Legend:
Odds - Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Last Season Stats
Rank: Based on Last Season Stats Rank in this Field
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Tournament Results: Finishes at the Sony Open in Hawaii
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Austin Country Club, Colonial Country Club & Harbour Town Golf Links
Ben Griffin
Odds: +1900
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 150175 (121), PROX (150), BOB 150175 (139)
Rank: Top 75 exclude PROX, BOB 150175; Top 25: TG, APP, GIR, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BA, P3, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/3, APP 3/3, ARD 2/3, PUTT 2/3 (No SG for WWT start)
FORM: 1/32/2/10
Sony Results: 45/30/12 (8 of 12 Rds in 60s, Low: 62)
Comp Results: 1/31/31/52/MC
Insights: One of the hottest golfers on Tour last year looks to prove that it wasn’t just a fluke. Griffin had some quality finishes early in the season, but he really caught fire after winning the Zurich with Andrew Novak. In the 17 non-Ryder-Cup events since that Zurich win, Griffin missed the cut just 3 times (one immediately following the win, which is understandable) and finished outside the Top 20 just twice outside of those missed cuts. Outside of those results, he won at Colonial in May and at El Cardonal in November, along with a couple 2nd place finished at the Memorial and the Procore. Has been a top-20 machine really for the better part of 6+ months, but again, will it carry over to this year, specifically this week on the heels of getting married in December? Sub-20, the price really isn’t all that appealing for me to bank on BG continuing his run, but I’m not exactly doubting his talents either. Will use this week as a datapoint rather than a betting opportunity, especially given his good-but-not-great results at this event. -S
Russell Henley
Odds: +1200
Stats: Top 100! exclude BOB 175200 (102)
Rank: Top 75 across, Top 25: TG, APP, GIR, APP 150175, PROX, APP AVG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB AVG, BA, P3, P4
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 19/2/15/17
Sony Results: 10/4/32/2/11/MC/66/MC/13/MC/17/51/1 (16 last 16 Rds in 60s, Low: 62)
Comp Results: 6/8/9/12/16/17/19/23/26/28/36/58/60/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: The Russ-Bus is back, and the odds-on favorite at that! Like Griffin, Russ ended the season on a Top 20 terror, finishing ahead of that mark in every event he played from June to September. He also found the winners circle at the API with Top 5 finishes at Memorial, Travelers, and East Lake. Issue is, we haven’t seen him in a competitive setting since the Ryder Cup. Now, how much does that layoff affect professional golfers? I guess we shall see. Russ has one of the best course histories on what most consider to be a sticky Waialae layout with 3 Top 10s in his last 4 starts here, and he even won here back when he debuted at this course in 2013. However, since 2021, he at least played Kapaula or a couple fall swing events ahead of every Sony Open start, which obviously is not happening here. I’m expecting some rust, so I won’t be betting him at these odds, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him win, either. -S
J.J. Spaun
Odds: +1800
Stats: Top 75!! exclude ARD (86), BOB 150175 (86)
Rank: Top 75 across, Top 25: TG, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP, GIR, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BA, P3, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/3, APP 2/3, ARD 2/3, PUTT 2/3 (No SG for WWT start)
FORM: 4/11/6/25
Sony Results: 3/MC/12/MC/MC/MC/47/MC (10 last 16 Rds in 60s, Low: 64)
Comp Results: 6/6/9/28/42/63/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/WD/WD
Insights: Another guy who had a great year last year, somewhat out of nowhere. He started the year with a 3rd-place finish at this event, but he really announced his presence with his 2nd place finish at the Cognizant and a 2nd-place, playoff loss to Rory at the Players 2 starts later. His floor was much lower than the aforementioned players, but he went on to win the US Open at Oakmont in surprising fashion (Sam Burns somewhere is still bitching about his puddle situation) and was right in he mix at the St. Jude playoff event as well. All that being said, not a guy I’m trying to bet this week sub-20. His Sony history is made up of more cuts than not, and while 2 of his last 3 here have been Top 12 finishes, I worry most about his putting here. Not the best on Bermuda, and has lost strokes on the greens in 5 of 6 measured events since early August. Price is too rich for my blood, maybe more of a DFS option than a bet. -S
FOLLOW EACH MEMBER OF THE CLUBHOUSE CREW ON THEIR SOCIALS!
Champ - @Champs311
Sammy - @SammyAvBets
More Player Deep Dives below for Bettor Clubhouse Subscribers!
Keegan Bradley
Odds: +2200
Stats: Top 75!! exclude GIR (121), PUTT (114), BOB (101), BOB 175200 (113), BOB AVG (95), P3 (86)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP 150175, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 13/7/17/44
Sony Results: 6/2/MC/12/MC/12/29/39/MC/MC/49/13/68 (13 last 16 Rds in 60s, Low: 63)
Comp Results: 2/18/28/32/35/36/40/44/48/55/MC/MC
Insights: Coming off the Skins win, Keegan jumped out fast in Round 1 at the Hero but couldn’t quite keep pace relative to being the 4th-lowest number on the board. Still, he sits comfortably inside the Top 10 in a full-field event, which feels fair. He ranks 9th in this field on Bermuda, the ball-striking remains a constant, and as always, it comes down to whether the flat stick shows up. It’s not a full-send spot given the uneven iron play since the Travelers win—but here’s the Captain America case: three shots from the playoff last year, runner-up in 2024, fresh confidence from the Skins win, and a guy you trust when the flag’s on his back and the pressure’s on late Sunday. At 22/1, Keegan with a chance on the back nine feels like the right kind of belief bet. -C
Lee Hodges
Odds: +10000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude OTT (92), APP 150175 (89), PUTT (84), BOB 150175 (84), BOB 175200 (108), BOB AVG (85)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: TG, APP, GIR, APP 175200, APP AVG, BS, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BA, P3, P4
SG Gains: OTT 1/2, APP 2/2, ARD 1/2, PUTT 1/2 (No SG for Bermuda & WWT starts)
FORM: 4/61/40/MC
Sony Results: 10/MC (5 of 6 Rds in 60s, Low: 64)
Comp Results: 12/29/35/41/53/58
Insights: Lee Hodges hasn’t teed it up much lately, with his last start being a 4th at the RSM the Sunday before Thanksgiving. Since October he’s played six times, but only three of those events even have strokes-gained data, and that RSM finish stands as his lone Top 5 of 2025. The quiet positive: just one missed cut in that span (Bank of Utah), showing a steady floor. The clubhouse has been buyers on Hodges for a while, and with a Top 10 here last year, this sets up as a classic buy-low spot—especially at a triple-digit price. A Top 20 ticket makes sense, and he’s a strong addition to your player pool this week. -C
Kurt Kitayama
Odds: +4500
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 150175 (83), SCR (117), PUTT (148), P3 (101)
Rank: Top 75 exclude PUTT, Top 25: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/3, APP 3/3, ARD 3/3, PUTT 1/3 (No SG for Baycurrent start)
FORM: 15/48/19/9
Sony Results: 37/24/73/MC (8 of 14 Rds in 60s, Low: 62)
Comp Results: 5/22/29/33/40/MC
Insights: Kitty ended the year on a strong note, starting with his Top 5 at John Deere, which then turned into a win at 3M and a Top 10 at the St. Jude. His statistical profile is great, specifically on Approach, where he’s gained strokes in every measured event except the BMW Championship dating all the back to April. Over his last 24 rounds, he’s 14th in the field in APP 150-200 and 6th in APP 200+, which pairs very nicely with top-10 marks in APP, T2G, and BOB in that span. The issue with him will always be the putting. He’s a negative on the greens, although Bermuda seems to be his “best” surface. His course history isn’t exactly ideal, either: 4 starts here since 2022 and has yet to crack a Top 20. I see the upside with him, but given questions with putter and course, it would be a Top 20 placement or pass on Kitty this week. -S
Robert MacIntyre
Odds: +2200
Stats: Top 75!! exclude PROX (94)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: TG, APP 150175, APP AVG, PUTT, BOB 150175, BOB AVG
SG Gains: OTT 2/3, APP 3/3, ARD 2/3, PUTT 2/3 (No SG for Alfred Dunhill start)
FORM: 12/8/9/1
Sony Results: 53/52 (6 of 8 Rds in 60s, Low: 66)
Comp Results: 6/9/35/59/66/MC
Insights: The return of the (Bobby) Mac! Admittedly, my model doesn’t love him this week, and he hasn’t been very good at Sony or at Waialae comp courses, but he’s one of the few guys that played frequently throughout the fall. In fact, he won the Alfred Dunhill in early October and followed that up with 2 other Top 10s on the DPWT and a 12th at the Hero. Felt that fall success warranted a mention, but overall not a place I’m looking to invest in Bobby at sub-25 odds, as he is not in the top 20 in the field in any of my key stats over his last 24 PGA rounds. This may be controversial, but I’d rather take Collin at similar odds over Bobby this week. I guess I’m talking myself into a FOTW selection here - check out tomorrow’s newsletter to find out. -S
Matt McCarty
Odds: +5500
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP (116)
Rank: Top 75 across, Top 25: APP 175200, SCR, PUTT, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, P3
SG Gains: OTT 1/2, APP 1/2, ARD 0/2, PUTT 2/2 (No SG AUS Open & Baycurrent starts)
FORM: 8/3/14/43
Sony Results: 65 (69-66-69-72, 2025)
Comp Results: MC
Insights: Matt rolls into Hawaii with a solid run of form: six straight made cuts, four Top 20s, and a Top 5 at the Bank of Utah. The profile screams boom-or-bust, which fits a 2024 PGA Tour winner who’s shown real upside. Since June, the numbers are strong—12 starts, nine cuts made, seven Top 25s, four Top 10s, and two Top 5s—but the game has leaned heavily on the putter. To truly contend again in 2026, the irons need to take a step forward. His debut here flashed briefly with a Friday 66 before settling for 65th, and a 53rd at The Sentry didn’t move the needle in a small field. For now, the clubhouse is watching, not buying—this feels more like a Florida Swing story than a Hawaii one. -C
Collin Morikawa
Odds: +2200
Stats: Top 75!! exclude ARD (113), SCR (83), ARD/SCR AVG (98), PUTT (156), BOB 150175 (123)
Rank: Top 75 exclude PUTT, BOB 150175; Top 25: TG, OTT, OTT/TD AVG, APP, APP 150175, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB 175200, P3
SG Gains: OTT 3/3, APP 2/3, ARD 1/3, PUTT 0/3 (No SG for Baycurrent start)
FORM: 14/43/19/33
Sony Results: 7/21 (6 of 8 Rds in 60s, Low: 64)
Comp Results: 2/4/7/9/9/14/26/28/39/31/40/54/56/64
Insights: Here we go again… 2026, Year of the Horse, and somehow we’re right back asking if this is the season Collin Morikawa starts lifting trophies and draining the putts that keep rounds alive. Hawaii has always been a love-hate relationship for Collin: four Top 5s at Kapalua (two runner-ups), 75% of his rounds at Waialae in the 60s, and yet… zero wins on the islands. He hasn’t played the Sony since 2021, and we’ve only seen him once since the Bethpage Ryder Cup loss, though the Sunday 63 at Baycurrent was his lowest Sunday of 2025 by four shots—even better than his 67 at The Sentry. The win is coming this year, and the post-win presser will be must-see TV. Will it be this week? Possible. But no one’s wrong for laughing, shaking their head, and waiting for the Farmers instead. -C
Alex Smalley
Odds: +9000
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 175200 (118), BOB 175200 (127), P3 (101)
Rank: Top 75 across, Top 25: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, BS, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB AVG, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 0/2, APP 1/2, ARD 1/2, PUTT 0/2 (No SG for Bermuda & Baycurrent starts)
FORM: 62/3/MC/4
Sony Results: 16/MC/MC/MC (7 of 10 Rds in 60s, Low: 64)
Comp Results: 27/40/MC/MC/MC/WD
Insights: I brought Smalley into the conversation during the Fall Swing, and he backed it up with a 4th at Baycurrent and a 3rd at Bermuda. The challenge is both events lacked ShotLink, making it tough to quantify how sharp the performance truly was. When you isolate the starts with strokes-gained data, the charts tell a less flattering story—plenty of red and uneven ball-striking. His history at Waialae is mixed, highlighted by one Top 20 alongside three missed cuts, which likely mirrors how most will approach him this week. That said, Smalley has consistently flirted with Top 20s across the Hawaiian, West Coast, and Florida swings. At 90/1, there are worse darts to throw. Trust the process, trust the clubhouse vibes, and make sure you have at least some exposure to Smalley in your player pool. -C