Legend:
Odds - Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Last Season Stats
Rank: Based on Last Season Stats Rank in this Field
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Tournament Results: Finishes at The American Express
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: TPC Scottsdale, TPC Summerlin & Trinity Forest Golf Club
Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +300
Stats: Top 25!!!! excludeDD (44)
Rank: Top 10!!! exclude DD (26), OTT/DD AVG (12), ARD (11), PUTT (16)
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 4/1/4/1
Amex Results: 17/11/25/3 (13 of 16 Rds in 60s; Low: 64)
Comp Results: 1/1/3/7/25/35/74/MC/MC/MC
Insights: The man, the myth, the legend…Scottie Scheffler is back. Making his first start of the season, Scottie returns to La Quinta Country Club for the first time since 2024 — where he has been somewhat mortal compared to his baseline on Tour of late. He has finished in the Top 10 just once in his 5 starts here dating back to 2020, but how much does that really matter now? We would argue probably not much. This guy has finished in the Top 8 or better in every tournament he has played since the Players in March of 2025, so the form is absolutely not in question. Could he be rusty having played in just 1 event since September? Sure…but it’s Scottie we’re talking about here. Every time you try to count him out over the past couple of years — whether due to price or a potentially poor course fit — he seems to find himself at the top of the leaderboard anyway. Having said that, while 3/1 seems like a very fair price in this field, this tournament has been known to be a long shot’s paradise, so we aren’t feeling a need to rush to bet him at this number. The method of attack is relatively simple from our eyes, if you want to deploy a single-barrel approach this week, it’s hard to talk anyone off Scottie at any course, especially if Rory isn’t in the field, but if you want to sprinkle a bunch of long shots this week, then it’s probably best to avoid Scottie outright and attack his round matchups/3-balls instead.
Ludvig Aberg
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 100! exclude GIR (114), ARD (129), ARD/SCR AVG (105), BA (108), P3 (131), ER1 (111), ER2 (130)
Rank: Top 75 exclude ARD, P3; Top 25: OTT, DD, OTT/DD AVG, APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB 175200, BOB AVG
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 3/23/20/21
Amex Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 13
Insights: The 26-year-old opens 2026 in a steady spot after finishing 2025 with eight straight Top 25s, capped by a 3rd at the DP World Tour Championship where a closing 66 left him one shot shy of a playoff. This is new territory at La Quinta, which adds some uncertainty, but the form is real. At 25/1, the number is fair for the 18th-ranked player in the world and almost certainly shorter next week at Torrey. No need to force it—calm confidence, respect the unknowns, and an overall outlook that 2026 shapes up as a strong year with wins and a potential first major incoming.
Russell Henley
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 100! exclude DD (172), OTT/DD AVG (133), BOB 175200 (102), BOB 200+ (173)
Rank: Top 75 exclude DD, OTT/DD AVG, BOB 200+; Top 25: TG, APP, GIR, APP 150175, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB, BOB 150175, BA, P3, P4, ER1, ER2
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 19/19/2/15
Amex Results: 14/MC/MC/MC/49/56 (5 last 16 Rds in 60s; Low: 65)
Comp Results: 10/15/16/21/24/27/30/33/35/37/59/67/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: The Russ Bus drives its way to the American Express for the first time since 2022, when he finished T-14 despite losing over 1.5 strokes on the greens. That result was the first time he finished in the Top 45 of this event in 7 starts, which sparks a bit of concern. However, his form is much better than his course history, as Russ has finished Top 20 or better in every event since missing the cut at the PGA Championship in May (9 events). That includes his T-19 finish last week in Hawaii, which is a crucial aspect ahead of the AmEx. We like guys this week that played in Hawaii already, even if they missed the cut, as they were at least able to get the competitive juices flowing again prior to this event (check out our Trends section in the Monday newsletter for more on this). Ultimately, given his poor course history and the success of long shots at this event, we’re not inclined to bet Henley outright this week, but a placement bet on Top 20 at plus-odds is mighty appealing if you want some exposure to the Bus.
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Sam Burns
Odds: +3000
Stats: Top 100! exclude TG (107), APP (127), GIR (118), APP 175200 (118), APP 200+ (150), PROX (113), APP AVG (115)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP, APP 200+, APP AVG; Top 25: PUTT, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB AVG, P4, ER1
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 11/13/7/4
Amex Results: 29/6/11/6/18 (12 last 16 Rds in 60s; Low: 61)
Comp Results: 3/6/14/20/22/34/39/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MDF
Insights: Sam Burns rolls in with a rock-solid streak of 17 straight made cuts dating back to Augusta, and when the irons and putter sync, trophies usually follow. The history here is a mixed bag—approach play has lagged in 3 of 5 starts, but he’s gained on the greens every time, which keeps him relevant. During this cut-making run, the blueprint is clear: when Burns gains with both APP and the flat stick, he’s contending (BMW, U.S. Open, Canadian). Comfort level is high, though he typically shakes off rust at Kapalua before fully firing on the West Coast. At 30/1, the number is fair for current form and upside. Popular OAD play, sure—but early season, burn baby burn.
Patrick Cantlay
Odds: +3000
Stats: Top 100! exclude BOB 200+ (125), P3 (116), P5 (138)
Rank: Top 75 exclude P5; Top 25: TG, OTT, OTT/DD AVG, APP, GIR, APP 150175, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, BOB, P4, ER2
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 30/2/30/9
Amex Results: 5/52/26/9/9/MC (12 last 16 Rds in 60s; Low: 62)
Comp Results: 1/2/2/2/2/8/MC
Insights: Patrick Cantlay — the California kid we can’t help ourselves to form a strong opinion on. New year, same questions. He hasn’t skipped Hawaii/January golf since 2019, and when he did, the irons showed up (+3.02 APP) but the putter went ice-cold — a familiar theme here, losing strokes on the greens in 4 of 6 starts at this stop. Yes, he gained with the flat stick last year (+1.57 on Bermuda/Poa), but is that a trend or just a blip? The irons have been streaky and the short game hasn’t inspired confidence, and while pro-am conditions can mask some flaws, Sunday pressure won’t. At 30/1, it’s hard to get excited for a player still hunting his first win since the 2022 BMW. OAD? I get it. Outright? Not this guy again… though if the villain ever flips the script, it probably looks exactly like this.
Matt Fitzpatrick
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 100! exclude GIR (103), APP 150175 (140), APP 175200 (160), PROX (133), APP AVG (106), BOB (119), BOB 175200 (153), P4 (124), ER1 (133)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 150175, APP 175200, PROX, BOB 175200; Top 25: APP 200+, PUTT, BOB 200+, P5, ER2
SG Gains: OTT 1/3, APP 2/3, ARD 3/3, PUTT 2/3 (No SG for Alfred Dunhill start)
FORM: 1/32/21/5
Amex Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 10/15/29/MC
Insights: Matty Fitz is a guy that has the golf-betting world’s attention right now, and we agree with the overarching sentiment that he is destined for big things this year if he can stay healthy. The beginning of last season was tough for Matt, as he finished in the Top 25 just thrice in his first 11 events, failed to crack any Top 20 in that span, and was cut 4 times if you include the Zurich. Then, he showed some life with a T-8 at the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow and rode that momentum all the way through the fall. After that result, he made every single cut in the 15 events he played, including 8 Top 10s, and capped it off with a win on the DP World Tour in mid-November — where in beat Rory in a playoff. In this stretch of great golf, his irons have been dialed and his putter has been a weapon, which are 2 of the most important pieces for success at this course. The only issue is that he has never played this event, nor did he play in Hawaii last week, which has been a key trend for success at this event — albeit with 2 Hawaii events in the past instead of 1 like this year. If you can get past the debutant thing, and the fact that this is his first tournament of the PGA season, then 40/1 is extreme value given the way Fitz ended the 2025 season. Probably better to be early than late on Fitzy, especially at these types of numbers.
Kurt Kitayama
Odds: +5500
Stats: Top 100! exclude SCR (117), PUTT (148), P3 (101)
Rank: Top 75 exclude PUTT; Top 25: TG, OTT, DD, OTT/DD AVG, APP, APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P4, P5, ER2
SG Gains: OTT 3/3, APP 3/3, ARD 3/3, PUTT 0/3 (No SG for Baycurrent start)
FORM: 40/15/48/19
Amex Results: 58/MC (2 of 7 Rds in 60s; Low: 67)
Comp Results: 8/9/23/49/MC/MC/MC
Insights: We went full exposure to Kitty last week and the optimism was justified early after the Thursday 65. The Friday 69 cooled things off a bit, and the Saturday 73 made it clear this one wasn’t going to be a sweat. The bigger takeaway is the putter going cold, something that’s been a swing factor for Kurt and worth monitoring closely. That points us toward faster-green setups where ball striking can separate — Bay Hill immediately comes to mind, especially given his win there in 2023. With his shaky history here and, as Rahm put it, this being more of a “putting contest,” this isn’t the spot to press. No thanks this week, but absolutely a name to circle again come March.
Robert MacIntyre
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 75!!! exclude DD (92), PROX (94), BOB 200+ (84), ER1 (94)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: TG, APP, APP 150175, APP 200+, APP AVG, PUTT, BOB 150175, BOB AVG, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 4/12/8/9
Amex Results: MC (71-69-71, 2024)
Comp Results: 6/MC
Insights: One of our fades of the week last week in Hawaii, Robert MacIntyre made us look pretty smart after posting a 71 in Round 2, especially after showcased a bad attitude and snapped his putter in frustration — as he lost 2 combined strokes on the greens after the first 2 days of the event, in addition to losing almost a full stroke on approach in Round 2. However, Bobby turned it around by finishing the weekend with a 67 in Round 3 and a round-best 63 on Sunday, making us sweat or perfect Fade of the Week run dating back to when we first started doing those last year. He ultimately finished 4th, continuing his run of great golf, in which he’s finished Top 12 or better in 5 straight events and Top 20 in 7 straight. Despite the poor Round 2 performance on the greens, his putter has been relatively hot, gaining about 9 strokes with the flat stick in his last 3 events (Sony, Hero, DPWT Jumeirah). When he’s on, he’s tough to beat, and he fits a lot of trends that we are factoring into our handicaps this week. However, he has just 1 star at this event, which was a missed cut in 2024 in which he lost over 2 strokes on approach and more than 2.5 strokes on the greens. That tidbit leaves us a bit trepidatious to back him at 25/1 this week, especially considering some of his best results come on more difficult courses. This week’s venue certainly isn’t difficult, so we’re likely looking elsewhere for outright exposure.
Sepp Straka
Odds: +4500
Stats: Top 75!!! exclude DD (141), OTT/DD AVG (97), ARD (119), SCR (96), ARD/SCR AVG (108), ER1 (76)
Rank: Top 75 exclude DD; Top 25: TG, APP, GIR, APP 150175, APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, BA, P3, P5, ER2
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 3/30/17/52
Amex Results: 1/49/4/MC (10 of 15 Rds in 60s; Low: 64 twice)
Comp Results: 15/29/43/66/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Last year’s AmEx champion returns to defend his crown this week after the Clubhouse cashed in on him at 50/1. His results here have been a mixed bag since he first debuted here in 2019, as he’s finished 1st, 49th, MC, 4th, MC in his 5 starts here. However, he was very good with his putter in 4 of those 5 starts, gaining over 2 strokes on the greens in each of those 4. In order for him to be in the mix again this week, he has to pair that awesome putting success with elite ball-striking just like he did in last year’s win and in his 4th place finish here in 2020. For reference, he gained over 3.5 strokes ball striking last year and more than 7 strokes ball striking in 2020. His last start was at the Hero in December, where he was in the mix to win before ultimately finishing 3rd, which is a mild concern if you weight Tournament Trends heavily this week. In the past, he always played in Hawaii ahead of this event, but he chose not to this year. To counter that point, Sepp has been absolutely outstanding on the Stadium Course here — the hardest of the 3 courses — with 5 of 7 rounds in the 60s, all between 64 and 67. His upside is certainly there, especially as a 2-time winner last year. We certainly couldn’t talk you off him at this price, though we would probably prefer the outright to be paired with an each-way or placement bet so you can cash in on a great result even if he doesn’t win.
Davis Thompson
Odds: +7000
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 200+ (140), SCR (127), PUTT (152), BA (113), P3 (101)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 200+, SCR, PUTT; Top 25: TG, OTT, OTT/DD AVG, GIR, APP 150175, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 1/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 25/MC/21/19
Amex Results: 51/21/2 (11 of 12 Rds in 60s; Low: 62)
Comp Results: 5/12/15/35/36/MC
Insights: DT is one of the more interesting reads on the board this week. The layoff since late November is notable, and the recent approach numbers haven’t been pretty, but there are enough course-specific positives here to justify a measured buy. La Quinta has treated him well, especially with the putter, and the approach play has flashed upside in this event, most notably last year. We’ve seen him contend here before, and the path is pretty clear: if the flat stick cooperates, the irons are capable of snapping back to an elite level. At 70/1, this feels like a fair entry point, with matchups and a Top 30 as the prudent way to gain exposure rather than going all-in. Calm optimism, not blind faith.