Legend:
Odds: Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Rank: Based on Field Rank
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
USO Results: Finishes at US Opens
Shinnecock Results: Finishes at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Oakdale Golf & Country Club, TPC Twin Cities & The Concession Golf Club
Rory McIlroy
Odds: +1000
Stats: n/a
Rank: n/a
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 12/7/19/1
USO Results: 19/2/2/5/7/8/9/MC/MC/MC/9/23/41/MC/1/MC/10
Shinnecock Results: MC (80-70, 2018)
Comp Results: 6/9
Insights: Rory’s season has understandably been viewed through the lens of the Masters victory, but it’s easy to overlook just how solid the overall major form has been. In his two majors this year he’s posted a win at Augusta and a T7 at the PGA, while his limited schedule since April has kept him relatively fresh heading into one of the biggest tests of the season. The ball striking remains exactly where you’d want it, gaining both Off-the-Tee and on Approach in each of his last four starts. The short game has been more of a mixed bag, with the putter producing a strong spike at the PGA Championship before settling back to field average at both the Masters and Memorial. When it comes to the U.S. Open, few players can match Rory’s recent consistency. Since missing the cut at Shinnecock in 2018, he’s rattled off seven consecutive U.S. Open finishes inside the Top 20, including six Top 10s and back-to-back runner-up finishes in 2023 and 2024. That’s an incredible level of consistency in a championship designed to expose every weakness in a player’s game. It’s also worth noting that this marks 15 years since his breakthrough U.S. Open victory at Congressional, and while that feels like a lifetime ago, his current form suggests another serious run is well within reach.Shinnecock should fit the strengths of his game far more than the result from 2018 would indicate. Elite driving, strong long-iron play, and the ability to handle difficult scoring conditions are all traits that have defined recent U.S. Open champions. Add in the fact that every U.S. Open winner since 2019 entered the week with a victory already that season, and Rory checks yet another historical box. The profile is easy to like, the major pedigree is unquestioned, and there are very few red flags entering the week. At 10/1 you’re paying for one of the most likely winners in the field, but it’s hard to argue he doesn’t have every tool needed to finally turn those recent near misses into another U.S. Open title. -C
Jon Rahm
Odds: +1400
Stats: n/a
Rank: n/a
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 2/16/2/8
USO Results: 7/10/12/1/23/3/MC/MC/23
Shinnecock Results: MC (78-77, 2018)
Comp Results: 32
Insights: Jon Rahm continues to put himself in contention almost every time he tees it up. In 11 starts this season, he’s posted nine Top 8s, eight Top 5s, seven finishes of runner-up or better, and two victories. The runner-up at the PGA Championship was another reminder that the game is still in elite shape, and he followed that with another second-place finish in Spain where the only thing holding him back was an opening-round 73. The ball-striking remains exactly where you’d expect, gaining Off-the-Tee in four straight starts and on Approach in three of his last four. His U.S. Open record may not jump off the page like Rory’s, but it’s quietly one of the strongest in the field. The 2021 champion has finished T12 or better in each of the last four U.S. Opens and owns six Top 12 finishes in nine career starts. The missed cut at Shinnecock in 2018 feels largely irrelevant given how much his game has matured since then. Add in the fact that every U.S. Open winner since 2019 had already won that season and Rahm checks yet another key trend box. At 14/1, you’re paying for one of the most complete profiles in the field, and it’s hard to find many reasons he won’t be in the mix again come Sunday. -C
Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +500
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 175200 (81), APP 200+ (85), PROX (128)
Rank: Top 75 exclude PROX; Top 25 exclude APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BOB 175200, P3
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 12/3/14/2
USO Results: 7/41/3/2/7/MC/27/MC
Shinnecock Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 5
Insights: Scottie Scheffler arrives at Shinnecock as the deserved favorite, even if the win column has been surprisingly quiet by his standards. Since winning his first start of the season, he’s gone 11 straight events without a victory, yet still owns 10 Top 20s, seven Top 10s, seven Top 5s, and six finishes of third or better in 12 starts. The ball striking remains elite, gaining both Off-the-Tee and on Approach in four straight starts, while the short game flashed back to peak form at Memorial with his best around-the-green performance in months. As always, the question isn’t whether Scottie will create chances—it’s whether the putter does enough to separate him from the field when the pressure mounts. His U.S. Open record suggests another serious run is coming. After a missed cut in his debut, Scheffler has posted finishes of 7th, 2nd, 3rd, 41st, and 7th over his last five appearances, proving he has both the consistency and ceiling required to contend in this championship. This marks the 15th consecutive major where he’s opened at single-digit odds, and every U.S. Open winner since 2019 entered the week with a victory already that season. Add in the possibility of moving one step closer to the career Grand Slam and celebrating his 30th birthday with a trophy on Sunday, and the storyline is easy to see. At 5/1 you’re paying a premium, but you’re also betting on the player with the highest floor in the field and arguably the highest ceiling if the putter cooperates. -C
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The following Player Deep Dives available for Bettor Clubhouse Subscribers: Ludvig Aberg, Sam Burns, Wyndham Clark, Bryson DeChambeau, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood, Chris Gotterup, Tyrrell Hatton, Russell Henley, Si Woo Kim, Brooks Koepka, Hideki Matsuyama, Collin Morikawa, Patrick Reed, Justin Rose, Xander Schauffele, J.J. Spaun, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, and Cameron Young!
Ludvig Aberg
Odds: +2200
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 175200 (120), SCR (101), ARD/SCR AVG (78)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 175200; Top 25 exclude APP 175200, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB 175200, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 39/17/4/8
USO Results: MC/12
Shinnecock Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 25/64
Insights: Ludvig Aberg remains one of the most intriguing players on the board this week. The results have cooled slightly with finishes of 39th and 17th in his last two starts, but zoom out and the overall profile is still extremely strong. In 13 starts this season he owns eight Top 20s, six Top 10s, five Top 5s, and a victory at Torrey Pines. The concern is that the areas most likely to determine a U.S. Open winner have been trending the wrong way recently. His approach play has slipped closer to field average over the last two starts, he’s lost strokes around the green in back-to-back events, and the putter continues its week-to-week rollercoaster. If Ludvig contends this week, it will likely be because the elite ball striking returns while the short game simply avoids becoming a liability. His U.S. Open sample is small but telling. A 12th-place finish on debut showcased the upside, while last year’s missed cut highlighted the volatility that still exists in his profile. Across his major championship career, he’s already produced two Top 5s in just ten starts, including a T4 at this year’s PGA Championship, but the progression has been uneven. The talent is undeniable and the number is certainly more appealing than we’ve seen most of the season, yet the recent decline around the greens stands out on a course where scrambling and patience will be tested all week. I was on him at the PGA and off him the last two starts, and that radar has served us well. The question this week is whether the price finally outweighs the concerns. -C
Sam Burns
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude ARD (106), SCR (96), ARD/SCR AVG (101), P3 (97)
Rank: Top 75 exclude ARD; Top 25: PUTT, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 20/4/26/37
USO Results: 7/9/32/27/MC/41/MC
Shinnecock Results: 41 (71-76-75-72, 2018)
Comp Results: MC
Insights: Sam Burns arrives at Shinnecock carrying some of the better recent form in the field, even if the results don’t fully tell the story. He was one shot shy of the playoff at Memorial and followed that with a first-round lead and a share of second at the halfway mark in Canada before a cold putter over the weekend led to a disappointing T20 finish. That’s the frustrating part with Burns right now—he keeps putting himself in position. Over his last two starts he’s gained strokes in every major category, ranking 7th and 12th in Tee-to-Green respectively, while the putter that carried him for much of his career remains one of the biggest weapons in the field when it heats up. The U.S. Open profile is becoming increasingly attractive. Burns has posted back-to-back Top 10 finishes in this championship, including a 54-hole lead last year before weather and a difficult Sunday derailed his chances. He’s now made eight consecutive cuts in majors and owns three Top 10s over that stretch, highlighted by strong performances at both the Masters and U.S. Open. Steve Bamford noted that 13 of the last 17 U.S. Open champions were still searching for their first major title, a trend Burns fits perfectly. At 40/1, the number is far more appealing than the 14/1 we were forced to stomach last week, and it’s easy to see why many will be willing to jump back aboard. Whether I have the courage to do it again after the last two weeks is another question entirely. -C
Wyndham Clark
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 75!! exclude OTT (94), SCR (85)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: TG, APP, APP 200+, APP AVG, ARD, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P3
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 11/3/1/MC
USO Results: MC/56/1/MC/MC
Shinnecock Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 5/12/38/MC/MC
Insights: Wyndham Clark enters Shinnecock with a profile that feels very similar to the version of himself that captured the 2023 U.S. Open. After a win at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, a third-place finish at Memorial, and an 11th last week in Canada where he sat third heading into Sunday, Clark is once again finding his game at the perfect time. The biggest development has been the complete turnaround with the putter since switching to the long putter, gaining strokes in six straight starts, while recent spikes in approach and around-the-green play have created the same formula that makes him dangerous in major championships. He has already shown he can handle difficult conditions with wins at Pebble Beach and a fourth-place finish at The Open Championship, making Shinnecock a course where his patience and creativity could shine. The concern is obvious: the driver. Clark’s OTT numbers have been a rollercoaster, and at a U.S. Open venue that demands precision, it will likely determine whether he’s a contender or a missed-cut candidate. In majors where he has lost strokes off the tee, his results have been mostly poor (MC-MC-MC-MC-56-4), but when the rest of the game clicks, his ceiling is as high as anyone in this range. At 35/1, Clark offers one of the bigger boom-or-bust profiles in the field, but the upside is undeniable. While some may gravitate toward Sam Burns at a similar price point, I’m more confident in Clark’s ability to contend on Sunday if the driver cooperates. The 2023 champion has the tools to make another run — he just needs the most important club in the bag to show up. -C
Bryson DeChambeau
Odds: +2200
Stats: n/a
Rank: n/a
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 11/3/MC/3
USO Results: MC/1/20/56/26/1/35/25/MC/15/MC
Shinnecock Results: 25 (76-69-73-74, 2018)
Comp Results:
Insights: Bryson DeChambeau remains one of the most fascinating U.S. Open profiles in the field because his ceiling in this championship is undeniable. He has won twice in the last six U.S. Opens, including a victory at Pinehurst in 2024, and his current form on paper looks strong with two wins, five Top 5s, and seven Top 20s in 11 starts this season. The blueprint for success is obvious: elite driving, a creative short game, and a putting stroke that can get hot at the right time. He has also proven he can handle demanding setups, with wins at venues like Winged Foot and Pinehurst. However, the underlying numbers tell a much different story than the results. The concern is that Bryson’s game has become far more volatile, especially compared to the player who dominated this championship in previous years. Since joining LIV, the approach play has noticeably declined, and in 2026 he has gained over a stroke in approach in zero of 11 starts while struggling around the greens in his biggest events. His major results since the 2024 U.S. Open win have been boom-or-bust (MC-MC-10-MC-2-5-MC), and while the popularity and past success will keep him priced in this range, there are too many areas currently leaking strokes to trust him. At +2200, it feels like you’re betting on the ceiling rather than the current form. If Bryson finds the all-around game that produced his two U.S. Open wins, he can obviously win — but the more likely outcome for me is another missed cut rather than a return to the top of the leaderboard. -C
Matt Fitzpatrick
Odds: +2600
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP 175200 (60), PUTT (102), BOB 175200 (91)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude OTT, APP 175200, PUTT, BOB 175200, BOB AVG
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 2/36/14/52
USO Results: 38/64/17/1/55/MC/12/12/35/54/48
Shinnecock Results: 12 (73-70-75-70, 2018)
Comp Results: 11/20
Insights: Matt Fitzpatrick enters Shinnecock with arguably one of the strongest U.S. Open profiles in this range, combining current form, course history, and a game built for difficult setups. Fitzpatrick already owns a U.S. Open title from 2022, where he navigated a brutal Country Club test by gaining strokes in the key areas required to win this championship. Since then, he has added more distance off the tee without sacrificing the elite short game that has always been his calling card. After a quieter start in Canada, Fitzpatrick closed with back-to-back rounds of 66 and 64 to finish runner-up, continuing a season that already includes three wins. His recent major form has also been quietly impressive, with finishes of 14-18-4-38-8 over his last five starts. The biggest reason to like Fitzpatrick this week is the fit. He finished 12th at Shinnecock in 2018 and showed a similar blueprint to what he brings into this week: elite approach play, strong scrambling, and enough patience to handle a demanding U.S. Open setup. The putter remains the biggest question mark, but his approach and around-the-green play have been trending in the right direction, including back-to-back elite weeks in greens in regulation. At 26/1, he may be one of the more popular picks on the board, but it’s difficult to argue against the profile. If the driver becomes a strength instead of simply holding steady, Fitzpatrick has a legitimate chance to add another major championship to an already impressive résumé. -C
Tommy Fleetwood
Odds: +2200
Stats: Top 75!! exclude GIR (87), APP 175200 (112), PROX (93), BOB 175200 (104)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 175200; Top 25: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP 200+, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB 200+, BA, P3, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 11/4/MC/5
USO Results: MC/16/5/MC/50/MC/65/2/4/27
Shinnecock Results: 2 (75-66-78-63, 2018)
Comp Results: 2/44/MC
Insights: Tommy Fleetwood arrives at Shinnecock with one of the strongest course fits in the field, returning to the site where he nearly chased down Brooks Koepka with a runner-up finish in 2018. That week, Fleetwood gained over a stroke off the tee, on approach, and putting, highlighted by rounds of 66 and a closing 63 that nearly completed one of the great U.S. Open comebacks. His current form suggests another opportunity is brewing, with finishes of 11th-4th-5th in his last three starts and a driving profile that continues to be one of his biggest strengths. Fleetwood ranks among the best in the field in total driving and tee-to-green play, and his approach game has shown signs of returning after a quieter stretch. The biggest question is whether the short game can hold up under U.S. Open pressure. Fleetwood has lost strokes around the green in four straight majors and five of his last seven, including struggles at both the Masters and PGA Championship, and Shinnecock will demand elite scrambling throughout the week. The encouraging sign is the putter, which has started to become a weapon again with spikes at the Masters and Memorial, giving him the upside needed to contend in a major. At 22/1, the profile is similar to Fitzpatrick’s — a proven U.S. Open performer with the game to thrive in a difficult setup — and while the final decision between the two is a tough one, Fleetwood’s ceiling is undeniable. If the around-the-green game cooperates, the 2018 Shinnecock runner-up has a legitimate path to finally breaking through for his first major championship. -C
Chris Gotterup
Odds: +4500
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 175200 (110), APP 200+ (100), PROX (114), APP AVG (84)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 175200; Top 25 TG, OTT, PUTT, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 27/10/14/38
USO Results: 23/43
Shinnecock Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 10/31/59
Insights: Chris Gotterup checks nearly every box I’m looking for in a U.S. Open contender at a number that should attract plenty of attention this week. The 26-year-old has quickly established himself as one of the best young players in the game, winning twice already this season while adding a 10th at the PGA Championship and 24th at the Masters. His major résumé is especially impressive for such a small sample size, making the cut in five of six starts with two Top 10s and a third-place finish at last year’s Open Championship. He has gained strokes off the tee in all six majors, gained on approach in five of six, and arrives at Shinnecock with the kind of well-rounded profile that translates to difficult championship setups. The biggest question is whether the around-the-green game can hold up, as that has been the one inconsistent piece in his recent form. The good news is the putter has become a major weapon, gaining in four straight starts, including a strong performance at the PGA Championship. Add in his ties to the New York area — growing up in New Jersey, attending Rutgers, and having familiarity with the conditions — and it’s easy to see why Gotterup will be one of the more popular long-shot plays this week. At 45/1, the upside is massive for a player who already has shown he can compete on the biggest stages. With 13 of the last 17 U.S. Open champions still searching for their first major title, Gotterup fits the profile of the next breakthrough candidate. -C
Tyrrell Hatton
Odds: +3500
Stats: n/a
Rank: n/a
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 1/MC/17/5
USO Results: 4/26/27/56/MC/MC/21/6/MC
Shinnecock Results: 6 (75-70-72-69, 2018)
Comp Results: 3/22
Insights: Tyrrell Hatton continues to check many of the boxes we look for in a U.S. Open contender, and Shinnecock may be one of the best fits on the calendar. Hatton arrives with plenty of confidence after winning at Valderrama, a course that demands the same type of control, patience, and creativity required this week. His 2026 résumé has been excellent with 10 made cuts in 11 starts, six Top 20s, five Top 10s, and four Top 5s, while his major form has quietly become one of the strongest in the field. Over his last 10 majors, Hatton has eight made cuts with five Top 20s, three Top 10s, and two Top 5s, including career-best finishes at last year’s U.S. Open and this year’s Masters. The biggest question is whether the putter can stay hot, as that has been the most volatile part of his game this season. Hatton gained over a stroke on the greens in his win at Andalucia, but expecting another elite putting week is always a difficult ask. The encouraging signs are the approach and around-the-green play, which have been consistent strengths, and his history at Shinnecock provides another reason for optimism after finishing sixth in 2018. That week he gained nearly a stroke on approach and over a stroke around the green and putting, showing the exact formula needed to contend here. At 35/1, Hatton fits into the same mold as Fitzpatrick and Fleetwood — proven major performers with the game to handle a demanding U.S. Open setup — but with a little extra value attached. If the putter cooperates, another major breakthrough is very much within reach. -C
Russell Henley
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 125 exclude APP 200+, BOB 200+ (126)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 200+, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG; Top 25: TG, PROX, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BA, P3, P4
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 22/1/MC/49
USO Results: 10/7/14/MC/13/25/27/MC/60/MC/42/16
Shinnecock Results: 25 (69-73-77-73, 2018)
Comp Results: MC/MC
Insights: Russell Henley fits the same mold as Fitzpatrick, Fleetwood, and Hatton — a proven major performer with the all-around game required for a demanding U.S. Open setup, but at a much bigger number. Henley enters Shinnecock with renewed confidence after finally breaking through at Colonial, followed by a strong 22nd at Memorial and a 49th last week in Canada. While the recent results have been a bit uneven, the underlying major profile is impressive. Henley has made seven of his last 10 major cuts with five Top 10s, including three Top 10 finishes in his last four majors, and he has been especially strong in this championship with Top 10 finishes at both the 2023 and 2024 U.S. Opens. The biggest question is whether the approach game can hold up against a Shinnecock setup that will demand quality long-iron play. Henley’s short game remains a major asset, ranking among the best in the field in both around-the-green play and putting, and he has gained strokes around the green in all five of his recent U.S. Open starts. His 2018 Shinnecock performance also provides some confidence after opening with a 69 to share the first-round lead before settling for a T25. At 40/1, Henley offers a similar profile to the players above but with more uncertainty around his current form. The Colonial win showed the ceiling is still there, but he’ll need the approach game to return to its elite level for a true Sunday run. If it does, Henley has quietly built one of the stronger major résumés in this field. -C
Si Woo Kim
Odds: +4500
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP 200+ (54), PUTT (101)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude TD, APP 200+, SCR, PUTT, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 10/2/35/65
USO Results: 42/32/39/MC/40/MC/MC/MC/13
Shinnecock Results: MC (73-76, 2018)
Comp Results: 46/MC/MC
Insights: Si Woo Kim is one of the more interesting upside plays in this field, even if the U.S. Open has not traditionally been his strongest championship. Outside of a T13 finish in 2024, his results have been mostly underwhelming, including a missed cut at Shinnecock in 2018 despite actually gaining nearly 1.5 strokes putting that week. However, the current version of Kim enters with arguably the best form of his career, posting back-to-back Top 10 finishes and four Top 10s in his last six starts, including three Top 5s. The profile also fits Shinnecock well, with elite ball striking, strong driving numbers, and a short game that can handle a difficult test. The hesitation is whether the major résumé and putting consistency are enough to trust at this price. Kim has gained strokes across the board in each of his last two starts, but the putter remains the biggest question mark and the U.S. Open is a difficult place to rely on a first-time major contender. At 45/1, the recent form is tempting, and he could be a sneaky DFS option given how well his skill set matches the course. However, it’s difficult to ignore that much of the case is built around the last month of results rather than a proven major track record. The ceiling is there, but compared to some of the other names in this range, Kim feels more like a player to monitor than one I’m comfortable investing heavily in. -C
Brooks Koepka
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 75!! exclude SCR (139), ARD/SCR AVG (98), PUTT (104)
Rank: Top 75 exclude SCR; Top 25 exclude OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BA, P3, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: WD/14/55/11
USO Results: 12/26/17/55/4/2/1/1/13/18/4/MC
Shinnecock Results: 1 (75-66-72-68, 2018)
Comp Results: 2/65/MC
Insights: Brooks Koepka is always going to command attention at a U.S. Open, and especially at Shinnecock where he captured the 2018 championship in dominant fashion. His major résumé speaks for itself, with six wins and a ridiculous U.S. Open record that includes two victories, three additional Top 5 finishes, and another runner-up at this venue. The form was also trending in the right direction at the RBC Canadian Open before the weekend withdrawal, as Koepka climbed into contention after opening rounds where he consistently attacked the back nine. When healthy, this is exactly the type of setup where his ability to embrace difficult conditions and grind out pars makes him dangerous. The concern is obviously the wrist. After battling soreness last week and withdrawing before Sunday’s round, there are too many unanswered questions to comfortably invest at 25/1, especially with Shinnecock expected to feature thick rough and demand precision throughout the bag. From a DFS perspective, he remains one of the highest-ceiling players in the field, and it would be foolish to completely dismiss a player with his history in this championship. However, from a betting standpoint, it’s difficult to ignore the health uncertainty. The ultimate hat tip goes to Koepka — few players have owned the U.S. Open like he has — but this week I’d rather look toward a healthier player with a similar power-and-major profile like Chris Gotterup at a better number. -C
Hideki Matsuyama
Odds: +5000
Stats: Top 125 exclude OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, BS
Rank: Top 75 exclude OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, GIR, BS; Top 25: APP 175200, APP 200+, APP AVG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG
SG Gains: OTT 1/4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 43/13/26/71
USO Results: 42/6/32/4/26/17/21/16/2/MC/18/35/10
Shinnecock Results: 16 (75-70-79-66, 2018)
Comp Results: 7/15/30/WD
Insights: Hideki Matsuyama is always worth considering in a U.S. Open given his track record in this championship, but the current profile comes with one major concern. Matsuyama has been one of the most consistent U.S. Open performers of his generation, making the cut in 12 of 13 starts with a runner-up finish in 2017, a fourth-place finish in 2022, and multiple Top 20s. He also showed some upside at Shinnecock in 2018, gaining strokes across the board before a Sunday 66 vaulted him into a T16 finish. The approach play and short game remain elite, and at 50/1 the price is certainly appealing for a player with this kind of major pedigree. The issue is the driver, and it is difficult to overlook at a venue like Shinnecock. Matsuyama has lost strokes off the tee in four of his last five starts, with his only significant positive performance coming at the Valero Texas Open, and the lack of distance/control off the tee creates a difficult path to a Sunday run. The approach game can still spike — as we saw at Colonial — and the putter has shown some recent life after a rough stretch, but the margin for error is smaller without a reliable driving week. At 50/1, Matsuyama is a reasonable long-shot dart for those willing to trust the history, but personally the current form suggests more of a player to monitor than one I would expect to seriously contend unless the driver unexpectedly turns around. -C
Collin Morikawa
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude SCR (111), ARD/SCR AVG (79), PUTT (112)
Rank: Top 75 exclude PUTT; Top 25 exclude OTT, APP 200+, PROX, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 29/55/62/4
USO Results: 23/14/14/5/4/MC/35
Shinnecock Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 1/2
Insights: Collin Morikawa is one of the more difficult players to fully evaluate this week because the long-term U.S. Open profile is exactly what you want, but the current form creates plenty of hesitation. Since making his debut in 2019, Morikawa has made the cut in six of seven U.S. Open starts with four Top 20s and two Top 5 finishes, highlighted by his runner-up finish at the 2021 Concession and elite ball-striking pedigree that typically translates to demanding championship setups. At his best, few players in the world are better suited for a Shinnecock-style test where precision with the irons is paramount. The issue is that the recent numbers are trending in the wrong direction. Outside of his win at Pebble Beach and strong run earlier in the spring, Morikawa has posted three straight finishes outside the Top 25 while dealing with back issues that appear to have impacted both his driving and approach play. The putter has shown some improvement, but that has never been the foundation of his success. At 40/1, the number is certainly appealing for a two-time major champion, but the current profile makes it difficult to invest with confidence. This feels like a rare week where the course fit says “circle the name,” but the form says “wait and see.” Morikawa has the ceiling to contend if the ball striking returns, but right now he feels more like a fade candidate than a player I’m eager to back. -C
Patrick Reed
Odds: +5000
Stats: n/a
Rank: n/a
SG Gains: OTT 1/2, APP 2/2, ARD 2/2, PUTT 2/2 (No SG for Joburg or South Africa starts)
FORM: 10/12/10/29
USO Results: 23/56/49/19/13/32/4/13/MC/14/35
Shinnecock Results: 4 (73-72-71-68, 2018)
Comp Results: 9/23/34
Insights: Patrick Reed is one of the more intriguing long-shot names in the field because Shinnecock fits the exact type of test where he has historically thrived. Reed has never been the most consistent U.S. Open performer, but he owns a fourth-place finish at this venue in 2018, where he gained across the board and gained over 1.5 strokes on approach. His 2026 résumé is also stronger than many realize, with two wins, a runner-up finish, and multiple Top 10s in just eight starts. While the sample size is smaller due to his limited schedule, his two major appearances this year have been encouraging, finishing 10th and 12th while gaining strokes in nearly every category. The question is whether Reed can trust the game enough over four rounds, especially with limited recent data outside of the major championship spotlight. The around-the-green game will always be the calling card, and a demanding Shinnecock setup plays directly into one of his biggest strengths. At 50/1, I prefer the placement market over the outright, but a small sprinkle is understandable for a former Masters champion who has proven he can win on difficult courses. The vintage Reed we hoped to see after his early-season wins has not fully returned, but the combination of course fit, major experience, and recent major form makes “Captain America” one of the more interesting names to watch in New York. -C
Justin Rose
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 125 exclude PROX (140), SCR (133), P3 (143)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 200+, PROX, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB 175200, P3; Top 25: APP, GIR, BS
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, PUTT 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: MC/12/10/45
USO Results: MC/MC/MC/37/MC/MC/3/10/MC/MC/27/12/1/21/MC/MC/MC/10/MC/5
Shinnecock Results: 10/MC (71-70-73-73-77-78)
Comp Results: 8/54
Insights: Justin Rose is one of the more difficult players to completely dismiss at a U.S. Open given his history in this championship, but the current profile creates more questions than answers. Rose has done nearly everything possible at this event, from a Top 5 finish in his debut, to winning the 2013 U.S. Open, to nearly adding another title in 2019. He also showed the Shinnecock formula in 2018, gaining nearly two strokes on approach and over a stroke around the green on his way to a T10 finish. His current form has some positives as well, with elite approach play at the PGA Championship and strong driving numbers over his last few starts. The concern is whether the overall game is still consistent enough to justify 35/1. Outside of his win earlier this season and back-to-back Top 10 finishes at the Masters and PGA Championship, Rose’s recent U.S. Open history has been surprisingly poor with seven missed cuts in his last 10 starts. The putter has been volatile, the short game has been less reliable than usual, and the equipment changes after Augusta add another layer of uncertainty. There is no denying the pedigree or the ability to show up in major moments, but at this price there are too many younger, in-form players with similar course fits. Rose is always capable of proving doubters wrong, but for me this week feels more like a fade than a buy. -C
Xander Schauffele
Odds: +2000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude PROX (142), ARD (87), P3 (135)
Rank: Top 75 exclude PROX, P3; Top 25: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, BS, SCR, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, BA, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 29/7/60/12
USO Results: 12/7/10/14/7/5/3/6/5
Shinnecock Results: 6 (72-74-72-68, 2018)
Comp Results: 39
Insights: X-Man has one of the best US Open resumes in the sport, but he hasn’t won one. In fact, he’s played in 9 US Opens, finishing as high as 3rd and as low as just 14th — making his floor extremely high at this event, especially when you consider he finished 6th here in 2018. However, my issue with Xander is that he just does not put himself into contention on Sunday. Most of his Top 10s lately feel like backdoor Top 10s in which he either fades after a fast start or makes a “meaningless” charge up the leaderboard on Sunday after being irrelevant all weekend. It’s good to see him priced longer than guys like CY, but I still would want more meat on the bone if I’m backing Xander outright this week. A placement or DFS play makes the most sense. -S
J.J. Spaun
Odds: +6000
Stats: Top 100! exclude SCR (109), PUTT (150), BA (101)
Rank: Top 75 exclude PUTT; Top 25: TG, APP, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 12/6/MC/5
USO Results: 1/MC
Shinnecock Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 9/37/66/MC/MC
Insights: The defending US Open Champion looks to go back-to-back this year after an impressive win at Oakmont, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he did just that. After winning the Valero, he has missed the cut twice, and both of those MCs were at majors — which is mildly concerning this week. However, he has 5 Top 25 finishes to go with those 2 MCs in his last 7 events, including a T6 at Colonial and a T5 at Quail — two completely different types of courses. Not to mention, he’s gained strokes on Approach in every event since the Genesis, while he’s in the midst of a 5-event streak in which he’s gained strokes around the greens. In a price range similar to Spieth, who we will talk about next, it’s Spaun all day, every day and twice on Sunday. -S
Jordan Spieth
Odds: +6000
Stats: Top 125 exclude APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG; Top 25: SCR
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: MC/19/18/52
USO Results: 23/41/MC/37/19/MC/65/MC/35/37/1/17/MC/21
Shinnecock Results: MC (78-71, 2018)
Comp Results: N/A
Insights: This one will be short and sweet. Jordy comes into this event off a missed cut at the Memorial in which he lost over 4 strokes on Approach. As it stands, Spieth has yet to finish inside any Top 10 this year. Therefore, I’m crossing him off the list. Could he show up and win? Sure, but he should be longer than 60/1 all things considered. It’s something different every week for this guy — either bad irons, bad wedges, bad putter or errant tee shots….it’s just always something. I need to see it come together for a prolonged period of time before I risk more money on Spieth. -S
Justin Thomas
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 125 exclude GIR, APP 175200, PROX, BA
Rank: Top 75 exclude GIR, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BA, P4, P5; Top 25: ARD
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 19/13/4/13
USO Results: MC/MC/MC/37/19/8/MC/25/9/32/MC
Shinnecock Results: 25 (74-70-74-74, 2018)
Comp Results: 15/MC
Insights: Slowly but surely, JT is returning to form. After finishing nearly dead last at the Heritage, Thomas has churned out 5 straight Top 25 finishes, including a T4 at the PGA Championship. Oddly enough, he finished 25th at Shinnecock in 2018. That said, he’s missed the cut in 3 straight US Opens, so we have a classic analytical stalemate on our hands here. In situations like these, I tend to lean more towards the current form than the historical form, which means JT is on my radar this week. His putting worries me, but that’s also factored into his 40/1 price. Outside of putting, he’s gained OTT in 6 straight, on APP in 4 of the last 5 and ARG in 5 straight. You could do worse things with your money than bet JT 40/1 this week. -S
Cameron Young
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude PUTT (62), BOB 200+ (62), P5 (74)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude GIR, ARD, PUTT, BOB 200+, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 46/26/10/1
USO Results: 4/67/32/MC/MC/MC
Shinnecock Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 57/MC
Insights: Since winning in Miami, CY’s form has fallen off a bit, finishing 10th, 26th and 46th, respectively, at the Truist, PGA Championship and Memorial. His short game seems to be experiencing a slight hiccup, as he’s lost strokes around or on the greens in 2 of his last 3 events. That said, the ball-striking is still elite, as he’s failed to lose strokes with his irons since Pebble in mid-February. Given his iron prowess, he should be able to compete on this course, but I would be lying if I said the short game doesn’t worry me. Scrambling and three-putt avoidance are going to be big this week. If he’s getting up and down for Par while also minimizing 3-putt bogeys on the greens, CY will be near the top of the leaderboard come Sunday. That said, I would rather deploy in DFS than on my bet card this week. -S