2026 Valero Texas Open - Patio Preview, Key Stats, Tournament Trends & Early Models
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Field List
Patio Preview
TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course)
San Antonio, Texas
Not an elevated event
133 players, Top 65 & ties make cut
Greg Norman design (with Sergio Garcia influence)
One of the longer-standing PGA Tour venues
Last chance for golfers to play way into Masters
Top 50 world ranking or win PGA event
Par 72, 7,400+ yards
Greens: Poa Trivialis (bermuda has not grown in yet)
Just under 6,500 sq ft average green size
Lower-than-average GIR rate
10% below average last 2 years
Green comps: TPC Scottsdale, TPC Sawgrass, Innisbrook
60+ bunkers
Driving Accuracy well below Tour average, as fairways on the narrow side
Missing fairway in rough is more than manageable
Aforementioned lower-than-average GIR rate = Around-the-Green necessities
ARG Proximity closer to 7 feet than the typical 7.5-8 feet
Have to get it close for high one-putt looks.
One-putt% above 45% last 2 years (PGA average 39.5%)
4 Par 3s: 171 - 241 yards
#13 = 1 of 4 most difficult holes on course
Average score above 3.1 last 2 years
10 Par 4s: 347-481 yards
5 of the 6 most difficult holes on course
Average score 4.07 or higher last 5 years (PGA average 4.03)
4 Par 5s: 553-604
#14 - only Par 5 with higher than a 33% birdie rate (44.8%)
Par 5 BOB% just 31.7% last year
Driver usage slightly above PGA Tour average
Birdie-to-Bogey ratio just 0.94-0.97 last 2 years
Difficult conditions tee-to-green
Recent Tournament History
2025: Brian Harman -9 (66-66-72-75); 3 Stroke Victory over Ryan Gerard
2024: Akshay Bhatia -20 (63-70-68-67); Playoff Victory over Denny McCarthy
2023: Corey Conners -15 (64-72-69-68); 1 Stroke Victory over Samuel Stevens
2022: J.J. Spaun -13 (67-70-69-69); 2 Stroke Victory over Matt Jones & Matt Kuchar
2021: Jordan Spieth -18 (67-70-67-66); 2 Stroke Victory over Charley Hoffman
2019: Corey Conners -20 (69-67-66-66); 2 Stroke Victory over Charley Hoffman
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Key Stats
Tier 1
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa Triv)
Tier 2
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
Driving Accuracy
Greens-in-Regulation%
ARG Proximity
Bogey Avoidance
Three-Putt Avoidance% (Poa Triv)
Tier 3
Strokes Gained: Par 4
Par 5 BOB%
Approach 50-100 yards
Putting Inside 10’ (Poa Triv)
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (Long-Very Long Courses)
Champ’s Course Comps
TPC Summerlin
Port Royal Golf Course
Augusta National Golf Club
Last 6 Valero Texas Open Tournament Trends
Odds
0-25: 2023, 2021
26-50:
51-100: 2025, 2024
101+: 2022, 2019
Winner’s Strokes Behind Leader By Round
R1: 6/6 (100%) within 3 shots (2/6 led)
R2: 6/6 (100%) within 4 shots (2/6 led)
R3: 6/6 (100%) within 1 shot (4/6 led)
Winner’s Lead-In Form
5/6 (83%) with at least 2 Top 35 finishes in their last 4 starts
4/6 (67%) made the cut in their last start
4/6 (67%) with at least 1 Top 20 in their last 4 starts
3/6 (50%) with at least 1 Top 20 finish in their last 2 starts
2/6 (33%) made the cut in both of their last 2 starts
1/6 (17%) with a Top 10 finish in their last 4 starts
1/6 (17%) with a Top 5 finish in their last 4 starts
0/6 (0%) with a WIN in their last 4 starts
Winner’s Houston Open History
6/6 (100%) made at least 1 prior appearance before their win
5/6 (83%) with at least 1 Top 30 finish in a prior appearance
5/6 (83%) made the cut in their last appearance prior to their win
4/6 (67%) made at least 4 prior appearances before their win
3/6 (50%) with at least 2 Top 20 finishes in past appearances
2/6 (33%) with at least 1 Top 5 finish in a prior appearance
1/6 (17%) was a previous winner at the event
First Round Leader Tee Splits
AM: 33% (2022, 2019)
PM: 67% (2025, 2024, 2023, 2021)
*results can include instances where FRL from both AM/PM and both get credited with a win.
Early Models
Follow this link for direct access to Sammy’s weekly GoogleSheet, where publishes all his models
Course History
