2026 The CJ Cup Byron Nelson - Player Deep Dives
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Legend:
Odds - Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Rank: Based on Field Rank
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Byron Nelson Results: Finishes at the Byron Nelson (TPC Craig Ranch Only)
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Olympia Fields Country Club (North Course), TPC Scottsdale & Glen Oaks Club
Brooks Koepka
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 75!! exclude SCR (148), ARD/SCR AVG (98), PUTT (141), BA (89), P3 (81), P4 (104), ER1 (100)
Rank: Top 75 exclude SCR, PUTT; Top 25 exclude SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BA, P3, P4, ER1
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 55/11/12/MC
Byron Nelson Results: MC (71-70, 2021)
Comp Results: 1/1/3/41/42/49/MC
Insights: Brooks is a headliner almost everywhere he tees it up, but especially this week in a weaker-field Byron Nelson. For me, TPC Scottsdale and Brooks go hand in hand, and with Scottsdale showing up as a comp course, he immediately enters the conversation. The lone start at TPC Craig Ranch came pre-renovation back in 2021, so I’m far more focused on the current state of his game than the missed cut. The biggest takeaway lately? The driver is starting to look like vintage Brooks again. He’s gained OTT in 4 straight starts and looked dangerous at both majors this season. The approach play has been more volatile after an electric start to his PGA TOUR return, but the ceiling is still obvious — gaining over 3.5 strokes on approach in Round 1 of the PGA Championship before cooling off over the weekend. The issue remains the putter. It’s the clear reason he still doesn’t have a Top 5 this season, with too many elite iron weeks not fully cashing in. That said, there were encouraging signs last week as the putter quietly gained over 1.5 strokes across the final 54 holes after a rough Thursday on the greens. At 25/1, the number sits right on the edge for me, while anything sub-20 becomes more hat-tip territory. You’re betting on the possibility that one of these spike rounds finally turns into four complete days. I’d be shocked if Brooks doesn’t post one of the low rounds of the week — the real question is whether he can sustain it long enough to truly contend Sunday or settle for another backdoor Top 20. -C
Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +170
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 200+ (85), PROX (132)
Rank: Top 75 exclude PROX; Top 25 exclude APP 200+, PROX, BOB 175200
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 14/2/2/2
Byron Nelson Results: 1/5/15/47
Comp Results: 1/1/2/3/3/7/20/25/MC
Insights: The odds board is wild this week. Scottie is just sitting there sub-2:1, and there are only 3 other players under 30/1. In fact, only 10 players are shorter than 50/1 in this field. All this to say, oddsmakers are calling their shot on a Scottie win here, and it makes all the sense in the world. He’s been striping the shit out of the ball, gaining over 9 strokes to the field in the ball-striking department in 3 of his last 4 event — including last week at the PGA. His biggest downfall was on the greens, where he lost more than 1.5 strokes over the course of the weekend, but those greens were objectively ridiculous. He won’t see that this week at the “Bunny Ranch” (still waiting for a Playboy sponsorship). On top of the typical ball-striking form, Scottie is the defending champ here after winning by 8 strokes last year (-31). He gained almost 13 strokes APP per RickRunGood’s numbers, while gaining almost 5.5 OTT and over 6.5 on the greens. His only negative was -1.3 ARG, so he could have scored even better, which is a scary thought. If there was ever a week to play Without Scottie markets or each-ways, it’s this one. Or, you could just not bet the event like I’m considering doing. All signs point toward a Scottie win, but given the clownish birdie-fest set up here, anyone could get hot and flirt with a score somewhere -25 to -30 — especially with benign weather conditions. -S
Jordan Spieth
Odds: +1400
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 175200 (135), APP 200+ (134), PROX (148), APP AVG (110)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG; Top 25: TG, DD, OTT/DD AVG, BS, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, BA, P3, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 1/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 18/52/18/33
Byron Nelson Results: 4/MC/2/9
Comp Results: 2/4/4/6/6/7/9/34/60/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Speef is one of the toughest clicks on the board this week because the course history and Texas narrative are almost impossible to ignore. TPC Craig Ranch has clearly brought out his best: 11 rounds in the 60s across 14 career rounds here, a runner-up, another Top 5, and a closing 62 last year that reminded everyone of a joyous Spieth experience. The concern remains the same as it has for most of 2026: can the irons hold up for four straight rounds? The OTT play has been very solid since March and the short game still flashes elite-level saves, but the approach numbers remain shaky compared to the elite names priced around him. Last week at Aronimink was encouraging though, gaining over half a stroke on approach while also posting his best around-the-green performance of the season during the pressure of a career grand slam attempt. At Craig Ranch, Spieth has historically gained heavily OTT and with his irons while the putter tends to hover around field average — which is honestly all he needs on a course where birdie chances come in bunches. He still hasn’t posted a Top 10 this season, a trend that goes all the way back to the 2025 Memorial Tournament, but this is one of the clearest opportunities yet to change that. The question is whether +1400 properly reflects his actual win equity versus the comfort of the course fit and home-state narrative. I lean more placement/DFS cornerstone than an outright, but wouldn’t be shocked if he was firmly in the mix on Sunday again. -C
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