent, but it was one of his worst ball-striking performances here despite the T12 finish. That’s concerning for me ahead of this week’s event, as Spieth hasn’t been the best off the tee of late. In fact, he’s 79th in this field in SG: OTT in his last 24 rounds, as well as 93rd in Driving Accuracy. Oddly enough, despite his solid putting marks this season, he’s also 99th inside of 10 feet over his last 24 rounds on Poa Trivialis greens and 73d in Three-Putt Avoidance in that same sample. At the price, there’s enough here to keep me off Spieth in the outright market, but I’m anxiously awaiting a chance to “be early” on him this year, as I do see a win in 2026 coming for him — maybe at a course that will punish him less for wayward tee shots. Spieth makes for an interesting One-and-Done or DFS play this week, but in the betting markets, I would probably stick with FRL or placements. -S
Sepp Straka
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 75!! exclude SCR (94), PUTT (91), BOB 150175 (161), P4 (97)
Rank: Top 75 exclude BOB 150175; Top 25: TG, APP, APP 150175, APP 175200, APP 200+, APP AVG, BS, ARD, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P3, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 8/13/50/2
Valero Results: 22/67/MC
Comp Results: 16/21/30/43/46/51/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Like Russ, Sepp is another player that comes to mind when I think of accurate drivers with excellent short game. It’s been a roller coaster of a season for Straka thus far, but a T2 at Pebble and a T8 at Players prove the upside is there on any given week. His course history here is lacking (only one of 10 rounds in the 60s), but that’s not a dealbreaker for me this week. At least he’s improved with every start here, going from MC (2019) to T67 (2021) and then to T22 (2023) in his three starts. In that T22 finish, he had solid gains on APP and PUTT and was basically even OTT and ARG. I smell improvement in those areas this week. In this field, Sepp ranks 8th in T2G and 5th in APP, while he’s Top 15 in Par 5 BOB% and Approach from 50-100 — which is the only approach bucket I’m measuring this week. With an outright price in the mid-20s, I believe there is some value to be had on Sepp in this field, he just needs it all to click like it did at Pebble and Sawgrass. For what it’s worth, these are Sepp’s finishes in the events prior to his last 10 majors: 7, 3, 1, T28, MC (Scottish), T5, T8, MC (Valspar), 1 and T16. -S