2026 RBC Heritage - Patio Preview, Key Stats, Tournament Trends & Early Models
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Sammy’s Masters Round 4 Recap
Sunday at the Masters is always such a special day, and this year was no different. Fresh off a historic, grand slam performance last year, Rory followed it up with another win this year — becoming just the 4th player ever to win at Augusta in consecutive years. Let’s reflect on that. McIlroy is now 1 of 6 golfers in history to win all 4 majors and 1 of 4 golfers to win in back-to-back Masters. Even if Rory never tees it up again, he would go down as one of the top-5 golfers of all time — at just 36 years old. There’s no debate at this point.
There were plenty of highlights on Sunday, including Scottie’s -4 to cap off the first bogey-free weekend at the Masters since 1942, but none other than Rory’s over-the-tree approach shot on 18 after nearly driving it in the neighboring fairway. The circus shot was almost TGL-esqe in a way; it’s not often you see major champions having to hit it out of the pine straw over a tree to secure a victory.
What happens now? Will Rory withdraw from Harbour Town again? Probably. Will he hit a similar downturn like last year after his Masters win? I guess we shall see. As for Scottie, don’t be surprised to see him get hot again and hopefully ride that momentum into a grand-slam opportunity at the US Open. Outside of those two, we remain bullish on Cameron Young, and we’re keeping tabs on Russ Henley, Max Homa and Xander Schauffele — all of whom impressed on Sunday.
Is Tyrell Hatton a big-game hunter now? His LIV form was meh, but he earned his 3rd straight Top 15 in Augusta and 4th Top-20 finish in his last 5 majors this weekend. Something to monitor for OAD in the remaining 3 majors.
Is Collin Morikawa healthy? If not, he had quite a round on Sunday and deserves some kudos in that regard. If he is, then look for him to make some noise as soon as next week at the iron-heavy Harbour Town — one of our favorite events to watch and bet, even if it is immediately after the Masters.
On to Hilton Head!
Field List
Patio Preview
Harbour Town Golf Links
Hilton Head, SC
Signature Event
82 players, no cut
Pete Dye design
Par 71
7,200-7,250 yards
Greens: Bermudagrass (Poa Trivalis overseed)
2nd-smallest greens on Tour
Short, tree-lined course that values second shot and short game
Driver usage greater than 13% below Tour average
Driving Accuracy, Good Drive % higher than Tour average
Nearly 50% of Approach shots last 5 years come from 150-200
Scrambling rate 10% higher than Tour average last 2 years
Fewer 3-putts than Tour average
Birdie-to-Bogey ratio 1.835 last 2 years (Tour average 1.41)
4 Par 3s
All 185+ yards and play over par
2 hardest holes (#14, #4)
Both with greater than a 4% double rate
11 Par 4s
Ranging 332-473 yards
6 of 11 play at or below par
3 Par 5s
All 550-600 yards
2 easiest holes and 3 of easiest 4
#2 and #5 birdie rate of greater than 48% and eagle rate of greater than 2.5%
Less than 6% bogey rate
Scoring on these holes is essential
Recent Tournament History
2025: Justin Thomas -17 (61-69-68-68); Playoff Victory over Andrew Novak
2024: Scottie Scheffler -19 (69-65-63-68); 3 Stroke Victory over Sahith Theegala
2023: Matt Fitzpatrick -17 (66-70-63-68); Playoff Victory over Jordan Spieth
2022: Jordan Spieth -13 (69-68-68-66); Playoff Victory over Patrick Cantlay
2021: Stewart Cink -19 (63-63-69-70); 4 Stroke Victory over Grillo & Varner III
2020: Webb Simpson -22 (65-65-68-64); 1 Stroke Victory over Abraham Ancer
2019: C.T. Pan -12 (71-65-69-67); 1 Stroke Victory over Matt Kuchar
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Key Stats
Tier 1
Strokes Gained: Approach
Driving Accuracy
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa Triv)
Par 5 Birdie-or-Better %
Tier 2
Good Drive%
Distance from Edge of Fairway
Scrambling
ARG Proximity
Overall Proximity to Hole
Approach 150-200
3-Putt Avoidance (Poa Triv)
Birdie-or-Better %
Bogey Avoidance
Tier 3
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (Pete Dye design)
Strokes Gained: Par 3
Strokes Gained: Par 4 Birdie-or-Better%
Champ’s Course Comps
Austin Country Club
Sea Island Golf Club (Seaside Course)
Colonial Country Club
RBC Heritage Tournament Trends
Odds
0-20: 2025, 2024
21-50: 2023, 2022, 2020
51-100:
100+: 2021, 2019
Winner’s Strokes Behind Leader By Round
R1: 7/7 (100%) within 6 shots (1/7 led)
R2: 6/7 (86%) within 4 shots (3/7 led)
R3: 7/7 (100%) within 3 shots (4/7 led)
Winner’s Lead-In Form
6/7 (86%) with at least 2 Top 35 finishes in their last 4 starts
5/7 (71%) played in the Masters Tournament the week prior (4/5 made the cut)
4/7 (57%) made the cut in their last start
4/7 (57%) with at least 1 Top 10 finish in their last 4 starts
3/7 (43%) with at least 1 Top 5 finish in their last 4 starts
2/7 (29%) with a WIN in their last 4 starts
Winner’s RBC Heritage History
7/7 (100%) with at least 1 prior appearance at the event
7/7 (100%) with a Top 25 finish in a prior appearance
6/7 (83%) made the cut in their prior appearance to their Win
5/7 (71%) with at least 5 prior appearances at the event
5/7 (71%) with a Top 10 finish in a prior appearance
3/7 (43%) with at least 4 straight made cuts at the event prior to their WIN
1/7 (14%) with a Top 10 finish in their last appearance at the event
1/7 (14%) with a WIN in a prior appearance
First Round Leader Tee Splits
AM: 57% (2025, 2022, 2020, 2019)
PM: 43% (2024, 2023, 2021)
*results can include instances where FRL from both AM/PM, both get credited with a win.
Early Models
Course History
