2026 THE PLAYERS Championship - Patio Preview, Key Stats, Tournament Trends & Early Models
Deep analysis for the 2026 THE PLAYERS Championship, including early models, course preview and key stats for your betting and DFS research
Field List
Patio Preview
TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS Stadium Course)
Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida
121 players
Cut: Top 65 + ties
$25M purse is biggest of the year
Winner = $4.5M
Course Architect: Pete Dye
PAR 72: ~7,300 yards
Greens: Bermuda/Poa Trivialis overseed
5,500 sq feet (smaller than average)
Fast
3-Putt Avoidance, especially from distance, harder than Tour average
Scrambling from rough and sand rated difficult here
Fairways 25-30 yards wide
Hitting fairways is crucial
Rough grown out to 4”
Extreme driver usage uptick in 2024 and 2025 - up to 68% from sub-60%
Plenty of hazards
Almost every single hole has water in play
Ample fairway bunkers
Almost every green is surrounded by water and/or sand
4 Par 3s (3.12 scoring average 2025)
2 of hardest 4 holes
All usually play above par
1 super long (230 yards+)
1 super short (<150 yards)
2 about 180-190 yards
10 Par 4s (4.10 scoring average 2025)
Hardest 2 holes 14 and 18
Average distance 430-440 yards
Avoid blow ups on these holes
4 Par 5s (4.68 scoring average 2025)
4 easiest holes (massive birdie rates near 40%)
Look for guys that are capable of birdies on at least 3 of 4 every round
Ball-striking/Irons course more than short game course
GIR 6% below Tour average last year
Hardest to find greens from rough
GIR from fairway about average
Need good long irons and strong wedge play here
Close proximity on irons will provide manageable one-putts
Avoid Water + Avoid 3-putts + Par 5 Scoring = success
Recent Tournament History
2025: Rory McIlroy -12 (67-68-73-68); Playoff Victory over J.J. Spaun
2024: Scottie Scheffler -20 (67-69-68-64); 1 Stroke Victory over Clark, Harman & X
2023: Scottie Scheffler -17 (68-69-65-69); 5 Stroke Victory over Tyrrell Hatton
2022: Cameron Smith -13 (69-71-69-66); 1 Stroke over Anirban Lahiri
2021: Justin Thomas -14 (71-71-64-68); 1 Stroke Victory over Lee Westwood
2019: Rory McIlroy -16 (67-65-70-70); 1 Stroke Victory over Jim Furyk
*First Round Only played in 2020 due to COVID
FOLLOW EACH MEMBER OF THE CLUBHOUSE CREW ON THEIR SOCIALS!
Champ - @Champs311
Sammy - @SammyAvBets
Key Stats
Tier 1
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee
Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa Trivialis)
Par 5 Birdie-or-Better%
Tier 2
Driving Accuracy
Greens-in-Regulation%
Overall Proximity
Scrambling from Rough
Sand Saves
3-Putt Avoidance (Poa Trivialis)
Bogey Avoidance
Tier 3
Rough Proximity
Approach 50-100 yards
Approach 200+ yards
Strokes Gained: Par 4 (451-500)
Strokes Gained: Par 3
Strokes Gained: Total (Difficult-Very Difficult)
Champ’s Course Comps
Sedgefield Country Club
TPC River Highlands
Potomac Avenel
Last 6 THE PLAYERS Tournament Trends
Odds
0-25: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2021, 2019
26-50: 2022
51-100:
101+:
Winner’s Strokes Behind Leader By Round
R1: 5/6 (83%) within 4 shots (0/6 led)
R2: 4/6 (67%) within 3 shots (1/6 led)
R3: 4/6 (67%) within 3 shots (1/6 led)
Winner’s Lead-In Form
6/6 (100%) with a Top 15 finish in their last 4 starts
6/6 (100%) made the cut in their last start
5/6 (83%) with a Top 10 finish in their last 4 starts
5/6 (83%) with a Top 15 finish in their last start
5/6 (83%) with at least 2 Top 10 finishes in their last 4 starts
5/6 (83%) with a Top 5 finish in their last 4 starts
4/6 (67%) with a WIN in their last 4 starts
Winner’s THE PLAYERS History
6/6 (100%) with at least 2 prior appearances
5/6 (83%) with a Top 20 finish in a prior appearance
5/6 (83%) with a made cut in their last appearance prior to their win
4/6 (67%) with a Top 10 finish in a prior appearance
3/6 (50%) with a Top 5 finish in a prior appearance
2/6 (33%) was a past PLAYERS Champion
1/6 (17%) was the defending champion
First Round Leader by Tee Split
AM: 100% (2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2019)
PM: 50% (2025, 2024, 2019)
*results can include instances where FRL from both AM/PM, both get credited with a win.
Early Models
Become a Clubhouse Member to unlock Champ and Sammy’s full models below, including our model weights where applicable
