Legend:
Odds - Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Rank: Based on Season Stats Rank in this Field
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
RIV Results: Finishes at Riviera Country Club
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Ridgewood Country Club, Nine Bridges & PGA National Resort (The Champion)
Tommy Fleetwood
Odds: +1800
Stats: Top 100! exclude DD (120), APP 200+ (162), PROX (132)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 200+, PROX; Top 25: TG, APP, GIR, APP 175200, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, BA, P4, P5, ER1, ER2
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 4/41/25/3
RIV Results: 10/20/28/37
Comp Results: 3/4/20/20/MC
Insights: Tommy’s 2026 debut on the PGA Tour went about as you’d imagine. He posted 68 or better all 4 days and finished T4, within 2 strokes of the winner. Feels like classic Tommy, right? The only difference now is that he finally got the monkey of the winless PGA streak off his back at East Lake in August, and he’s won on the DP World Tour since then, too. In fact, since the start of the PGA playoffs and including the win, Tommy has finished Top 5 or better in 7 of 11 professional events across the world. To question his form is a fool’s errand. He’s a great ball striker with a strong short game, and his skillset transfers to most golf courses, even Riviera. He’s played here 4 times and improved with each result, finishing T10 in 2024 despite being a relative zero across OTT, APP, and ARG. He spiked on the greens that year, just like he did in 2023. Given his current ball-striking form and added confidence from not one, but two wins since August, I like Tommy a lot at a challenging course like Riv, especially in wet conditions – in which he has excelled over the last 2 years. Price is fair, solid course fit, excellent form, European conditions at a difficult course…what more could you want as a Tommy backer? -S
Rory McIlroy
Odds: +1200
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 150175 (123), APP 200+ (164), BOB 150175 (115), P3 (109)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 150175, APP 200+, BOB 150175; Top 25: TG, DD, OTT/DD AVG, APP, APP 175200, PROX, BS, ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, BA, P4, P5, ER2
SG Gains: OTT 3/3, APP 2/3, ARD 2/3, PUTT 2/3 (No SG for AUS Open)
FORM: 14/33/3/14
RIV Results: 24/29/10/MC/5/4/20/20
Comp Results: 1/2/13/21/22/40/56/59/70/WD/MC/MC
Insights: The underlying profile still screams contender. He ranks in top-25 percent of field across nearly every meaningful ball-striking and scoring category, highlighted by elite off-the-tee dominance and strong proximity and birdie production from key ranges. Riviera has treated him well, with multiple Top-10s and five finishes of T20 or better, and his four career wins on Poa greens confirm comfort on this surface. Recent form remains steady rather than explosive, but the data positions him as the clear second-strongest player in the field behind only Scottie. The only lingering question is closing ability—he hasn’t won on the PGA Tour since completing the Grand Slam—but statistically, he continues to generate the type of tee-to-green advantage that puts him firmly in the mix come Sunday. -C
Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +300
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 175200 (110), APP 200+ (132), PROX (129), APP AVG (81)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 200+, PROX; Top 25: TG, OTT, DD, OTT/DD AVG, GIR, BS, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, BA, P4, P5, ER2
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 4/3/1/4
RIV Results: 10/12/7/20/30/MC
Comp Results: N/A
Insights: Excuse my French, but Scottie has played like shit for a full round in the last 2 events and still managed to put himself in the discussion in each of those events on Sunday. Let’s look at the numbers. He lost over 2 strokes to the field in the first round of the WMPO, just to follow that up with +5.3, +2.8 and +5.7. Sound familiar? It is, because I wrote about this last week. Well, he did it AGAIN at Pebble, losing 3.75 strokes to the field in Round 1, just to follow it up with +3.5, +2.9, and +6.8. All Scottie has to do is stay at even par on Thursdays and he’s going to be able to take any event down, no matter the field or the course. Which brings up a good point, Scottie is relatively courseproof, but if you dig deep enough, you will see he’s yet to win on a Poa surface. All his wins are on Bermuda or Bent. Just something to consider. In 6 starts at Riv, his best finish is T7. He was T10 in 2024 despite losing a half stroke with his irons and over 4 strokes on the greens. Since then, he’s fixed his putting. Also since then – 2 years ago – he’s lost strokes with his irons in just ONE!!!! event (BMW Champ 2024 @ Castle Pines). At 4/1, maybe even +350, I’d consider solo-barreling Scottie here, but it’s hard to do that if you like even 2-3 other golfers enough to want to invest in them this week. I don’t hate a Top 5 (ties pay full) at -140 or better. Top 10 can be a parlay piece if you like someone else to place with minus odds. -S
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More Player Deep Dives below for Bettor Clubhouse Subscribers including Patrick Cantlay, Chris Gotterup, Hideki Matsuyama and more!
Patrick Cantlay
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 75!! exclude DD (99), OTT/DD AVG (86), PUTT (83), BOB 150175 (77)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: TG, APP, GIR, APP 17200, APP 200+, APP AVG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB, BOB AVG, BA, P3, P4
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 14/MC/13/30
RIV Results: 4/3/33/15/17/15/4/MC/MC
Comp Results: 8
Insights: PC’s profile remains one of the most complete in the field, ranking top-25 percent in the field across tee-to-green, approach, GIR, scrambling, and overall scoring efficiency. RIV HAS historically suited his precision-based game, with multiple Top-5 finishes and consistent contention, including a near win in 2024 where he led through 36 holes. He’s gained strokes in every category recently, particularly around the green and on approach, reinforcing his elite baseline. The only missing piece has been spike performance off the tee and with the putter—if either heats up, he can get to the first page of the leaderboard. A win? Possible but hasn’t lifted a trophy since 2022 so add some placements in there for sweaty assurance as he tries to follow in the footsteps of Collin last week another California native. -C
Chris Gotterup
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 200+ (137), PUTT (92)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 200+; Top 25: TG, OTT, DD, OTT/DD AVG, APP, APP 175200, ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, P5, ER1
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 37/1/18/1
RIV Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 35/MC
Insights: Chris Gotterup is an enigma. Not in a bad way, but his stat profile is just wild. A two-time winner already this year, Gotterup took down Sony while losing strokes on approach, and then he won in Phoenix while losing strokes on the greens. That being said, he tends to spike in the ball-striking department more often than not and has proven the ability to marry that with a strong short game in his win at the Scottie Open and his 3rd the following week at the Open Championship. From a profile standpoint, Gotterup stands out as a player that would fit well at Riviera; he is strong off the tee, scores on Par 5s, has elite club head speed and pairs all of that with top-20 iron play and scrambling. The issues this week are the putter on POA surfaces and the lack of course experience, which – as you should have noticed in Monday’s newsletter – is important. For what it’s worth, Gotterup has just 4 starts on west-coast Poa surfaces. He finished no better than T18 in any of those events, and he lost a decent amount of strokes in each of those starts (-2.7 2026 Pebble, -2.1 2026 Torrey, -1.7 2025 Torrey, -1.2 2024 Torrey). I initially liked the thought of Gotterup this week, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he won, but the lack of Riv history will keep me off. -S
Ryan Fox
Odds: +15000
Stats: Top 100! exclude PROX (123), BOB 150175 (123), BOB 175200 (127), P5 (104), ER1 (102)
Rank: Top 75 exclude PROX, BOB 150175, BOB 175200, ER1; Top 25: OTT, DD, OTT/DD AVG, APP 150175, APP 200+, BOB 200+, ER2
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 24/24/45/27
RIV Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 35/MC
Insights: Mr. Fox enters Riviera as a classic high-upside sleeper whose elite driving and improving short game give him a path to outperform his odds. He ranks top-25 percent in the field in off-the-tee metrics, distance, and long-iron approach ranges that are critical at Riviera, and recent form shows steady gains across all four strokes-gained categories, including putting. While historical data flags inconsistency around the green, his recent win at the Alfred Dunhill Links and strong putting trend suggest meaningful improvement. As a bomber making his Riviera debut, he avoids the scar tissue many players carry here, and his proven ability to win on POA greens adds intrigue. At this price, Fox profiles as a dangerous early-round threat with legitimate upside to contend if the approach play remains sharp. -C
Matt Fitzpatrick
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude ARD (99), SCR (132), ARD/SCR AVG (116), PUTT (111), P3 (87)
Rank: Top 75 exclude SCR, ARD/SCR AVG; Top 25: TG, OTT, OTT/DD AVG, APP, GIR, APP 150175, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P4, P5, ER1
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 14/9/63/1
RIV Results: MC/MC/5/30
Comp Results: 21/68/MC
Insights: Fitzy, Fitzy, Fitzy. The major champion’s tee-to-green game is elite, highlighted by a historic Top 5 at Riviera and a past win on POA greens, giving confidence in his approach. The short game and putting not so much. Do we back him again for a third straight week after an opening 29 at WMPO and one up and down from a bunker short of a Top 10 cash last week? The form is a bit of a rollercoaster similar to his in round play, but at +4000, the price offers solid value for a player capable of turning elite ball-striking into a late Sunday charge. He just needs a small adjustment around the greens could easily turn near misses to a podium finish. -C
Ryo Hisatsune
Odds: +9000
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude DD (84), OTT/DD AVG (51), APP (53), APP 175200 (66)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: TG, OTT, GIR, APP 150175, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS, ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB 150175, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, BA, P3, ER2
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 8/10/2/44
RIV Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: MC/MC
Insights: Ryo comes into the Genesis Invitational with a ton of underlying firepower, even if Riviera is untested territory for him. His ball-striking is elite—gaining off the tee, on approach, and around the green in all four recent starts—and his putting has been strong in three of four, showing he can close when the opportunity arises. Recent form backs it up: a runner-up at Torrey, a Top 10 in Phoneix, and multiple rounds in the 60s show he can go low against tough fields. The odds at +9000 reflect his limited Riviera experience and the fact he isn’t top of mind for many bettors, but his season-long stats rank him Top 50 across nearly every key category tested this week. If he handles the debut pressure, which on paper is the same field as last week, Mr. Water Bottle is a serious long-shot play—especially in round matchups or as a sneaky outright option that has to become more calming during this torrid three start stretch. -C
Hideki Matsuyama
Odds: +2200
Stats: Top 75!! exclude OTT (140), DD (99), OTT/DD AVG (120), BS (115), BOB 150175 (92)
Rank: Top 75 exclude OTT, OTT/DD AVG; Top 25: TG, APP, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BA, P3, P5
SG Gains: OTT 1/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 8/2/11/13
RIV Results: 1/MC/39/MC/5/9/MC/11/4/23
Comp Results: 3/15/18/30/WD/WD
Insights: Hideki is going to be a popular pick this week for a few reasons. First, he has excellent course history, posting an incredible comeback win here in 2024 along with 3 other Top-10 finishes. He has putted pretty well here in 3 of his last 4 starts here, and putted well last week at Pebble on similar greens, gaining 3.9 strokes to the field. Second, his form is excellent, specifically on approach and around the greens. Very few do it better than Deki in those areas, especially when he’s on. Third, the price is solid in a small field with a very small cut. The issue I have this week is the driver. He’s lost strokes with off the tee in 3 straight events, and those issues cost him the win in Phoenix 2 weeks ago. This isn’t a short term issue, either. He’s been wayward off the tee dating back to the Truist in May. Considering how hard it is to hit fairways here, it’s just not a fit for me this week, even if he won here in 2024. Maybe the expected soft conditions will help him a bit in this department, but I need to see more consistency with the driver to bet him at a place like Riv. -S
Sepp Straka
Odds: +4500
Stats: Top 75!! exclude DD (99), PROX (92), PUTT (79), BOB 150175 (135), BA (80)
Rank: Top 75 exclude BOB 150175; Top 25: TG, OTT, APP, APP 175200, APP AVG, ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 2/18/MC/3
RIV Results: MC/45/15/43/MC
Comp Results: 1/5/11/27/33/MC/MC
Insights: Sepp’s form comes and goes, but he has come on in a big way since being cut at the Amex. He finished T18 at WMPO despite a poor putting performance and a bad approach round on Friday, and then he finished T2 last week despite losing over a stroke on the greens in Round 1 and about 2.5 strokes on Approach on Saturday and Sunday. Maybe the poor iron play was wind related? Because Sepp is typically very strong in this department. That being said, he hasn’t been able to put it together at Riv. In 5 appearances, his best finish is a T15. With that, he missed the cut twice and finished outside the Top 40 two more times. Furthermore, his around-the-green play, while good recently, is a concern here, as is his lack of distance off the tee. Not a great course fit seemingly, but I wouldn’t argue with a Top 10 placement bet in an attempt to invest in his upside with his irons. -S