Legend:
Odds: Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Rank: Based on Field Rank
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Muirfield Village Results: Finishes at Muirfield Village Golf Club
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course), The Concession Golf Club & East Lake Golf Club
Ludvig Aberg
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP 175200 (109), SCR (89), ARD/SCR AVG (55), PUTT (52)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude APP 175200, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BA
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 17/4/8/4
Muirfield Village Results: 16/5 (2 of 8 Rounds in 60s; Low: 66)
Comp Results: 16/21/61
Insights: Colonial wasn’t a bad result by any means, but it was another reminder that closing remains the final hurdle for Ludvig. The encouraging part is that every other piece of the game continues trending in the right direction. He’s gained OTT in four straight starts, gained on approach in seven of his last eight, and bounced back with a positive putting week after losing strokes on the greens in three of his previous four starts. Even the around-the-green game, often criticized, was essentially field average last week and has only cost him strokes twice in ten starts this season. Muirfield sets up far better on paper than Colonial. Longer approach shots, a premium on elite ball striking, and a course where he’s already posted finishes of 5th and 16th while gaining strokes across the board in both appearances. Bamford highlighted that Ludvig ranks 3rd in this field in both SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Total at Muirfield, while his 8th and 11th-place GIR finishes over the last two weeks suggest the iron game remains in excellent shape. The question isn’t talent or fit. It’s whether he can finally convert elite form into a victory. Three straight top-10s, two top-5s in his last three starts, and nine consecutive made cuts tell you the breakthrough is close. At 16/1, plenty will be willing to pay for that upside. Whether he makes the final card is another story, check out tomorrow’s newsletter for the end result. -C
Rory McIlroy
Odds: +900
Stats: N/A
Rank: N/A
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 7/19/1/46
Muirfield Village Results: 15/7/18/18/32/MC/8/4/15/57/MC/5/10 (12 of 48 Rds in 60s; Low: 63, FRL 2011 & 2014)
Comp Results: 1/1/1/2/4/6/7/8/9/10/14/16/23/MC
Insights: Muirfield Village remains one of the most puzzling stops on Rory’s schedule. Despite 13 appearances, 10 wins on Bentgrass greens, and a resume that screams course fit, he still hasn’t won here. In fact, Muirfield is the only course Rory has played 10+ times without a victory. The upside is obvious. He continues to gain OTT at an elite level, has gained on approach in seven straight starts at Muirfield, and has gained OTT in 12 of 13 appearances here. Prior to skipping last year, he had gained strokes off the tee, on approach, and with the putter in each of his previous four visits. His current form remains strong as well, highlighted by the Masters victory and a solid T7 at the PGA Championship. The concern is that results here have consistently fallen short of expectations. He hasn’t posted a top-5 at Memorial since 2016, has broken 70 just twice on Sunday in 13 appearances, and his last serious run at the title ended with a closing 75 in 2023 after entering Sunday tied for the lead. If Rory arrives fully motivated, there’s no reason he shouldn’t contend. The question is whether this becomes another “good week” at Muirfield or finally the long-awaited breakthrough. -C
Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +300
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP 200+ (83), PROX (135), APP AVG (54), BOB 175200 (64)
Rank: Top 75 exclude PROX; Top 25 exclude APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BOB 175200
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 3/14/2/2
Muirfield Village Results: 1/1/3/3/22/MC (7 of 22 Rounds in 60s; Low: 67)
Comp Results: 1/2/4/5/5/6/22/29
Insights: Muirfield is a true Scottie track. Demanding tee-to-green excellence, patience, and avoiding big mistakes are exactly what he does better than anyone in the world right now. Two straight wins, three top-3 finishes in his last four appearances, and a staggering gap between himself and the rest of the field. Over the last three Memorials, Scottie sits at -24 cumulative while no other player is better than -9. The underlying form remains exactly what you’d expect. He’s gained in every major strokes-gained category over his last four starts, continues to dominate OTT and on approach, and even the putter has flashed enough recently to remove one of the few remaining concerns. His 3rd at the Nelson, PGA Championship first-round lead, and runner-up finish at the Cadillac all point toward another week where he’s likely to be near the top of the board. Six of his 14 career PGA TOUR wins have come on Bentgrass greens, he’s No. 1 in my custom model (see below), and unlike some weeks where 3/1 feels impossible to justify, this may be one of the few spots where the number actually feels fair. -C
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Matt Fitzpatrick
Odds: +2000
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP 175200 (63), PUTT (89), BOB 175200 (70)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude OTT, APP 175200, PUTT, BOB 175200
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 14/52/1/1
Muirfield Village Results: 31/5/9/MC/MC/3/27/68 (7 of 28 Rounds in 60s; Low: 66)
Comp Results: 1/5/9/11/15/MC/MC
Insights: Fitzmagic continues to quietly build one of the stronger profiles in the field. The around-the-green game has been elite over his last four starts, he’s gained on approach in four straight, and while the irons have cooled slightly from the Valspar-Heritage heater that produced back-to-back wins, the overall ball-striking remains excellent. He also bounced back with a positive putting week at the PGA after losing strokes at the Truist. Muirfield has consistently treated him well. He’s gained on approach in seven of eight appearances, gained around the greens in six of eight, and gained with the putter in six of eight. His 3rd-place finish in 2020 and 5th-place finish last year both came from complete tee-to-green performances, while three career low rounds of the day here show the upside is absolutely present. Interestingly, four of his seven career rounds in the 60s at Memorial have come on Sunday, suggesting he’s comfortable chasing on the weekend. With wins already this season at two of the better comp courses in Valspar and Harbour Town, plus a game that continues to travel to demanding, precision-based setups, Fitzy feels much closer to a contender than his 20/1 number may suggest. -C
Tommy Fleetwood
Odds: +2200
Stats: Top 75!! exclude GIR (76), APP 175200 (118), PROX (133), APP AVG (87), PUTT (93), BOB 175200 (115)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 175200, PROX, BOB 175200; Top 25: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB 200+, BA, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 1/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: MC/5/23/52
Muirfield Village Results: 16/20/MC/MC (1 of 12 Rounds in 60s; Low: 69)
Comp Results: 1/3/6/11/16/16/16/20/44
Insights: Tommmyyyyy remains one of the more difficult players to price. The overall profile fits Memorial extremely well—elite tee-to-green, strong around the greens, accurate off the tee, and generally at his best when scoring is difficult rather than a birdie fest. The concern is the iron play. Outside of a massive approach week at the Truist, he’s gained on approach just once in his last four starts, and the proximity numbers from key approach ranges remain weaker than you’d like for a course this demanding. The encouraging part is that Muirfield appears to be growing on him. After two early missed cuts, he’s finished 20th and 16th the last two years while gaining on approach in all four career appearances and posting positive putting weeks in each of the last two. Both Dave Tindall and Ben Coley highlighted how well Fleetwood’s accuracy, short game, and overall tee-to-green profile fit this venue, particularly if the putter cooperates. History also says not to overreact to the missed cut at the PGA Championship. Fleetwood rarely misses weekends and has repeatedly bounced back with strong finishes following those rare setbacks. The upside is obvious, but without a spike week from the irons it’s difficult to envision four rounds good enough to beat Scottie. Feels more like a placement, DFS, or “without Scheffler” type profile than an outright winner at the current number. -C
Chris Gotterup
Odds: +5000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 175200 (90), APP 200+ (102), PROX (115), APP AVG (80)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: TG, OTT, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 10/14/38/25
Muirfield Village Results: MC/MC (73-76-77-73)
Comp Results: 10/61/MC
Insights: Gotterup continues to trend in the right direction with five Top 25 finishes in his last six starts, highlighted by a T10 at the PGA Championship. The current profile is built around an elite driver and a putter that has gained strokes in four straight starts, while the approach game has remained solid throughout 2026 outside of one poor week at the Cadillac Championship. His Memorial history leaves plenty to be desired with missed cuts in both appearances, but context matters. The 2023 start came while splitting time between the Korn Ferry Tour and PGA Tour, while the 2024 appearance came during a stretch where he lost strokes on approach in 11 of 13 starts after his Myrtle Beach victory. Simply put, this is a much different player. The concern this week is the short game, as the around-the-green numbers have been shaky lately and Memorial tends to expose those weaknesses. Still, ranking inside the Top 25 percent in this field for Tee-to-Green, Off-the-Tee, and Birdies or Better gives him plenty of upside. Whether it comes in a placement market or outright remains to be seen, but I expect another strong showing from CG this week. -C
Nicolai Hojgaard
Odds: +6000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 175200 (92), PROX (89), BOB 175200 (96)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: TG, OTT, APP, APP 200+, BOB 200+, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 44/2/23/55
Muirfield Village Results: MC (77-75, 2023)
Comp Results: 55/MC
Insights: NHoj enters Memorial with a quietly solid profile. He’s gained strokes off the tee in four straight starts, gained on approach in four straight as well, and continues to rank among the better ball strikers in this field. The putter has also stabilized after a rough stretch earlier in the season, producing gains in each of his last two starts. The concern is consistency. While the ceiling remains high, the approach play can disappear without warning, and his lone Memorial appearance resulted in a missed cut where he lost over 2.5 strokes on approach. Comp course results offer little encouragement as well. That said, ranking Top 15 in this field both Off-the-Tee and on Approach is notable in a field this strong. He’s a player worth monitoring in short-term markets depending on pairings and draw, but the lack of course history and limited comp success keep me from getting overly aggressive on a player I will continue to circle and monitor throughout 2026. -C
Si Woo Kim
Odds: +2200
Stats: Top 25!!!! exclude TD (34), APP 200+ (47), ARD (29), SCR (41), ARD/SCR AVG (35), PUTT (106), P5 (47)
Rank: Top 75 exclude PUTT; Top 25 exclude TD, APP 200+, ARD, SCR, PUTT, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 2/35/65/4
Muirfield Village Results: 31/15/4/13/9/18/64/41/29/WD/74 (5 of 42 Rds in 60s; Low: 68) Comp Results:10/20/59/MC/WD
Insights: SWK checks nearly every statistical box this week. He ranks 3rd Tee-to-Green, 3rd in Birdies or Better, 4th in Bogey Avoidance, 2nd in Par-4 Scoring, and 1st from the critical 175-200 yard approach range. The ball-striking has been elite all season, and his Memorial history only strengthens the case with gains Off-the-Tee in five straight appearances, Approach gains in five of his last six visits, and Around-the-Green gains in 10 of 11 starts. The only lingering concern is whether last week’s putting performance at the Byron Nelson was a one-week spike or the start of something more. He finished 4th in the field in putting and gained over 2.5 strokes on the greens during Sunday’s final round, numbers we simply haven’t seen consistently from him. Even after failing to close at the Nelson, the bigger takeaway is that he continues to put himself in contention. With 10 Top 20s, 8 Top 10s, and 6 Top 5s already this season, Si Woo once again looks poised to spend the week on the first page of the leaderboard. If the putter remains cooperative, he’s one of the strongest betting profiles in the field and a name I have honed in on this week. -C
Xander Schauffele
Odds: +1400
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude PROX (153), APP AVG (60), ARD (101), ARD/SCR AVG (56), P3 (130)
Rank: Top 75 exclude PROX, P3; Top 25: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, GIR, BS, SCR, PUTT, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, BA, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 7/60/12/9
Muirfield Village Results: 25/8/24/18/11/13/14/14/MC (8 of 34 Rounds in 60s; Low: 66)
Comp Results: 1/2/2/2/4/4/4/5/5/7/12/12/39
Insights: Xander’s Memorial record is the definition of consistency. After missing the cut in his debut, he’s posted eight consecutive Top 25 finishes at Muirfield Village, including six Top 20s. The problem? Despite all that consistency, he’s still searching for his first Top 5 finish at Jack’s Place. The current form is quietly solid. He’s gained Off-the-Tee in four straight starts and the putter showed signs of life at the PGA Championship with his best putting performance since the 2024 Memorial Tournament. The concern lies with the approach game, which has lost strokes in back-to-back starts after peaking at Augusta and The Players, along with an around-the-green game that has been closer to field average than elite throughout 2026. Course history suggests another Top 20 is the most likely outcome. He’s gained on approach in seven of nine Memorial appearances and has consistently navigated one of the Tour’s toughest tests. If the irons return to their April form while the putter remains cooperative, a first serious run at a Memorial title is certainly possible. At 14/1, however, you’re paying for that upside rather than receiving much value. Strong DFS play, intriguing first-round leader candidate, but a tougher sell as an outright at the current number. -C
Cameron Young
Odds: +1200
Stats: Top 25!!!! exclude PUTT (48), BOB 200+ (51), P5 (50)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude PUTT, BOB 200+, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 26/10/1/25
Muirfield Village Results: 25/50/MC/60 (1 of 14 Rounds in 60s; Low: 67, FRL in 2022)
Comp Results: 2/4/19/MC
Insights: Few players enter Memorial with a statistical profile as strong as CY’s. He ranks inside the Top 5 in this field across Tee-to-Green, Off-the-Tee, Total Driving, Proximity, Bogey Avoidance, and both Par-3 and Par-4 scoring. The ball-striking remains elite, and unlike previous years, the short game is no longer a glaring weakness with gains on the greens in six of his last eight starts and steady improvement around the greens throughout the season. The concern is Memorial itself. In four appearances, Young has managed just one round in the 60s and has yet to post a finish better than T25. While he’s consistently gained strokes off the tee here, the approach play has been inconsistent and the putter has historically struggled on these greens. From a course-fit perspective, it still makes sense. His combination of elite driving and long-iron play should translate well to Muirfield Village, particularly if conditions become demanding. However, at 12/1 you’re paying for potential rather than results. The stats say yes, the course history says proceed with caution. For me, it’s a clear hat tip, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he spends most of the week hovering around the first page of the leaderboard. -C