2026 US Open - Player Deep Dives
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Legend:
Odds: Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Rank: Based on Field Rank
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
USO Results: Finishes at US Opens
Shinnecock Results: Finishes at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Oakdale Golf & Country Club, TPC Twin Cities & The Concession Golf Club
Rory McIlroy
Odds: +1000
Stats: n/a
Rank: n/a
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 12/7/19/1
USO Results: 19/2/2/5/7/8/9/MC/MC/MC/9/23/41/MC/1/MC/10
Shinnecock Results: MC (80-70, 2018)
Comp Results: 6/9
Insights: Rory’s season has understandably been viewed through the lens of the Masters victory, but it’s easy to overlook just how solid the overall major form has been. In his two majors this year he’s posted a win at Augusta and a T7 at the PGA, while his limited schedule since April has kept him relatively fresh heading into one of the biggest tests of the season. The ball striking remains exactly where you’d want it, gaining both Off-the-Tee and on Approach in each of his last four starts. The short game has been more of a mixed bag, with the putter producing a strong spike at the PGA Championship before settling back to field average at both the Masters and Memorial. When it comes to the U.S. Open, few players can match Rory’s recent consistency. Since missing the cut at Shinnecock in 2018, he’s rattled off seven consecutive U.S. Open finishes inside the Top 20, including six Top 10s and back-to-back runner-up finishes in 2023 and 2024. That’s an incredible level of consistency in a championship designed to expose every weakness in a player’s game. It’s also worth noting that this marks 15 years since his breakthrough U.S. Open victory at Congressional, and while that feels like a lifetime ago, his current form suggests another serious run is well within reach.Shinnecock should fit the strengths of his game far more than the result from 2018 would indicate. Elite driving, strong long-iron play, and the ability to handle difficult scoring conditions are all traits that have defined recent U.S. Open champions. Add in the fact that every U.S. Open winner since 2019 entered the week with a victory already that season, and Rory checks yet another historical box. The profile is easy to like, the major pedigree is unquestioned, and there are very few red flags entering the week. At 10/1 you’re paying for one of the most likely winners in the field, but it’s hard to argue he doesn’t have every tool needed to finally turn those recent near misses into another U.S. Open title. -C
Jon Rahm
Odds: +1400
Stats: n/a
Rank: n/a
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 2/16/2/8
USO Results: 7/10/12/1/23/3/MC/MC/23
Shinnecock Results: MC (78-77, 2018)
Comp Results: 32
Insights: Jon Rahm continues to put himself in contention almost every time he tees it up. In 11 starts this season, he’s posted nine Top 8s, eight Top 5s, seven finishes of runner-up or better, and two victories. The runner-up at the PGA Championship was another reminder that the game is still in elite shape, and he followed that with another second-place finish in Spain where the only thing holding him back was an opening-round 73. The ball-striking remains exactly where you’d expect, gaining Off-the-Tee in four straight starts and on Approach in three of his last four. His U.S. Open record may not jump off the page like Rory’s, but it’s quietly one of the strongest in the field. The 2021 champion has finished T12 or better in each of the last four U.S. Opens and owns six Top 12 finishes in nine career starts. The missed cut at Shinnecock in 2018 feels largely irrelevant given how much his game has matured since then. Add in the fact that every U.S. Open winner since 2019 had already won that season and Rahm checks yet another key trend box. At 14/1, you’re paying for one of the most complete profiles in the field, and it’s hard to find many reasons he won’t be in the mix again come Sunday. -C
Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +500
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 175200 (81), APP 200+ (85), PROX (128)
Rank: Top 75 exclude PROX; Top 25 exclude APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BOB 175200, P3
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 12/3/14/2
USO Results: 7/41/3/2/7/MC/27/MC
Shinnecock Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 5
Insights: Scottie Scheffler arrives at Shinnecock as the deserved favorite, even if the win column has been surprisingly quiet by his standards. Since winning his first start of the season, he’s gone 11 straight events without a victory, yet still owns 10 Top 20s, seven Top 10s, seven Top 5s, and six finishes of third or better in 12 starts. The ball striking remains elite, gaining both Off-the-Tee and on Approach in four straight starts, while the short game flashed back to peak form at Memorial with his best around-the-green performance in months. As always, the question isn’t whether Scottie will create chances—it’s whether the putter does enough to separate him from the field when the pressure mounts. His U.S. Open record suggests another serious run is coming. After a missed cut in his debut, Scheffler has posted finishes of 7th, 2nd, 3rd, 41st, and 7th over his last five appearances, proving he has both the consistency and ceiling required to contend in this championship. This marks the 15th consecutive major where he’s opened at single-digit odds, and every U.S. Open winner since 2019 entered the week with a victory already that season. Add in the possibility of moving one step closer to the career Grand Slam and celebrating his 30th birthday with a trophy on Sunday, and the storyline is easy to see. At 5/1 you’re paying a premium, but you’re also betting on the player with the highest floor in the field and arguably the highest ceiling if the putter cooperates. -C
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