2026 THE PLAYERS Championship - Player Deep Dives
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Legend:
Odds - Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Rank: Based on Season Stats Rank in this Field
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
PLAYERS Results: Finishes at THE PLAYERS Championship
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Sedgefield Country Club, TPC River Highlands & Potomac Avenel
Rory McIlroy
Odds: +1100
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude DA (69), APP 150175 (70), BOB 150175 (64)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude DA, APP 150175, PUTT, BOB 150175, P3
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: WD/2/14/33
PLAYERS Results: 1/19/MC/33/MC/1/MC/35/12/8/6/8/MC/MC/MC
Comp Results: 5/6/7/11/12/17/19
Insights: The handicap on Rory is relatively simple this week: is he healthy? If you’re asking us, the answer is no. As of Tuesday afternoon, Rory is very much questionable to even tee it up this week after downplaying his back injury, which led to a WD at Bay Hill.
Does he need a practice round from a golf perspective? Probably not. Should we want to see him play a practice round given the health concerns? Yes. There’s no doubt the form and skill are exactly what’s required for success at Sawgrass, but none of that matters if he’s not 100% — or even playing. The flip side of that is: if he plays and you decide to roster Rory in DFS, he’s going to be under-owned — making him an elite leverage play IF he’s actually healthy. Is that the case, though? Our guess is no, but these types of injury rumors have made golf hardos like us look silly before.
Collin Morikawa
Odds: +2000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 150175 (84), ARD (88), SCR (108), ARD/SCR AVG (98), PUTT (105)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude APP 150175, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BA, P3
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 5/7/1/54
PLAYERS Results: 10/45/13/MC/41
Comp Results: 13/31/36/42/MC/MC
Insights: Completely remove your biases of Morikawa if they are fueled by his results last year because Collin has exploded back onto the scene as one of the game’s elites. The start to the PGA season was a bit rocky, but you could see the vision. He was ball-striking the crap out of the ball, but the short game — unsurprisingly— was lacking. Then Pebble happened, where he was essentially a zero putter and blazed the field to the tune of +12.6 stokes gained T2G over the course of the weekend. That win broke a multi-year drought, during which his mentals came into question, and those frustrations came out in media sessions and were heavily scrutinized by the golf community. Now, there’s been a constant smile on his face, he’s confident in his game, and somehow, someway, the putter has been an asset over the last 2 events — gaining close to 4 strokes on the greens combined at Genesis and API. In those events, he was positive in every major SG category. What more can you ask for? The biggest needs at this course are an accurate driver and great iron play….well, that’s Collin to a tee. Over his last 12 rounds, he’s 1st in the field in SG: Approach and 4th in Driving Accuracy. Last year, he gained over 11 strokes ball-striking (3 OTT, 8 APP) en route to a T10. He lost 2 strokes putting. In fact, he’s never gained strokes on the greens here (5 appearances). Maybe this recent renewed confidence on the greens can fix that? At the very least, Collin is a great vote for OAD this week and should be on your outright radar as well.
Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +375
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP (88), PROX (120),
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude DA, APP, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, SCR, P3
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 24/12/4/3
PLAYERS Results: 20/1/1/55/MC
Comp Results: 1/4/6/13/47/MC
Insights: Scottie certainly doesn’t look like Scottie. The iron play is off and the putting was meh at best last week at API, where he finished 24th — which feels like DFL when we’re talking about Scottie. Having finished T12 at Genesis, it was the first time Scottie finished outside the top 10 in consecutive events since API/Players last year, which he followed up with a T2 at Houston Open prior to the Masters. Like most, we circled Scottie as a potential OAD selection/bet at the Masters since the offseason, hoping for something like 5/1, but as we sit here just 30 days away from our beloved major, we’re scratching our heads. His current play might help us get to that 5/1 target price or better — especially if he’s average at best this week and in Houston — but big losses with the irons in back-to-back events is unsettling. All things considered, we’d prefer to see a return to form prior to Augusta, even if we’re on the sidelines from a betting perspective (that’s what the each-way market is for). Absolutely possible he returns to the Scottie we know, but why invest in this price without more confidence? Numbers say no thanks and the eye test as well specially for once again the price for what it is. Bet or no bet, we’re paying full attention to Scottie this week. As for now, hat tip. Fade of the week? Now that would be dangerous.
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Ludvig Aberg
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 100! exclude SCR (169), ARD/SCR AVG (120), BA (134)
Rank: Top 75 exclude SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BA; Top 25: TG, OTT/DA AVG, GIR, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, P3
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 3/20/37/MC
PLAYERS Results: MC/8
Comp Results: 14/24/27/36
Insights: Sweeeeeedddd! Look at that man go! T3 finish at Bay Hill with pretty significant gains in each SG category is going to make Aberg a very popular pick this week — and for good reason. If he’s back to form after the WD and MC at the Amex and the Farmers, then anything north of 20/1 feels like a very fair and bet-able price. The number makes sense given that his course history is as inconsistent as his 2026 season has been thus far, posting a -2.3 SG: TOT missed cut last year and a +11 SG: TOT 8th-place finish in 2024. If you’re a model and numbers person, he’s not going to jump off the page at you. Despite his recent uptick, he’s still 88th in the field in SG: Approach over his last 24 rounds and 50th in Driving Accuracy; however, overall Proximity, Par 5 BOB%, and Approach from 200+ are all assets, and he tends to play well on difficult courses. If you’re a vibes person when it comes to assembling your outright card, you’re likely all over the Swede this week. We won’t talk you off, but realize the depth of the floor matches the loft of the ceiling in this case.
Daniel Berger
Odds: +6000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude ARD (132), ARD/SCR AVG (103), PUTT (108), P3 (124)
Rank: Top 75 exclude ARD; Top 25: TG, APP, GIR, APP 150175, APP 175200, APP AVG, BS, BA, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 2/32/MC/75
PLAYERS Results: 20/13/9/67/57/65/9/MC
Comp Results: 2/5/39/42/45/67/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Pour one out for last week’s Berger backers. With Champ being a Deki backer at WMPO and Sammy being on Lowry at Cognizant, we can empathize with them. That’s the game we love, baby. Berger is someone we’ve been keeping an eye on for some time, so it was great to see him get some reps under some Sunday pressure, even if he didn’t come away with the win. Selfishly, we had a bit of FOMO, as we’ve discussed targeting him in Florida amongst each other behind the scenes, so off a very good performance in his home state, we’re encouraged by the price on Danny Boy this week. In his last 3 trips to Sawgrass, he finished T20 last year after a T13 in 2022 and a T9 in 2021. The short game was fantastic in his last 2 trips here, gaining bigly both on and around the greens, but those two areas haven’t been the best for him prior to last week. The iron play has been spotty too, but he’s still 20th in the field in SG: Approach L24 rounds and 16th in GIR% over that same amount of time. Going one step further, he’s top-25 in Par 5 BOB%, Bogey Avoidance, and Par 4 451-500, so the framework for success this week is there. The putter and the driver just need to cooperate simultaneously, which happened most of last week and we think he bounces right back into the thick of it again this week.
Matt Fitzpatrick
Odds: +4500
Stats: Top 75!! exclude ARD (81), SCR (91), ARD/SCR AVG (86), PUTT (119), P3 (96)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: TG, OTT, DA, OTT/DA AVG, APP, GIR, APP 150175, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB AVG, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 41/24/14/9
PLAYERS Results: MC/5/MC/MC/9/41/46/MC/MC
Comp Results: 2/8/17/36/36/49/MC
Insights: We were ready to see Fitz explode after a 9th-place finish in Phoenix, but he’s moonwalked since then, finishing T14 at Pebble, T24 at Genesis, and T41 at API. It was good to see his putter return last week at Bay Hill, but the ball-striking was atrocious, as he was a negative off-the-tee and lost over 5 strokes on APP over the course of the entire weekend. Was the iron play an anomaly? It’s possible considering he was a big gainer in that department in 4 of the 5 events prior. All in all, his recent form is a mixed bag, so let’s check out his course history…and what do you know… another mixed bag! MC-5-MC-MC-9. Your guess is as good as ours. For what it’s worth, the putter is largely a positive for him here. It’s been the iron play that’s been most concerning, as he’s been -1.0 SG: Approach or worse in 5 of 9 outings here. The price seems fair, but actually going out and winning is another story. Each-way market? Fine. Otherwise, DFS or placements are probably the way to go for now.
Tommy Fleetwood
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 125 exclude GIR, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG
Rank: Top 75 exclude GIR, APP 17500, PROX, APP AVG; Top 25: TG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 49/7/4/41
PLAYERS Results: 14/35/27/22/MC/5/7/41
Comp Results: 2/13/15/46/59/65/MC
Insights: Tommy finished 49th at API last week while losing strokes in a major way off the tee, approach and with the flat stick but we’re willing to write that off given his long-term form. We didn’t see Tommy as a great fit for Bay Hill, but we welcome backers this week at Sawgrass, where he’s been solid throughout his career with just 1 missed cut, 2 Top 10s and 3 more Top 30s. Tommy reminds us of someone like vintage Rickie, who can get hot out of seemingly no where and scorch the field like Fowler did back in that Players Championship victory in 2015. The upside is always there with Tommy Lad, it’s just about closing. He put that issue away with his win at the Tour Championship in August, but three losses on approach in his last four starts is probably enough to keep us off this week.
Viktor Hovland
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 100! exclude OTT (139), GIR (132), BS (115), ARD (107), P5 (134)
Rank: Top 75 exclude OTT, GIR, P5; Top 25: DA, APP, APP 150175, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, BOB 175200, P3
SG Gains: OTT 1/4, APP 4/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 13/41/58/10
PLAYERS Results: MC/62/3/9/MC
Comp Results: 4/11/20/29/54/WD
Insights: Driving usually is a strength of BDV’s, but it’s been terrible for him this season. In 4 2026 PGA starts, he’s gained strokes OTT just once, and it was just +0.9 over the course of 4 rounds at Genesis. In the other 3 events, -2.1 at API, -3 at Pebble, -2.4 at Phoenix. That’s a concern, as is the inconsistency in his short game. He tends to wake up randomly for big putting gains every few weeks, but he rarely ever pieces together two big putting performances in a row, and he’s historically bad around the greens. That puts an exorbitant amount of pressure on his Approach play, which is absolutely the best part of his game — gaining bigly in all but two events since the 2025 RBC Heritage. The question: is that enough to propel him to a victory at a course like Sawgrass? Unlikely, though he’s flashed here in the past with a T3 in 2023 and a T9 in 2022, even if they came with a pair of MCs in 2025 and 2021. We recommend trying to realize his upside through the placement markets (Top 10) and in DFS, but proceed with caution. He has’t finished in the Top 5 of a PGA event/major since his 3rd at the US Open and he’s yet to finish better than 10th this year.
Min Woo Lee
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP (78), GIR (67), APP 150175 (129), APP AVG (69), BOB 150175 (59)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 150175; Top 25 exclude APP, GIR, APP 150175, APP AVG, SCR, BOB 150175
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 6/12/2/28
PLAYERS Results: 20/54/6
Comp Results: 9/63/MC
Insights: Iron play has been up and down this season, but overall, MWL has played very well, especially over his last 3 events — T2 at Pebble, T12 at Genesis, and T6 at API. The putter is back, gaining strokes to the field in all three of those events, and he’s gained around the green in three of his last four. Off the tee has been pristine, but again, the irons have been inconsistent. He needs to have a great week on Approach in order to compete here, but lost over 4 strokes in that department here in 2024 and almost 6 strokes in 2023. That said, he finished T6 in 2023 thanks to other ways getting it done at Sawgrass including almost 8 gained strokes on the greens and over 4 gained strokes OTT. If that’s what we’re getting here, then placements and DFS are the preferred markets to attack, as well as FRL. For what it’s worth, he hasn’t put together back-to-back positive Approach performances since Players/Memorial last year, so are we really that confident in him to do it this week in a price range surrounded by guys like last week’s winner in Akshay and a 2-time 2026 winner in Gotterup? Ehhh.
Hideki Matsuyama
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 100! exclude OTT (125), OTT/DA AVG (111), GIR (119), BS (123)
Rank: Top 75 exclude OTT, BS; Top 25: TG, APP, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BA, P3, P5
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 2/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 41/28/8/2
PLAYERS Results: MC/6/5/MC/8/MC/22/7/17/23/
Comp Results: 3/11/13/15/19/23/30/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Deki is the type of player that can arise from poor form and win any event, so keep that in mind. Having said that, he’s suffering from somewhat of a hangover after the blown lead at WMPO, earning worse and worse results each week. Coming into this event, he’s lost about 4.5 SG: Approach over his last 2 events, which is a far cry from the iron form he showcased throughout the fall and early PGA season. He’s seemingly fixed the OTT issues, with slight gains in those 2 events, so a return to form with the irons could be a winning formula for him this week. The putter needs to cooperate though, as he’s lost strokes on the greens in 5 of his last 8 trips to Sawgrass. His finishing positions in those 7 events? MC, 6, 5, MC, 8, MC, 22, 7. Price is fine from an upside perspective, but we’d recommend a safety net to go with any outright bets by adding an each way or placement bet to the slip too.
Aaron Rai
Odds: +8000
Stats: Top 100! exclude OTT (109), SCR (118), ARD/SCR AVG (106), PUTT (133), BOB (151), P4 (121)
Rank: Top 75 exclude PUTT, BOB, P4; Top 25: DA, GIR
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 23/28/73/50
PLAYERS Results: 14/35/19
Comp Results: 1/5/17/24/40/71/MC/MC
Insights: With 3 Top 35 finishes (2 Top 20) in his 3 starts at Sawgrass, it’s worth mentioning Rai’s name, but exactly how excited are we to bet him outright in his field? Uh, we’re not. In 4 PGA events this year, he’s lost strokes 3 times off the tee and twice on the greens, and he’s not spiking nearly enough with the irons to overcome those deficiencies. I need to see more to invest in this event, even if the 80/1 odds are inviting. Cheap add to DFS lineup? Ok. Top 20 bet? I wouldn’t absolutely hate it. Otherwise, I’m not seeing it even with the win at Sedgefield, the top comp course this week.
Xander Schauffele
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 100! exclude DA (133), GIR (109), PROX (145), P3 (126)
Rank: Top 75 exclude DA, PROX, P3; Top 25: OTT, SCR, P4
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 24/7/19/41
PLAYERS Results: 72/2/19/MC/MC/MC/2
Comp Results: 1/13/14/19/20/35/61/MC
Insights: We continue to possess a desire to be early on Xander, but we also desire more from X-Man. It’s been a roller coaster seemingly every week since his win at the Baycurrent. It was an overall poor performance at the Farmers, followed by a solid ball-striking and horrible short-game performance in Phoenix. Then, the iron play was bad at Pebble, but the OTT and Putting performance was fantastic. He put it all together in his T7 at Gensis, but then he regressed again at API last week, losing in those same OTT and PUTT areas that he gained so massively in at Pebble. The recent course history is exactly the same with a 72nd last year, T2 in 2024, T19 in 2023, 3 straight missed cuts from 2019-2022, and a T2 in 2018. Talent wise, the price is fair. Form and course history? Lol, good luck figuring that one out. DFS is my most comfortable recommended market right now, as he probably will be fairly contrarian and could be the one to mark the treasure of a big payday.
Adam Scott
Odds: +6000
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude DA (77), GIR (58), ARD (113), ARD/SCR AVG (65), PUTT (59), P4 (73)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude DA, GIR, ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 175200, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 11/4/30/24
PLAYERS Results: MC/45/71/MC/48/12/11/6/12/38/38/19/15/MC/26/MC/54/6/53/8/1/17/MC
Comp Results: 2/7/13/19/30/39/55/63/76/MC/MC
Insights: The stat models love him, but as I (Sammy) have said in the past, are you really THAT confident in a 45-year-old to come out and beat this type of field, at this type of course? Adam Scott hasn’t won since 2020, why is he anything less than 100/1? I mean that, seriously. Sure, he has some placement upset, but winning upside? Cmon man (Watch, he will go out and win now)! Scott hasn’t sniffed a Top 40 here since his T12 in 2019. Since then, 48 in 2021, MC 2022, 71 2023, T45 2024, MC 2025. If your plan is to just blindly bet your stat ranks and models week in and week out, then Adam Scott could be your guy, but I encourage you to apply some real-life context to the situation. This price is absolutely ludicrous, whether he ends up winning or not.
Sepp Straka
Odds: +4500
Stats: Top 100! exclude PROX (103), SCR (140), ARD/SCR AVG (107), PUTT (118), BOB 150175 (166), BA (112), P4 (129)
Rank: Top 75 exclude SCR, BOB 150175, P4; Top 25: TG, APP, APP 175200, APP AVG, BOB, BOB 175200
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 13/50/2/18
PLAYERS Results: 14/16/65/9/MC
Comp Results: 10/15/23/38/39/45/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: In a metaphorical vacuum, Sepp is the type of player that has success at Sawgrass. Historically, he is an accurate driver of the ball and a very strong iron player that can spike on the greens as well. When it all works together, you see Sepp pop up like he did in his T2 finish at Pebble, his 3rd at the Memorial and win at Truist (Philly Cricket). However, when he’s lacking in one or multiple of those areas, usually his upside is T10-T20 range with a MC floor. Looking at his course history, it all checks out. He has 3 Top 16 finishes, all in the 9th-16th range, and in each of those starts, one of the aspects in his game lagged behind the others. In his 2 other starts here, he lost strokes in multiple areas, finishing T65 in 2023 and MC in 2021. He has spiked on the greens just once here in those 5 starts, so I’m wary of his upside this week, but the price is very inviting knowing his player profile.
Cameron Young
Odds: +3000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 150175 (83), ARD (76), PUTT (76)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: TG, OTT, OTT/DA AVG, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 3/7/55/41
PLAYERS Results: 61/54/51/MC
Comp Results: 1/2/9/22/52/60
Insights: With the Clubhouse holding Cam Young tickets last week, we came away pleased with his effort in his T3 finish. He was basically a zero ARG, but he spiked in a major way off the tee and had strong performances with his irons and his putter. In total, he gained almost 11 strokes to the field, just over 9 of them T2G. That’s encouraging ahead of Sawgrass, but he has had next to no success here, finishing no higher than T51 in his 4 starts. That said, he’s had some great performances on comp courses, including a win at Sedgefield, so pick your poison. Since that win, CY has finished 5, 11, T4, T9, T22, T41, T55, T7, T3. A couple down weeks when the irons evaded him at Pebble and Phoenix, but he recovered from those woes at Genesis and API. Being so close last week makes us very interested this week, but the poor course history is a real concern. Is there a better representative of team current form vs team course history this week?