Legend:
Odds - Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Rank: Based on Field Rank
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Byron Nelson Results: Finishes at the Byron Nelson (TPC Craig Ranch Only)
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Olympia Fields Country Club (North Course), TPC Scottsdale & Glen Oaks Club
Brooks Koepka
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 75!! exclude SCR (148), ARD/SCR AVG (98), PUTT (141), BA (89), P3 (81), P4 (104), ER1 (100)
Rank: Top 75 exclude SCR, PUTT; Top 25 exclude SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BA, P3, P4, ER1
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 55/11/12/MC
Byron Nelson Results: MC (71-70, 2021)
Comp Results: 1/1/3/41/42/49/MC
Insights: Brooks is a headliner almost everywhere he tees it up, but especially this week in a weaker-field Byron Nelson. For me, TPC Scottsdale and Brooks go hand in hand, and with Scottsdale showing up as a comp course, he immediately enters the conversation. The lone start at TPC Craig Ranch came pre-renovation back in 2021, so I’m far more focused on the current state of his game than the missed cut. The biggest takeaway lately? The driver is starting to look like vintage Brooks again. He’s gained OTT in 4 straight starts and looked dangerous at both majors this season. The approach play has been more volatile after an electric start to his PGA TOUR return, but the ceiling is still obvious — gaining over 3.5 strokes on approach in Round 1 of the PGA Championship before cooling off over the weekend. The issue remains the putter. It’s the clear reason he still doesn’t have a Top 5 this season, with too many elite iron weeks not fully cashing in. That said, there were encouraging signs last week as the putter quietly gained over 1.5 strokes across the final 54 holes after a rough Thursday on the greens. At 25/1, the number sits right on the edge for me, while anything sub-20 becomes more hat-tip territory. You’re betting on the possibility that one of these spike rounds finally turns into four complete days. I’d be shocked if Brooks doesn’t post one of the low rounds of the week — the real question is whether he can sustain it long enough to truly contend Sunday or settle for another backdoor Top 20. -C
Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +170
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 200+ (85), PROX (132)
Rank: Top 75 exclude PROX; Top 25 exclude APP 200+, PROX, BOB 175200
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 14/2/2/2
Byron Nelson Results: 1/5/15/47
Comp Results: 1/1/2/3/3/7/20/25/MC
Insights: The odds board is wild this week. Scottie is just sitting there sub-2:1, and there are only 3 other players under 30/1. In fact, only 10 players are shorter than 50/1 in this field. All this to say, oddsmakers are calling their shot on a Scottie win here, and it makes all the sense in the world. He’s been striping the shit out of the ball, gaining over 9 strokes to the field in the ball-striking department in 3 of his last 4 event — including last week at the PGA. His biggest downfall was on the greens, where he lost more than 1.5 strokes over the course of the weekend, but those greens were objectively ridiculous. He won’t see that this week at the “Bunny Ranch” (still waiting for a Playboy sponsorship). On top of the typical ball-striking form, Scottie is the defending champ here after winning by 8 strokes last year (-31). He gained almost 13 strokes APP per RickRunGood’s numbers, while gaining almost 5.5 OTT and over 6.5 on the greens. His only negative was -1.3 ARG, so he could have scored even better, which is a scary thought. If there was ever a week to play Without Scottie markets or each-ways, it’s this one. Or, you could just not bet the event like I’m considering doing. All signs point toward a Scottie win, but given the clownish birdie-fest set up here, anyone could get hot and flirt with a score somewhere -25 to -30 — especially with benign weather conditions. -S
Jordan Spieth
Odds: +1400
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 175200 (135), APP 200+ (134), PROX (148), APP AVG (110)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG; Top 25: TG, DD, OTT/DD AVG, BS, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, BA, P3, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 1/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 18/52/18/33
Byron Nelson Results: 4/MC/2/9
Comp Results: 2/4/4/6/6/7/9/34/60/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Speef is one of the toughest clicks on the board this week because the course history and Texas narrative are almost impossible to ignore. TPC Craig Ranch has clearly brought out his best: 11 rounds in the 60s across 14 career rounds here, a runner-up, another Top 5, and a closing 62 last year that reminded everyone of a joyous Spieth experience. The concern remains the same as it has for most of 2026: can the irons hold up for four straight rounds? The OTT play has been very solid since March and the short game still flashes elite-level saves, but the approach numbers remain shaky compared to the elite names priced around him. Last week at Aronimink was encouraging though, gaining over half a stroke on approach while also posting his best around-the-green performance of the season during the pressure of a career grand slam attempt. At Craig Ranch, Spieth has historically gained heavily OTT and with his irons while the putter tends to hover around field average — which is honestly all he needs on a course where birdie chances come in bunches. He still hasn’t posted a Top 10 this season, a trend that goes all the way back to the 2025 Memorial Tournament, but this is one of the clearest opportunities yet to change that. The question is whether +1400 properly reflects his actual win equity versus the comfort of the course fit and home-state narrative. I lean more placement/DFS cornerstone than an outright, but wouldn’t be shocked if he was firmly in the mix on Sunday again. -C
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More Player Deep Dives below for Bettor Clubhouse Subscribers including Pierceson Coody, Ryo Hisatsune, Si Woo Kim, Davis Thompson and Michael Thorbjornsen!
Pierceson Coody
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 100! exclude PROX (104), ARD (148), ARD/SCR AVG (115), LR1 (117), ER2 (153)
Rank: Top 75 exclude ARD, ER2; Top 25: OTT, DD, OTT/DD AVG, GIR, APP 200+, APP AVG, BS, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, P3, P4
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 1/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: MC/24/38/16
Byron Nelson Results: 25/MC/MC/MC
Comp Results: 10
Insights: The Texas boy returns to Texas this week, but he’s not really on much radar — as much as I would like him to be. Coody was on a roll earlier this season, and it was one of which I took notice, but there is a simple question you have to ask yourself when considering your player pool this week: can this player AVERAGE at least 6 birdies a day to give himself a chance to win or place in an absolute birdie fest? If it was February 19th, I would have said yes, Coody can do that. However, it’s May, and Coody has lost significant strokes on approach in 3 of his last 4 events. Not to mention, the putter has been a roller coaster, and his ARG play is very consistently a negative. There’s too much concern here, especially when you consider his best finish is a T25 — which came last year. His 3 other appearances here were all missed cuts. No thanks. -S
Ryo Hisatsune
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 175200 (125), SCR (117), ARD/SCR AVG (93), PUTT (89), BOB 175200 (141), BA (77)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: TG, OTT, OTT/DD AVG, APP, GIR, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P4, P5, ER2
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 1/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 35/45/65/60
Byron Nelson Results: MC/13
Comp Results: 10/MC/MC
Insights: Ryooooo quietly is one of the more interesting upside names in this weaker Byron Nelson field. The recent results don’t jump off the page, but context matters with those coming mostly against elevated and major-level fields. Back at a standard PGA Tour stop, the profile suddenly looks a lot more appealing. Ryo already showed he can score here with a T13 in 2024 that included a weekend 132 — second best in the field behind Pendrith — and four of his six career rounds at TPC Craig Ranch have been in the 60s, including a closing 64. The ball-striking upside is still very real too. It was on show again last week at the PGA with a share of the first-round lead after a 67 and posted one of his best OTT performances of the season. The concern, as always, is whether the putter can cooperate long enough in a pure birdie-fest. The good news is he already proved here he can gain on these greens. If that repeats, the path to another Top 10 — and potentially hanging around the first page Sunday — is absolutely there. Gives me a SWK-lite profile at a much friendlier price this week. -C
Beau Hossler
Odds: +8000
Stats: Top 100! exclude DD (120), OTT/DD AVG (101), APP (112), GIR (106), PROX (118), BS (131), ER2 (135)
Rank: Top 75 exclude BS; Top 25: ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, BA, P3, P4
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 3/49/21/MC
Byron Nelson Results: 65/52/17/MC
Comp Results: 14/17/32/39/41/66/MC/MC
Insights: The former Longhorn returns to the Lone Star State this week, but like Coody, there are questions in Hossler’s game that make me more pessimistic than optimistic about his return to Texas. As I mentioned above — can Hossler average 6 birdies per round this week? Well, I could actually see it with Beau given his tremendous putting ability, but he’s going to need more than just the putter. He showcased his ceiling in Myrtle Beach with a T3 finish while gaining in every major stat category, which is great to see. Not great to see is his lack of ceiling finishes the rest of this season and historically on this course. In other words, that T3 in Myrtle was his first T10 finish on Tour since last July, and in 4 starts at TPC Craig Ranch, his best finish is T17. Not to mention, he’s never gained strokes on Approach at this course, which you’re obviously going to need in order to go lower than the lowest peg in a game of Limbo. -S
Si Woo Kim
Odds: +1200
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude DD (111), OTT/DD AVG (65), SCR (55), PUTT (121), P5 (59)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude DD, OTT/DD AVG, SCR, PUTT, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 35/65/4/3
Byron Nelson Results: 15/13/2/MC/55
Comp Results: 3/12/21/23/26/31/43/50/62/67/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Iron Man will tee it up AGAIN this week, as he will play in his 4th straight event and 15th of the season. The only other time he played 4 straight weeks this year was back at the beginning of the season when he played 6 weeks in a row. For what it’s worth, he finished T3 at the WMPO in his 4th event during that run. The Dallas resident tends to play here every year, and he’s showcased a decently-high floor here of late. After going T55 and MC here in 2021 and 2022, he’s gone T2, T13 and T15 over the last 3 years. That T2 included nearly a +3.5 on the greens, while the T13 and T15 were both losses with the putter — totaling nearly 4.5 strokes lost combined. That’s the biggest concern for him every week and is arguably the reason he doesn’t have a win on tour yet this year despite ample T5s —4 to be exact. Given the putting issues, the price tag isn’t the most inviting, but SWK might be my favorite option at the top of the board. SWK vs Jordy will be an interesting debate. -S
Matti Schmid
Odds: +8500
Stats: Top 125 exclude TG, APP, APP 175200, SCR, P3, P4
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP, APP 175200, APP AVG, P3, P4; Top 25: P5, ER2
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 4/MC/74/40
Byron Nelson Results: MC/MC/MC
Comp Results: MC/MC/MC
Insights: Schmiddy turned plenty of heads last week with the surprise run at the PGA, but digging deeper shows just how much of it came from the flat stick. Nearly 70% of his total strokes gained came via putting, including one of his best putting performances of the season, and asking for that to repeat in a Byron Nelson birdie-fest feels dangerous. The upside flashes are real — last week, 9th at Cognizant, and all four of his Top 20s this season have actually gone for Top 10s — but the overall profile is volatile. Course history at TPC Craig Ranch doesn’t help either with three straight missed cuts and only half of those rounds breaking 70. Even a steady four-round performance likely isn’t enough this week with how low scoring tends to get. There’s enough talent to respect the ceiling, especially after last Sunday’s back-nine charge, but this feels more like a wait-and-see spot than a buy-high moment. Honestly more interested in him next week at Colonial where he finished runner-up last year. -C
Davis Thompson
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 200+ (141), PUTT (154), BOB (123), BOB 200+ (116), BOB AVG (112), P5 (129)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 200+, PUTT; Top 25: TG, OTT, APP, GIR, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, BS, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BA, P3, P4
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 13/14/MC/46
Byron Nelson Results: MC/70
Comp Results: 15/36/64/MC
Insights: DT is a very interesting shout given that he’s won a birdie fest before — back in 2024 when we cashed in on him at the John Deer Classic. That said, when I pose the question, I don’t think this version of DT can average 6 birdies a day. Coming into this event, DT is 115th IN THIS FIELD in Bent putting, 106th in BOB%, 114th in App 200+ and 116th in P5 BOB%. Now, he’s top 20 in SG App, SG T2G, GIR% and Bogey Avoidance over his last 24 rounds, but I would put DT more around a -15 to -18, which isn’t going to cut it this week. -S
Michael Thorbjornsen
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP (108), APP 175200 (150), PUTT (134), BOB (76), BOB 175200 (82), P3 (94)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 175200; Top 25: DD, OTT/DD AVG, APP 200+, PROX, BS, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BA, ER1, LR2
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: MC/53/33/MC
Byron Nelson Results: 33 (64-73-66-69, 2025)
Comp Results: 3/74
Insights: Thor feels like one of the tougher young talents to buy this week despite the obvious upside. The profile still flashes elite traits — distance, OTT upside, strong short game metrics, and a 64 here last year that immediately put him near the top of the board. But the overall trend entering Craig Ranch feels shaky for a pure birdie-fest setup. The putter has completely cooled off since April, including one of his worst putting performances of the season last week, and the irons cratered at the PGA as well. Around-the-green play has quietly been one of the few stabilizers in 2026, but you typically need to go nuclear with scoring at Byron Nelson and we just haven’t seen Thor gain across the board since March. Only one Top 10 this season — the 3rd at WMPO — keeps the ceiling conversation alive, but right now this feels more like a “respect the talent” spot than a true breakout week. Hat tip for upside, but much closer to fade territory at 35/1. -C