2026 PGA Championship - Round 1 Recap, Round 2 Buys, Sells and Bets
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Champ’s Clubhouse Thoughts on Round 1
The opening round at the PGA Championship felt like exactly what you want from a major: enough birdies out there to reward elite golf, but every loose swing still carried consequences. The course presented as gettable on TV, but really only for players keeping it in the fairway and below the hole on these greens. Cooler weather and tougher hole locations, especially on the closing stretch, made scoring feel harder than the leaderboard may suggest. Coming into the week I thought the winning score would land somewhere in the 12-to-15-under range, but after Round 1—and with firmer conditions expected through the weekend—today may end up being one of the better scoring windows we see. The setup gave off more U.S. Open vibes than a typical PGA Championship, and honestly, I’m here for it.
Scottie looked relaxed and even laughing which is a scary sight on a Thursday. The patience, control, and lack of wasted shots will keep him on the first page which won’t surprise anyone. Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau will grab the headlines for the wrong reasons after slow starts, but way too many names feel well within striking distance on a board where we didn’t see much separation. In majors like this, surviving without your best stuff can matter just as much as going low early. One clean round can completely reshape this leaderboard, and I’m especially interested to see how Scottie attacks the golf course Friday as the clear early pace setter.
A few other names stood out throughout the day. Patrick Reed was the only player in the field without a bogey and finished first in Approach, which fits the type of gritty profile that tends to hang around in difficult conditions. Justin Thomas, who was one of my fades entering the week, looked in complete control early before a couple loose swings coming home cooled off the round. Statistically, Brooks Koepka quietly caught my attention the most: 3rd Tee-to-Green and 3rd in Approach, but 138th in Putting. That’s been the story most of the year for Brooks, but with scoring hovering around even par, an average putting week could immediately put the major champion back into contention.
As Round 1 showed, this won’t be a cakewalk over the next three days. The course is demanding enough to expose mistakes, but fair enough to reward elite execution. Feels like we’re headed toward a true major championship test the rest of the way, strap in.
Curious to see how many players can continue gaining consistently across the bag as conditions toughen through the weekend. The leaders after Friday will likely get the more difficult afternoon wave over the final two rounds, so sustaining those strokes gained numbers will be critical in identifying who’s still around Sunday. Scottie (first career lead/co-lead after Round 1 of a major), Xander, and Rickie were all fairly expected based on recent and season-long form, while Max, Blanchet, and Kaymer were the bigger surprises. Interested to see who can back it up Friday.
Based on how 2026 has gone for these players, it wouldn’t be surprising to see more of the same from Brooks and Chris Kirk heading into Friday. On the other side, I’d expect some bounce-back potential from Sepp Straka and Jason Day, while Patrick Cantlay remains one of the more intriguing names to monitor closely. The ball-striking profile still gives him upside, but there’s at least some hesitation backing him outright considering he landed as Sammy’s fade of the week. It’s also interesting to see Joaquin Niemann back on the first page of a major leaderboard and proving again he can hang with elite competition. That said, I’d lean more toward short-term exposure like Round 2 matchups rather than jumping into a live outright at the current number. Lastly, I did cash on my Spaun 3ball in Round 1 and may just go back for Round 2.
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Round 2 Tee Times
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