Legend:
Odds: Betting Odds as of 10:30 EST on Monday, August 24th at Bovada
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Top 75% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 75% in the Field
Top 25% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 25% in the Field
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Tour Champ Results: Finishes at the Tour Championship
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Muirfield Village Golf Club, TPC River Highlands & Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge
Ludvig Aberg
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 175200 (130), SCR (102), BOB 175200 (80)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 175200, SCR
Top 25% Rank: TD, OTT/TD AVG, GIR, APP 200+, PROX, BS, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P5, LR2
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 16/7/9/MC
Tour Champ Results: 21/16 (5 of 8 Rds in 60s; Low: 66)
Comp Results: 3/5/16/22/24/24/25/27/36/39/55
Insights: Sweeedd arrives at East Lake with a profile that still looks dangerous on paper, but I’m struggling to find enough recent evidence to justify the +1600 price. He’s elite in several of the categories that matter this week, ranking 1st in the field in Approach from 200+ yards, 4th in Proximity, 5th in GIR and Birdie or Better, 6th in Total Driving and 9th in Tee to Green. The problem is that the individual pieces haven’t come together at the same time. His approach play has continued to decline since the beginning of July, while last week’s loss Off the Tee was only his second of the season. He did bounce back on the greens at the BMW after losing strokes in his Tour Championship debut, but now we’re waiting for the irons to provide that same spike. East Lake hasn’t exactly been kind to Åberg either. He opened with a T8 last year before sliding backward each round, including losing more than two strokes on Sunday to finish T16. He did gain Off the Tee at East Lake and has shown the ability to contend on similar setups, with a 3rd at the API this year and a T5 at Muirfield Village two years ago, but for a player whose biggest weapons are supposed to be driving and long irons, the recent ceiling simply hasn’t been there. Even with gains across the board at the Open and St. Jude, those performances only produced T7 and T9 finishes. With every player starting at even par and several names entering in better form, I see Åberg starting at a disadvantage this week. I’ll have some interest in round matchups, but at +1600 I’m happy to let others bet on a ceiling we haven’t seen in more than three months.
Wyndham Clark
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 75!! exclude OTT (88), OTT/TD AVG (78), GIR (85)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, GIR, BS
Top 25% Rank: ARD, PUTT, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P3, LR1, LR3
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 1/5/MC/MC
Tour Champ Results: 8/3 (8 of 8 Rds in 60s; Low: 65)
Comp Results: 2/3/5/9/12/15/17/22/29/34/35/37/56/68/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Hotels comes into East Lake with as much momentum as anyone in the field after winning the BMW Championship last week, his third victory in his last 10 starts. What was once a quiet season has completely changed with 8 top-15s, 6 top-5s and wins at the Byron Nelson, U.S. Open and BMW Championship. He showed exactly what makes him dangerous at Bellerive as well, grinding through a difficult Sunday before closing with three straight birdies to win by three. With a win this week, Clark would control his own destiny in the FedExCup and add another major piece to an already incredible turnaround. East Lake has also treated him well. Clark gained across the board in both previous appearances, including above-average approach play each time and positive Off the Tee numbers. He finished 2nd after the opening round and sat T4 at the halfway point in his 2024 appearance, while his 2023 debut included the 3rd-best round of the day on Sunday. The course history, recent form and comp results all line up, with a runner-up at the API, 3rd at Muirfield Village and a top-five at the Travelers. At +1600, Clark enters this week without having to prove anything—he’s already shown he can beat the best players in the world when the stakes are highest.
Rory McIlroy
Odds: +900
Stats: Top 75!! exclude PROX (93), SCR (77), P5 (80), LR1 (83), LR3 (142)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude TD, PROX, P5, LR1, LR3
Top 25% Rank: OTT, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, LR2
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 3/66/40/7
Tour Champ Results: 23/9/4/1/14/8/1/7/1/16/2/10 (34 of 48 Rds in 60s; Low: 63; FRL: 2020)
Comp Results: 1/2/4/4/5/5/6/6/7/7/8/10/10/11/11/12/13/15/15/17/18/18/19/21/27/32/57/WD
Insights: Rory heads back to East Lake as arguably the most comfortable player in the field at this venue, and last week’s BMW Championship only reinforced the idea that his game is rounding into form at the right time. After looking like he was playing second fiddle to Wyndham Clark for most of Sunday, Rory found something late, going 3-under over a four-hole stretch to tie the lead with seven holes remaining. He had opportunities to take control from there, but the putter never quite cooperated. Still, a 3rd-place finish against this field was another positive step after using the St. Jude Championship to knock off some rust. With just 13 starts this season, a second win of the year and a fourth Tour Championship would be a fitting way to cap the schedule. And then there’s East Lake. Rory has 48 rounds here, three wins, a runner-up and an absurd amount of low-round upside. He’s shot 65 or better five times, including a 64 in the opening round in 2020, a 63 in the third round in 2022 and a 64 in the final round of his 2016 victory. He’s also posted 11 of 12 opening rounds in the 60s, nine of 12 in the second round and seven of his last nine fourth rounds in the 60s. The recent concern is around-the-green play and last year’s putting, but historically those have been far from enough to keep him from dominating this course. Add in his elite driving, 2023 runner-up at the BMW and a win at Bay Hill in 2018, and there are plenty of reasons to believe another fast start is coming. At +900, I’m expecting Rory to be a major factor again this week and wouldn’t be surprised to see him put himself in position to chase another East Lake victory.
Xander Schauffele
Odds: +1400
Stats: Top 100! exclude PROX (130), P3 (111), LR3 (128)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude PROX, BOB, P3, LR3
Top 25% Rank: OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, BS, SCR, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 26/7/2/18
Tour Champ Results: 4/2/4/5/2/2/7/1 (27 of 32 Rds in 60s; Low: 62; FRL: 2019)
Comp Results: 1/8/11/13/13/14/14/14/18/19/20/24/24/24/25/25/29/39/40/51/61/MC/MC
Insights: Xander comes into East Lake with a profile that is still extremely strong from tee to green, but the short game continues to be the deciding factor. He’s gained Off the Tee in four straight and Approach in four straight, with the latter two weeks still above average even after the spike at the Rocket Mortgage where he finished runner-up. The concern is everything around those two areas, with losses Around the Green in two straight and putting losses in four of his last six, including last week at the BMW. That’s kept him from putting together four complete rounds despite showing plenty of upside, including three straight Sundays of 69 or better and a 65 at the St. Jude. East Lake is where the confidence comes from. Schauffele has been elite here throughout his career, gaining in every start and posting eight finishes of 7th or better, including a win in 2017. He’s gained on Approach and Off the Tee repeatedly at this course, with 84% of his 32 rounds in the 60s and eight rounds of 65 or better, including a 62 on Sunday. His Round 1 history is particularly strong with seven of eight opening rounds in the 60s, while he has posted five straight sub-70 Sundays. The starting-strokes format has arguably worked against him at times so, everyone on level ground has him circled with interest. At +1400, I’m more interested in short-term exposure through Round Matchups, First Round Leader Market and Daily Fantasy while watching the short game before getting involved on the outright.
Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +320
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP 175200 (80), APP 200+ (53), PROX (72), BOB 175200 (89)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: All exclude APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, LR1
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 12/1/2/4
Tour Champ Results: 4/1/6/2/22/5 (17 of 24 Rds in 60s; Low: 63; FRL: 2024)
Comp Results: 1/1/1/1/1/2/3/3/4/4/6/11/12/13/15/22/24/47/MC/MC
Insights: Scottie comes into East Lake with basically the exact profile you want, and I’m willing to throw last week in the trash. Even hand, foot and mouth disease could only stop him from beating 35 other players over 72 holes, and only eventual winner Wyndham Clark topped him over the final 54 holes after Scottie opened with the 2nd-worst round of the day while clearly not at full strength. With the health news, I think that’s enough to cross off last week and focus on the bigger picture. He’s 1st in Tee to Green, GIR, Ball Striking, Scrambling, BOB, BA, Par 4 and LR2, with 18 of 27 tracked categories inside the Top 5, while gaining OTT and Approach in four straight. East Lake is where the confidence really comes in. This will be Scottie’s 7th straight Tour Championship, and he’s gained on the Greens in back-to-back years after four straight losses while posting 17 of 24 rounds in the 60s, including eight straight entering this week and a low of 63 last year. His 2024 run was ridiculous, going 65-66-66-67 to win by four with the starting-strokes handicap, while he’s also the comp god this week with two wins at Bay Hill, two at Muirfield and damn near a second win at TPC River Highlands if not for a missed Monday playoff putt against Viktor. At +320, there’s obviously not much value hiding in the outright, but keep in mind that nobody outside the Top 4 in the DataGolf rankings has won this event since 2019 (Scottie, Rory, Burns and Matt Fitzpatrick) under that trend. Single bet on Scottie won’t gather much moss or build many farms, but you could turn on the television on Sunday and know you got action cooking with Schef.
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Akshay Bhatia
Odds: +9000
Stats: Top 125 exclude OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, GIR, BS, LR2
Top 75% Rank: All exclude TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, GIR, BS, BA, P3, P5, LR2
Top 25% Rank: APP 175200, PUTT, BOB 175200
SG Gains: OTT 0/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 12/68/MC/MC
Tour Champ Results: 13/26 (5 of 8 Rds in 60s.; Low: 66)
Comp Results: 1/5/5/16/22/54/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Akshay makes his 3rd straight Tour Championship appearance, but the formula for him is pretty simple: as the OTT goes, so does Smokeshow, and East Lake is a place where that will reign supreme again. Unfortunately, he’s only had three top-10 finishes in his last 13 starts going back to Augusta, with the recent MCs at the Rocket and last week both tied heavily to losing off the tee. He has shown spike weeks on Approach at the Rocket, U.S. Open and last week, while the putter was nuclear early in the season, helping him grab his biggest win at the East Lake comp that is Bay Hill. He’s proven he can beat elite fields with four top-10s and three top-5s this season, including TPC River Highlands five starts ago, but the path to another spike week likely requires the Approach and putter to carry him while getting something from the tee. East Lake has at least shown some encouragement, with Akshay going 5-for-8 in the 60s last year and sitting T10 entering Sunday before finishing T13, a huge improvement from his 2024 debut where he only broke 70 once. Last year he was field average OTT and putting but above average on Approach and Around the Green, which is probably the profile he needs again this week. At +9000, I’m not completely dismissing him because we’ve seen the ceiling, but the lack of consistency off the tee is a pretty major question mark on a course where the fairway sets up everything else. If the driver cooperates, the price gets interesting quickly; if it doesn’t, I’m afraid we get another long week for Akshay.
Jacob Bridgeman
Odds: +5000
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 200+ (139), ARD (113)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude TG, OTT, OTT/TD AVG, APP, GIR, APP 200+, APP AVG, BS, ARD, BOB 200+, P5, LR4
Top 25% Rank: PUTT, P4, LR2
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 9/30/26/28
Tour Champ Results: 27 (67-67-75-71, 2025)
Comp Results: 15/18/31/34/47/52
Insights: Bridgeman comes into East Lake with the putter finally showing signs of life, gaining in seven of his last eight and helping him post his first top-10 since March last week while gaining across the board for the second time in his last four starts. The Approach has been the more reliable piece with nine straight gains, although only one of those has been better than a half-stroke, so the upside there has been limited. We saw both sides of that last week, with Bridgeman ranking 48th in Approach on Friday before bouncing all the way back to 4th on Saturday and finishing 24th on Sunday. The bigger question is whether he can put all four pieces together, but with OTT, Approach, Around the Green and Putting all gaining in three of his last four, there are finally some signs that the complete week could be coming. East Lake is where the concern comes from, but also where I think there’s some sneaky upside. Bridgeman opened his debut last year with back-to-back 67s and was in the mix for a top-10 before a disastrous weekend sent him to the back of the field, including significant losses on Approach and the Greens. His comp-course résumé is still looking for a top-10, with T15 at Bay Hill his best finish, but the fact that he’s already shown he can score around East Lake matters. At +5000, I think he’s an intriguing play because I don’t expect many to be on him, and while it could certainly be a bumpy ride, the pieces we need are starting to move in the right direction. If the putter stays hot and the Approach finally produces one of those spike weeks, Bridgeman has enough elsewhere to make this price interesting.
Sam Burns
Odds: +1800
Stats: Top 100! exclude ARD (118), BOB 175200 (103)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude TG, ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB 175200, LR1, LR4
Top 25% Rank: PROX, PUTT, BOB, P4, LR3
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 28/3/3/12
Tour Champ Results: 7/12/9/24/18 (15 of 20 Rds in 60s; Low: 66, 4 times)
Comp Results: 4/9/12/12/13/15/16/17/17/24/30/36/43/48/49/50/54/55/81/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Sam Burns comes into East Lake as the 3rd-ranked player in DataGolf (see Scottie insights for trend of note) and 9th in the OWGR, and the ball-striking has been trending exactly where you want it, particularly on Approach where he’s gained in four straight and has been one of the elite players in the field since the beginning of June. The putter was only field average last week after four straight above-average performances, while OTT and Around the Green have been a little more of a rollercoaster, but I see those as tweaks rather than an overhaul. The form is also about as strong as you can find for a player still searching for that elusive win, going 28-3-3-12-2-20-4 over his last seven starts, including a top-5 at Bay Hill where he was in the final pairing and just missed the playoff after a brutal lie late Sunday. He’s also coming off another near-miss against Scottie at the St. Jude, going 67-70-62-73 to finish just two back. East Lake is where the confidence comes from. Burns is making his 6th straight Tour Championship appearance and has gained on Approach in each of his last three here, gained on the Greens in four of five, and has consistently gained Off the Tee and Around the Green as well. He’s now shot 9 of his last 11 rounds in the 60s after putting four straight in the 60s here last year, including a 66 on Sunday, and has finished inside the top 12 in four straight appearances. The one thing still missing is the ceiling, as he hasn’t broken 66 in 20 rounds at East Lake, and I suspect that’s going to be necessary to finally get that elusive win. At +1800, I’m interested, especially after being happy to fade him as a popular play last week. He reminds me a lot of Tommy last year — repeatedly getting right there and coming up just short. Maybe 2026 comes full circle and Burns gets it done this week.
Patrick Cantlay
Odds: +1800
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 17520 (120), PUTT (95), BOB 175200 (97), LR2 (89), LR4 (78)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 175200, PUTT, LR2, LR4
Top 25% Rank: TG, APP, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 2/12/8/28
Tour Champ Results: 2/17/5/7/1/21/21/20 (19 of 32 Rds in 60s; Low: 64 twice)
Comp Results: 1/1/3/4/4/4/5/7/11/12/12/13/13/14/15/15/17/24/30/31/32/35/36/MC/MC/MC
Insights: PC comes into East Lake with the game clicking at the right time, gaining Off the Tee and Approach in four straight and posting three top-8s in his last four starts. The only real blemish has been the putter, with back-to-back losses after elite spikes in three straight starts, including both playoff events, four of his last six and five of his last eight. There are some Billy Horschel vibes here — great run through the playoffs without getting the wins — but Cantlay finally gets a price that reflects the form rather than the name. After sitting in the low 30s last week and easily cashing each-way tickets, +1800 feels much more reasonable for a player who isn’t exactly a bettor’s favorite but doesn’t need to be. The ball-striking is in a great place, and if the putter simply gets back to neutral, I think he’s going to be a major factor. East Lake is where I think the upside gets really interesting. Cantlay is making his 6th straight Tour Championship and 9th overall, and he’s consistently been elite on Approach here while showing above-average OTT play, with Around the Green and Putting the only real areas needing improvement. He’s gained on the Greens before, including last year, and has shown he can go extremely low in Atlanta with four of eight opening rounds in the 60s and a low of 64, while 19 of his 32 career rounds here have been in the 60s. Last year he was 3rd after Thursday and co-led after 54 before the short game imploded Sunday, so we know the ceiling is there. Add two wins at Muirfield Village and multiple top-5s at TPC River Highlands and the comp profile makes sense. I’m leaning FRL over the outright personally, but at +1800 the exposure conversation has definitely changed — the game is clicking, the price finally caught up, and a win here would end a drought dating back to the 2022 BMW.
Alex Fitzpatrick
Odds: +8000
Stats: Top 125 exclude PUTT, BOB 175200, LR3
Top 75% Rank: All exclude ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, P3, P4, LR1, LR3, LR4
Top 25% Rank: TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 0/4
FORM: 44/61/61/71
Tour Champ Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 6/7
Insights: A Fitzmagic comes into his Tour Championship debut with the ball-striking numbers to compete but a scoring profile that makes him extremely difficult to trust at +8000. He ranks inside the Top 25% in Approach, Proximity, Ball Striking and several OTT metrics, but sits last in the field in BOB, BOB 175-200 and BOB AVG while also near the bottom in Putting, Par 4 and LR3. The current form isn’t helping either, with four straight finishes of 44th or worse, back-to-back Approach losses and five straight putting losses, including six of his last seven. The summer was impressive with back-to-back wins, but that stretch came back in June and he’s limping toward East Lake compared to the player we saw earlier in the season. The Tour Championship debut and unfamiliar East Lake greens only add to the concern. Fitzpatrick has never played here, and when you combine that with the scoring deficiencies and a putter that has completely abandoned him, I think there are simply too many questions to overlook. His comp-course results of 6th and 7th show the ceiling is there, and this has been far from a disappointing year for Alex or the Fitzpatrick family, but the current trajectory and season-long profile make him a pretty natural fade candidate. Nothing personal, just business — Alex is going on the fade list, and judging by how many subscribers will be rooting against me being right, this could very quickly become a subscriber favorite.
Matt Fitzpatrick
Odds: +2000
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude OTT (55), PUTT (60), BOB 175200 (108)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude BOB 175200
Top 25% Rank: TG, APP, GIR, APP AVG, BS, ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, BA, P3, P5, LR1, LR3, LR4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 28/12/MC/3
Tour Champ Results: 9/15 (5 of 8 Rds in 60s; Low: 64; FRL: 2022)
Comp Results: 2/3/4/5/9/9/10/13/14/17/22/27/27/31/36/36/41/49/68/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: M Fitzmagic comes into East Lake with a profile that is still extremely strong on paper, with only nine of our tracked season metrics outside the Top 25%, but the current form is making it difficult to trust all four rounds. The putter has been the consistent piece, gaining in four straight, while OTT and Approach have been much more volatile. Last week was a perfect example: he opened with a 65, ranking 3rd in Approach and 6th Tee to Green, before falling off a cliff Friday with the 2nd-worst OTT performance and dead-last Approach round in the field. The weekend didn’t get much better with both areas near the bottom again despite the putter staying warm. That’s been the story lately — spikes for a round or two, but not enough consistency to stay within striking distance. East Lake is at least a place where we’ve seen the upside. Fitzpatrick is back at the Tour Championship for the first time since 2023, when he flirted with the top 10 all week after opening with a co-leading 64 but couldn’t maintain it, and he gained OTT, Around the Green and Putting in both of his previous appearances. He’s also got four top-5s on the comp courses, although the best three came 6-7 years ago, so let’s not get too carried away with the Fitzmagic time machine. The Travelers win this year gives me plenty of reason to like the setup, and his season-long profile remains strong enough that I wouldn’t be shocked if he spikes again. At +2000, though, I’m not fading him, but I’m not betting him either. If Fitzmagic comes out Thursday and he’s sitting atop the leaderboard again, I’ll tip my cap, but until the OTT and Approach stabilize, I’d rather hold him off my lineups than chase the next spike.
Tommy Fleetwood
Odds: +1800
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 175200 (105), BOB 175200 (113), LR1 (117)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 175200, APP AVG, BOB, BOB 175200, P4, LR1, LR3
Top 25% Rank: TG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB 200+, BA, P3, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 47/7/4/13
Tour Champ Results: 1/20/6/16/11 (12 of 20 Rds in 60s; Low: 63)
Comp Results: 2/3/4/10/10/11/13/14/15/16/20/20/26/46/49/61/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Tommyyyyy comes into East Lake with a profile that still screams contender on the right side of the card, ranking inside the Top 6 in the field across every one of his Top 25% categories while gaining Off the Tee in three of four and Approach in four straight. The problem is the recent form and the putter, which has been cold since his ridiculous run at Royal Birkdale, with only one gain in his last four. Last week was especially concerning as he lost OTT, Around the Green and Putting for the first time in six starts, although he still managed two rounds in the 60s before 74-70 on the weekend. It feels very different from the version that arrived at East Lake last year off a T3 at St. Jude and T4 at the BMW, and I’m not sure we can bank on another massive spike simply because it happened last year. East Lake is obviously where the temptation comes from. Fleetwood has gained OTT and Approach in all five of his appearances here, Around the Green in four of five and the Greens in four of five, and last year’s 64-63-67-68 was an absolute elite spike that produced his first Tour Championship win. He’s making his 4th straight appearance and 6th overall with 12 of 20 rounds in the 60s and a low of 63, so the comfort level is undeniable. The comp résumé is strong too, but at +1800 I’m not sure we’re getting the right price for the version of Tommy arriving this week. Could he find the magic again? Absolutely. But at 18/1, this is one where we smile if it happens rather than allocate money to make sure we’re part of the entertainment.
Ryan Fox
Odds: +9000
Stats: Top 125 exclude BA, P5
Top 75% Rank: OTT, APP 200+, ARD, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P4, LR1, LR2, LR4
Top 25% Rank: LR4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 47/58/1/30
Tour Champ Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 14/17/20/24/27/30/66/MC
Insights: Ryan Fox comes into East Lake as the No. 30 player in the field and The Open Champion, but the profile is a little too volatile for me to get carried away at +9000. The longer course should suit him, and he ranks well in some of the scoring metrics, but accuracy with the driver around East Lake is no small concern with this rough. He’s gained Approach in eight of his last nine, while OTT has been much more of a rollercoaster and the putter has gone cold since his Birkdale win, including losses OTT and Putting last week. With only two rounds in the 60s since the Open and a Tour Championship debut ahead, I think the driver will tell the story for me this week. The comp-course résumé doesn’t give me much reason to force it either, with no top-10s and a T14 at Bay Hill back in 2023 his best finish. That said, there’s something interesting about getting Fox into an event where everyone starts from scratch and he gets to play spoiler as the No. 30 seed, especially with Top 10 ranks in BOB 175-200, LR1 and LR4. I’d rather target him selectively than make him a full-week bet — if the current form looks good, a Round 1 sprinkle makes sense, or I’m perfectly happy waiting to see where the number is for Round 2/4. Daily Fantasy is also interesting simply because I doubt many will be on the Kiwi. There’s upside here, but no need to overdo the Fox exposure this week.
Ryan Gerard
Odds: +4500
Stats: Top 100! exclude ARD (123), ARD/SCR AVG (106), BOB 200+ (101), LR1 (102)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 200+, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB 200+, LR1
Top 25% Rank: None
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 16/24/MC/8
Tour Champ Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 2/23/44/54/MC
Insights: Ryan Gerard comes into East Lake with a profile that is good at most things but elite at nothing, which is a tough place to start when we’re dealing with the best 30 players on Tour. He’s the first player I’ve profiled without a Top 25% category in the field, and his best season metrics — TD, PUTT, BOB, P4 and LR2 — only translate to 11th, 8th, 12th, 13th and 15th here. The current form does give me something to work with, gaining OTT and Approach in four straight and Around the Green in three of four, while the putter has shown three elite spikes in his last 10 starts. The Memorial runner-up proves he can hang on a big-boy track, but the Approach has been mostly average since July and the putting has been too inconsistent to trust week after week. East Lake is a different animal, and with this being his debut, I’m not looking to force much at +4500. We’ve seen the ceiling when the pieces line up, but even with near-elite OTT play in two of his last three starts, he’s gone 16-24-MC because the Approach and Putting haven’t followed. Last week was another example, going 39th-3rd over the first two rounds before squandering it, including a 40th on Approach in Round 2 and never cracking the Top 25 in Approach for a round. At +4500, I think the number is tempting enough to at least acknowledge the upside, especially if you believe another putting spike is coming, but I’m not seeing enough here to make him a priority outright. If anything, this is a player I’d rather target for a Round 1/DFS dart than commit to for four rounds, and at this price I’m comfortable letting someone else chase the spike.
Chris Gotterup
Odds: +2200
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 175200 (117), APP 200+ (77), PROX (114), APP AVG (81), LR2 (80)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude TD, APP, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, LR2
Top 25% Rank: OTT, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, P3, LR1
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 4/30/MC/18
Tour Champ Results: 10 (70-63-69-66, 2025)
Comp Results: 18/27/30/35/61/MC/MC
Insights: Gotterup comes into East Lake with the driver in a really good place, gaining Off the Tee in four straight and showing elite upside there since his win at the John Deere, but the rest of the game has been much more of a rollercoaster. The biggest concern is Approach, particularly the longer irons, where the profile doesn’t stack up with this field, and missing both fairways and greens around East Lake is not going to make life easier. He lost on Approach last week but was bailed out by an elite putting performance, which isn’t a dice roll I want to rely on week after week. He did gain across the bag at the St. Jude but only managed a T30, while his recent Approach numbers have been all over the place. The ceiling is absolutely there — three wins this season on three different types of venues and a sneaky top-5 last week — but getting all four rounds to cooperate remains the question. East Lake is at least a place where we know he can score. Gotterup made his Tour Championship debut last year with a 70 before exploding for a 63 on Friday, moving inside the Top 10 and just six back entering the weekend, before finishing T10 after three of four rounds in the 60s. His T18 at Bay Hill is his best comp finish, so the course history isn’t screaming at us, but there’s enough here to believe another spike is possible. At +2200, I’m not ready to completely dismiss the outright given the season he’s having, but I prefer the shorter-term angles. First Round Leader and Round Matchups are where I’d rather have exposure, with the +2200 outright more of a dark-horse dart if you want to get some value in the 20-range.
Russell Henley
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 125 exclude APP 200+ (146), BOB 200+ (143)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude TG, TD, APP, APP 175200, APP 200+, APP AVG, BS, ARD, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG
Top 25% Rank: SCR, PUTT, BA, P4, LR4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 12/30/20/9
Tour Champ Results: 2/4/14/3/12 (14 of 20 Rds in 60s; Low: 61; FRL: 2025)
Comp Results: 1/2/4/5/6/6/6/7/11/12/13/16/19/19/22/27/29/32/33/45/48/49/53/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Russ comes into East Lake with the putter in a really good place, gaining in seven of his last eight starts, but the rest of the profile is a little harder to trust at +2500. Approach has been around field average since his win at Colonial, maybe a tick better but nothing close to the level needed to separate in this field, while Around the Green has been a consistent negative with losses in six of his last eight. OTT has been more of a rollercoaster, with spikes at the St. Jude and Travelers but not enough consistency to justify the price and popularity. The season-long numbers also tell a similar story, with Scrambling, Putting, Ball Avoidance, Par 4 and LR4 his only Top 25% categories in this field. East Lake is where the confidence comes from. Henley is making his 4th straight Tour Championship appearance and has gained here repeatedly, with 14 of 20 rounds in the 60s and a ridiculous low of 61 last year when he opened as the FRL and co-led into the weekend. He’s also finished inside the Top 5 in three of his last four appearances, including T2 last year, and has shown he can get hot late with a 62 on Sunday in 2024 and a 65 that was the low round of the day Sunday in 2017. The comp résumé is strong too with a win at Bay Hill, T2 at TPC River Highlands and a Top 5 at Muirfield Village that included an FRL last year. At +2500, I understand the appeal because the East Lake history is undeniable, but I’m struggling to pay this number with the Approach and Around the Green trending the wrong way. I’d recommend staying on the sidelines or short term slips over the full outright ticket.
Viktor Hovland
Odds: +2800
Stats: Top 100! exclude LR1 (134)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude OTT, GIR, APP 200+, BA, P4, P5, LR1, LR2, LR4
Top 25% Rank: APP 175200, P3
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 33/19/MC/13
Tour Champ Results: 12/12/1/15/5/20 (19 of 24 Rds in 60s; Low: 63 twice)
Comp Results: 1/1/2/3/10/11/13/15/20/25/29/36/40/42/47/48/49/51/54/WD/MC
Insights: Viktor Hovland comes into East Lake with a profile that still makes plenty of sense, especially at +2800 for a player who is still under 30 and already a Tour Championship winner. He’s making his 7th straight appearance and has gained Off the Tee and Approach in all six starts here, Around the Green in four of six and Putting in four straight, with 19 of 24 rounds in the 60s. The weekend scoring is particularly impressive, with 11 of his last 12 weekend rounds in the 60s and five straight Sunday rounds in the 60s, including two 63s. The current form is a little more of a mystery, though, with a T13 last week after a strong Friday where he was 2nd in Approach and 4th putting before falling into the 40s in Approach over the weekend and struggling across the board Sunday outside of the Greens. That’s the good and bad of Viktor right now — the price is appealing because we know the ceiling is there, but he could also put himself behind the pace early. East Lake is where I keep coming back for the confidence. Hovland won here in 2023 by five with the handicap after sharing the low score without it, and he’s repeatedly shown an ability to make a run late with 131 weekend scores in both 2024 and 2025. Add the Muirfield Village win and the Monday playoff victory over Scottie at TPC River Highlands this year, and the comfort level on the comp courses is pretty clear. At +2800, I’m not ready to dismiss him, especially with the combination of current upside and ridiculous East Lake history. I’ll have some placement/FRL exposure, but I also don’t hate waiting to see where he sits after 36 holes. You’ll take a hit on the odds, but if Viktor puts another slow start together, I’d rather pay up for evidence than force it early.
Si Woo Kim
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP 200+ (57), PUTT (106), LR1 (72), LR4 (62)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude PUTT
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, APP, APP 175200, APP AVG, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, BA, P3, P4, LR2, LR3
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 33/2/42/6
Tour Champ Results: 20/10 (4 of 8 Rds in 60s; Low: 65)
Comp Results: 4/9/10/11/13/13/15/18/19/25/26/26/29/30/31/31/39/41/44/49/63/64/74/MC/MC
Insights: SWK comes into East Lake off a stellar statistical season, sitting 5th in the FedExCup and 11th in DataGolf, with Top 25% numbers across nearly every key ball-striking and scoring category. He’s gained Off the Tee in three straight and Approach in four straight, while Around the Green has been a positive in three of four, and the comp profile makes plenty of sense with three top-10s at Bay Hill, including this year. This is exactly the type of setup where Si Woo’s length, long irons and ball striking can shine, and the current form has shown the ceiling with a runner-up at the St. Jude and T6 at the Travelers. The only real concern is the putter, which ranks well down the field and has been the weakest part of the profile all season. East Lake is where I have a harder time getting there at +2500. This is only his 3rd Tour Championship appearance and first since 2023, with gains in only 50% of his East Lake starts Off the Tee and Approach, although he has gained on the Greens and Around the Green in every appearance. He did backdoor a Top 20 in 2023 with 68-66 on the weekend and showed the ability to close here on debut in 2016 with a Sunday 65 that vaulted him from T20 into the Top 10. The upside is absolutely there, and I’ll be rooting for him to cap off a great statistical season with a win, but the lack of reps around East Lake combined with a price that hasn’t really moved from the last few weeks is where I’m getting off the Si Woo train. Happy to tip my cap if he gets it done, but I’m not forcing the exposure.
Tom Kim
Odds: +5000
Stats: Top 100! exclude BOB 200+ (135), LR4 (104)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude OTT, OTT/TD AVG, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, LR4
Top 25% Rank: APP, GIR, PROX, APP AVG, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BA, P4, LR2, LR3
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 28/12/5/20
Tour Champ Results: 20 (67-70-72-67, 2023)
Comp Results: 2/34/38/43/45/52/MC/MC
Insights: Tom Kim comes into East Lake after a clutch run down the stretch to get himself back into the Tour Championship for the second time, and the current ball-striking gives him at least something to work with. He’s gained Off the Tee in four straight and Approach in 13 consecutive starts, although the Approach number finally dipped a bit last week. Around the Green has been a rollercoaster all year, while the putter has been inconsistent as well, so seeing three straight putting gains is at least a welcome sign. His season profile is actually pretty strong in Approach, GIR, Proximity, Scrambling, Ball Avoidance and Par 4 scoring, but there isn’t much separation from the field in the areas that tend to create the big spikes. East Lake is where I struggle to see the path. Kim is making his 2nd Tour Championship appearance after finishing 20th in his 2023 debut, where he gained on and around the Greens but couldn’t put together enough elsewhere to contend. The comp résumé is even thinner, with a runner-up at TPC River Highlands — yes, the one where he lost to Scottie in the playoff and the protest/wedge situation did absolutely nothing to help my bet that week — as the only real result worth mentioning. At +5000, I appreciate the price and the fact that he’s already accomplished a lot by getting back here, but I just don’t see enough here to expect much this week. He’ll need another level of Approach and a sustained putting spike to beat this field, and I’m not willing to bet on that happening for four rounds.
Min Woo Lee
Odds: +6000
Stats: Top 100! exclude GIR (112), PROX (121), LR1 (128)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP, GIR, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BA, P4, LR1
Top 25% Rank: OTT/TD AVG, ARD, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 1/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 47/55/59/2
Tour Champ Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 6/9/44/49/62/63/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: MWL comes into East Lake as another player limping toward the finish, with three straight losses on Approach and none of the above-average OTT or Putting play we saw earlier in the playoff run. That’s a major concern for a player whose season profile is built around the driver, Around the Green and birdie-making, especially when the Approach, GIR and Proximity numbers already leave him toward the bottom of this field. The runner-up at the Scottish Open show the ceiling is absolutely there, while the T6 at Bay Hill gives him at least one strong comp result this year, but most of the better work came earlier in the season. Right now, the form simply isn’t matching the player we saw when he was at his best. East Lake is another layer of uncertainty with this being Min Woo’s debut. The comp résumé is thin beyond the T6 at Bay Hill, with the next-best result being the 2023 Travelers, and the current stretch makes it difficult to expect another spike against this field. At +6000, the number is tempting but I’m comfortable letting him cook other lineups and bank accounts this week. The driver and putter would need to return to their playoff form while the Approach needs a complete turnaround, and that’s too many things I need to go right at once.
Robert MacIntyre
Odds: +4500
Stats: Top 125 exclude APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG
Top 75% Rank: OTT, OTT/TD AVG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, BA, P3, P4, LR2, LR3, LR4
Top 25% Rank: PUTT, LR4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 7/WD/28/3
Tour Champ Results: 17/17 (5 of 8 Rds in 60s; Low: 64 twice)
Comp Results: 10/11/16/17/20/24/36/MC
Insights: Return of the Mac comes into East Lake after a solid week following the withdrawl at the St. Jude, losing only a little Around the Green while gaining Off the Tee, Approach and Putting. He’s now got three top-10s in his last five starts and has gained on the Greens in six of his last seven, while last week marked his best OTT performance since April. The question is whether that was the start of something positive or simply another flash from a player who has been inconsistent for much of the year. His season profile actually has plenty to like, with strong OTT, Around the Green, Scrambling, Putting, BOB and late-round numbers, and we’ve seen the ceiling as recently as TPC River Highlands five starts ago where he finished inside the top 10. East Lake is where I can see the argument for a little exposure. This is his 3rd straight Tour Championship appearance, and he’s gained Off the Tee, Around the Green and Putting in both previous starts. He opened last year with 64-66 and sat just three back after Friday before a brutal Saturday dropped him out of contention, while his debut in 2024 featured a Sunday 64 that backdoored him into the Top 20. There’s enough history here to believe he can score, but at +4500 I’m not looking to force the outright. A little DFS and a Round 1 matchup makes sense, and I don’t think a Top 10 placement is out of reach if the good version of Bobby Mac shows up. Sometimes that’s what we value at the Clubhouse — betting on the player we know he can be rather than simply reading directly from the stat sheet.
Hideki Matsuyama
Odds: +3000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude OTT (95), OTT/TD AVG (81), GIR (90), BS (78), PUTT (82), BOB 175200 (88), BOB 200+ (98)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, GIR, BS, BOB 200+, BOB AVG
Top 25% Rank: APP 200+, ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, LR1
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 28/7/7/5
Tour Champ Results: 29/9/11/26/15/9/4/26/5/12/22 (20 of 44 Rds 60s; Low: 63; FRL: 2016)
Comp Results: 1/5/6/6/8/12/13/13/14/16/18/20/21/22/22/23/30/33/38/41/43/45/45/49/56/62
Insights: Hideki comes into East Lake with the Approach game continuing to be the reason I can’t completely quit him, gaining in eight of his last 10 starts and producing another elite spike last week. The driver has also quietly come around with seven straight gains, but the short game has been the issue, losing both Around the Green and Putting in each of his last two starts and ending a run of four straight top-10s. Last week the irons finally woke up after a sleepy opening round, but the putter was cold all week and the short game again kept him from turning another strong ball-striking week into a real result. At +3000, there’s still enough number here to make the temptation real, especially with the way he continues to tease me throughout the year, but the question is whether we’re betting on the player or waiting for all the pieces to finally click at the same time. East Lake gives me some history but not enough confidence to call it a strength anymore. Deki is making his 12th Tour Championship appearance and 3rd straight, with a first-round lead in 2016 and a low of 63 in 2022, but he’s lost on the Greens in four of his last five starts here and has gained on Approach in only half of his last four. His best finishes are getting further into the rearview mirror, while even the comp résumé is built more on older results, although a win at Muirfield Village is certainly nothing to shake a stick at. He’s also shown the ability to bounce back from terrible rounds — 76-69, 77-65, 75-66 and 75-68 — so I’m not completely dismissing the possibility of another Hideki spike. There are better East Lake histories and more consistent current profiles in this field, and I’m leaning toward last week being the final betting stop for me this year… but if you know me, I may just have to dabble one more time. Check back tomorrow.
Collin Morikawa
Odds: +2000
Stats: Top 100! exclude SCR (139), ARD/SCR AVG (112)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BA
Top 25% Rank: TG, TD, APP, GIR, APP 175200, BS, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P5, LR2, LR4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 4/52/18/3
Tour Champ Results: 19/2/6/21/26/6 (15 of 24 Rds in 60s; Low: 61; FRL: 2023)
Comp Results: 1/2/2/2/3/5/9/13/20/36/42/48/64/WD/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Collin comes into East Lake with one of the strongest ball-striking profiles in the field, and the Approach game is once again doing the heavy lifting. He’s gained on Approach in four straight and Off the Tee in six straight, while ranking top 5 in the field in Approach, GIR, Ball Striking, BOB and multiple scoring categories. The concern is everything around that elite iron play, with Around the Green losses returning in five of his last six and the Greens continuing to be a weakness at East Lake, where he’s lost putting in four of six starts. The encouraging part is that the putter has been warmer recently, and if he can simply avoid giving those gains away around the greens, the rest of the profile is more than good enough to contend. East Lake is where the confidence comes from. Morikawa is making his 7th straight Tour Championship appearance and has gained on Approach and Off the Tee in all six previous starts, with a 61 to open 2023 and the low 72-hole score in 2024 when he went 66-63-67-66. He’s also got the type of comp résumé I want to see here with a win at Muirfield Village, two runner-ups there and another runner-up at Bay Hill, while last year’s T3 after Thursday shows how quickly he can put himself into the mix. The 2025 version is the concern after falling from T3 after Round 1 to outside the top 20, but he arrives off a T4 at the BMW with strong ball-striking and a better putter. At +2000, this feels like the kind of price where I’m willing to give Morikawa another look. If the putter stays respectable and the short game doesn’t become the story, the path to another East Lake run is very clear.
Kristoffer Reitan
Odds: +6500
Stats: Top 125 exclude SCR, BOB 175200, P3, LR2
Top 75% Rank: OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, GIR, BS, ARD, PUTT, BOB 200+, P5, LR1, LR3, LR4
Top 25% Rank: None
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 1/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 22/58/18/MC
Tour Champ Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 6/22
Insights: Kristoffer Reitan comes into East Lake without a single Top 25% ranking, and playing as a debutant makes the profile even tougher to trust. His season has been driven largely by Off the Tee and Putting, but neither has been reliable enough to make me comfortable against this field, while the Approach game has gone backwards with losses in four of his last five starts. He’s still looking for his first top 10 since the Memorial, and while the two wins this year at the Truist and Nedbank along with four PGA Tour top 10s prove there is plenty of talent here, those spikes have generally required the Approach game to show up rather than simply leaning on the putter. First time around East Lake is the biggest issue for me. His comp résumé is only a T6 and T22, and asking him to beat this group at +6500 while relying heavily on the putter and driver feels like a top-20 hope rather than a true contender. We saw the Approach spike at the Truist and Muirfield Village that helped create this season, but I’m not expecting that to suddenly become the baseline this week. At +6500, I’m happy to fade and pay to see it — if he finds another spike week, congratulations to those who got there, but I’d rather look for a Round 1 or DFS angle than force outright exposure.
Justin Rose
Odds: +5000
Stats: Top 125 exclude SCR, BOB 175200, LR2
Top 75% Rank: TD, APP, GIR, APP 175200, APP AVG, BS, PUTT, BOB, P5, LR1, LR4
Top 25% Rank: None
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 3/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 22/39/MC/25
Tour Champ Results: 21/26/4/10/2/4/6/2/20/15/11 (28 of 44 Rds in 60s; Low: 65; FRL: 2012)
Comp Results: 1/2/2/2/3/3/3/4/6/8/8/8/9/9/9/12/13/13/13/14/15/19/24/25/30/36/44/56/63/68/68
Insights: JR comes into East Lake as another player without a single Top 25% ranking, but unlike some of the other players in that group, there is still plenty of quality in the underlying profile. He sits top 10 in the field in Approach and Ball Striking and top 15 in Driving Accuracy, GIR, Approach from 175-200 and Late Round 1 scoring, while the irons have been elite over his last two starts. The issue is getting everything else to cooperate, with the putter cooling last week and Off the Tee and Around the Green remaining inconsistent since the U.S. Open. At +5000, the number is interesting for a player with this much East Lake history, but I don’t need to dip into the Rose fund this week without seeing more current-form evidence. East Lake is where the argument for Rose gets much stronger. He’s making back-to-back Tour Championship appearances after not playing here since 2019, with two runner-ups and seven of 11 Round 1s in the 60s. He’s finished inside the top 10 here even when the putter hasn’t cooperated, including a T2 in 2018 after sitting just one back into the weekend and another T2 in 2012 after leading into Sunday. The Memorial win and multiple strong Bay Hill finishes also fit the profile, but the Around the Green game needs to get back toward field average if he wants to turn another East Lake top-20 type week into a top 10. For me, this is more of a Daily Fantasy or Round 1 matchup look than an outright at +5000. The history is strong enough to respect, but the current form hasn’t given me enough reason to expect the full Rose package for four rounds.
Adam Scott
Odds: +5500
Stats: Top 100! exclude ARD (105), PUTT (104)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude ARD, PUTT, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P4, LR3
Top 25% Rank: GIR, APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, P5, LR4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 16/12/9/66
Tour Champ Results: 4/25/6/8/9/14/19/6/27/26/1/7/21 (30 of 52 Rds in 60s; Low: 65 5 times)
Comp Results: 2/3/3/4/4/5/9/11/12/12/13/13/16/19/25/26/29/30/30/31/31/33/35/35/36/39/41/46
Insights: Adam Scott comes into East Lake with enough ball-striking form to understand why he’ll be a trendy pick this week. He’s gained Off the Tee and Approach in three of his last four, while the putter has also shown signs of life during the playoffs, and the season profile is stronger than the price might suggest with top-25% numbers in GIR, Approach from 175-200, Approach 200+, Proximity, Approach Average, Par 5 scoring and Late Round 4. The Around the Green game remains the obvious weakness, but this is a player who has quietly put together two top 6s in his last three starts and seven top 10s overall this season. At +5500, I understand the appeal and think there’s enough here to take a closer look rather than simply dismissing the 45-year-old. East Lake is where the real intrigue comes in. Scott has 52 rounds here with six top-10 finishes and a win in 2006, along with five other top-5s, so there is absolutely a path even if the most recent strong finish came back in 2019. He opened 2024 with 66-67-68 and sat just five back entering Sunday, while his 65 on Sunday in 2019 nearly produced another top 5. The history also shows how quickly he can get into contention, with 10 of 13 opening rounds in the 60s and seven of 13 Sundays in the 60s. At +5500, this is one where I can see the argument for a placement or DFS exposure, especially if the playoff ball-striking carries over. The question is whether the Around the Green game can stay out of the way, but if it does, Scott has more East Lake equity than most of this price range.
Alex Smalley
Odds: +6500
Stats: Top 100! exclude P3 (123), LR4 (107)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude ARD, PUTT, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P4, LR3
Top 25% Rank: GIR, APP 200+, APP AVG
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 16/24/7/53
Tour Champ Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 9/38/47/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Alex Smalley comes into East Lake with a profile that is quietly strong where it matters most, ranking top 10 in the field in GIR, Approach 200+, Proximity, Approach Average and Par 4 scoring. He’s gained Approach in four straight and Around the Green in three of four, while the putter has also gained in three straight, making the 16-24-7 stretch through the first three playoff events more interesting than the ugly 53 last week. The concern is Off the Tee, where he’s been closer to field average, along with poor late-round scoring numbers that make me much more interested in how he starts than how he finishes. If the driver finds the form we saw earlier this season, the elite Approach game gives him enough ceiling to make some noise. The unknown at East Lake is both the appeal and the concern. This is Smalley’s debut, so there’s no course history to lean on, while his comp résumé is limited to a T9 and a lot of misses. We’ve seen the formula work before, though, with the 2023 Travelers T9 coming from above-average OTT, elite Approach and a field-average putter. At +6500, I’m intrigued enough to get involved but not enough to blindly trust four rounds. I’d much rather play the first-round matchup and see what the game looks like before adding more exposure. An each-way or Top 10/Top 20 sprinkle is interesting, but if the driver shows up early, that’s when I’ll decide whether Smalley deserves more of the bankroll.
J.J. Spaun
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 100! exclude SCR (122), PUTT (132), P5 (108), LR2 (129)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 200+, SCR, PUTT, BA, P4, P5, LR2, LR4
Top 25% Rank: APP 175200, PROX, BOB 175200, LR1, LR3
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 22/34/50/40
Tour Champ Results: 25 (68-71-71-66, 2025)
Comp Results: 7/12/14/30/30/41/47/37/49/52/52/63/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: JJS comes into East Lake looking much better in spots than his recent finishes suggest, but the consistency just hasn’t been there. He’s gained Off the Tee in three of his last four, Approach in three of four and Around the Green in all four, while the putter produced his 2nd-best performance of the season at the Travelers. The problem is the pieces haven’t arrived together — he gained across the board at the Open but finished T40, opened 67-67 at the Rocket before posting 142 on the weekend, and sat 3rd into the BMW weekend before 72-73 dropped him down the board. At +4000, that’s enough to make me interested, but not enough to trust him for 72 holes when the recent results continue to tell the same story. East Lake is another reason I’m leaning toward shorter-term exposure. Spaun made his debut here last year and went 68-71-71-66, with that Sunday 66 showing there is some scoring upside, while his T7 at TPC River Highlands this year gives him another comp result to work with. But with only one start here and no top 10 since June, I’d rather bet on the player hiding inside the round-by-round numbers than the final results. +4000 is tempting, but I’m leaning First Round and Matchups over the outright. He’s a potential DFS strategy play because most of the field will look at the recent finishes, while the round scores suggest he’s closer than the results indicate.
Gary Woodland
Odds: +5000
Stats: Top 125 exclude ARD, P3, P5
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP, ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB, BOB 200+, P3, P5, LR2
Top 25% Rank: OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP 200+, LR1
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 4/42/10/MC
Tour Champ Results: 15/11/19/10/9/22/13 (13 of 28 Rds in 60s; Low: 63)
Comp Results: 3/5/5/6/16/20/20/21/22/23/24/27/33/36/36/38/48/49/52/57/63/71/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Garyyyy comes into East Lake with one of the more interesting comeback stories in this field, and honestly, if there were ever a Comeback Player of the Year case, it has to start here. He’s coming off a T4 and T10 in two of his last three starts, gained in all four putting rounds last week and ranks 1st in the field in Late Round 1 scoring while sitting top 25% in OTT, Total Driving and Approach 200+. The driver has been the biggest weapon, and even last week he was able to stay in contention despite not having his best Sunday off the tee. The Around the Green and scoring profile keeps me from going all-in, but there is enough here to believe this version of Gary is capable of doing more than simply making up the numbers. East Lake gives me another reason to take a look. This is his 8th Tour Championship appearance but his first trip around East Lake since 2019, and he’s got four top-6 finishes here — although all came between 2017 and 2022 — including a T3 after Round 1 in 2018 and multiple backdoor pushes from strong weekend rounds. He has never put three rounds in the 60s here, but he’s also shown the ability to find a low one, including a 63 in 2014. At +5000, I’m not jumping on the full-tournament ticket, but I recommend grabbing some exposure. Round matchups and DFS make sense to me and another guy to slim down in the short-term bucket.
Cameron Young
Odds: +1800
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude PUTT (113), BOB 200+ (54), P5 (59), LR4 (78)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude PUTT
Top 25% Rank: All exclude APP, GIR, PUTT, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, BA, P3, P4, P5, LR2, LR3, LR4
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 37/39/61/8
Tour Champ Results: 4/19 (6 of 8 Rds in 60s; Low: 62)
Comp Results: 3/9/10/13/25/36/46/47/50/52/60/60/MC/MC
Insights: CY comes into East Lake with one of the strongest statistical profiles in the field, ranking top 5 in Total Driving, OTT/TD, Approach 200+, Proximity, Approach Average, Scrambling, Around the Green and Late Round 1 scoring. The problem is the timing, with the playoff run showing a clear drop-off, particularly with the irons and putter, while he’s gained Off the Tee in four straight and Around the Green in three of four. That’s the frustrating part at +1800 — the season-long profile screams contender, but the current form makes me want a little more number before fully buying in. Still, this is the same player who won twice in Florida, nearly won The Open and has put himself firmly into the Player of the Year conversation, so I’m not willing to completely dismiss him. East Lake gives me enough confidence to keep him in the mix. Young finished 4th last year after a 19th on debut, opening with a 129 thanks to the low round of the day on Friday with a 62 and putting himself just two back into the weekend before a Saturday 71 knocked him off pace. He’s also got three top-10s on the comp courses, led by a Bay Hill result this year, so there is a clear path for the profile to work. The issue is simple: he’s shown two great Sundays here but has struggled on Saturdays, and he’ll need four good rounds to win this thing. At +1800, the current form makes it a hat tip over a betting tip. Possible? Absolutely. Bettable? Ehh.