Legend:
Odds: Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Top 75% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 75% in the Field
Top 25% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 25% in the Field
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Travelers Results: Finishes at the Travelers Championship
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Sedgefield Country Club, East Lake Golf Club & TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm
Tommy Fleetwood
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 75!! exclude GIR (83), PROX (94), BOB 125150 (109), BOB 150175 (118)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude BOB 125150, BOB 150175
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP 125150, APP 200+, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB 200+, BA, P3, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 11/11/4/MC
Travelers Results: 2/15/MC/46/13
Comp Results: 1/6/11/16/20/59/65
Insights: Tommy Lad feels like one of the safest plays in the field and one of the toughest outright bets to make. The fit is obvious—elite OTT consistency, a putter that’s been warmer lately, and a Travelers résumé highlighted by last year’s runner-up finish where he came painfully close to finally breaking through. Add in eight finishes of 11th or better this season and a strong history of playing well after majors, and it’s easy to see the appeal. The concern is the price. You’re now getting one of the shortest numbers we’ve seen on Tommy all season despite the fact he still owns just one PGA Tour victory. The US Open result was solid, but he never truly threatened and the approach play remains more inconsistent than the overall finishes suggest. At +1600, the course fit and form are undeniable, but the market knows it too. Feels more like a DFS, placement, and One-and-Done play than an outright target for me this week. -C
Xander Schauffele
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 100! exclude PROX (144), BOB 125150 (105), BOB 150175 (138), P3 (120)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude PROX, BOB 150175, P3
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, GIR, APP 200+, BS, SCR, BOB 200+, BA, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 11/29/7/60
Travelers Results: 61/13/19/1/20/MC/14
Comp Results: 1/2/2/2/4/4/5/7/35
Insights: A previous major champion as well as a previous winner on this course, Xander obviously has the game to win here. However, like I’ve said repeatedly on these deep dives this year, I haven’t seen the extra winning gear from him this season. Sure, he has an extremely high floor, but he’s struggling to find ceiling performances since his fall-swing win a the Baycurrent, and like a few other notable golfers, he seems to suffer from a blowup round more often than not in these bigger events. Because of that, I just can’t bet him below 20/1, but I do like Xander and want to see him succeed, so let’s put him in Champ’s “hat tip” category this week. For what it’s worth, Top 10 placement is a market I would be interested in, and I would take Xander in a tournament matchup over Aberg or Clark this week, if you’re looking for something in those types of markets. -S
Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +400
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP 125150 (61), APP 200+ (63) PROX (119), BOB 125150 (99)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Stats
Top 25% Rank: All exclude APP 125150, APP 150175, APP 200+, PROX, BOB 125150
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 4/12/3/14
Travelers Results: 6/1/4/13/47/MC
Comp Results: 1/2/4/5/6/22
Insights: Scottie Scheffler enters the Travelers as the clear man to beat, and unlike some weeks where the price feels impossible to stomach, +400 actually feels fair. The US Open result may not jump off the page, but the ball-striking was once again elite and the putting wasn’t nearly as bad as the narrative suggested. He gained strokes on the greens for the week, lipped out several good looks, and continued the proximity improvements that have been one of the biggest developments in his game this season. TPC River Highlands has also been one of his best stops on Tour with finishes of 4th, 1st, and 6th over the last three years, and he’s been inside the top 10 after Round 1 in each of those starts. The setup allows him to lean into what he does best—elite driving, elite iron play, and relentless birdie opportunities. In fact, among players in this field, only Brian Harman has played this course to a better cumulative score than Scottie over the last five years. At +400, you’re obviously paying a premium, but this feels more like a “when” than an “if” spot. The motivation should be there after falling short at Oakmont, the course history is elite, and few players rebound from major disappointment better than Scottie. If you’re building an outright card this week, starting with Scheffler and pairing him with a mid-range or longshot makes a lot of sense. This has all the ingredients of another signature-event Sunday where Scottie is the one everyone is chasing. -C
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Additional Player Deep Dives available for Bettor Clubhouse Subscribers including Ludvig Aberg, Keegan Bradley, Sam Burns, Wyndham Clark, Matt Fitzpatrick, Russell Henley and Collin Morikawa!
Ludvig Aberg
Odds: +1800
Stats: Top 75!! exclude SCR (98), BOB 150175 (94)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Stats
Top 25% Rank: All exclude APP 125150, APP 150175, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB 125150, BOB 150175, BA
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 17/39/17/4
Travelers Results: 36/27/24
Comp Results: 14/16/21
Insights: Ludvig Aberg is the PGA Tour’s most mysterious man — all the talent in the world and now plenty of experience under his belt, but not winning at quite the clip that was expected of him coming out of Lubbock. Coming off a T17 at the US Open, Ludvig gained in all major SG categories, but as usual, he had a blowup round (Saturday) and never really made any noise because of it. That’s the Swede’s MO at this point — a few good rounds and a round that really takes him out of contention. Anyway, I look to back Aberg when the Driver (distance OTT) is going to be an asset for him, but that’s not the case this week. TPC River Highlands is more of an accuracy course than a distance course, with an emphasis on 2nd shots and a reliance on putting to achieve low scores. Coming into this event, Ludvig is outside the top 40 in the field in driving accuracy over his last 24 rounds, and while he’s been solid on Approach for a majority of the year, his GIR success comes and goes. When he misses greens, he’s not all that reliable around them, and his putter can go ice cold like it has in his last 2 trips to this course. Considering he’s finished no better than T24 here (3 appearances) despite all his talent, betting Swede at anything shorter than 20/1 isn’t doing your bankroll any favors at this point. -S
Keegan Bradley
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 125 exclude BA, P4
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP, GIR, APP 150175, BOB, BOB 125150, BA, P4
Top 25% Rank: TD
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 32/19/35/MC
Travelers Results: 1/39/1/19/MC/MC/2/47/8/25/39/31/18/29/63
Comp Results: 2/5/7/9/11/12/21/22/23/26/42/46/MC
Insights: Keegs makes the deep dives almost by default this week with two wins at TPC River Highlands in the last three years. The local ties are well documented, and few players in the field have a better track record of elevating their game here. The form is quietly improving as well. Approach play has been trending in the right direction over his last few starts, the putter has shown signs of life, and he flashed strong OTT numbers at Oakmont. It doesn’t feel like peak Keegan, but it does feel like a profile capable of another solid week in a place where he’s comfortable. At +4000, I’d rather target FRL, matchups, and DFS than an outright. Far from a fade, but more of a secondary contender than a player I’m building my card around this week. -C
Sam Burns
Odds: +2000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 150175 (101), ARD (96), ARD/SCR AVG (84), P3 (76)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 150175
Top 25% Rank: GIR, APP 200+, PROX, BS, PUTT, BOB, BOB 125150, BOB 150175, BOB AVG, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 2/20/4/26
Travelers Results: 17/55/MC/13/24/43
Comp Results: 7/9/12/13/14/18/24
Insights: Sam Burns enters the Travelers off another heartbreaking near miss, and the biggest question this week may be mental rather than statistical. The form is undeniable—runner-up at the U.S. Open, a playoff loss at Memorial, and gains in all four SG categories over his last four starts. Few players arrive with a hotter all-around profile. The concern is whether three straight weeks of contention, including Sunday’s emotional finish, finally catches up with him. Course history doesn’t offer much comfort either, with no top-10 finishes in six Travelers appearances despite several strong seasons. At +2000, not the worst number but hard to see many rushing to back him. The talent and form are absolutely there, but this feels more like a DFS and placement week than an outright week for me. I’ll be rooting for Sam, but staying on the sidelines and waiting for a better spot to buy back in. -C
Wyndham Clark
Odds: +2200
Stats: Top 75!! exclude OTT (87), APP 125150 (122), BOB 125150 (145)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 125150, BOB 125150
Top 25% Rank: TG, APP, APP 150175, APP 200+, APP AVG, ARD, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P3, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 1/11/3/1
Travelers Results: 17/9/29/35/MC/MC/15/MC
Comp Results: 3/8/51/MDF/MC/MC
Insights: The US Open Champion hasn’t withdrawn as of Tuesday morning, so we’re going to proceed as if he’s playing — though it wouldn’t surprise me if he ended up as a WD later today or tomorrow morning. That said, if he does play, I wouldn’t touch him with a 10 foot pole. First, expect a hangover. The whole word was against him last weekend and prevailing in those conditions had to do a number to him emotionally and maybe even physically. Second, because of that win, there is absolutely no value in betting his number. We’re talking about a guy that’s been longer than 40/1 most weeks. Lastly, as I mentioned with Aberg, this is a driving accuracy course more than it is a distance course, and Wyndham is outside the top 45 of this field in that metric over his last 24 rounds. Not to mention, he’s outside the top 50 in Strokes Gained: Easy Courses in his last 24 rounds on those conditions. Needless to say, I don’t see a back-to-back for Clark this week. -S
Matt Fitzpatrick
Odds: +1800
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP 150175 (51), PUTT (95), BOB 125150 (79), BOB 150175 (52)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Stats
Top 25% Rank: All exclude OTT, APP 125150, APP 150175, PUTT, BOB, BOB 125150, BOB 150175
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 22/2/36/14
Travelers Results: 17/36/49/MC
Comp Results: 2/8/9/15/36
Insights: Fitzy is becoming one of the tougher players to figure out because the approach play is arguably the best it’s been all season, but the driver is trending the opposite direction. He briefly popped near the top of the board at the U.S. Open before the inconsistent OTT play eventually caught up with him, and that’s now something worth monitoring after several starts of declining driving numbers. The good news is the irons continue to trend up, gaining in four straight starts, while the putter has been serviceable enough to support another run if the driver cooperates. The bad news is TPC River Highlands can punish loose driving, and Fitzpatrick has yet to record a top-15 finish in four Travelers appearances.vAt +1800, the elite approach play makes him difficult to fully fade the Fitzmagic, but the combination of questionable OTT form, a fourth straight start, and limited course success keeps me from buying in. Feels like a wait-and-see week rather than a betting week. -C
Russell Henley
Odds: +2800
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 200+ (147), BOB 125150 (77), BOB 200+ (131)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 200+, BOB 200+
Top 25% Rank: APP 150175, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 65/22/1/MC
Travelers Results: 2/48/19/19/32/MC/6/11
Comp Results: 2/2/3/4/5/7/9/12/14/31/41/46/46/MC
Insights: When you hear a course is short with a focus on accuracy, iron play and clutch putting, you should immediately think of Russell Henley. Sure, his US Open wasn’t great, but he just won at Colonial at the end of May and has repeated success at multiple short courses — one of which being this very course. In fact, Henley finished T2 here last year, gaining strokes in each major category in the process. It was his best finish on this course in 8 starts, but he has 2 Top 12s, 2 Top 20s and just 1 missed cut in addition to that T2. If you can ignore his recent struggles around the green (significant losses in his last 3 events, including the win at Colonial), then the Russ Bus makes a lot of sense at this number when there are 4 guaranteed rounds. For what it’s worth, Russ has never lost strokes on APP at this course, has only lost strokes OTT twice, and has been a significant gainer T2G in all but his worst 2 finishes here since 2016 (MC 2019, T48 2024). I advise deploying Russ in all formats this week — outright, placements, DFS, One-and-Done. -S
Collin Morikawa
Odds: +2800
Stats: Top 100! exclude SCR (127), BOB 125150 (116)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude SCR, BOB125150
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP, GIR, BS, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 17/29/55/62
Travelers Results: 42/13/MC/MC/36
Comp Results: 2/6/6/19/21/26/31
Insights: Collin is elite when it comes to accuracy and iron play, which is ideal at TPC RH. However, the course history suggests this track actually does not meet his eye. He’s played here 5 times and finished inside the top 20 just once, missing the cut twice. Furthermore, he’s lost strokes on approach in 3 of his last 4 trips here, including last year when he lost nearly 3.5 strokes with his irons — in addition to the -2.6ish strokes lost in his short game. Obviously, health is a huge concern for Morikawa since his WD at the players, but I’m not AS worried about that anymore after consecutive top 30 finishes. The price is certainly inviting, as the health and course history are seemingly factored in here. Maybe if I can find 30/1 or better, I will make a move. Check out Wednesday’s newsletter for final bets. -S