2026 The American Express - Patio Preview, Key Stats, Tournament Trends & Early Models
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Patio Preview
La Quinta, California
And just like that, the PGA Tour is back in full swing. After just one week in Hawaii, we are off to the mainland to start the California swing at the American Express (formerly the Bob Hope Classic for you old heads out there). This one is a weird one: 3 courses, 54-hole cut, non-celebrity amateurs playing alongside the pros, Shotlink/cameras only on the Stadium course, the list goes on. Frankly, we wouldn’t be surprised to see this tournament phased out when the PGA moves to a condensed schedule, but I guess we’ll see. Here’s your fair warning: tweet tweet, it’s a birdie fest out there this week! Not particularly our favorite set up, but hey, at least golf is back, right? Let’s get into the Patio Preview.
3 courses: La Quinta Country Club, Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA West, Pete Dye Stadium Course
The Stadium Course is where the cameras and Shotlink data will be. This is where the final round will be played as well, so at most, the players will have 2 rounds here.
Full field of 156 players
Top 65 and ties make the cut after 3 rounds
Greens: Poa Trivialis overseed (Bermuda dormant this time of year)
11.5-12 on Stimpmeter
Easy to putt here
Stadium Course
All SG data will come from this course
Par 72, roughly 7,200 yards (10th shortest)
Pete Dye design with recent renovations to the greens and bunkers by Tim Liddy (enlarged and resodded, bunkers reshaped and flatter)
90 bunkers, 7 holes with water in play
Toughest of the 3 courses
Fairways around 35 yards wide (about average)
Greens about 7,000 sq ft (9th largest)
4 Par 5s
2 590+ yards
Par 4s are “less-than-driver” holes for the most part
Almost half of the approach shots 125-200, especially if players are not aggressive off the tee
Par 3s most challenging compared to P4 and P5
Sand saves most challenging ARG aspect
Rough is non-penal around the greens
Nicklaus Tournament Course
Par 72, roughly 7,150 yards (7th shortest)
Jack Nicklaus design
78 bunkers, 6 holes with water
Fairways around 33-34 yards wide
Greens about 5,500 sq ft (13th smallest)
2nd-easiest course of 44 tracked PGA Tour courses
Last 3 years, playing about 3.5 strokes under par
3 of 4 Par 5s are under 550 yards
No Par 4s over 465 yards
Par 3s are most difficult here
La Quinta Country Club
Par 72, roughly 7,050 yards (very short)
Frank Hughes/Lawrence Hughes design with Damian Pascuzzo tweaks
82 Bunkers, 7 holes with water hazards
Fairways around 33-34 yards wide
Greens about 4,800 sq ft (4th smallest)
Easiest course on PGA Tour of 44 tracked courses
About 3 strokes under par since 2021
Par 3s again most difficult here
No Par 4 is longer than 470 yards
Recent Tournament History
2025: Sepp Straka -25 (65-64-64-70); 2 Stroke Victory over Justin Thomas
2024: Nick Dunlap -29 (64-65-60-70); 1 Stroke Victory over Christiaan Bezuidenhout
2023: Jon Rahm -27 (64-64-65-68); 1 Stroke Victory over Davis Thompson
2022: Hudson Swafford -23 (70-65-66-64); 2 Stroke Victory over Tom Hoge
2021: Si Woo Kim -23 (66-68-67-64); 1 Stroke Victory over Patrick Cantlay
2020: Andrew Landry -26 (66-64-65-67); 2 Stroke Victory over Abraham Ancer
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Key Stats
Tier 1
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Shots Gained: Putting (Poa Trivialis)
Greens-in-Regulation %
Birdie-or-Better %
Bogey Avoidance
Tier 2
Good Drive %
Overall Proximity
Going-for-Green - Hit Green %
Par 5 BOB %
Par 4 BOB %
Par 3 scoring
Tier 3
Strokes Gained Total: Very easy - Easy Courses
Strokes Gained Total: Very short - Short Courses
Approach 50-100 yards
Approach 100-150 yards
Approach 150-200 yards
Strokes Gained Putting: Inside 10 feet (Poa Trivialis)
Sand Saves
Champ’s Course Comps
TPC Scottsdale
TPC Summerlin
Trinity Forest Golf Club
Last 6 American Express Tournament Trends
Odds
0-25: 2023
26-50:
51-100: 2025, 2021
101+: 2024, 2022, 2020
Winner’s Strokes Behind Leader By Round
R1: 5/6 (83%) within 2 shots (0/6 led)
R2: 5/6 (83%) within 2 shots (0/6 led)
R3: 6/6 (100%) within 3 shots (5/6 led)
Winner’s Lead-In Form
5/6 (83%) played in Hawaii prior to their Win
4/6 (67%) made the cut in their previous start
4/6 (67%) with at a Top 20 finish in their last 4 starts
4/6 (67%) made the cut in Hawaii in their prior start to their Win
3/6 (50%) with a Top 10 finish in their last 4 starts
2/6 (33%) with a Top 5 finish in their last 4 starts
2/6 (33%) with a WIN in their last 4 starts
Winner’s American Express History
5/6 (83%) with at least 3 prior appearances
5/6 (83%) with a Top 30 finish in their prior 4 starts
3/6 (50%) with a Top 5 finish in their last 4 starts
2/6 (33%) with back to back made cuts in their last 2 starts
1/6 (17%) with a WIN in their last 4 starts (*Swafford won in 5th start)
First Round Leader by Course Split
La Quinta Country Club: 83% (2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020)
Nicklaus Tournament Course: 16% (2025)
Pete Dye Stadium Course: 16% (2020)
*results can include instances where FRL from multiple courses, all get credited with a win.
Early Models
Sammy’s Top 5 Early Week Model - L24 Rounds
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