2026 The American Express - Player Deep Dives
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Legend:
Odds - Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Last Season Stats
Rank: Based on Last Season Stats Rank in this Field
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Tournament Results: Finishes at The American Express
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: TPC Scottsdale, TPC Summerlin & Trinity Forest Golf Club
Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +300
Stats: Top 25!!!! excludeDD (44)
Rank: Top 10!!! exclude DD (26), OTT/DD AVG (12), ARD (11), PUTT (16)
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 4/1/4/1
Amex Results: 17/11/25/3 (13 of 16 Rds in 60s; Low: 64)
Comp Results: 1/1/3/7/25/35/74/MC/MC/MC
Insights: The man, the myth, the legend…Scottie Scheffler is back. Making his first start of the season, Scottie returns to La Quinta Country Club for the first time since 2024 — where he has been somewhat mortal compared to his baseline on Tour of late. He has finished in the Top 10 just once in his 5 starts here dating back to 2020, but how much does that really matter now? We would argue probably not much. This guy has finished in the Top 8 or better in every tournament he has played since the Players in March of 2025, so the form is absolutely not in question. Could he be rusty having played in just 1 event since September? Sure…but it’s Scottie we’re talking about here. Every time you try to count him out over the past couple of years — whether due to price or a potentially poor course fit — he seems to find himself at the top of the leaderboard anyway. Having said that, while 3/1 seems like a very fair price in this field, this tournament has been known to be a long shot’s paradise, so we aren’t feeling a need to rush to bet him at this number. The method of attack is relatively simple from our eyes, if you want to deploy a single-barrel approach this week, it’s hard to talk anyone off Scottie at any course, especially if Rory isn’t in the field, but if you want to sprinkle a bunch of long shots this week, then it’s probably best to avoid Scottie outright and attack his round matchups/3-balls instead.
Ludvig Aberg
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 100! exclude GIR (114), ARD (129), ARD/SCR AVG (105), BA (108), P3 (131), ER1 (111), ER2 (130)
Rank: Top 75 exclude ARD, P3; Top 25: OTT, DD, OTT/DD AVG, APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB 175200, BOB AVG
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 3/23/20/21
Amex Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 13
Insights: The 26-year-old opens 2026 in a steady spot after finishing 2025 with eight straight Top 25s, capped by a 3rd at the DP World Tour Championship where a closing 66 left him one shot shy of a playoff. This is new territory at La Quinta, which adds some uncertainty, but the form is real. At 25/1, the number is fair for the 18th-ranked player in the world and almost certainly shorter next week at Torrey. No need to force it—calm confidence, respect the unknowns, and an overall outlook that 2026 shapes up as a strong year with wins and a potential first major incoming.
Russell Henley
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 100! exclude DD (172), OTT/DD AVG (133), BOB 175200 (102), BOB 200+ (173)
Rank: Top 75 exclude DD, OTT/DD AVG, BOB 200+; Top 25: TG, APP, GIR, APP 150175, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB, BOB 150175, BA, P3, P4, ER1, ER2
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 19/19/2/15
Amex Results: 14/MC/MC/MC/49/56 (5 last 16 Rds in 60s; Low: 65)
Comp Results: 10/15/16/21/24/27/30/33/35/37/59/67/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: The Russ Bus drives its way to the American Express for the first time since 2022, when he finished T-14 despite losing over 1.5 strokes on the greens. That result was the first time he finished in the Top 45 of this event in 7 starts, which sparks a bit of concern. However, his form is much better than his course history, as Russ has finished Top 20 or better in every event since missing the cut at the PGA Championship in May (9 events). That includes his T-19 finish last week in Hawaii, which is a crucial aspect ahead of the AmEx. We like guys this week that played in Hawaii already, even if they missed the cut, as they were at least able to get the competitive juices flowing again prior to this event (check out our Trends section in the Monday newsletter for more on this). Ultimately, given his poor course history and the success of long shots at this event, we’re not inclined to bet Henley outright this week, but a placement bet on Top 20 at plus-odds is mighty appealing if you want some exposure to the Bus.
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