2026 Truist Championship - Player Deep Dives
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Legend:
Odds - Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Rank: Based on Field Rank
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Quail Results: Finishes at Quail Hollow Golf Club (sorted by most recent)
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: The Los Angeles Country Club, Trump National Doral & Oakmont Country Club (sorted by Best Result)
Rory McIlroy
Odds: +600
Stats: N/A
Rank: N/A
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 1/46/WD/2
Quail Results: 47/1/47/1/8/16/22/4/1/8/10/2/MC/1
Comp Results: 2/3/3/8/9/10/19/20/25/65/MC
Insights: Hey Rory. Nice of you to join us! How was Ibiza after the Masters win? Champ kindly pointed out to me that Rory has played so few events this season that his stats aren’t even on the PGA’s website (as you can see in Monday’s newsletter under his models). Isn’t that crazy? I suppose you get to do whatever you want as a Masters winner, much less a back-to-back Masters winner. I digress. When you talk about horses for courses, Rory and Quail are always somewhere at the top of that list. He’s rattled off 4 wins on this course, 2 of which have come in his last 4 appearances here. That said, he didn’t play well here last year when the PGA Championship was in town, losing over 1.5 strokes on approach over the course of the entire weekend. That’s a bit concerning, especially considering his iron play wasn’t great at Sawgrass or Bay Hill earlier this season. However, this year’s set up at Quail should play a bit easier than it did last year for a major. Considering Rory’s elite course history, 6/1 feels right — maybe close to a bargain even? — in this watered down field, but is he going to come out with a killer mindset coming off another Masters win with a major on deck? We saw him fail to find purpose on Tour after last year’s Masters win, so I just don’t know what to make of his mentals or competitiveness ahead of this tournament. All to say, I prefer one-and-one or DFS for Rory over betting, but I realize I could look really stupid for saying that come this time next week. -S
Xander Schauffele
Odds: +1150
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude PROX (105), ARD (83), P3 (105)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude GIR, PROX, ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 200+, P3
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 12/9/4/3
Quail Results: 28/2/2/14/72/MC
Comp Results: 10/12
Insights: Xander is one of the best golfers in the world — top 10 for sure — but is he a winner? We’ve seen glimpses in 2024 and in 2022, but we’ve yet to see it in 2026. So the question remains: does he have that killer instinct to go out and dominate for 4 days to beat his peers at the top of the world rankings? I want to say yes because I consider myself to be a pretty big Xander fan, but I genuinely haven’t seen it since the return from his injury outside of a hit-and-giggle at the Baycurrent in the fall. Even then, he shot a 71 in Round 1 before a 63 in Round 2 corrected those Thursday mistakes. Sure, his string of 4 straight top-12 finishes is nice, but was he actually a threat to win in any of those? Plus, his short game at Harbour Town and Augusta left much to be desired. I’m not trying to pile onto Xander, again I really like the guy, but you see my point. His course history a Quail is pretty good all things considered, but the same theme applies — a pair of solo 2nds in 23 and 24 look very good on the surface, but Xander bled out after the first round in both years — Wyndham ended up beating him by 3 strokes over the weekend while Rory beat him by 9. TLDR: I want to believe Xander is live, but I haven’t seen evidence that he can actually win a golf tournament with an above average field right now, making the price absolutely unbettable. Placements/DFS/OAD, but no outright bet for me here (hat tip, as Champ would say). -S
Cameron Young
Odds: +950
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude BOB 200+ (75), P5 (74)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude DD, ARD, BOB 200+, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 1/25/3/1
Quail Results: 47/34/59
Comp Results: 1/4/32
Insights: CY enters this week, in his best Vince McMahon strut, as one of the hottest players in the world, and it finally looks like the full profile has caught up to the talent. After a slow start with the irons to open 2026, he’s completely flipped that script—now gaining OTT, APP, and ARG in 4 straight, with the putter cooperating in 3 of 4. The recent run is elite: 1-25-3-1-3-7 in his last six, including the battle at Augusta. This is the version of Young the clubhouse expected, and now it’s here. From a fit standpoint, Quail Hollow Club should suit him perfectly—length, long irons, and demanding tee-to-green play all play into his strengths. Add in the comfort factor of North Carolina (Wake Forest ties + Wyndham win nearby), and there’s a lot to like. The biggest hesitation is course history, specifically approach play at Quail, which has lagged behind his baseline and explains the lack of results (47/34/59). That’s the one box he has to check to win here. At this point, it’s less about “if” and more about “when” he pops again. At sub 10/1, the market fully respects the form. This mirrors the Fitzpatrick Zurich spot—all gas, no brakes. -C
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