2026 the Memorial Tournament - Player Deep Dives
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Legend:
Odds: Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Rank: Based on Field Rank
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Muirfield Village Results: Finishes at Muirfield Village Golf Club
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course), The Concession Golf Club & East Lake Golf Club
Ludvig Aberg
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP 175200 (109), SCR (89), ARD/SCR AVG (55), PUTT (52)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude APP 175200, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BA
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 17/4/8/4
Muirfield Village Results: 16/5 (2 of 8 Rounds in 60s; Low: 66)
Comp Results: 16/21/61
Insights: Colonial wasn’t a bad result by any means, but it was another reminder that closing remains the final hurdle for Ludvig. The encouraging part is that every other piece of the game continues trending in the right direction. He’s gained OTT in four straight starts, gained on approach in seven of his last eight, and bounced back with a positive putting week after losing strokes on the greens in three of his previous four starts. Even the around-the-green game, often criticized, was essentially field average last week and has only cost him strokes twice in ten starts this season. Muirfield sets up far better on paper than Colonial. Longer approach shots, a premium on elite ball striking, and a course where he’s already posted finishes of 5th and 16th while gaining strokes across the board in both appearances. Bamford highlighted that Ludvig ranks 3rd in this field in both SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Total at Muirfield, while his 8th and 11th-place GIR finishes over the last two weeks suggest the iron game remains in excellent shape. The question isn’t talent or fit. It’s whether he can finally convert elite form into a victory. Three straight top-10s, two top-5s in his last three starts, and nine consecutive made cuts tell you the breakthrough is close. At 16/1, plenty will be willing to pay for that upside. Whether he makes the final card is another story, check out tomorrow’s newsletter for the end result. -C
Rory McIlroy
Odds: +900
Stats: N/A
Rank: N/A
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 7/19/1/46
Muirfield Village Results: 15/7/18/18/32/MC/8/4/15/57/MC/5/10 (12 of 48 Rds in 60s; Low: 63, FRL 2011 & 2014)
Comp Results: 1/1/1/2/4/6/7/8/9/10/14/16/23/MC
Insights: Muirfield Village remains one of the most puzzling stops on Rory’s schedule. Despite 13 appearances, 10 wins on Bentgrass greens, and a resume that screams course fit, he still hasn’t won here. In fact, Muirfield is the only course Rory has played 10+ times without a victory. The upside is obvious. He continues to gain OTT at an elite level, has gained on approach in seven straight starts at Muirfield, and has gained OTT in 12 of 13 appearances here. Prior to skipping last year, he had gained strokes off the tee, on approach, and with the putter in each of his previous four visits. His current form remains strong as well, highlighted by the Masters victory and a solid T7 at the PGA Championship. The concern is that results here have consistently fallen short of expectations. He hasn’t posted a top-5 at Memorial since 2016, has broken 70 just twice on Sunday in 13 appearances, and his last serious run at the title ended with a closing 75 in 2023 after entering Sunday tied for the lead. If Rory arrives fully motivated, there’s no reason he shouldn’t contend. The question is whether this becomes another “good week” at Muirfield or finally the long-awaited breakthrough. -C
Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +300
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP 200+ (83), PROX (135), APP AVG (54), BOB 175200 (64)
Rank: Top 75 exclude PROX; Top 25 exclude APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BOB 175200
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 3/14/2/2
Muirfield Village Results: 1/1/3/3/22/MC (7 of 22 Rounds in 60s; Low: 67)
Comp Results: 1/2/4/5/5/6/22/29
Insights: Muirfield is a true Scottie track. Demanding tee-to-green excellence, patience, and avoiding big mistakes are exactly what he does better than anyone in the world right now. Two straight wins, three top-3 finishes in his last four appearances, and a staggering gap between himself and the rest of the field. Over the last three Memorials, Scottie sits at -24 cumulative while no other player is better than -9. The underlying form remains exactly what you’d expect. He’s gained in every major strokes-gained category over his last four starts, continues to dominate OTT and on approach, and even the putter has flashed enough recently to remove one of the few remaining concerns. His 3rd at the Nelson, PGA Championship first-round lead, and runner-up finish at the Cadillac all point toward another week where he’s likely to be near the top of the board. Six of his 14 career PGA TOUR wins have come on Bentgrass greens, he’s No. 1 in my custom model (see below), and unlike some weeks where 3/1 feels impossible to justify, this may be one of the few spots where the number actually feels fair. -C
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