Legend:
Odds - Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Rank: Based on Field Rank
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Quail Results: Finishes at Quail Hollow Golf Club (sorted by most recent)
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: The Los Angeles Country Club, Trump National Doral & Oakmont Country Club (sorted by Best Result)
Rory McIlroy
Odds: +600
Stats: N/A
Rank: N/A
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 1/46/WD/2
Quail Results: 47/1/47/1/8/16/22/4/1/8/10/2/MC/1
Comp Results: 2/3/3/8/9/10/19/20/25/65/MC
Insights: Hey Rory. Nice of you to join us! How was Ibiza after the Masters win? Champ kindly pointed out to me that Rory has played so few events this season that his stats aren’t even on the PGA’s website (as you can see in Monday’s newsletter under his models). Isn’t that crazy? I suppose you get to do whatever you want as a Masters winner, much less a back-to-back Masters winner. I digress. When you talk about horses for courses, Rory and Quail are always somewhere at the top of that list. He’s rattled off 4 wins on this course, 2 of which have come in his last 4 appearances here. That said, he didn’t play well here last year when the PGA Championship was in town, losing over 1.5 strokes on approach over the course of the entire weekend. That’s a bit concerning, especially considering his iron play wasn’t great at Sawgrass or Bay Hill earlier this season. However, this year’s set up at Quail should play a bit easier than it did last year for a major. Considering Rory’s elite course history, 6/1 feels right — maybe close to a bargain even? — in this watered down field, but is he going to come out with a killer mindset coming off another Masters win with a major on deck? We saw him fail to find purpose on Tour after last year’s Masters win, so I just don’t know what to make of his mentals or competitiveness ahead of this tournament. All to say, I prefer one-and-one or DFS for Rory over betting, but I realize I could look really stupid for saying that come this time next week. -S
Xander Schauffele
Odds: +1150
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude PROX (105), ARD (83), P3 (105)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude GIR, PROX, ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 200+, P3
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 12/9/4/3
Quail Results: 28/2/2/14/72/MC
Comp Results: 10/12
Insights: Xander is one of the best golfers in the world — top 10 for sure — but is he a winner? We’ve seen glimpses in 2024 and in 2022, but we’ve yet to see it in 2026. So the question remains: does he have that killer instinct to go out and dominate for 4 days to beat his peers at the top of the world rankings? I want to say yes because I consider myself to be a pretty big Xander fan, but I genuinely haven’t seen it since the return from his injury outside of a hit-and-giggle at the Baycurrent in the fall. Even then, he shot a 71 in Round 1 before a 63 in Round 2 corrected those Thursday mistakes. Sure, his string of 4 straight top-12 finishes is nice, but was he actually a threat to win in any of those? Plus, his short game at Harbour Town and Augusta left much to be desired. I’m not trying to pile onto Xander, again I really like the guy, but you see my point. His course history a Quail is pretty good all things considered, but the same theme applies — a pair of solo 2nds in 23 and 24 look very good on the surface, but Xander bled out after the first round in both years — Wyndham ended up beating him by 3 strokes over the weekend while Rory beat him by 9. TLDR: I want to believe Xander is live, but I haven’t seen evidence that he can actually win a golf tournament with an above average field right now, making the price absolutely unbettable. Placements/DFS/OAD, but no outright bet for me here (hat tip, as Champ would say). -S
Cameron Young
Odds: +950
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude BOB 200+ (75), P5 (74)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude DD, ARD, BOB 200+, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 1/25/3/1
Quail Results: 47/34/59
Comp Results: 1/4/32
Insights: CY enters this week, in his best Vince McMahon strut, as one of the hottest players in the world, and it finally looks like the full profile has caught up to the talent. After a slow start with the irons to open 2026, he’s completely flipped that script—now gaining OTT, APP, and ARG in 4 straight, with the putter cooperating in 3 of 4. The recent run is elite: 1-25-3-1-3-7 in his last six, including the battle at Augusta. This is the version of Young the clubhouse expected, and now it’s here. From a fit standpoint, Quail Hollow Club should suit him perfectly—length, long irons, and demanding tee-to-green play all play into his strengths. Add in the comfort factor of North Carolina (Wake Forest ties + Wyndham win nearby), and there’s a lot to like. The biggest hesitation is course history, specifically approach play at Quail, which has lagged behind his baseline and explains the lack of results (47/34/59). That’s the one box he has to check to win here. At this point, it’s less about “if” and more about “when” he pops again. At sub 10/1, the market fully respects the form. This mirrors the Fitzpatrick Zurich spot—all gas, no brakes. -C
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More Player Deep Dives below for Bettor Clubhouse Subscribers including Ludvig Aberg, Matt Fitzpatrick, Rickie Fowler, Si Woo Kim and Adam Scott!
Ludvig Aberg
Odds: +1750
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP 175200 (108), SCR (95), ARD/SCR AVG (55), BA (51)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 175200; Top 25 exclude APP 175200, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 4/21/5/5
Quail Results: MC (70-75, 2025 PGA Champ)
Comp Results: MC
Insights: The Swede is one of the first names that popped into my head this week. Unfortunately, I’m not sure if that’s a good or a bad thing, as I fear Ludvig suffers from a bit of Xander Syndrome himself. His finishes look good on paper, but how often does he put 4 good rounds together to really be in contention on Sundays? It’s not often. Something always seems to go wrong over the weekend in these big events, but we have to remember, he’s still pretty young at just 26 years old. He has plenty of raw talent to win these events, and all it takes is one to get on a roll in this sport. Last year’s missed cut at the PGA was Ludvig’s first visit to Quail Hollow. His first round was fine at -1, but a +4 on Friday with -5 strokes gained T2G sealed his fate and sent him packing early. There is no cut this week, which is good for Ludvig considering his best finishes this season have come in no-cut/small-cut events. The game is absolutely trending right now, as the Swede has gained strokes off-the-tee in 5 of his last 6, while the irons have been pretty solid gainers in 5-of-6 as well. Even his putter and around-the-green play have been substantial positives in most events this year, so all around, Aberg has been playing very well despite not being in contention very often on Sundays. Could that change this week? I could very well see it, and given the price compared to his peers at the top of the odds board, I wouldn’t mind betting it — even with a lack of course history. -S
Matt Fitzpatrick
Odds: +1700
Stats: Top 25!!!! exclude DD (51), OTT/DD AVG (31), APP 175200 (45), APP 200+ (32), PUTT (72), BOB 175200 (39)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude DD, APP 175200, PUTT, BOB 175200
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 1/1/18/1
Quail Results: 8/52/35/MC
Comp Results: 17/35/38/54
Insights: Fitzmagic is as dialed as anyone in the field—1st T2G, 4th APP, 1st Ball Striking, and gaining across the board in 4 of his last 5 starts. The form speaks loud enough: 3 wins in last 4 (and easily could’ve been 4 of 5). The only minor question is the putter, but even that’s been positive in 6 of 10 this season—so not a real concern. At Quail, the history is fine but not dominant—highlighted by a top 10 at last year’s PGA where he spiked on approach. Off the tee has been field average here, but he’s consistently made up for it with the short game and putter. The gap? Approach consistency at Quail—only one real spike. Feels like a spot where his elite form keeps him in the mix, but this leans slightly preparation > peak with next week’s PGA Champ looming. Still, if the irons travel (like they have been), he’s firmly in the conversation. -C
Tommy Fleetwood
Odds: +2400
Stats: Top 100! exclude DD (111), PROX (117)
Rank: Top 75 exclude DD, PROX; Top 25: TG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB 200+, BA, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 23/52/33/10
Quail Results: 41/13/5/14/MC/61
Comp Results: 5/23/71/MC
Insights: Tommy comes in as a bit of a mixed bag. Off the tee has been steady (gained in 4 straight), but the irons have cooled—losing in back-to-back since THE PLAYERS—while the putter has quietly stabilized with 3 straight gains after a rough stretch. That balance is why he’s likely flying under the radar this week. At Quail, there’s more to like than people realize—gained on approach in 5 of 6 starts, plus consistent off the tee and around the green success. The 5th-place finish in 2023 showed the ceiling when it all clicks. This feels like a classic sneaky DFS play—course fit is there, but current form doesn’t fully justify the price. If the irons bounce back, a top 10 is in play. If not, you’re likely getting another mid-tier finish. Upside exists… but at +2400, it’s more watch than bet. -C
Rickie Fowler
Odds: +3700
Stats: Top 75!! exclude DD (92), APP 200+ (79), ARD (119), BOB 175200 (76)
Rank: Top 75 exclude ARD; Top 25: APP 175200, PROX, SCR, PUTT, BA, P3, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 9/8/MC/MC
Quail Results: MC/43/14/MC/4/21/5/4/38/73/1/16/6
Comp Results: 5/8/8/9/12/35/44/45/MC
Insights: If I were too give you a list of names that could pop out of no where and contend this week, Rickie would be on there thanks to his illustrious course history and back-to-back top-10 finishes coming into this event. That said, even in a watered down field for a signature event, I was hoping to get a better price on someone that has won just once on Tour in the last 7 years. Let’s be real — while the course history is good overall, he hasn’t finished in the top 10 here since 2019. His last 4 starts in Charlotte: MC, 43, 14, MC. Why are his odds richer than someone like JJ Spaun, Sepp Straka, or even Kurt Kitayama at this point? I don’t get it. Placements, DFS or maybe even FRL bet for Rickie unless we can somehow get a 50/1 on the outright. -S
Si Woo Kim
Odds: +2700
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude DD (122), OTT/DD AVG (67), PUTT (120)
Rank: Top 75 exclude DD, PUTT; Top 25 exclude DD, OTT/DD AVG, APP 200+, SCR, PUTT, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 4/3/47/10
Quail Results: 8/16/43/WD/MC
Comp Results: 4/39/42
Insights: It’s been quite the year for Iron Man, who will be playing his 13th event of the season this week in Charlotte. Coming off back-to-back top-5 finishes at Doral and Harbour Town, SWK now has 4 top-5 results this season, as well as 2 more top 10s and another 2 top 15s. He was very much a threat to win multiple events this year, but the flat stick let him down each and every time — as it typically does for Si Woo. In fact, he’s lost strokes on the greens in 8 of his 12 events this year. HOWEVER, 3 of his 4 positive putting results came at Sawgrass, TPC San Antonio and Harbour Town, all of which have similar Poa Travailis greens with dormant Bermuda overseed that has yet to grow in completely. If it’s a good putting week for SWK, I don’t think we’ll notice his lack of carry distance off-the-tee. He’s going to find most fairways, and with great long irons, he should find plenty of birdie opportunities — it’s just a matter of converting those with the putter. I don’t mind an outright on Iron Man this week, but just know, his next 7th or better on this course will be his best result here of his career. Placement and DFS feel “safer.” -S
Min Woo Lee
Odds: +4500
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP (62), GIR (82), APP 200+ (63), APP AVG (53)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude APP, GIR, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS, PUTT
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 18/60/MC/3
Quail Results: MC
Comp Results: 5/18/MC
Insights: MWL is the definition of volatility—with real ceiling. The irons will never be perfectly consistent, but that’s baked into the number. When it clicks, he can spike and contend. Recent form shows the swings: losses on approach and putting in 2 of last 3, but longer-term trends still solid with gains in most measured starts across the board. The bigger flag is off the tee—just field average last week when you have to expect more, and that’s a concern heading into this week, where length and control matter. The short game has been solid, which keeps the upside intact if the ball-striking cooperates. Only one look here (missed cut), and it was messy—lost heavily on approach and the greens—but that came during a weird form stretch. At +4500, you’re buying the spike week, not consistency. Plenty of talent, plenty of risk—if you have a strong read let me know in the comments. I never seem to get the read right with this chef. -C
Adam Scott
Odds: +3300
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude ARD (78), ARD/SCR AVG (63), PUTT (95), P4 (72)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: TG, DD, APP, GIR, APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB 175200, BA, P3, P5
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 0/4
FORM: 4/24/21/56
Quail Results: 19/29/5/76/61/17/MC/MC/MC/8/24/3/16
Comp Results: 1/3/4/4/6/9/12/13/18/25/50/61/66/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Adam is quietly sitting on one of the best tee-to-green profiles in the field—top 5 T2G, #1 in Approach, top 5 GIR, and elite across every key iron bucket. He’s gaining on approach in 5 of his last 6, including nearly +2 strokes last week. That’s not good—that’s prime. The question is simple: can the putter be field average? He’s lost in 4 straight, but there are signs—recent work with Trevor Immelman and flashes suggest it’s not broken, just waiting. And at Quail, he’s actually gained on the greens in 4 straight appearances, flipping what used to be a weakness here. Off the tee has been muted lately, but that’s largely Florida noise—his non-Florida baseline is still strong, and Quail sets up far better for his eye. Add in elite Par 3 & Par 5 scoring with strong bogey avoidance, and the scoring profile is a box to check. This is the bet: elite irons + neutral putter = contention. We’ve already seen the flashes (low rounds, Sunday push last week), and now the numbers are screaming the same thing. Call it experience. Call it timing. Call it blind faith if you want. I’m calling it, we roll with the Aussie again this week. -C